It happens every summer; pitchers burst onto the scene and catch bookmakers by surprise. Unlike other sports where adjustments can be made overnight, the value created for baseball bettors from a no name starter can sustain value for extended stretches. However, a third of the way into the season there are very few unknowns meaning books are onto those hot arms (and the cold ones). The name of the game in every sport is knowing how long to ride a team right before the price becomes prohibitive and there’s no greater example than starting pitchers in MLB.  With the calendar hitting June, here are my guys to watch from an overvalued and undervalued standpoint from now into the Allstar break. OVERVALUED: Patrick Corbin: I hated putting him on this list because I’m a big believer in this mini-Kershaw’s raw talent. However when your team is 10-0 in your starts yielding over 1 unit per start on average for bettors, you’re bound to regress and start costing your backers money.  We saw some of that in his last start against the Padres where Corbin finally looked human. I don’t think you’ll get rich betting against him for the long term but for the next 5 weeks expect him to be grossly overvalued. Pirates Arms (Rodriguez, Locke, Gomez): This is as much a reaction to the team as a whole as it is to the three guys named here. The Pirates are typically undervalued by books every night and these three pitchers have benefited at least as far as bettors are concerned. None of this trio has true ace stuff like AJ Burnett and it’s kept their price down early in the year. Simple reality, what goes up must come down and these arms aren’t the...

Click here Part 1 Official NHL preview with the Big Dog delving into a little bit of everything as is our Friday custom  

Mark Rodgers and I break down everything from the NBA playoff picture to the Women’s College World Series, yes…I’m not kidding Click here to listen

If you believe once in a lifetime moments don’t happen to gamblers, guess again. A very shrewd (I call him lucky) bettor at www.betonline.ag happened to cash not an 8 or 10 teamer, not a 12 or 15 teamer, but rather a 25 team parlay!!! “All chalk moneyline parlays are nothing new. Players always love parlaying a bunch of “sure things” together for a potential big payout. And we love seeing those parlays come in…usually. This guy is beating the odds. Lightning not only strikes twice, but three times with this guy.  Last week he hit a 14-team $250 for $11,000. And a few weeks back he goes off on a 16team $100 that paid $11K. This dude isn’t human.” via Dave Mason from BOL. You heard it straight from the book, this kind of parlay defies logic. To whatever gambler caught lightning in a bottle yet again, make sure you put aside some of that coin for a rainy day to remember this momentous...

So you’ve been a successful bettor for a while and feel your methods are ready to be sold to the masses; there’s a lot more to it than just making picks when you’re a professional handicapper looking to build a business.  Based on personal experience, let me tell you it’s a roller coaster ride selling picks online. Follow the author on twitter @MisterQuinnBets First off, I should clarify my qualifications to discuss this topic.  I ran a successful tout service with one of my best friends for three years called Broad Street Cappers.  Although our selections were profitable for our clients, we were never able to ramp up the client base as much as we’d hoped to make it worth our while. After the NCAA Hoops Championship game, we decided to shut down the site. The most important part of selling picks is winning.  Seems simple and obvious, but as any real professional sports bettor will tell you, that can be harder than it appears.  Hitting at a 52.38% rate is the name of the game and if you’re considering becoming a professional pick seller you should have a long term track record of hitting at at least 55%.  Bottom line, if you’re not winning it will be difficult to grow your client base and sell your service using a straightforward approach.  You need to have full confidence in your methods in order to successfully promote your service and abilities. Honesty and transparency are key factors that will differentiate you from most of the industry.  Unfortunately the  business is  filled with scam artists, losers, deceitful marketers, and flat-out dishonest people.  The cappers that earn others’ respect and are ultimately successful are people that put themselves and their reputation on the line every night.  This...

Click here to listen Another day in the life of our weekly radio segment with Brent Dougherty, Clay Travis, and Blaine Bishop of 3HL in Nashville. Plenty of futures discussion for both the NBA and NHL playoffs along with some SEC football...

Opening odds courtesy of the LVH Superbook DOVER INT’L SPEEDWAY SUNDAY, JUNE 2, 2013  JIMMIE JOHNSON 5 KYLE BUSCH 5 MATT KENSETH 6 KASEY KAHNE 8 DENNY HAMLIN 8 BRAD KESELOWSKI 12 CARL EDWARDS 12 GREG BIFFLE 15 JEFF GORDON 15 DALE EARNHARDT JR 20 CLINT BOWYER 12 KEVIN HARVICK 15 MARTIN TRUEX JR 15 TONY STEWART 35 JOEY LOGANO 35 MARK MARTIN 50 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100 KURT BUSCH 20 RYAN NEWMAN 75 JUAN MONTOYA 100 JAMIE McMURRAY 100 PAUL MENARD 100 MARCOS AMBROSE 100 ARIC ALMIROLA 100 JEFF BURTON 200 AUSTIN DILLON 500 DANICA PATRICK 1000 FIELD...

