We’ve all been in a pinch before, trying to cut corners for winning a bet when time was of the essence. During the 90’s we turned to posting forums for that information whereas now we lean on twitter to make ourselves a quick buck.  You see it all the time, followers jump from hot hand to hot hand aiming to find the never ending winning streak leading to endless envelope collection. However, there is no shortcut to winning and it’s definitely not this simple. Recognizing talent with a proven track record of winning takes attention to detail, especially in an environment like twitter where putting up a website, fabricating a record, and posting BS information can easily mislead the masses.  Just like handicapping games yourself, finding someone to follow for information (free or otherwise) takes due diligence especially when your bankroll is on the line.  Here are a few do’s and don’ts when looking for someone to lead you to the promised land. Do: Follow a handicapper for an adequate stretch of time before actually betting his or her information blindly. Anyone can get hot for days, weeks, or even a month but how do they respond when things start going south? Handling losses is a big part of winning long term so until you see someone respond to adversity be cautious.  Remember the best entry point to tail is when a proven capper has hit rock bottom rather than when he’s in the middle of a 12 game win streak. Don’t: Jump from handicapper to handicapper trying to capitalize on multiple hot streaks. No one is omniscient, normally by the time you find a new “emerging” capper he’s at the tail end of his streak. The last thing you want to do is be...

Special thanks to NBA guru Rob Perez for forwarding his compiled photo gallery of David Stern images posted on the net during his reign.  It’s only fitting as free agency kicked off today to pay homage to a man known for blocking trades, growing ratings, and navigating through a point shaving scandal. Words will not do this man justice, instead a photo journey through his time in the limelight was the only way to go. And then, who can forget the lasting images from draft...

I’m sure those of you in the US are delighted that betting in-play is gradually being introduced, as slow a process as it is, and as far behind in the delivery and options that are available in Europe. When bet in-play got off the ground in the UK 15 years ago the options were very limited but the sky now appears to be the limit. By Jay Jarrahi For an NFL match for instance you simply had the option to bet the game at half-time with a readjusted line (money line and handicap) that was set off the pre-match line. It provided a brief opportunity to hedge a pre-match selection or get involved in the game for the first and last time.  Over the 15 year period since then, rival companies have been in competition with each other to offer more and more games to bet on because they see opportunity in every sport. If a race is being run or a ball is being hit anywhere in the world, you can be sure that at least one betting company in the UK is trading it live. The demands on traders have increased dramatically, particularly in the case of soccer and tennis. When I started trading for a book my usual shift consisted of trading three soccer matches one after the other with decent sized breaks in between each game – (aside from half-time) and I always had access to live pictures for the game. In a matter of a few years those demands turned into up to twelve soccer matches a day or as many as seven to nine tennis matches during busy tournaments. Tennis events die down as the week progresses and tournament fields get whittled down but soccer is a never...

Click here to listen Your standard dose of weekly banter with the master of the midday Mark Rodgers. College win totals and projections for the 2013 season dominated discussion in a format you’ve come to expect from...

We’ve all seen them before; gamblers accustomed to betting their games online that aren’t quite ready for the bright lights of the sportsbook.  That’s more than ok, it’s a learning experience for every novice their first time and the only way to become a seasoned betting veteran is with experience.  Ask questions of the patrons around you, observe others behavior, and think before you make a final decision. However, there are some sure fire behaviors to avoid if you simply want to blend into the crowd instead of making yourself look like a jackass. That’s what I’m here for, to offer that sage advice. (Have your own ideas for behaviors people should avoid in the book? Send them here and we’ll update the list) Cheering at non critical junctures like the game depends on it.  Let’s not kid ourselves, every basket in the 1st quarter of a NBA game nor hit in the first inning of a baseball game warrants excessive jubilation. Enjoy a cocktail, save the excitement for when it matters most. Acting exasperated when expecting the ticket writer to know exactly what you mean when you ask ridiculous questions. This will get you dirty looks every time from the lifetime sportsbook employee. Try to have 1 or 2 short concise questions the staff can help you with in a timely manner, not a laundry list of requests.  Just a quick word of advice: asking about “if” bets, reverses, or the infamous 1 team teaser will only draw the ire from seasoned staffers Treating the cocktail waitress like she’s your personal butler. The women that call cocktailing a career are there to serve your drinks, not clean up your personal space. Make sure you tip them well for each round (even if you...

