It’s a commonly known statistic that 98% of those who gamble – be it consistently or infrequently – end up with less money than they started with. The remaining 2% are your professionals. There are many aspects that separate the professionals from the rest of the pack but the key factor is an edge. Without an edge you can’t succeed in the gambling industry long term. And any success you may have experienced short term without gaining a true edge will only fool you into believing your inevitable decline will be short lived. Written by Jay Jarrahi (Follow him on twitter @JayJarrahi) Bookmakers revel in bettors who are not price or line sensitive and that stream of ill-informed money is why bookmakers will always make multi-million dollar (or pound in my case) profits. If you’re reading this article and you’re someone who backs a team or player because you “think” they or he/she will win – you’re on the wrong track. Professionals aren’t in the business of fortune telling. We all have views and opinions on how any number of tournaments or matches might play out, but that’s not what a professional is betting in attempts to make a living. A professional sports bettor or sports trader is no different from a stock trader; they just happen to deal in sports and not other aspects of business and industry. The aim is always to find value, buying at the right price or the right line, and in some instances selling that price or line when the market moves, be it from an influx of money or due to further developments in the tournament or match they have financially entered into.   WHAT IS AN EDGE? The simplest way to define an edge in betting...

All odds courtesy of the LVH and are updated as of today (6/10) For more golf information check www.golfodds.com US OPEN MERION GOLF CLUB – ARDMORE, PENNSYLVANIA JUNE 13-16, 2013   ODDS TO WIN: TIGER WOODS                   4/1 RORY McILROY                 20/1 LEE WESTWOOD                 25/1 PHIL MICKELSON               20/1 ADAM SCOTT                   20/1 BRANDT SNEDEKER              30/1 JUSTIN ROSE                  25/1 LUKE DONALD                  30/1 CHARL SCHWARTZEL             30/1 DUSTIN JOHNSON               40/1 MATT KUCHAR                  20/1 GRAEME McDOWELL              25/1 SERGIO GARCIA                40/1 JASON DAY                    40/1 KEEGAN BRADLEY               40/1 LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN             50/1 JASON DUFNER                 40/1 HUNTER MAHAN                 50/1 STEVE STRICKER               40/1 BUBBA WATSON                 60/1 JIM FURYK                    40/1 RICKIE FOWLER                60/1 WEBB SIMPSON                 40/1 NICK WATNEY                  80/1 IAN POULTER                  80/1 THORBJORN OLESEN            100/1 BILL HAAS                    80/1 BO VAN PELT                  80/1 MARTIN KAYMER                80/1 PETER HANSON                 80/1 HENRIK STENSON               60/1 PADRAIG HARRINGTON           60/1 ANGEL CABRERA                60/1 TIM CLARK                    80/1 ERNIE ELS                    80/1 FREDDIE JACOBSON            125/1 GEOFF OGILVY                150/1 NICOLAS COLSAERTS           125/1 K.J. CHOI                   125/1 ZACH JOHNSON                 60/1 MARTIN LAIRD                125/1 CHARLES HOWELL III            DNQ RYAN MOORE                  100/1 FRANCESCO MOLINARI          100/1 MATTEO MANASSERO             60/1 GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO   200/1 STEWART CINK                150/1 GARY WOODLAND                 DNQ AARON BADDELEY              250/1 BEN CRANE                     DNQ RETIEF GOOSEN                  WD BRANDEN GRACE               150/1 RICHARD STERNE                 WD DAVID TOMS                  150/1 JOHN SENDEN                 150/1 CARL PETTERSSON             150/1 GEORGE COETZEE              150/1 ROBERT GARRIGUS             150/1 SCOTT PIERCY                150/1 JIMMY WALKER                  DNQ Y.E. YANG                   200/1 VIJAY SINGH                   DNQ JOHN HUH                    150/1 MARCEL SIEM                 200/1 GREG CHALMERS                 DNQ BRENDON DE JONGE              DNQ MARC LEISHMAN               125/1 MICHAEL THOMPSON            150/1 RUSSELL HENLEY              125/1 TREVOR IMMELMAN               DNQ LUCAS GLOVER                150/1 CHRIS WOOD                    DNQ KEVIN CHAPPELL               80/1 LUKE GUTHRIE                250/1 SEUNG-YUL NOH                 DNQ BRIAN GAY                     DNQ RYAN PALMER                   DNQ ROBERT KARLSSON             150/1 KEVIN NA                      DNQ DAVID LYNN                     WD RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO          DNQ KEVIN STREELMAN             100/1 PAUL LAWRIE                 250/1 MARCUS FRASER               300/1 CHRIS KIRK                    DNQ KYLE STANLEY                150/1 PAUL CASEY                  200/1 THOMAS BJORN                  DNQ JAMIE...

