Summer isn’t completely over just yet but the boys and I were itching to start talking college football so we jumped the shark. (No, not a sharknado). Conference previews are on the way in future weeks but to give ourselves a topic we attacked the Heisman head on in only a manner the OTL gang can do. Each week I’ll be uploading the pod here however you can catch us on itunes all fall long so make sure to subscribe here as...

Talk to anyone who bet on sports 10-plus years ago and they’ll reminisce about the time when realizing profits was far more attainable with the right information.  Back in the day, rogue numbers and middle opportunities were ever-present for savvy bettors to take advantage of and those with access to actionable knowledge enjoyed a pronounced edge over the competition.  Today—in a world dominated by technology where information becomes instantly ubiquitous—those with valuable insight have only minutes, if not seconds, after lines are posted to get their money down before the marketplace corrects itself. Written by Justin Zovas The NFL betting market has undoubtedly become more efficient over the years so this should cause lines to also improve in accuracy, right? This was my thought process which led me to the question: Are point spreads today better at predicting NFL contests than those 10 or 20 years ago? In short, the answer is no.  Here are the numbers… Seasons % of games within 3 pts. of line within 7 pts. within 10 pts. 1989-92 22.0% 45.2% 59.2% 1993-97 21.7% 45.1% 59.8% 1998-2002 20.8% 45.2% 60.2% 2003-07 21.6% 43.0% 57.5% 2008-12 20.3% 44.9% 57.8% *Note the point spreads used in this analysis are those that were bet into by the greatest number of people, not necessarily the opening or closing line. Obviously everyone wants to know what the takeaway is from this analysis.  Although the NFL betting community comes to a consensus line far more quickly in 2013, this agreement has not translated into an improved ability over the years to forecast the outcome of football games.  But enough of the college kid, let’s get an expert’s take on the topic. Todd’s Take:  Justin is completely right in his analysis that the market in 2013 corrects...

When it comes to NFL totals, the casual bettor is generally more inclined to wager on the over than they are the under. This information is neither groundbreaking nor surprising, as football fans are programmed to root for scoring. To bet an under is to go against human nature, with those who wade into the hopefully low scoring waters cursing every running back and receiver who dashes out of bounds and stops the clock. Many of us have developed our own approach to tracking under bets. Personally, I divide the game into 12, 5-minute intervals while continuously performing shoddy arithmetic to make sure my bet is on or close to a winning pace. Needless to say, I’m an absolute blast to be around in these aforementioned circumstances. But as we’ve discussed time and time again, the betting public—yeah, that’s the same betting public that prefers to back overs—is rarely successful turning a profit wagering on sports over the long haul. Sure, it’s more than possible to produce a highly successful week or even a very profitable month. But over the course of the five-month NFL season, continuously supporting overs will more than likely yield a negative result. With the start of the 2013 season just under two months away, let’s take a look at how NFL totals have played out over the last ten years in just Week 1. But before we get to the data, here’s a quick look at how NFL scoring has been on the rise since 2003. That must mean overs are hitting at a more consistent rate than unders, right? Actually… Click here to read more Todd’s Take: Betting sports is all about identifying opportunity, gaining that half step over the oddsmakers before they catch up to you.  Joe’s...

We’re seeing a disturbing trend start to emerge; the proliferation of docudramas, movies, and articles that lead to sensationalizing dishonest personalities within the sports betting industry.  The media consciously chooses to validate the wrong personalities, creating an aura around characters that are no better than modern day Carnies.  From erroneous stories about Floyd Mayweather’s obscene wagers to promoting individuals who don’t actually understand the business of betting nor actually bet themselves, the industry can’t move forward if portrayed in the current form. Over the weekend I came to learn of a new primetime reality show called Money Talks that will feature handicapper Steve Stevens who runs VIP Sports in Las Vegas.  There’s a laundry list of problems here but before I go off on my rant let me start with the most glaring of them all: CNBC calls this handicapper well known. Yet, oddly enough no one, and I mean no one, in the sports betting community I speak with daily knows who this guy is.  Before I get myself worked into a lather, here’s a nice little video to keep you entertained; the sizzle real from this “legendary” handicapper. Where do I start? There are so many things about this video that crack me up but nothing more galling than Stevens calling himself the “Michael Jordan of sports handicapping” by promising clients he’ll hit 70% + (a number even the computer group couldn’t achieve in its prime).  However, I have to be honest and say my biggest problem with this entire concept isn’t actually with Stevens.  When the day’s done, he’s trying to run a successful business taking advantage of the publicity afforded to him by a major news outlet to maximize revenues.  My disgust with the topic runs deeper and is with...

