Wimbledon is less than 24 hours away and this week we’re going to look at market moves for the top contenders over the course of this season. The ideal for any bettor is to strike a bet when the price is at its highest point and hopefully seeing that bet increase in value as the price drops closer to the start of the respective tournament. We’ll take a look at why prices have moved at certain points to give a better understanding of how to approach futures markets in tennis at the Grand Slam level going forward. Written by Jay Jarrahi MEN Novak Djokovic Jan 1: 11/4 Now: 5/4 High: 11/4 (Jan 1) The world number one’s price for Wimbledon remained fairly consistent for much of the first six months of the season (a starting high of 11/4) but that price has now nose dived (5/4 now) after a favourable draw. There was no way of being able to be sure that Djokovic’s price would drop to this extent since there was a 50/50 chance that Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer could land in his half. In the end Djokovic’s best case scenario became a reality with Nadal and Federer landing in the bottom half meaning he’ll only have to beat one of Andy Murray, Nadal or Federer to win the title and may even not have to face any of them. Djokovic’s price would just have easily swung in the opposite direction had Nadal and Federer ended up in the top half of the draw. Andy Murray Jan 1: 3/1 Now: 4/1 High: 9/2 (mid-June) Like Djokovic, Murray’s price has remained fairly consistent throughout the season until he picked up a back injury just before the French Open. Having been 3/1 and 7/2...

The Pareto Principle states that 80% of outcomes come from 20% of causes. For example, 80% of supermarket revenue may come from 20% of the product lines. The idea is attributed to Italian Vilfredo Pareto, who in 1906 observed that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the population. The ubiquitous nature of 80/20 “Power Laws” (as they are known) even spreads to our personal lives. Try looking at likes on your Facebook posts (if you have an account). You should notice that close to 80% of your likes come from around 20% of your friends, or 80% of your mobile SMS messages come from 20% of your phone contacts. There is nothing intrinsically special about these relative proportions; it just happens that they describe the relationships across many dimensions, including accurately predicting bets. The issue for bettors is that to be better than the 80%, you need to put in considerably more effort. Figure 1 simplifies the process of trying to become a more successful bettor as the relationship between accuracy of selections and the effort invested in making them. Click here to read full article Todd’s Take: Work smarter, not harder. It’s a mantra all of us should live by no matter our career or hobby pursuits. By allocating your time correctly while handicapping you can achieve better results than 80% of bettors out there with 20% of the workd.  One of the biggest ways to do so is thinking like a bettor AND a bookmaker. Understand the markets that give you an edge, know which are competitive for the player whereas others are built to benefit the house.  Give yourself multiple betting outlets to shop your numbers, never leaving yourself forced to take the worst of the...

The final games of Group A will be played simultaneously on Saturday at 3:00 PM EST, though only one game truly matters as Japan and Mexico have already been eliminated.  With both Brazil and Italy tied atop the group at six points, the outcome of this game (aka the loser) will determine who faces Spain in the semi-finals.  As things stand right now, Brazil would win the group because of their superior goal differential.  Thus, the scenarios are easily apparent: Brazil can win the group with a draw or win, while Italy must beat Brazil to win the group and avoid a semi-final match against Spain.   Written by Garret Yancey Because it must beat Brazil to win the group, some might think that Italy is going to throw caution to the wind in order to come out victorious.  After conceding three times to Japan though, the Azzurri’s attentions have to be directed to their back line.  Italy is known for it’s defensive soccer, and I expect their entire focus to be on turning out a strong defensive effort against the host nation.  Remember, Italy is the nation that birthed Catenaccio, and is more prone to winning games 1-0 than 4-3. Expect to see the Italians lay back and absorb Brazil’s attack for most of the game, then break on the counter quickly when they gain possession.  Not having Andrea Pirlo on the pitch, who is out with a calf injury, will definitely affect Italy’s ability to possess the ball, and create attacking chances.   Unless Brazil gets a lead early on, don’t expect to see a Pirlo-less Italy recklessly throwing numbers up the pitch until late in the game.   On the other side of the pitch, Brazil only needs a draw to win the group...

We all remember what we saw last but rather than make blanket generalizations, let’s throw it to the community to vote on the best game of the 2013 NBA postseason. I know which game gets my vote…and in a...