“The sometimes nasty legal battle that Cantor Gaming launched two years ago against former executive Joseph Asher has now extended to arch rival William Hill PLC.” Click here for full article Todd’s Take: Sometimes relationships in the tight knit gambling community don’t end well. What we’re seeing unfold between William Hill and Cantor Gaming amounts to a turf war over intellectual property, the culmination of bad blood between Hill’s head man Joe Asher and Cantor’s CEO Lee Amaitis.  Both stand alone sportsbook operators are trying to gain a larger piece of Nevada resident’s wallet share, a pool of betting dollars that very much remains finite. Both of these operators are actively pushing mobile apps as a significant portion of their future business strategy. Stations remains the only other player with a mobile application capable of challenging the heavyweights although one has to wonder how long before major casino operators Caesars Entertainment and MGM realize the revenue opportunities they’re leaving on the table.  The problem with this ongoing dispute among competitors are the larger conflicts it creates for the industry as a whole. Las Vegas needs to be more proactive in developing technology and betting offerings capable of rivaling the bigger betting houses throughout Europe and that other faction of books deemed “illegal” by our department of justice. Without innovation in the race and sports business, revenues will remain stagnant. Eventually a time will come, one with increased market competition, and Las Vegas as we know it will get left in the...

In the 1980s, sports analytics pioneer Bill James developed a formula to calculate an expected winning percentage for a MLB team based on its’ runs scored and runs allowed.  The equation, named after its resemblance to trigonometry’s Pythagorean Theorem, is fairly simple: Written by Justin Zovas (follow him on twitter @JustinZovas) The formula computes how many games a team should have won based on its runs scored and allowed.  James found that a team’s scoring margin is highly correlated with its winning percentage.  Teams whose actual wins exceeded their Pythagorean wins are considered ‘lucky’ and teams that underperformed relative to their Pythagorean expectation are considered ‘unlucky’.  For those of us concerned with predicting future outcomes, the main takeaway is that Pythagorean win percentage is superior to actual winning percentage in determining a team’s future winning percentage. Over the years, the formula has been slightly altered by statisticians and refined for NFL analysis (2.37 is the exponent commonly used for football).  Although the sample size is dramatically reduced, evidence supports that NFL teams that overachieve or underachieve relative to their expected Pythagorean win expectation are subject to regression the following season. Inspired by Joe Peta’s work with “Cluster Luck” in baseball as described in his book Trading Bases: A Story About Wall Street, Gambling, and Baseball, I have  taken this type of analysis a step further and created a second-order Pythagorean win expectation for NFL teams.  My goal is to answer the following question:  Based on a team’s performance statistics, what should have been its net scoring differential and then, ultimately, its ‘adjusted’ Pythagorean win percentage? The reasoning is that the influence of randomness is not limited to just wins and losses.  A number of bounces—of both good and bad fortune—over the course of a...

Tottenham winger Andros Townsend will have treatment for a gambling problem at the Sporting Chance clinic in Hampshire after being charged by the Football Association with betting offences. The 21-year-old midfielder, who was on loan at QPR between January and the end of the season, withdrew from the England Under-21 squad for this summer’s European Championship in Israel when the charges became public on Friday. Townsend’s betting activity is not connected to match-fixing although sources say it was flagged up by bookmakers to the FA as ‘irregular’. Cick here to read full article Todd’s Take: Most people reading the article will see this gambling story as problematic and part of an epidemic among European soccer players but I see it differently. Considering there was no impropriety in Tottenham games where he was directly involved, credit the league and club for being proactive in seeking a solution.  Addressing the issue publicly speaks volumes about how seriously the EPL takes gambling rather than sweeping it under the rug pretending these types of incidents don’t take place.  Stopping the gambling by offering solutions to the problem prevent situations from escalating to match fixing as players seek “alternatives” to pay off potential debts. One thing I continue to support and will for the foreseeable future is how European Football associations understand gambling will take place so instead of ignoring it’s existence, they remain ready to forge solutions not only to protect the integrity of their sport but also the safety of their...

As far as I’m concerned, the pie in the face after MLB walkoff is getting old. However, this postgame interview with Munenori Kawasaki after his game winning base hit against the Orioles on Sunday takes things to a whole new...

Things to know about the French open for those new to tennis: This is the lone major of the year played on Clay. Clay is slower and as a result the points are longer and it always favors players in great shape and those who are steady, allowing them to construct points rather then playing into the hands of big hitters who want to end points in less then three shots. Betting on Spaniards, Argentinians, and against Americans blind isn’t the worst strategy for this event. Written by Adam Chemerinsky Follow him on Twitter adctennis Conditions:  The Forecast says rain is a possibility the first week. If this is true, expect the court to be even slower because the ball will be heavier and won’t bounce as high either. Know how this suits your player before wagering on a match where rain could interfere with your expectations. However, every rain delay is unique, don’t live bet off your pick just because it rains. Future market: I will be shocked if Rafa does not bite into the trophy and win this tournament. However at -150 pre tournament odds I think a ML rollover starting in the 3rd round is the best way to go about making money on him. Nadal was -205 vs Djokovic in their lone clay court meeting this year and Djokovic won in straight sets. The ML rollover will pay better then -150 assuming they indeed meet in the semis. The bottom half of the draw: Rafa and Djok are on the top half; Andy Murray and Del Potro are injured and not playing. This means the bottom half is open to a possible outsider to make a run at the finals. I have hit Ernests Gulbis at 175-1 and 150-1 and...