Typical Friday banter between Mark Rodgers and myself. NFL futures galore on this pod as we look into a few of the dark horses along with teams probably getting more attention than they should headed into 2013. Click here to...

Betegy, a startup here in the Polish capital, is claiming just that on some games in major European and and global leagues. CEO and founder Alex Kornilov, a Ukrainian who came to Poland to study, said the company has just signed a deal with a U.S. broadcaster to provide forecasts for its soccer service. The details will be made public shortly. The company is working on a prediction engine that will be able to forecast the score. At the heart of the company is an algorithm that takes in a huge range of factors. These include not just past performance, but things such as whether it is the manager’s birthday, a significant home match, even the weather. “Imagine that, say, Manchester United is playing Liverpool,” said Mr. Kornilov. “We know that Manchester United has more players who can strike from long distance. Usually in poor weather the manager will tell players to shoot from further out. Knowing these small things allows us to tweak the analysis in favor of Manchester United.” Click here to read full article Todd’s Take: I won’t automatically rule out the accuracy of a math model when it comes to predicting sports scores because you never know where the next great innovation will come from. However, the fact this start-up is looking to sell their model publicly rather than bet the games the algorithm produces instantly makes me skeptical.  Put simply if you have a secret sauce that can keep making money, you don’t run to share it with the world unless you have something to...

Chad Millman and I had the chance to impart wisdom on an aspiring sports bettor with a strong financial background looking to make a career change.  Pretty sure I did nothing but rain on his parade but the discussion shed light on a number of topics both Chad and I encounter daily in emails about the viability of “turning pro” and what it takes for those looking to chase the dream. Click here to...

Today’s guests on Sportsbook Radio included Chuck Esposito of Caesars and Stations fame along with handicapping wizard Marc Lawrence. The conversation kept moving as we covered anything and everything from the Puig impact on Dodger futures to the season prospects for Notre Dame & BYU along with the other CFB independent programs. Click here to listen (Link is for July...

Which of the following wins was worth more: October 21, 2012 at Gillette Stadium: New England 29, New York Jets 26 October 24, 2011 at EverBank Field: Jacksonville 12, Baltimore 7 The answer is a tie, as both victories were worth exactly one win. But if we were to rephrase the question and ask which win was more impressive, the result would bring an entirely different answer altogether. The Patriots came significantly short of covering the 11-point spread in the team’s three-point win over the 3-3 Jets, while the Jaguars posted a five-point victory as 10-point underdogs over the 4-1 Baltimore Ravens. Using the Las Vegas point spread as our key factor, Jacksonville’s win would be deemed more impressive. Click here to read the full article Todd’s Take: As Joe highlights in his article, we don’t care about wins and losses in the desert: only covers.  Through a back and forth dialogue between Joe and myself we struggled to figure out which statistic was more indicative of dominance: avg margin of cover or ATS W/L record.  Upon further review I’ll contend domination doesn’t rely on the margin of victory but rather overall record. Yes, the Ravens +11.7 margin looks tremendous but their record of 3 games over .500 is not nearly as impressive as Seattle’s home dominance.  However, playing at home in the role of underdog is much different than that of a favorite and we see that reflected in both team’s avg spread.  I personally believe the biggest takeaway from Joe’s findings is the ability to identify teams that exceed expectations at home regularly only to disappoint on the road. The name of the game in sports betting is buy low, sell high and more often than not, the team that buries the number one week regresses...

Written by Jay Jarrahi In mid-March while listening to Chad Millman’s Behind the Bets podcast, the topic of discussion was fantasy sports versus sports betting and whether the two had any similarities or connections. On the show Millman invited guests Jeremy Levine and Peter Jennings from Star Street – a daily fantasy game – as well as New York Times author Joshua Brustein to discuss the issues at hand. Sports betting has not been granted the nationwide go ahead in terms of online gaming yet the fantasy games with monetary prizes behind them have received the green light. The distinction being made is that fantasy sports are a game of skill while sports betting are games of luck. To believe such a distinction is true there is a fair chance that you also believe in Santa Claus. That’s nothing to be ashamed of if you’re still nine years old, but for any adult who has assessed the situation the excuses for believing so are paper thin. During the episode Levine and Jennings contend that daily fantasy games are not the same as sports betting because there is a skill required in assessing value and projections in the daily performance of players. They believed fantasy sports can clearly be defined as a skill game – which I, too, believe – as the better players consistently beat lesser players. In essence the cream always rises. That is indeed true over the long haul but it’s also entirely true for sports betting. There is a reason professional gamblers are professional gamblers and not your average square bettor, due to the fact they consistently find value in the market and beat lines long term. To believe there is a distinction in the skills required to be a good...

I filled in on Sportsbook Radio today to do a little guest hosting for Brian Blessing. Industry experts Payneinsider (9 minute mark) and Warren Sharp (35 minute mark) stopped by to share their football betting expertise with a major focus on how they go about doing “the heavy lifting” during the offseason to make themselves successful all fall long. Click here to listen (show is the link for July...

