LVH released their full slate of college win totals today. The market isn’t set until normal limits are accepted at all books and now we can begin to use these as the industry’s gold standard Click here for game of the year lines ALABAMA 11.0 OVER -155 UNDER +135 OHIO ST 10.5 OVER -160 UNDER +140 OREGON 11.0 OVER -110 UNDER -110 LOUISVILLE 10.5 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN BOISE ST 9.5 OVER -140 UNDER +120 CLEMSON 9.5 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN FLORIDA ST 10.0 OVER -160 UNDER +140 TEXAS 9.5 OVER +105 UNDER -125 BYU 7.5 OVER +145 UNDER -165 GEORGIA 9.5 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN NEBRASKA 9.5 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN SOUTH CAROLINA 9.5 OVER EVEN UNDER -120 STANFORD 9.5 OVER +110 UNDER -130 FLORIDA 9.0 OVER EVEN UNDER -120 LSU 8.5 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN MIAMI FL 8.5 OVER +130 UNDER -150 NOTRE DAME 8.5 OVER +110 UNDER -130 OKLAHOMA ST 9.5 OVER -120 UNDER EVEN TCU 8.0 OVER -130 UNDER +110 TEXAS A&M 9.5 OVER -110 UNDER -110 USC**** 9.5 OVER -110 UNDER -110 ARIZONA ST 8.0 OVER +115 UNDER -135 MICHIGAN 8.5 OVER +120 UNDER -140 MICHIGAN ST 8.5 OVER -150 UNDER +130 OKLAHOMA 9.0 OVER +125 UNDER -145 OLE MISS 7.5 OVER +120 UNDER -140 OREGON ST 8.0 OVER +110 UNDER -130 UCLA 6.5 OVER -155 UNDER +135 WISCONSIN 9.0 OVER -110 UNDER -110 KANSAS ST 7.0 OVER -130 UNDER +110 WASHINGTON 7.5 OVER +145 UNDER -165 NORTHWESTERN 7.5 OVER EVEN UNDER -120 UTAH 5.5 OVER -110 UNDER -110 NEVADA 6.0 OVER +125 UNDER -145 UNLV 3.5 OVER -145 UNDER +125 **ALL TEAMS MUST PLAY 12 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION** ****USC MUST PLAY 13 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR...
Press Box with Peter Burns & Mark Kizla...
posted by Todd
Kiz, Peter, Oren, and I tackled the legal issues that surround sports betting in this country. Of course we didn’t handle it dryly like politicians but rather with a flair distinctly “Press Box.” Click here to...
Dating Conundrum
posted by Todd
We asked… and well, you answered. Frankly I think a lot of you on twitter are sick and that’s exactly why I love each and every one of you goofy bastards. Trying to find the balance between dating and gambling can be difficult so inevitably there are great stories how bettors test out their ladies or “compromise.” I’ve protected the identity of 2 authors however the 3rd entry went so far as to send in a video which is simply awesome. Bettor 1 I am 2-0 in betting on the girls home team after first dates. The first bet was on the Twolves after going on a first date with a girl from Minnesota. Fortunately the second was a more memorable story; I went out with a girl from Texas to a nice saturday brunch spot. We got out of brunch only to see I had a miserable college football day. Of course I was buzzed after the drinks and realized the next game on the slate was Texas vs Oklahoma St. I’d been leaning Oklahoma St all morning but was kinda feeling a little love in the air so had to test it out by putting a large wager on UT. Texas ended up with a miracle win and cover; of course this relationship lasted about a year. Honestly not sure she would have been granted a 2nd date if Texas let me down but i had to keep riding the good luck charm as long as it lasted. Bettor 2 Honestly this is the hardest part about sports betting. It is so easy to get wrapped up in it because it is so interesting to watch if what you handicapped and predicted actually plays itself out on the field. The most important...
Video: NFC West Preview...
posted by Todd
I dare someone to argue that there is a deeper division than the NFC West in 2013. Ok, maybe the NFC South will be more hotly contested but their best 2 teams won’t compete with the Seahawks and 49ers. Will we see sophomore slumps from both QB’s?...
Video: AFC West Preview...
posted by Todd
We know who the top dog is heading into the 2013 season. However, Kenny White believes its one of the other 3 teams in the division that will be the real money maker this season. Who is it? You’ll have to watch to find...
