Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) First things first on a busy EPL weekend of games: A big welcome back to the baseball season and my over-riding thought (bar will my New York Mets get to seventy wins) is how do you MLB cappers do it? Doing stats work like this every single day would put me into early retirement! Anyway, moving on and my snapshot roundup has proved popular previously so below are my brief thoughts on each weekend match up. Reading v Southampton New Reading boss Nigel Adkins hosts his former club for a must win game for Reading. Like women, managers are at their most dangerous when scorned. Southampton isn’t a great team and Adkins knows every chink in their armour as he personally recruited the majority of their roster. Reading are 2-3-2 at home to teams in the bottom half of the EPL whilst the Saints are 2-3-2 on the road to teams in the bottom half of the table. The stats say this will be an evenly fought game so a tricky game from a betting perspective. In view of the ‘Adkins Revenge’ scenario bets should be leaned in favour of the home team. Norwich v Swansea On paper this is to be the dullest game of the week. A functional hard working Norwich side entertain a Swansea side who appear to have gone on their summer holidays already. Norwich have a decent record against sides placed in the top half of the table as they are 3-2-3 at Carrow Road against such opposition. Researching deeper though throws up a stat that could make this a cracker of a game. All three EPL meetings of the sides have cashed an over 3.5 ticket with Norwich registering three...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) The EPL springs back into life this Easter weekend after an international break that has left me thirsting for some high intensity Premiership action.  Weekends following such extended international breaks can often be difficult to read in terms of outright and handicap markets.  The amount of jet setting many Premiership stars have done these last few days will have seriously affected the coaches ability to adequately gameplan.  All these air miles may look good on your credit card statement but not so good for the energy levels in your legs for the last 20 minutes of high octane EPL.  I believe the 3 bets below offer great value for EPL bettors. Whether bet as singles or in a parlay, they should keep you interested and more importantly get you to the window with profit. Swansea v Tottenham Goals definitely look in store at the Liberty Stadium when Spurs travel to Wales looking to get their Champions League qualification hopes back on track. There’s been 48 goals scored in Swansea’s 15 home games so far this campaign whilst Tottenham has been a part of 51 goals in their 15 away games.   The sides have met three times in EPL action with Swansea yet to register a victory. The respective fixture finished all square last season as the teams shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw.  I am cautious about backing Swansea outright moving forward given the apparent attitude of coach Laudrup. Their recent Carling Cup Final win is where the majority of efforts were centred placing limited emphasis on their EPL standing. Before that game Laudrup rested many senior players, giving the indication that he had given up all hope of European qualification via the League route.  With just four...

Special thanks to the team at Spreadepedia for producing a down and dirty look at trends for the round of 16.  If you’re not already following these guys for all of your gambling needs than you’re missing the boat. #2 Miami vs. #3 Marquette – the #2 vs. #3 seed match-up is 6-6 ATS and 7-5 straight up since 2005. – The Over/Under in #2 vs. #3 Sweet 16 match-ups is 10-2. The Over is 6-0 when the total is less than 128. – Marquette is 0-2 ATS and straight up, losing by double digits in their past 2 Sweet 16 appearances. #2 Ohio State vs. #6 Arizona – Ohio State and head coach Thad Motta are 1-3 ATS and 2-2 straight up in the Sweet 16. – #2 vs. #6 Seeds are 2-3-1 ATS and 5-1 Straight Up in the Sweet 16. The Over/Under is 5-1 (3-1 when the o/u is less than 134) #1 Indiana vs. #4 Syracuse – #1 seeds are 13-17 ATS and 23-7 straight up in the Sweet 16. – #4 seeds are 5-8 ATS and 9-4 straight up in the Sweet 16. – Syracuse is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 straight up in the Sweet 16 since 2005. #9 Wichita vs. #13 La Salle – This is the first time a #9 seed has been matched up against a #13 seed in the Sweet 16. – #9 seeds are 0-1 ATS and straight up in the Sweet 16. – #13 seeds are 1-1 ATS and 0-2 straight up in the Sweet 16. –  -4 point favorites are 1-2 ATS and straight up in the Sweet 16. #1 Louisville vs. #12 Oregon –  #1 seeds vs. #12 seeds in the Sweet 16 are 5-1 ATS and 6-0 straight up. –...

