Written by KyDerbyJay Once again the First Saturday in May is upon us, and with it, the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby — the greatest two minutes in sports.  Having correctly selected the winning horse for two consecutive years, the pressure has mounted this year EDITOR’s NOTE: he’s not kidding, readers were clamoring for his picks again In scoping out possible win candidates for the Derby, I subscribe to the theory that the most important handicapping tool is envisioning how the race will play out.  All sorts of factors play into this — pace, stamina, racing luck — but the twenty horse field (unheard of in North American racing otherwise) makes it a complicated task.  It’s no secret that the best horse doesn’t always win the race, but instead the horse with the best trip.  With that in mind, let’s move on the twenty horses that make up the 2013 field: Scratched: Black Onyx.  I gave this one little chance anyway, particularly with the inside post draw.  Stewards have decided to leave the 1-hole open, rather than move everybody one post closer inside.  A very good decision in my opinion, and one that opens up the rail. The Pretenders: Golden Soul finished a well-beaten 4th in the Louisiana Derby, and doesn’t seem to be in the same class as most of these…Giant Finish was 3rd in the Spiral Stakes in his last outing.  He’s slow, and really is nothing more than a vanity entry by his connections.  An absolute toss…Falling Sky comes out of the criminally slow Arkansas Derby, and couldn’t even finish in the money in that one.  Have heard some say to watch for him running late — I’m not buying it…Charming Kitten is the weakest of the five Todd Pletcher-trained...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) I have been warning for the last two weeks that this is the time when stakes on EPL games should be reduced.  Although form lines are clearly drawn in the sand it is hard to assess how games will pan out.  This is from both a motivational standpoint; how teams will perform under pressure, both at the top and the bottom of the table.  So be careful and keep stakes to a minimum and see below for the key thoughts to this Saturday and Sunday match ups. Fulham v Reading – Both sides have nothing to play for here bar pride.  I sense this being an open game as over 2.5 goals has been seen in 11 of 17 home games for Fulham and 10 in 17 road games for Reading.  If you want a bet on the outright market the trends point just one way as Fulham are 5-2-1 at home to sides in the bottom half of the EPL table. Norwich v Aston Villa – Villa boosted their survival bid with a 6-1 win over Sunderland last Monday Night Football so will be very confident going into this game.  However, Norwich are 4-4-0 on home soil to fellow lower half strugglers.  There has been no away win in the 3 EPL meetings between sides but all have featured at least 2 goals. Swansea v Man City – City won the meeting 1-0 in Manchester back in October but last season the Swans won this fixture 1-0.  Since their Carling Cup win the home side have appeared more than lackluster and have not won in 3 dates at home.  The value in the betting market here is squarely on the away win. Tottenham v Southampton – Spurs are...

Everyone loves to catch crabs…wait, that didn’t sound right at all. However that won’t stop us from posting weekly odds to speculate on who takes home the most poundage during the Blue Crab / Red Crab season.  All you math junkies and gamblers alike, I didn’t bother to make sure the hold penciled so out of principal Elliot will always be 50-1 until he shows he’s not incompetent as a fisherman Wizard – 23,000: 5/2 Seabrooke – 20,000: 7/2 Time Bandit – 19,500: 3/1 Northwestern – 15,500: 2/1 Cape Caution – 4,900: 6/1 Saga – 0:...

We’ve all been there, looking for advice about how to build a strong betting foundation. This game isn’t for the faint of heart so establishing strong principals become invaluable down the...

My Take: Talks of potential corporate take over have cast European betting exhange giant BetFair in a bit of a unique spot. European shops are running into a lot of the same regulatory issues in new jurisdictions that we’ve grown accustomed to time and again here in the States.  The biggest question facing the largest operators is where their next opportunity will come from and in the interim, investors are seeing opportunities to make large investments. Read the full article here My Take: Known for being the ubber creative marketing firm along with bookmaking shop, Paddy Power is underdoing some financial turmoil of their own right now. The book has struggled to get into the Italian market (like so many books before them) and is feeling it on their balance sheets. It’s just a matter of time before the Irish firm is back in the news with a creative marketing campaign but little to say they won’t be offering refunds for those investing in their stock that was downgraded just this week. Read the full article here    ...

  Establishing balance in a futures market is essential for attracting action on all teams. Unlike a normal supply and demand curve where price rises as demand increases, the opposite is holds true when booking futures; while people are clamoring to bet a team to win the title amid a hot streak or after a major trade, odds drop.  When bettors are avoiding certain teams in the market like the plague, you guessed it, bookmakers raise the number until they can entice a bet.  The process isn’t nearly as simple as I’ve made it sound of course but it’s not difficult to maintain a highly competitive market when monitoring sports daily. Every bookmaker responsible for building a market also understands the theoretical hold his shop strives to keep. Theoretical hold is the percentage of every dollar wagered that goes to the house. In terms of futures, market average should range from 25% on the low side to 40% on the high for most major sports. The perfect market requires equal and opposite reactions on both sides of the equation to maintain equilibrium implying that every time a price is dropped, another needs to be raised (think physics that energy can neither be removed or produced without going somewhere). The primary goal for bookmakers is to achieve balance heading into the season so they can make daily adjustments as the balance of power changes. To visualize the process imagine a balance where you have a large weight on one side and 10 smaller weights on the other. As the standings change, the challenge is steering action towards different commodities (or both sides of the balance) so bettors are able to make a case for not only the prohibitive favorite at 5/2 but also the longshot...

