We’ve all been there before: stuck racking our brain with how to structure units on a Saturday when 15 plays across 4 sports appear too good to pass up. Let me quiet a myth right here and now: there’s no fixed number of games to play but a bettor should always be cognizant of how much liability is being extended at any given time. I know this seems somewhat counter-intuitive for those just learning the ropes however like every other lesson in sports gambling, it will make sense in time as your experience grows and leads us to the discussion of units: the case for and against flat betting. Bettors talk about unit count all the time to keep tabs on their results. Its an effective way to share with friends and members of the gambling community relative strength of each play without disclosing how much makes up an actual bet. Units should rarely be weighted the same across all sports since every handicapper has his or her strengths and needs to strike from an advantaged position.  The reality of sports betting is the better you become, the harder it is to play large amounts anywhere let alone in the smaller niche markets. However, I digress a bit from my main thesis of trying to make a case for and against the merits of flat betting no matter the sport, no matter the streak, and no matter the strength of the play. You know what it feels like; staring at a game all week you knew was worth way more than just a single play but you didn’t pull the trigger because of “sound money management principles.” Talk to the elite gamblers in the world and they’ll be the first to tell you recognizing...

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Written by Adam Chemerinsky (follow him on twitter @gamblingkings) The first grand slam is about to start and for two weeks there will be plenty of value on the daily betting board. Much like The NCAA tournament where you have 30+ games to choose from in the opening round, be selective! Without overloading you with paralysis by analysis, here are a few betting basics to get you through the open. Chalk Talk: Even if you have never watched a tennis match you probably can figure out that backing Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Roger Federer will be a winning proposition: Only problem is that you will find them in the opening week around –6000 (Djokovic is –6000 first round against Paul Henri Matheiu) and not realistic options for straight betting. Match to watch: Kevin Anderson faces Juan Monaco (the 10 seed). Anderson comes in brimming with confidence after making the finals in Sydney. He possesses all the tools to beat Monaco thanks to a big forehand and strong service game. His goal in Melbourne will be to play first strike tennis against a clay courter who wants to play long rallies and prefers the slower surface. Monaco has an injured hand and has pulled out of his scheduled events so far in 2013 so we should have the makings of a live dog. Betting Options Moneyline: This is the best bet in tennis and for any novice handicapper I would suggest only playing the moneyline. Like any sport where heavy juice is the norm, best practice is to avoid large favorites. You will consistently find big matches at -600 (very common in high profile tennis matches) where you will you have to win 7 in a row without losing one to make money. First round...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) The most famous rivalry in English football returns to our screens this Sunday morning when Manchester United host Liverpool at Old Trafford, kick off 830am EST. The rivalry extgoes way back and this is the 187th meeting of the two sides. The power base has shifted back and forth over time with the reds of Manchester currently leading with 73 wins, 62 victories to Liverpool and 51 draws. United go into the game in a very confident mood as they lead the table. Liverpool fans will approach the contest with renewed optimism as the recent upturn in their results gives them hope of obtaining a result in this fixture.  United have an impressive seven point lead at the top of the table over city neighbours Manchester City. With City travelling to Arsenal later on in the day any further advantage gained by United may almost hand them the title this Sunday if they can add to their 7 pt advantage. Liverpool has been the butt of many a joke so far this season with their inconsistent performances. Despite poor defeats against both Aston Villa and Stoke in December they are still 8th in the EPL table. They remain well within striking distance of a European spot for next season, maybe even a coveted Champions League position. Brendan Rodgers appears to be moving things in the correct direction at Anfield but to progress to the next level his side must learn how to beat teams in the top half of the standings. All eight of their EPL wins this season have come against sides in the bottom half of the league. In fact only 5 of their 31 total points come against the top half of the draw. Throughout...

Written by Justin Zovas This weekend’s slate of divisional games presents three of four matchups where the two teams are meeting for a second time this season.  With that, here is a powerful trend that favors the team that lost the regular season contest:  Since 2002, when two teams are meeting for the second time (or even the third) that season in the playoffs, the team that lost the previous matchup is 44-26-1 (.629) ATS.   Of course, trends are only as valuable as the rationale that supports them. This trend can be explained logically by understanding three angles: Motivation: The team that lost the regular season matchup may be the more motivated squad.  The incentive for revenge is a very influential factor on the outcome in sports or any competition for that matter.  At the same time, the team that was victorious earlier in the year may take its opponent lightly.  The team still wants to win, but it may prepare with less vigor and not with enough focus.  Any slight motivational edge in a league with such parity can result in a significant difference between the projected and actual final score of NFL games. Market Overreaction: We as humans are heavily influenced by what has happened most recently.  This phenomenon, known as recency bias, captures the idea that the most recent events, patterns, and trends dominate our predictions of future outcomes.  With public sentiment more prevalent than ever in this playoff market, bettors tend to overact to past results and expect them to continue into the future.  This market overreaction diminishes the value on the team that won the regular season game and creates line value for the team that lost the first matchup Coaching Adjustments:  Because the teams are meeting for the...