Chad and I go through every game of the Sweet 16 talking action, matchups, and overall betting acumen.  Unfortunately he doesn’t offer up his home phone number for me to bug him regularly even after the hoops season is over. CLICK HERE TO...

LVH ODDS TO WIN 2013 MENS NCAA BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT LOUISVILLE 3 INDIANA 9-2 DUKE 8 FLORIDA 5 MIAMI FL 7 KANSAS 12 MICHIGAN ST 12 MICHIGAN 12 OHIO ST 8 SYRACUSE 12 ARIZONA 25 MARQUETTE 50 OREGON 60 WICHITA ST 30 LASALLE 75 FLORIDA GULF COAST 100 ODDS TO WIN EAST REGIONAL   INDIANA 20-21  MIAMI FL 7-4 SYRACUSE 4 MARQUETTE 8 ODDS TO WIN MIDWEST REGIONAL LOUISVILLE 4-7 DUKE 3 MICHIGAN ST 7-2 OREGON 12 ODDS TO WIN SOUTH REGIONAL FLORIDA 5-8 KANSAS 5-2 MICHIGAN 3 FLORIDA GULF COAST 25 ODDS TO WIN WEST REGIONAL OHIO ST 10-11 ARIZONA 2 WICHITA ST 13-4 LASALLE...

We all have methods to try and pick our paper champion before Thursday’s bracket deadline. Best conference? Toughest mascot? Coolest uniforms? Coin flip methods? Neither are entirely correct nor scientific however one man has zeroed in on a few criteria that make pegging the squad to cut down the nets in Atlanta a little easier.  Now about finding the best future prices to bet these teams in an attempt to maximize profits… Enter the official 2013 #Beatthebookie contest by clicking here Compete for cash, Donbest prizes, and merchandise by clicking here Bracket Science was Written by Peter Tiernan and can be found in its entirety here Now that the seeds are announced and the season has played out, we can list our final teams that meet the qualifications that the last dozen champions have possessed: A one, two or three seed Member of a Power conference: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 or SEC Either went to the previous year’s dance or have an All-American Led by a coach with more than five tourney trips and at least one Elite Eight run Averaging more than 73 points per game Allowing fewer than 73 points per game An average scoring margin of at least seven points per game A schedule among the 75 strongest in the country. Only four teams meet all these conditions: Louisville, Kansas, Indiana and Duke. Not a bad collection of teams to run with. I also did two different KenPom tests to determine the champ. My first one was based on offensive and defensively efficiency ranking. I had used the thresholds of 17th in OE and 25th in DE—but I realized these rankings were based against the tourney field and not all 247 D-I teams. So I relaxed the...

Bettors seem to use these terms interchangeably which isn’t correct. Power ratings provide a baseline for bettors and oddsmakers to use before they make their important handicapping decisions. Quick hitting lesson on how the 2 terms are more different than people...