There are very few teams in sports I openly claim a sentimental attachment to as a bettor at this point in my career.  The US Men’s National Soccer team is the last frontier, making objective analysis hard to produce at points. While handicapping Sunday’s championship, I did happen to stumble across a bet that offers too much value for me to pass up but it definitely won’t leave anyone calling me patriotic. At the time of shooting Manager Jurgen Klinsman’s status for the game was in flux but with him being ruled out for the red card vs Honduras, I like my wager even...

Baseball futures and a ticket that may or may not endear me to the Tampa area Click here to listen (Part 1) College football games of the year discussion and quick hitting previews of FSU, UF, Miami, and USF Click here to listen (Part 2)...

Everyone in the sports betting industry struggles with a work/play balance. It just so happens dating becomes a topic for debate among sports bettors (in case you missed last week’s article).  Matt Youmans and Dave Cokin took it upon themselves to bring the article to life in today’s radio segment and what it led to was pure howls for all of us involved. Oh yea, we talked some CFB too. Click here to listen (Segment starts at the 10 minute...

For many, spring is the peak of optimism. It seems that each MLB season there are a few teams set to light the MLB on fire but when the season gets rolling fail to meet these lofty expectations – much is the case for fans of teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants. On the flip side, there are always a few teams that coming roaring out of the gates and take the whole league by surprise – we’re looking at you Pirates fans. We decided to look at pre-season win totals from LVH Superbook to gauge how teams have so far faired against expectations and what they need to do over the remaining games to meet these expectations. Click here for full article Todd’s Take: This is an excellent piece to give perspective on which regular season wins ticket holders should be pressing the panic button or flying high right about now.  Win totals are an increasing part of business for sportsbooks across all sports with baseball remaining third on the food chain behind both football varieties.  I think every bettor needs to think of the opportunity cost associated with tying up their funds for better than 6 mos on an even money proposition (credit players, well you’re a different breed). They’re a great way for the casual fan to keep interest but for those looking to turn over their money faster, it’s a delicate balancing act.  Return on investment should always factor into the equation when it comes to making long term decisions and only you know what ends up being best for your...

We’ve all used them before: online sportsbooks. It’s a major debate these days about how reliable they are and if consumers should trust them. I polled the social media community, here’s what they value most before consider moving their money...

We’ve all had those Vegas trips, yes those where we make “less than informed choices” on a variety of topics. Hell that’s part of why this city keeps its charm and remains an obvious top travel destination for letting off steam (among other things). I’ve lived here for 8 years now and the stories I hear about how people blow through money never cease to amaze me.  From strip clubs, to bar tabs, to other sordid pleasures, the opportunities are endless.  There are of course stories you share with family and friends but also those little anecdotes/brainstorms you keep from others to avoid embarrassment. Lucky for you, this is that list and while its not autobiographical, I’ve heard all of these recollections or lived through them in some capacity. Red hit 21 straight times on the roulette wheel, black was due! It was the perfect time to employ a Martingale system to recoup all my losses from the last 6 hours at the blackjack table. She told me she loved me; Cinnamon never tells her other Rhino clients that.  I don’t think it was too early in our relationship to buy her a diamond tennis bracelet when she asked for one at 6am. Everyone knows good teams don’t get swept in home series. It made perfect gambling sense to chase my losses from the entire trip on the Angels against the Astros. The 5 teams I bet were all ranked in the top 25 and had moneylines at -400 or higher; no idea how the parlay didn’t hit. My insurance should cover the morning after bill, my wife’s going to be pissed if she looks at the credit card statement but this option definitely beats a paternity suit. I only gambled as much as...