Not going to waste a lot of words here, and get right down to business. Here is the field for the 2013 Belmont Stakes, listed in order by post position: Written by @KyDerbyJay Frac Daddy – Loved what this horse did as a 2YO, but hasn’t carried his form over to his 3YO campaign.  Showed some promise in the Arkansas Derby, and was regarded by some as a live longshot at Churchill Downs.  Turned in a real stinker there though, beaten 24 lengths in the slop.  Feel like that one is an easy toss-out, and that he could sitting on a big race after the five-week layoff.  Have huge respect for trainer Kenny McPeek, and will be using him on a few tickets. Freedom Child –Figures to be overbet after a runaway triumph over a sloppy track in the Peter Pan 4 weeks ago.  That win was aided by first time Lasix; was that the wake-up call he needed?  I’m skeptical, based on a pretty average form prior.  Not going to completely his dismiss his chances at stringing back-to-back big races together, but just don’t think he is going to offer fair value at the wagering windows. Overanalyze –Hearing a lot of chatter about this one from folks I respect, but that same chatter was coming during Derby Week as well. Captured the Arkansas Derby two races back, a race I’ve dismissed as painfully slow — did Oxbow’s Preakness change my thinking on that?  Where Overanalyze is concerned, the answer is a steadfast no.  Just don’t see him making much of an impact in this race. Giant Finish – I gave this one absolutely no shot in the Kentucky Derby, and he split the field in 10th place at 39-1.  Has worked steadily for...

Maximizing profitability from series betting is one of the most underutilized options for the casual gambler. We broke down hedging in a post earlier this week but as we sit on the cusp of the NBA Finals, I wanted to break down a common mistake I see bettors make. At the beginning of every playoff series, no matter the sport, we all have opinions as bettors who will advance. However from a wagering standpoint your decision to bet (or not bet) should be driven by one thing and one thing only; PRICE. Let’s use the Heat vs Spurs series to illustrate my point (hopefully everything will make a lot more sense by the time you’re done reading this).  If I believed the Spurs were going to beat the Heat, betting the series before it starts at the current market price isn’t the best investment.  Most shops are sitting anywhere from +170 to +175 as I write this article so for argument’s sake lets use the higher price of +175 to explain why. If I were to bet the Spurs at +175, the math is simple: risk 1 unit to win 1.75 and let the best of 7 play out.  However, why would I bet the Spurs at +175 if I could get them on the moneyline for Game 1 at +190.  The next question that’s inevitably asked is why would I bet that because if the Spurs lose Game 1, my investment is dead and there’s no chance of recovery.  This is where knowing your bankroll and betting expectations comes into play because maximizing potential profit also carries slightly more risk. If the Spurs drop game 1, the series price will drop to +250 and that’s where the value shift occurs. You can now...

An Auburn-Arkansas basketball game on Jan. 25, 2012 was compromised, according to the U.S. Attorney’s office in Montgomery, Ala. Former Auburn point guard Varez Ward was arrested Monday and indicted on two counts related to point shaving. U.S. Attorney George Beck Jr. told The Associated Press that Ward allegedly tried to fix the 2012 SEC game at Arkansas. Auburn was a 9-point road underdog and lost, 56-53, covering the spread, but prosecutors claim Ward’s objective was just to make sure the Tigers lost. To read the full story click here Todd’s Take: Do I have all the details surrounding Ward’s involvement in this point shaving case? Nope but what I do know is the part of the story where they reference Auburn losing outright as a 9 pt dog as evidence of his involvement has me confused. I’ve studied point shaving in the past and never once heard of people betting a -500 ML in those instances.  I worry that George Beck doesn’t understand exactly how the whole situation was executed by reading his comments. Ward’s poor play actually supports match fixing to protect the under rather than ensuring Auburn, a dog in both games, found a way to not cover but what do I know.  There will be more that comes out on this story as the FBI digs deeper but color me skeptical given some of the circumstances being shared up to this point. For more...

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Friday marks a major event for bettors on the Las Vegas college football calendar. The Golden Nugget will be releasing 250 game of the year lines to the public.  Until then to whet your appetite, here are 10 games (with totals) they’ve decided to release early this year. August 31 – Alabama vs Virginia Tech (Atlanta) – Alabama -17, total 48 September 14 – Alabama @ Texas A&M – Alabama -6, total 54½ September 28 – LSU @ Georgia – Georgia -6, total 52 September 28 – Wisconsin @ Ohio St. – Ohio St. -11, total 45 October 12 – Florida @ LSU – LSU -4, total 41½ November 2 – Florida vs. Georgia (Jacksonville) – Georgia -4, total 44½ November 9 – LSU @ Alabama – Alabama -11½, total 39½ November 23 – Texas A&M @ LSU – LSU -1, total 47½ November 30 – Florida St. @ Florida – Florida -2, total 44 November 30 – Ohio St. @ Michigan – Ohio St. -6, total 50½ Friday you will be able to find the complete list of games at...