All odds courtesy of William Hill US ODDS TO WIN 2013-14 NBA TITLE Heat                +230 Thunder        9/2 Bulls                6/1 Spurs              7/1 Clippers         10/1 Rockets         10/1 Pacers            15/1 Grizzlies         20/1 Lakers             20/1 Knicks             22/1 Warriors        22/1 Nuggets        25/1 Nets               30/1 Mavericks    30/1 Celtics            50/1 Hawks            75/1 Wolves          100/1 Bucks             100/1 76ers              100/1 Blazers          100/1 Jazz                 100/1 Pelicans         150/1 Cavaliers       150/1 Kings              150/1 Wizards        200/1 Raptors        200/1 Suns              300/1 Pistons         300/1 Magic            400/1 Bobcats        500/1   ODDS TO WIN 2013-14 STANLEY CUP Penguins          11/2 Blackhawks      6/1 Bruins                 8/1 Rangers             10/1 Kings                   12/1 Sharks                15/1 Red Wings        15/1 Blues                  15/1 Capitals             15/1 Canucks            15/1 Ducks                 18/1 Senators           20/1 Wild                    25/1 Canadiens        30/1 Islanders           30/1 Maple Leafs     30/1 Flyers                  35/1 Oilers                  35/1 Devils                  40/1 Lightning           40/1 Blue Jackets     40/1 Jets                      40/1 Predators          50/1 Hurricanes        50/1 Avalanche         50/1 Coyotes             50/1 Stars                    60/1 Sabres                75/1 Flames               100/1 Panthers          ...

4.3% of iPhone owners in the UK are using at least one sports betting app, according to data shared with The Guardian by mobile data startup Onavo. Bookmaker William Hill’s app is the most popular, actively used by 38% of those iPhone-owning sports gamblers, followed by Paddy Power (32%) and bet365 (24%). “There’s a lot of overlap: people are using a bunch of these apps rather than just sticking with one,” says Onavo chief executive Guy Rosen. “If you look at the users of bet365, 17% of them are also using Betfred, and 10% are also using Paddy Power. Or if you look at William Hill, 10% are also using bet365. There’s a lot of interplay between these.” The company has been analysing data from usage of its Onavo Count and Extend apps, which help people monitor their data usage and compress it to eke more out of their monthly plan respectively. Click here to read full article Todd’s Take: The States are light years behind the UK as far as legal sports betting options are concerned, of course this isn’t news. However what I found fascinating in this article is the level of sophistication among bettors in the UK actively shopping lines by using different available applications. Amazing also to think that 1 of 20 iphone users have some form of sports betting application on their phone illustrating not only the revenue potential from bets but the databasing and advertising opportunities as well.  I’m preaching to the choir around these parts but let this be a lesson to every lobbyist defending the stance of the various sports leagues actively defending the anti-legalization of sports gambling stance. I mean afterall, who doesn’t want a sports betting app that can be used for live betting when you’re at a...

Sports bettors tend to have similar tastes. I’m not a huge pop culture guy but stumbled across both of these trailers for movies I expect the majority of the readership will be interested in checking out...

The NFL may be a league of parity but in any given game two teams are rarely evenly matched.  Even if it’s only an edge through home field advantage, sharp minds can almost always agree on which team should be considered the favorite.  Opinions quickly differ, however, when we try to determine the degree to which one team is superior to another.  This is where Vegas comes into play; oddsmakers produce their own projection to settle such disputes.  And the business responsible for taking all of our action is pretty good at what they do. Written by Justin Zovas After all, if Sportsbooks were inept at posting lines (and also adjusting for the money-backed opinions they receive), far greater than just a select minority would be able to consistently find success betting professional football.  This led me to thinking and subsequently asking one question: exactly how accurate is Vegas at predicting the outcomes of NFL games?  Dating back to 1989 (a sample size of 5,996 games), the final score has landed within +/- 3 points of the point spread 21.2% (1,272 games) of the time.  Below is a chart that illustrates the relationship between the point spread and the final score of games over the past 23 seasons. Final score margin from point spread Percentage of games +/- 1 9.9% 2 15.4% 3 21.2% 4 27.4% 5 32.7% 6 38.9% 7 44.6% While these results should curb the belief that oddsmakers are omniscient and “always get it right,” the fact that the final score falls within a field goal of the consensus line in 1 out of every 5 games is still beyond impressive.  To put it into context, in a given week when there are 16 games on the board, the spread will...

Every now and again we read something that inspires us to action. Some of us donate to a cause, others call a friend, whereas I choose to relate everything to gambling. A buddy sent me this article from Grantland.com that appeared on their site in late May and I knew it was going to lead somewhere, I just didn’t know how I could put it to use at the time. Last week inspiration struck along with a few adult beverages and depending how you feel about my writing you’re either fortunate for the final creation or cursing my name for wasting your time. Regardless, we all know sports bettors and 100% of them fall into one of these categories. If you fall into 8 of them yourself, you definitely might have a problem. Action Junkie/Weekend Warrior Action junkies are glued to the TV, watching every game in its entirety when money’s in play. They’re not worried about getting the best of the number or finding games that give them the best chance to win; nope all they’re worried about is the time slot.  Visualize your neighborhood bar on the weekend and the group yelling at the TV during a Browns/Jaguars game, that’s a weekend warrior. Apologist This sports bettor is one who has grown so accustomed to apologizing for being a bettor it’s become part of his identity. We’ve all been with this guy before; he spends more time hiding his betting from his girlfriend, wife, and boss that he’s simply exhausted when it comes time to handicap. Yes, gambling in most locales is technically illegal but he’s really bought into the taboo that surrounds his favorite past time. Serious Investor This is the guy on the list you don’t want to watch games...