Written by Oddsmaker Adam (follow him on twitter) Adam is a seasoned oddsmaker down in the islands managing shops both in the Caribbean and Dominican Republic. Each week he’ll fill us in on his findings as he tests an ongoing baseball experiment during the 2013 season. WagerMetrics is an experiment which is currently in its first year of public testing. WM’s is a way of betting on baseball that relies on the human element and not statistics. Each documented player is given an emotional profile and projections are made based on his body language and secondary emotional responses. Emotion levels are put into numbers which are then converted into prices. Each player is worth a specific amount to his team as a whole. His price fluctuates based on performance in relation to his emotional profile. These prices are added up to give a team a base value. Based on changing prices and projections, these prices change and are converted into betting lines. These lines display spots of value and suggest where wagers should be made. They say “People lie, numbers wont.” I disagree. ******************** Current Team Values: Los Angeles Dodgers – $470.72 (+4.72) San Francisco Giants $436.38 (+18.38) Arizona Diamondbacks $375.42 (+17.42) Colorado Rockies $344.43 (-0.57) San Diego Padres $268.20 (+4.20) Division Overview Going into the weekend four of the five teams have positive values, and are playing above their expectations. The entire division is currently worth $1895.15, its highest price to date. The Dodgers make up the most value at 24.85% while the Padres make up the least at 14.1%. While the division as a whole is up in value, the parity level has not increased. Win loss records may indicate a big gap in talent, the WagerMetrics do not. San Francisco Giants @ Chicago...

Written by Fullmarx (be sure to follow him on twitter) 2013 Masters Preview: Tiger Takes on the World Spring is in the air. The azaleas are in bloom. Jim Nantz is once again reminding you that his job is way, way better than yours. It’s time for golf’s first major of the year: The Masters. Key Factors There are 93 players in this week’s field, with about 40-45 guys possessing a realistic chance at winning. In choosing among the contenders, here are three factors that I think will play an especially pivotal role: Greens in Regulation: Recent history indicates that if you want to win at Augusta, you have to hit greens in regulation early and often. Of the last 14 winners, 10 of them have finished T-4 of better for the week in GIR percentage. With rain potentially in the forecast for Thursday and Friday that is more likely to soften the course than suspend play, conditions should be ripe for scoring and players will need as many birdie opportunities as possible. Those that spend the least amount of their week trying to scramble for pars will have the best shot. Par 5 Performance: Fans and players alike know that the place where Augusta is most vulnerable is on the par 5s and those hoping to win must take advantage. Six of the last seven winners have played the par 5s in 8 under or better for the week, essentially meaning players looking to contend will need to birdie every other par-5 throughout the week. Three-Putt Avoidance: Around Augusta, the ability to two-putt from 60 feet across a giant tier is just as important as being able to fire an approach shot close the pin. Players will face at least a handful of...

Every once in a while there are news stories that make you scratch your head and ask why.  They elicit a strong gut reaction for a variety of reasons both good and bad. Yesterday an article appeared in the Washington Post discussing a Nevada bill that would expand sports gambling to allow groups to form and make big wagers.  In theory, it’s a great idea that gives bettors legal access to Nevada books for placing wagers yet this proposal is fundamentally flawed from it’s inception and doomed to fail unless sportsbook culture in this state changes entirely. To read the article in it’s entirety click here Rather than sit on a soapbox and look down my nose at groundbreaking legislation which is aimed to advance our industry I think breaking down quotes and content from the article better illustrates my frustrations and why I don’t see this as a long term solution or feasible in any capacity. “The bill received its first hearing in a Senate committee Monday as a leading gambling executive projected that Nevada sports books could see action nearly triple in the next five years if it were to become law. The bill would add “entities” to be formed and authorized to make sports bets. The groups could act as a type of hedge fund and wager big dollars on football, basketball, baseball and other sports. In turn, they could seek out investors to put up money and “leave it up to the expert to make the bet,” Brower said.” My first question: how would this triple action for the books? I mean sure, it would triple the volume and betting handle that casinos see flowing through at the top line but I can say with 99.9% confidence this wouldnt be profitable for every shop. There’s already a reluctance in Nevada to...

Baseball can be one of the most difficult sports for novice bettors to attack with confidence. Understanding basic principles will give you a start but like everything in handicapping, there’s a ton of trial and error. Here are a few things to consider before walking to the window Building on the video, here’s a chart of exactly what it takes to break even at each of the major price points you’ll encounter throughout the summer Favorite Winning % Underdog Winning % -110 52.38% +110 47.62% -115 53.49% +115 46.51% -120 54.55% +120 45.45% -125 55.56% +125 44.44% -130 56.52% +130 43.48% -135 57.45% +135 42.55% -140 58.33% +140 41.67% -145 59.18% +145 40.82% -150 60.00% +150 40.00% -155 60.78% +155 39.22% -160 61.54% +160 38.46% -165 62.26% +165 37.74% -170 62.96% +170 37.04% -175 63.64% +175 36.36% -180 64.29% +180 35.71% -185 64.91% +185 35.09% -190 65.52% +190 34.48% -200 66.67% +200 32.26% -220 68.75% +220 31.25% -240 70.59% +240 29.41% -250 71.43% +250...