Written by Justin Zovas 32,882 plays, 256 games, and 17 weeks later, the field to determine the 2013 Super Bowl Champion has been dwindled down to 12 teams.  The past four months of NFL action has produced a sample size of data that, when analyzed appropriately, can provide a wealth of information and go a long way in evaluating the strength and abilities of the remaining teams vying for a championship. An effective method to predict future outcomes is to study past results of similar situations.  Thus, the goal is to better understand the anatomy of a Super Bowl champion by identifying meaningful shared statistical characteristics of those teams.  In this new age NFL where quarterback play and the passing game is as important as ever, here are three key statistical parameters each of the past four champs fall under. Pass Efficiency Ratio greater than 1.20:  The ratio compares net yards per passing attempt and net yards per passing attempt allowed (NY/PA divided by NY/PA allowed).  A ratio equal to one indicates for every one yard an offense gains per pass attempt, the defense allowed one yard per pass attempt.  In today’s aerial league, this performance measure captures arguably the two most important team qualities; the ability to pass the football and the ability to stop the pass. This season only three teams, the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks, boast a pass efficiency ratio greater than 1.20. Positive Turnover Margin:  This statistic is the total number of forced turnovers minus the total number of turnovers committed.  The ability to take care of the football and force the opposing offense into turnovers remains a crucial determinate in the outcome of football games.  In 2012 alone, the team that won the turnover battle is 162-42-1 (.794) SU...

Click Here to Listen Breaking down week 17 from both a handicapping and betting perspective. I pride myself on confusing answers to some of Chad’s more straight forward questions. Yes, you’re...

Follow the author @HardwoodHype on twitter Beef ‘O’ Brady’s: Ball State vs. Central Florida  (St. Petersburg, FL; Fri., Dec. 21, 7:30pm) The game: According to the Mayans, this is college football’s swan song: two teams that only the junkies know a thing about, that combined for seven losses, in about as soulless a venue as one could conceive. Thing is, this could actually be a decent game. After an early season blowout loss at Clemson, Ball State righted the ship and rattled of victories in eight of its next 10, rushing for at least 165 yards (behind Jahwan Edwards –1,321 yards and 14 TDs, with a 6.0 average) in each of those wins. The two occasions on which they failed to eclipse this mark coincided with their two conference losses, by two and 12 points, respectively, at Kent State and at home to Northern Illinois, hardly shameful, as those teams were a combined 16-0 in MAC play. The biggest concern facing BSU today is their qb and his recently broken ankle. While probable, we have to wonder how mobile and effective Keith Wenning will be in the pocket when under duress. Central Florida, meanwhile, winners of eight of its first 10 – the two losses came by combined 10 points at Ohio State and at home to Missouri – is led by a 1,000-yard back of its own, Latavius Murray, who also had 14 TDs and gained 1,035 yards on the ground at a 5.8-per-carry clip. However, the Knights are coming off a pair of crushing defeats to Tulsa (23-21 in conference, 33-27 in the C-USA title game), which, despite the early season moral victories, revealed that UCF owed its hot start as much to a marshmallow schedule (Akron, FIU, Southern Mississippi, Memphis, SMU,...

Because Adam Kramer is more creative this time of year, I stole his write-up to introduce the pod. I can only hope he doesn’t call me the Lynn Hoppes of the sports betting world and accuse me of plagiarism. The On the Line Podcast is back is back, and the bowl season is in out sights. Because there are so many games to discuss, here’s the deal. First, you need to sign up for our bowl pick ‘em contest over at Wagerminds. See how you stack up against Team OTL, and have a shot at winning the MONSTER prizes discussed in this week’s discussion. If you’re wondering what our picks are for the bowl season, you’ve come to the right place. This week we discuss all bowl games up until January 1st, and we’ll be hitting on the rest next week. Consider it the perfect break away from your loved ones. If the widget below doesn’t show, you can listen to the podcast here. Cheers and Happy Holidays,...

Written by Bruce Friedman (follow him on twitter @notthefakeBruce) BUY:   Michigan State (12-18, @ Bowling Green, 12-22, Texas) Calling Michigan St inconsistent to start the year would be an understatement.  They now travel to face Bowling Green who has done well facing the teams on their inferior early-season schedule.  Bowling Green, even on their home court, will not have a chance against the Spartans in this match-up.  After their tilt with BG tonight, MSU takes on a Texas team that looks like a shell of their former selves.  Texas simply cannot find their way as it seems no one wants to step up for them in big games whih should continue against Sparty.  Texas plays North Carolina before MSU and that will beat them up for Saturday’s game.   Xavier (12-19 Cincinnati (N), 12-22 Wofford) Last week I had Marshall in my “BUY” section of Market Watch picks because they have not covered a spread all year and were in a prime spot to contend against the undefeated Bearcats.  However Marshall lost their leading scorer for the game and the final score made it look like a blow-out.  Marshall was in that game until the final 5 minutes where they completely fell apart without a go-to man.  I think Cincinnati may trip up here against Xavier and think I was 1 game premature to fade the Bearcats.  After Cincinnati, Xavier faces Wofford and to put it simply, if Xavier beats Cincinnati I believe they will be pumped and continue that momentum and just thrash Wofford.   SELL:   Wyoming (12-18 Denver, 12-21 UC Santa Barbara) Wyoming has the bandwagon chugging along, they are 10-0 SU and 6-1 ATS.  This week however they face Denver who has been atrocious ATS going 1-5, but after...