Future Odds Courtesy of the LVH (current as of 6/17) 2013 WORLD SERIES ANGELS 30 NATIONALS 20 YANKEES 15 DODGERS 30 RANGERS 13 TIGERS 6 RAYS 20 BRAVES 7 PHILLIES 50 GIANTS 12 CARDINALS 7 REDS 10 A’S 8 WHITE SOX 100 BREWERS 200 DIAMONDBACKS 15 BLUE JAYS 100 ORIOLES 15 RED SOX 12 METS 300 PIRATES 25 ROYALS 50 CUBS 200 PADRES 40 MARLINS 5000 MARINERS 100 INDIANS 50 TWINS 100 ROCKIES 50 ASTROS 5000 2013 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT NATIONALS 10 DODGERS 15 BRAVES 3 PHILLIES 25 GIANTS 6 CARDINALS 3 REDS 9-2 BREWERS 90 DIAMONDBACKS 7 METS 125 PIRATES 12 CUBS 90 PADRES 20 MARLINS 2000 ROCKIES 25 2013 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT ANGELS 15 YANKEES 7 RANGERS 13-2 TIGERS 5-2 RAYS 10 A’S 4 WHITE SOX 50 BLUE JAYS 50 ORIOLES 7 RED SOX 5 ROYALS 25 MARINERS 50 INDIANS 25 TWINS 50 ASTROS...

There’s a common misconception amongst bettors – particularly in the UK – that those who work inside the industry as odds compilers or in-play traders don’t understand the frustrations when trying to place bets themselves. I’ve always found that suggestion quite strange since many people inside the industry make (or at least try to) a supplemental living through their own wagers with rival companies. The barriers and restrictions that sharp betting minds encounter with bookmakers are the same as those enforced on those in the industry playing the other side of the fence. I’m not sure how this idea has been cultivated that people inside the industry are forced to take a side either as a bettor or a bookmaker when the exact opposite is true. Both bookmakers and bettors strive to perfect a very similar skillset Written by Jay Jarrahi (@JayJarrahi) Being the book is the easy part: Bookmakers price to margins that immediately give the book an edge over the average bettor because the bettor is simply not informed or skilled enough to beat the book over the long haul. The average bettor doesn’t know or  care what percentage book he/she is backing against and is unlikely to know the math behind the positions they’ve supported, the margin they are up against, or the assessment of what they feel the true percentage chance should be for what they’ve bet. They’re simply having a bet for “the fun of it” or because it’s the World Cup or the NBA Finals or the Super Bowl or Wimbledon and they “always” have a bet that time of year. Losing money is a betting tradition for the average bettor and as touched upon in last week’s column, is why bookmakers will always thrive and exist. Having played both...

All odds courtesy of LVH ODDS TO WIN 2014 SUPER BOWL XLVIII @ METLIFE STADIUM — EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2014 SUPER BOWL XLVIII GAME LINE NFC AFC -1    TOTAL  51 SUPER BOWL PATRIOTS 5 49ERS 5 BRONCOS 5 PACKERS 12 SEAHAWKS 7 TEXANS 12 FALCONS 14 STEELERS 25 SAINTS 20 RAVENS 30 GIANTS 20 REDSKINS 35 BEARS 30 BENGALS 30 COWBOYS 35 CHARGERS 60 LIONS 60 VIKINGS 50 COLTS 35 PANTHERS 60 JETS 100 EAGLES 60 DOLPHINS 50 RAMS 50 BUCS 50 BROWNS 60 CHIEFS 60 TITANS 100 BILLS 100 CARDINALS 300 RAIDERS 200 JAGUARS 300 2014 NFC CONFERENCE 49ERS 5-2 PACKERS 6 SEAHAWKS 7-2 FALCONS 7 SAINTS 10 GIANTS 10 REDSKINS 17 BEARS 15 COWBOYS 17 LIONS 30 VIKINGS 25 PANTHERS 30 EAGLES 30 RAMS 25 BUCS 25 CARDINALS 150 2014 AFC CONFERENCE PATRIOTS 2 BRONCOS 9-4 TEXANS 5 STEELERS 11 RAVENS 13 BENGALS 13 CHARGERS 25 COLTS 15 JETS 45 DOLPHINS 23 BROWNS 25 CHIEFS 25 TITANS 45 BILLS 45 RAIDERS 90 JAGUARS 135...