In sports, we often hear phrases such as “the final score was not indicative of how close these two teams played”.   Such rhetoric is grounded in the belief that scoring margin is an imperfect measure of a team’s true ability.  Randomness and variations of luck over the course of a game or season can result in a team’s performance on the scoreboard deviating from its actual talent level. Written by Justin Zovas This understanding served as the primary motive in last week’s In case you missed Part 1 of the story click here column which discussed my creation of a second-order Pythagorean expectation for NFL teams.  A team’s yards per play and yards per point metrics are regressed to predict what its net scoring margin should have been.  From there, we can calculate how many games the team should have won based on its key performance statistics. Listed below is each team ranked by its adjusted Pythagorean wins along with its actual and standard Pythagorean wins.  It is important to remember that it is a retrodictive evaluation of last season that documents which teams overachieved or underachieved relative to their Pythagorean expectations.  Over the past four seasons, teams that have outperformed their adjusted Pythagorean expectation by greater than one win have experienced, on average, a 1.77 decrease in wins the following season.  In contrast, those who underperformed by greater than one game have seen their win totals increase by 2.75 games, on average. Below is a chart of how many games each team won in 2012 vs what would have been expected by their advanced metrics. Team Wins Pythag. Wins Adjusted Pythag. Wins Seahawks 11.00 12.39 12.26 49ers 11.50 11.33 11.53 Broncos 13.00 12.32 11.53 Bears 10.00 10.75 11.26 Patriots 12.00 12.39 10.44 Falcons...

The media and bettors alike love a great sports betting story, especially when it involves large numbers. The one major problem is when stories are written and given national media attention by reputable outlets despite being completely untrue. Yesterday provided another black eye for the advancement of sports gambling news coverage when a larger than life rumor gained traction through the twitterverse after it was picked up by major news media. Here are 4 reasons (beyond the actual fact we know it never happened) that Floyd Mayweather didn’t have 5.9 million bet on the Miami Heat in Game 7. (ticket image courtesy of @Kunk7) Before I actually dive into those specific reasons, let me say I’m embarrassed that our own local news media here in Las Vegas didn’t take the time to verify the story before allowing it to generate momentum nationally (I still don’t know how Vegas Gambling Steam is a reliable news source). 1) The Source The story broke from the twitter account @Pregame_Steam. This account as you see in the biography links directly to a known sports rumor mill designed for doing one thing and one thing only; generating pick sales for its ownership group led by Incarcerated Bob.  It’s not a reach to say this is the journalistic equivalent of the national news media citing the National Enquirer over White House correspondents when writing articles on US foreign policy. The lackluster effort and fact checking that went into validating this story boggles my mind, there’s absolutely no excuse for it ever happening if we care about accuracy in reporting.  I spoke to one of the most respected journalists David Purdum currently covering the sports betting industry and here’s what he said about the topic at hand:   “To me, it’s...

We hear about different shortcut approaches for betting baseball all the time. The one that gets mentioned frequently is the Martingale System. To employ this tactic the goal is simple; double up your bets for as long as it takes to make one unit.  This clearly seemed like a no brainer if you just faded the much maligned Astros most of this season because they’ve been incapable of stringing together wins.  Well, well, well let’s hope there aren’t bettors who chose to utilize this betting strategy the last 6 games because the results would not be pretty. I’m pretty sure a small business loan might not suffice to pay off the potential carnage. (data provided by @ClarkRowe)  Team Price Risk Win Loss Net @ LAA -270 $270 $100 ($270) ($270) @ LAA -260 $973 $370 ($973) ($1,243) @ LAA -270 $3,626 $1,343 ($3,626) ($4,869) @ LAA -265 $13,168 $4,969 ($13,168) ($18,037) @ Rockies -290 $52,597 $18,137 ($52,597) ($70,634) @ Rockies -190 $134,395 $70,734 ($134,395)...

Every year around each sport’s respective postseason people struggle with a major question in sports investing: to hedge or not to hedge when it comes to their season long futures or short term series prices.  Depending on who you ask, you can get very different answers about the best way to handle the situation.  My goal here isn’t to tell you which is better than any other but rather provide the few schools of thought that should always be considered based on the individual bettor’s financial goals and needs. Thought process #1: don’t hedge at all. Simply put, you took a calculated position from the start to gain an edge and you’re now sitting in a position of positive expectation. There’s no better feeling than grabbing a relative longshot during the middle of the season and then seeing your investment make it all the way to the finals.  If you saw value in the investment months ago, clearly having a 20-1 shot to win just one series offers value beyond your wildest expectations.  Bettors who consistently find these wagering opportunities will profit handsomely over the long haul without question. Thought process #2: do enough to turn your long term investment into a break even proposition as the worse case scenario.  These type of hedge opportunities present themselves more frequently prompting deliberate thought and calculated execution to be successful.  Perfect example of this betting opportunity happened to me between Saturday and today. I’m currently sitting on a Bruins ticket to win the East at a paltry +200 from last round. Rather than scalp a portion of my risk back in Pittsburgh at -190 for the Eastern Conference finals I decided to let the bet go for Game 1. After Boston’s Game 1 win, the series...

We all have moments in sports that still hurt as bettors and especially as fans every time we see them. For me, this moment in Yankee history is still tough to stomach every time I’m reminded of it. Now, thanks to Macklemore and Ryan Lewis it’s immortalized in the form of a music...