You don’t always have to agree with people that have more industry experience but you should always listen. Sheldon Adelson is one of the richest men in the world and made his fortune as a visionary for the brick and mortar casino. Along with Steve Wynn, Adelson brought the casino business into the 21st century and his forward thinking has made Las Vegas Sands one of the world’s largest casino corporations. Last week he had some strong comments about viability of online gambling, speaking out against it as a societal pariah. Adelson openly shared major concerns about the addictive nature of the hobby compared to the more traditional casino experience. I don’t profess to be a psychologist, I haven’t done in depth studies but I categorically disagree with Adelson. Our government’s job isn’t to protect us from ourselves, it should be to find sustainable taxable revenue streams directly responsible for job growth creation.  He clearly has a business model to protect as well so to dismiss that as potential subtext for his opinions is naive. Regardless of where you stand on this particular issue (in agreement with me or the casino giant), the interview with Adelson that aired on Bloomberg TV is worth...

Gamblers frequently bet on a feeling or gut instinct. Unfortunately your gut is far more irrational than you might think, utilizing ready made rules of thumb – known in psychology as heuristics – which can be unsuitable tools for successful betting. There is a very good reason we rely on heuristics – evolution. Our distant ancestors when faced with complex life-threatening problems didn’t have time to weigh up the situation, so developed quick-fire methods. Those that worked were passed down through generations, and we are still relying on them, often when we shouldn’t. Click here for full article Todd’s Take: First things first; if you’re not making this a regular stop on your daily journey to understand sports betting, you’re selling yourself short. Pinnacle has taken the forward thinking approach towards sports wagering turning it into a thinking man’s game, offering insightful articles about not only their bookmaking philosophies but other relevant industry topics daily. The article here discusses a lot of the concepts we accept as gambling doctrine, specifically the notion of trusting your gut over what the numbers tell you.  Concepts like anchoring, availability bias, and gambler’s fallacy all negatively impact our ability to process betting information because our brains are conditioned to remember what they want. We selectively recall certain aspects of games we’ve watched even though those moments probably aren’t indicative of the full body of work.  More often these tendencies aren’t consistent with becoming a long term profitable sports bettor.  One of the sharpest sports investors I interact with daily makes it a point to tell me if he ever trusted his gut he’d have been on the fast track to the poor house years ago. Your major takeaway in all of this is to recognize your own per-disposed biases. ...

Yesterday I went into great detail about how to interpret juice on a win total and exactly what it inferred regarding a bookmaker’s stance on a particular team.  My focus here is to share more of an insight into the thought process for how I went about setting a baseline win total to establish a number I felt comfortable having gamblers bet into for each team. First things first, it goes without saying schedule analysis in college football is the starting point for every win total. No matter how good or bad a team appears to be going into the season, if they play nothing but cupcakes compared to power programs it will get reflected in their totals.  I ascribe a win probability to each game on a team’s schedule allowing me to establish an overall “number” for each team.  It’s important to realize these are only baseline numbers for each side, adjustments are always required based on individual power numbers, public perception, and realistic season expectation.  The best numbers in the market aren’t the result of one oddsmaker’s work but rather should be a compilation from an established team (unfortunately this doesn’t happen the way it should). For example here is what my win probability chart looks like for Texas A&M in 2013 Texas A&M Date Opponent Win % 31-Aug Rice 100 7-Sep Sam Houston 100 14-Sep Alabama 35 21-Sep SMU 100 28-Sep @Arkansas 80 12-Oct @Ole Miss 60 19-Oct Auburn 85 26-Oct Vanderbilt 85 2-Nov UTEP 100 9-Nov Mississippi St 85 23-Nov @LSU 50 30-Nov @Missouri 80 Total 960 Notice that the final number is 960, simply translated to 9.6 as a baseline number.  Further digging into their schedule reveals that Texas A&M will only be dogs 2 (maybe 3 absolute max) at most this...