3HL – Nashville...
posted by Todd
This week’s segment came live from SEC media days…no I didn’t get the invite although it’s debatable which city is hotter this time of year between Hoover, Alabama and Vegas. Plenty of CFB talk and futures discussion, kickoff can’t get here soon enough. Click here to...
Motivation
posted by Todd
When competition reaches it’s highest levels, any edge—no matter how small—can have a significant influence on the outcome of a sporting event. Even in the league where teams only play a 16-game schedule, discrepancies in motivation are evident and have an impact on the final score of NFL contests. For those of us who are concerned with the ultimate margin of victory, this can make all the difference. Follow the Author Justin Zovas on twitter Rivalries, past performance, and a myriad of scheduling factors cause a team’s effort and focus to fluctuate from week to week. The point is: Over the course of a season, matchups arise where one team is more motivated to win than its opponent. Identifying such situations and investing in these teams when the market fails to account for psychological intangibles can be profitable. Here are three trends that capture situations where a team has a motivational edge. Notice these are far from guaranteed; just general trends that have proved to be long-term winners over a fairly large sample size. Data goes back to 1989 and is courtesy of KillerSports.com. Underdogs that are coming off back to back losses of 14 or more points are 158-129-9 (.551) ATS. Fading a road favorite in a non-conference matchup that is facing a divisional opponent the following week is 110-89-5 (.553) ATS. Teams are 368-308-23 (.541) ATS when facing a divisional opponent after that opponent beat them in both matchups the previous season. Such success over large sample sizes indicates that the market is slightly inefficient when accounting for discrepancies in motivation and also tends to overreact to recent poor performances. It’s important to remember, however, that each individual matchup is unique and it would be imprudent to blindly follow these trends. For...
Inside Info
posted by Todd
In February on r/SquaredCircle, Reddit’s pro wrestling forum, one poster kicked off a “prediction series,” asking users to pick who they expected to win at that week’s Elimination Chamber pay-per-view event. The winner was a user named “Dolphins1925,” who posted just minutes before the start of the event, and nailed the results of every single match. It was the first sign that WWE had sprung a leak. “I will win this guaranteed,” Dolphins1925 wrote as he made his picks. “I know all the winners.” That sort of confidence in itself isn’t unusual; neither is someone scoring 100 percent on his predictions. Pro wrestling is fairly predictable. Pay attention to who’s being pushed and who’s being buried, combine that with dirtsheet rumors on what storylines are coming down the pipe, and you can get a pretty good sense of what’s going to happen at any given event. No, what’s weird about Dolphins1925’s perfect slate is that he made his picks for the next pay-per-view, and the next, all the way down to last night’s Money in the Bank event, and he’s been completely right, every single time. He’s 38 for 38 in predicting the results of matches. He’s not just some fan guessing. He knows WWE’s plans. Click here to read full article Todd’s Take: Ah yes, the long standing debate of inside information and the ramifications it has not only on sport itself but also the betting line. I’m not a WWE fan by any stretch but this just confirms what we already knew; the sport is entertainment and should be treated as such. I think the most compelling component of the article is that this information is leaking to betting markets. For everyone that looks down their nose at corruption in sport, who...
Video: ASG Preview
posted by Todd
There are no secrets for handicapping the All Star Game but that didn’t stop Kenny White and I from getting you prepared for it. My picks on the game? Strong leans to both the National League and the over if you’re betting the mid-summer...
Odds to win the Open Championship...