    Since last year was such a success, we’re doing it again this year…put up or shut up time for everyone who wants bragging rights. How do I enter? Create a CBS User ID using your Twitter handle for registration purposes.  This way, people can interact with each other throughout the competition. Click here to enter After you click the link above, you will be routed to the contest home page.  #Beatthebookie will prompt you for a password listed below Vegas2013 Why should I compete? Everyone wants to beat the best gamblers and bookmakers in the world – now’s your chance to put up or shut up and put me in my place!  The pool will be capped so those slow to the party may not make the cut! What can I win?  The coveted Todd’s Take #beatthebookie trophy that will be the talk of the town.  Like in sports, there is no prize for coming in 2nd since we’re not here to dole out youth soccer participation trophies.  Cream will rise and a champion will be crowned. Questions?  Please send all inquiries to...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) This Sunday will see one of the biggest bet games of the season as Tottenham make the trip to Merseyside to take on Liverpool.  The  game will be beamed around the world and bookmakers will be frantically looking to balance their books ahead of kick off for what will be a massively bet fixture. However, just like the prettiest girls at the school disco don’t always make the best wives, the biggest and best games do not make the best bets! Instead, this Sunday we take our betting bank 122 miles North East from Liverpool to St James Park, Newcastle for the match between Newcastle United and Stoke City. Newcastle appear back on track now after a poor start to the season which saw them languishing very low in the EPL table. Coach Pardew has stabilised things in recent weeks and enters this game with two consecutive home wins.  A 3-2 win over Chelsea was followed up by a great come from behind win over Southampton. The home side are 15th in the table but know a win here would almost, barring a miracle, guarantee their EPL survival for next season.  Stoke have been their usual strong self at home but their poor away form, which has plagued them throughout their EPL residence has continued. They appear safe from relegation, currently sitting eleventh, but they have a style of play that when on a bad run could send them back towards the drop zone. Looking at the market prices here the number on the home win is very tempting. Stoke has won just one of fourteen away from home and have lost four straight on their travels. With their two recent home wins and seven...

Written by Justin Zovas (follow him on twitter @JustinZovas) As I watch a college basketball game with friends and casually calculate Louisville’s expected points on a particular possession, I won’t deny it, I’m the weird one.  But for two days this past weekend at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, I was incredibly normal.  For us sports geeks who worship the intersection of quantitative analysis and athletic competition, this was our Super Bowl. Over 2,700 like-minded enthusiasts congregated in the Boston Convention Center to celebrate the strengthening marriage between sports and analytics.  Much to my pleasure, attendees from professionals to students were very approachable and eager to discuss new ideas and theories. One seemingly universal theme throughout the conference that warrants further discussion is the challenge to differentiate processes and outcomes. When the former NFL coach turned ESPN analyst was asked whether the Raven’s aggressive move to perform a fake field goal in the Super Bowl was a smart decision, Herm Edwards responded by asking, “Well, did they win the game?”  Humans, even the most elite decision makers in an industry, have a persistent fixation on outcomes.  In reality, the process in coming to a conclusion or decision is far more important than the outcome.  The merit of a particular decision should be determined by evaluating the process, not the outcome. For example, let’s take gambling against the spread in any sport.  When we pick a side we theoretically have a 50% chance of being correct.  Statistically speaking, the outcomes of 50/50 propositions have the greatest variability.  That is, the closer an event is to 50/50, the more random the results are.  We can perform a spot-on analysis of a match-up and there is still a good probability that the game plays out different...

Written by Matt Lindeman (follow him on twitter @lindetrain) With the latest edition of March Madness on the horizon, bettors have begun to turn their attention towards finding potential gold mines in the upcoming NCAA tournament.  Most of those one shining moments (they believe) come in the form of futures—taking stabs at long shots potentially equipped for a deep (or respectable) run in the field of 68. What they don’t realize is, more often than not, these “value bets” are anything but.  A much easier—and more profitable—approach is right in front of them: rolling a team’s money line over from round to round. To prove my thought process, here are two examples from both the past and present: VCU in 2011 (when they made their remarkable Final Four run), and California this year (a suddenly popular futures dark horse). According to sportsoddshistory.com, 11th-seeded VCU entered the 2011 tournament at 300/1.  While some believe these large odds provided ample room to hedge and rake in profits when they made a run, a closer examination shows that rolling over the money lines would’ve paid significantly more handsomely. We’ll assume a $100 bet to start, rolling that—along with the winnings—into each game. Now, before we get into the astronomical numbers the caveat should be added playing 5 figures on a moneyline is difficult logistically but similar limitations could also impact your ability to hedge a straight future bet as well. (Money lines provided by scoresandodds.com; projected title game money line based on semifinal spreads) Start amount: $100 1st round (+165 vs. USC) — $100 to win $165 2nd round (+220 vs. Georgetown) — $265 to win $583 3rd round (+400 vs. Purdue) — $848 to win $3,392 Sweet 16 (+170 vs. Florida State) — $4,240 to win...