All odds courtesy of the LVH PGA CHAMPIONSHIP OAK HILL COUNTRY CLUB – ROCHESTER, NEW YORK AUGUST 8-11, 2013 ODDS TO WIN: TIGER WOODS                   9/2 PHIL MICKELSON               12/1 ADAM SCOTT                   15/1 JUSTIN ROSE                  20/1 LEE WESTWOOD                 25/1 RORY McILROY                 25/1 JASON DAY                    25/1 BRANDT SNEDEKER              25/1 SERGIO GARCIA                30/1 CHARL SCHWARTZEL             30/1 MATT KUCHAR                  30/1 HUNTER MAHAN                 40/1 LUKE DONALD                  40/1 GRAEME McDOWELL              40/1 DUSTIN JOHNSON               40/1 STEVE STRICKER               40/1 KEEGAN BRADLEY               40/1 JASON DUFNER                 40/1 BUBBA WATSON                 50/1 RICKIE FOWLER                50/1 ERNIE ELS                    50/1 IAN POULTER                  50/1 HENRIK STENSON               50/1 WEBB SIMPSON                 50/1 ANGEL CABRERA                60/1 ZACH JOHNSON                 60/1 NICOLAS COLSAERTS            60/1 MARTIN KAYMER                80/1 BILL HAAS                    80/1 JIM FURYK                    80/1 BILLY HORSCHEL               80/1 LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN             80/1 JORDAN SPIETH                80/1 PADRAIG HARRINGTON           80/1 NICK WATNEY                  80/1 FRANCESCO MOLINARI           80/1 RYAN MOORE                  100/1 HIDEKI MATSUYAMA            100/1 THORBJORN OLESEN            100/1 BO VAN PELT                 100/1 MATTEO MANASSERO            125/1 BRANDEN GRACE               125/1 MARTIN LAIRD                125/1 TIM CLARK                   125/1 FREDDIE JACOBSON            125/1 MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ        125/1 GEOFF OGILVY                125/1 K.J. CHOI                   125/1 CARL PETTERSSON             125/1 HARRIS ENGLISH              125/1 BERND WIESBERGER            150/1 GEORGE COETZEE              150/1 RICHARD STERNE              150/1 JONAS BLIXT                 150/1 THOMAS BJORN                150/1 RUSSELL HENLEY              150/1 JAMIE DONALDSON             150/1 MARCEL SIEM                 150/1 RYAN PALMER                 150/1 BOO WEEKLEY                 150/1 GRAHAM DeLAET               150/1 GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO   150/1 KYLE STANLEY                150/1 ROBERT GARRIGUS             150/1 SCOTT PIERCY                150/1 JOHN SENDEN                 150/1 DAVID TOMS                  150/1 KEVIN STREELMAN             150/1 ALEXANDER NOREN             150/1 PETER HANSON                150/1 Y.E. YANG                   200/1 VIJAY SINGH                 200/1 MARC LEISHMAN               200/1 CHARLES HOWELL III          200/1 MIKKO ILONEN                200/1 PAUL LAWRIE                 200/1 CHRIS WOOD                  200/1 JOHN HUH                    200/1 BRENDON DE JONGE            200/1 STEWART CINK                200/1 JIMMY WALKER                200/1 BEN CURTIS                  200/1 CHARLEY HOFFMAN             200/1 RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO        200/1 DAVID LYNN                  200/1 MICHAEL THOMPSON            200/1 SCOTT STALLINGS             200/1 DAVIS LOVE III              200/1 BUD CAULEY                  250/1 LUKE GUTHRIE                250/1...

2013 COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES OF THE YEAR from the LVH Click here for win totals FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 6, 2013 WAKE FOREST BOSTON COLLEGE -1 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2013 SOUTH CAROLINA GEORGIA -5 FLORIDA -6 MIAMI FL WEST VIRGINIA OKLAHOMA -16.5 TEXAS -6.5 BYU NOTRE DAME MICHIGAN -3 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2013 TCU -6 TEXAS TECH FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2013 AIR FORCE BOISE ST -19.5 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2013 UCLA NEBRASKA -7 ALABAMA -6.5 TEXAS A&M IOWA IOWA ST -1 OREGON ST -3 UTAH WISCONSIN ARIZONA ST -5 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2013 CLEMSON -9.5 NC STATE FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2013 BOISE ST FRESNO ST -2 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2013 UTAH BYU -5 ARIZONA ST STANFORD -8.5 MICHIGAN ST NOTRE DAME -5.5 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2013 VIRGINIA TECH -1 GEORGIA TECH FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2013 UTAH ST SAN JOSE ST -1 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2013 LSU GEORGIA -5.5 TEXAS A&M -14 ARKANSAS USC ARIZONA ST -2.5 OKLAHOMA NOTRE DAME -1 WISCONSIN OHIO ST -10.5 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2013 TEXAS -13.5 IOWA ST UCLA -1.5 UTAH FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2013 BYU -2 UTAH ST SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2013 TCU OKLAHOMA -7 NOTRE DAME -2 ARIZONA ST                            @ ARLINGTON, TX OHIO ST -7.5 NORTHWESTERN THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2013 RUTGERS LOUISVILLE -12 ARIZONA USC -10 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2013 TEMPLE CINCINNATI -17 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2013 TEXAS -2 OKLAHOMA                                @ DALLAS, TX FLORIDA LSU -3 TEXAS A&M -5.5 OLE MISS STANFORD -9.5 UTAH OREGON -12.5 WASHINGTON MICHIGAN -3 PENN ST BOISE ST -3 UTAH ST THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2013 MIAMI FL NORTH CAROLINA -3 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2013 CENTRAL FLORIDA LOUISVILLE -11.5 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2013 FLORIDA ST CLEMSON -1.5 FLORIDA -8 MISSOURI TCU OKLAHOMA ST -7 LSU -4 OLE MISS UCLA STANFORD -11.5 USC NOTRE DAME -3 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2013 KENTUCKY...