I had the privilege of attending the Macrosports Conference over the weekend and came away with some very interesting conclusions that can (and should) be applied to all sports betting.  I figured the title of this article would lead readers to think I planned to delve into the age old adage about the best bettors not having favorite teams; eliminating sentimentality and fan bias from the equation entirely. While those of you that have read my work know that to be my mantra, it’s far from the focal point of this piece.  Instead, remaining objective in this context applies to how we analyze data or choose to observe a series of events. The key note speaker for Sunday’s conference was Nate Silver.  While Nate’s best known for his predictive political models, the concepts he applies in that arena can readily be adapted to sports betting as well.  When the end goal is building an objective model, the architect shouldn’t approach the situation searching only for data to support his initial hypothesis.  There’s a surplus of information right at our fingertips and it’s easy to seek out the desired result if you’re hand selecting information.  This concept resonates with every gambler who watches games always believing he/she had the right side. Whether it’s a fumble, ticky tack foul, or a blown call casual bettors can’t see past their vested interest to gain the useful takeaways from a game that will make them money in the future. If bettors don’t remain objective when analyzing the data points, they’re bound to make the same mistake with that exact same team again. When viewed through a specific lens, our analysis is inevitably shaped to support preconceived notions. The easiest way to illustrate this concept in sports handicapping is...

Bruce Marshall and I took time this week to talk about our win total philosophies. Above and beyond breaking down certain sides, you need a game plan to approach the betting board if your goal is long term...

Oddsmakers at online bookmaker Sportsbook.com have closed ESPY Awards futures bets due to suspicious betting activity from the New York and Connecticut areas. (story courtesy of Jon Campbell at Covers) ESPN is headquartered in Bristol, Connecticut and holds an annual award show – The ESPYS – to honor the top teams and athletes around the world from the past year. Oddsmaker Mike Perry told Covers an unusual amount of betting activity came in on LeBron James to win best male athlete and the Miami Heat to win best team. Click here for the rest of the story Todd’s Take: I’m the biggest proponent of the mentality “if you can put a number on it, let people bet it.” However, even my zeal for booking the absurd and encouraging others to do so stops with award shows. I’ve never once trusted the integrity of any event where someone actually knows the winner ahead of time.  ESPY’s, Oscars, etc there’s just no benefit to the house for hanging odds on these events once the ballots have been tabulated.  I won’t claim to have inside knowledge on the Nevada Gaming Control Board’s agenda but don’t count on seeing bets of this nature accepted anywhere in Vegas if there’s even the slightest hint of...

Grant Wahl took the opportunity to interview a soccer tipster from the UK named George Dempsey. It’s not so much the article itself that peaked my interest (we hear supposed success stories about pro bettors all the time) but rather a keen observation Wahl made about sports in general and it’s interconnectedness with gambling. I started out this tale with a simple question: Is there anyone out there that makes genuine money betting on Major League Soccer? It’s an important question for any league that wants to make it in America. Whether you advocate gambling or not, the betting industry — legal and otherwise — is a huge factor in the success of the NFL, international soccer and plenty of other sports around the world. Until I started working on this piece, I had never met anyone who bet on MLS games. Granted, I’m not a gambler, but I was still curious. Who out there is betting on the U.S. soccer league? And does MLS’s single-entity system and tight salary cap (read: institutionalized parity) make it even harder to make money betting on games? Read full article here: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/soccer/news/20130625/mls-gambler-george-dempsey/#ixzz2XxfrIzAG   Todd’s Take: Wahl’s second paragraph hits the story out of the park, answering the most important question of all. He directly ties the popularity of sports to gambling and the resulting increase in fan interest that comes from pervasive betting (are you listening Roger Goodell???).  Ratings are a byproduct of fan involvement which of course is stimulated by emotional and financial interest. Now, financial involvement can stem from fantasy sports, pools, or a laundry list of other possibilities but the root of it all is gambling drives popularity.  I know others commenting on the article yesterday took a much different point of view from...

After a pulsating 2013 NBA Finals series between the Heat and Spurs, in an exclusive inside look, Pinnacle Sports’ lead NBA trader takes an in-depth look back at the odds movement over the seven games and explains what may have influenced them, essential insight for any NBA bettor. Desperation a key factor in odds movement One of the key factors affecting the spread in the NBA Finals was the level of desperation of a team, rather than a perceived momentum for the team that had previously won. A key factor affecting the spread was desperation. This was strongly demonstrated before Game 4, when Miami were in a desperate situation (2-1 down, playing in San Antonio and set to stay there for Game 5). The Heat needed to win, and coupled with their small perceived skill advantage over the Spurs, were set as 1-point favourites. Had Miami been in less of a desperate position, a different handicap could have been set. The exception to this “desperation” advantage was in Game 5, where despite having evened the series, Miami were roughly the same 1-point favourite as they were going into the need-to-win Game 4. In fact, if desperation were to favour anyone, it would be the Spurs, as Game 5 was their last shot at home. Instead, having leveled the series, public confidence in Miami’s Big Three – Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade – may have returned to shape that market. Click here to read full article Todd’s Take: Understanding where an oddsmaker is coming from when he sets a number is of huge value to bettors.  Everyone quantifies factors differently from the very real impacts of home court to the more intangible factors like desperation and motivation.  This is where the best handicappers...