ODDS TO WIN 2014 BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ROSE BOWL — PASADENA, CA MONDAY, JANUARY 6, 2014 Prices current as of 6/24 Courtesy of LVH ALABAMA 5-2 OREGON 7 GEORGIA 12 TEXAS A&M 12 OHIO ST 5 LSU 15 SOUTH CAROLINA 15 FLORIDA 18 CLEMSON 25 TEXAS 30 OKLAHOMA ST 30 STANFORD 20 NOTRE DAME 50 MICHIGAN 30 USC 60 UCLA 40 FLORIDA ST 25 OREGON ST 100 ARIZONA ST 100 NEBRASKA 40 OKLAHOMA 50 LOUISVILLE 30 BYU 200 VIRGINIA TECH 200 TEXAS TECH 500 ARIZONA 500 BOISE ST 100 MICHIGAN ST 100 UTAH 100 TCU 100 BAYLOR 300 NORTH CAROLINA 100 ARKANSAS 300 WISCONSIN 100 NORTHWESTERN 100 WASHINGTON 100 FRESNO ST 300 CINCINNATI 200 VANDERBILT 500 MISSOURI 500 OLE MISS 500 AUBURN 500 TENNESSEE 500 NORTH CAROLINA ST 1000 KANSAS ST 300 GEORGIA TECH 500 MISSISSIPPI ST 1000 IOWA 1000 WEST VIRGINIA 1000 FIELD...

There’s no way around it; win totals are a major topic of discussion among bettors and sports media members. During the dog days of summer we long for toe to meet leather signifying the start of football season. From the moment the Superbowl ends, football bettors seek milestones; win totals provide the light at the end of the tunnel.  Anything to grab onto as tangible proof football season is right around the corner. However this article isn’t about the surge in popularity of win totals but rather to help explain how to read into the lines and understand what the sportsbook’s numbers are telling you. Yesterday marked the release date for a number of win totals from 5Dimes for the upcoming season. Mixed in the batch were high profile programs like Alabama and Notre Dame but also the likes of Indiana and Central Florida (save your breath Hoosier trolls).  Given that 5Dimes were first to market, their oddsmakers elected to employ .40 cent lines on each win total.  What do I mean when I say .40 cent lines?  When I use the term .40 cent line that explains the differential between the price you’d need to lay to back the favorite compared with the price you could take when supporting the underdog.  Plain and simple; larger the differential between a favorite and underdog, the higher the hold for the house making it disadvantageous for bettors.  To put it in perspective, the most competitive shops booking baseball use a .10 cent line (-115/+105) making it the lowest hold sport of any major market. Below is a chart to help explain the juice generally accepted within the industry for betting each sport. If your shop doesn’t offer these prices (or something similar), begin exploring other betting...

All good things must end and last night the 2012-2013 NHL season came to a screeching halt in the most improbable of fashions. Marred by a lockout to start the year, the league did everything they could to cram a full year’s worth of entertainment into a 48 game sprint despite Gary Bettman’s best efforts to continue ruining the game. As always, the postseason was filled with drama, storylines, and finishes even the most creative writer couldn’t script. Credit Hockey Night in Canada for putting together a montage set to the Rolling Stones that puts our college basketball tradition of One Shining Moment to...

The season is winding down and tonight offers one of the last opportunities to make money on the ice. Here’s our preview for Game 6 along with plenty of prop bets available from your local offshore bookmaker. Mon 6/24 3001 CHI scores first -110 8:00PM 3002 BOS scores first -120 Mon 6/24 3003 CHI scores last -115 8:00PM 3004 BOS scores last -115 Mon 6/24 3005 Score in first 10:00 +120 8:00PM 3006 No score in first 10:00 -150 Mon 6/24 3007 Team to score first wins game -280 8:00PM 3008 Team to score first loses game +220 Mon 6/24 3009 CHI on power play first -115 8:00PM 3010 BOS on power play first -115 Mon 6/24 3011 CHI/BOS total goals odd -290 8:00PM 3012 CHI/BOS total goals even +230 Mon 6/24 3013 CHI total goals odd -115 8:00PM 3014 CHI total goals even -115 Mon 6/24 3015 BOS total goals odd -115 8:00PM 3016 BOS total goals even -115 Mon 6/24 3101 P.Kane goals+assists -110 8:00PM 3102 D.Krejci goals+assists -120 Mon 6/24 3103 P.Sharp goals+assists -110 8:00PM 3104 M.Lucic goals+assists -120 Mon 6/24 3105 B.Bickell goals+assists +100 8:00PM 3106 B.Marchand goals+assists -130 Mon 6/24 3107 B.Seabrook goals+assists +140 8:00PM 3108 T.Seguin goals+assists -170 Mon 6/24 3109 D.Keith goals+assists +100 8:00PM 3110 Z.Chara goals+assists...