posted by Todd
BRITISH OPEN MUIRFIELD – GULLANE, EAST LOTHIAN, SCOTLAND JULY 18-21, 2013 (all odds courtesy of the LVH) ODDS TO WIN: TIGER WOODS 13/2 RORY McILROY 20/1 ADAM SCOTT 20/1 JUSTIN ROSE 20/1 LEE WESTWOOD 25/1 LUKE DONALD 25/1 PHIL MICKELSON 20/1 SERGIO GARCIA 30/1 JASON DAY 25/1 CHARL SCHWARTZEL 40/1 GRAEME McDOWELL 25/1 ERNIE ELS 25/1 BRANDT SNEDEKER 30/1 DUSTIN JOHNSON 30/1 PADRAIG HARRINGTON 50/1 LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 50/1 RICKIE FOWLER 40/1 MATT KUCHAR 40/1 JASON DUFNER 50/1 HUNTER MAHAN 50/1 IAN POULTER 40/1 HENRIK STENSON 40/1 THORBJORN OLESEN 100/1 NICOLAS COLSAERTS 50/1 WEBB SIMPSON 60/1 MARTIN KAYMER 50/1 KEEGAN BRADLEY 60/1 BUBBA WATSON 60/1 JIM FURYK 80/1 BILLY HORSCHEL 80/1 MATTEO MANASSERO 60/1 FRANCESCO MOLINARI 80/1 ANGEL CABRERA 100/1 ZACH JOHNSON 60/1 PETER HANSON 125/1 NICK WATNEY 80/1 BO VAN PELT 125/1 BILL HAAS 80/1 GEOFF OGILVY 125/1 BERND WIESBERGER 125/1 GEORGE COETZEE 125/1 BRANDEN GRACE 60/1 FREDDIE JACOBSON 125/1 MARTIN LAIRD 100/1 PAUL LAWRIE 100/1 THOMAS BJORN 50/1 PAUL CASEY DNQ TIM CLARK 150/1 ROBERT KARLSSON 150/1 K.J. CHOI 125/1 GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 150/1 CARL PETTERSSON 150/1 RYAN MOORE 125/1 CAMILO VILLEGAS 200/1 MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ 150/1 RETIEF GOOSEN DNQ RICHARD STERNE 80/1 ALEXANDER NOREN 125/1 JAMIE DONALDSON 100/1 RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO 200/1 JOHN SENDEN 200/1 SCOTT PIERCY 200/1 ROBERT GARRIGUS 250/1 BRIAN DAVIS 200/1 SHANE LOWRY 100/1 RICHIE RAMSAY 200/1 BEN CURTIS 200/1 STEWART CINK 150/1 THOMAS AIKEN 200/1 MARCEL SIEM 125/1 KEVIN STREELMAN 200/1 BUD CAULEY 300/1 DARREN CLARKE 250/1 VIJAY SINGH 250/1 JOSH TEATER 300/1 MICHAEL THOMPSON 300/1 HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 200/1 DAVID LYNN 200/1 DANNY WILLETT 250/1 LUKE GUTHRIE 250/1 THONGCHAI JAIDEE 200/1 JOHN HUH 250/1 D.A. POINTS 300/1 Y.E. YANG 300/1 LUCAS GLOVER 200/1 JUSTIN LEONARD 250/1 JOHN DALY WD KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT 300/1 MARCUS FRASER 300/1 SCOTT BROWN 500/1 JOHNSON...
Mistakes Bettors Make...
posted by Todd
We all make mistakes, it’s part of the learning curve associated with becoming a more successful bettor. Recognizing the error in our ways creates self awareness, forcing those committed to the craft into forging a gameplan for long term accomplishments. I’m not here to sugarcoat any of this; most gamblers never take the next step because they don’t want to put in the hard work it takes to recognize their shortcomings. Nothing on this list is earth shattering but here are a few common mistakes bettors of all ability levels make more often than they’re willing to admit. Leaving yourself limited outs You wouldn’t go into battle if you didn’t have the weapons you needed to win; why try and bet sports with just one set of numbers? In the current landscape, moving money offshore is a challenge and unfortunately we all can’t call Las Vegas home. However, there are other ways to give yourself various other sets of numbers, it just depends on how creative you want to get in your wagering. Forcing plays It’s Monday night, you’re at the bar with buddies and the Jets are playing the Titans. Well, there’s only one thing to do: close your eyes and fire! Nope, incorrect…don’t be afraid to let a game go. There will be a much better menu of offerings next week. Short cutting the process My buddy’s cousin’s uncle knows a guy who dated a trainer whose step dad is an assistant coach at Abilene Christian. Wait what? There are no short cuts to being a winner long term because as a wise man once said; the harder you work the luckier you get. Take time to specialize in a specific conference, region, or sport. The more command you have over a...
NFC East Preview
posted by Todd
We brought in the big guns, no not me, but Kenny White to break down the NFC East. Every division yields a plethora of wagering opportunities, from win totals to division odds, and the goal is to cover them all. Don’t believe me? Just...