When you can think like a bookmaker, it gives you an edge as a bettor.  The goal is to factor every possible scenario into making smart investment choices so in turn when you understand how the other half operates, figuring out strategies to beat them is significantly easier.  Slightly confused with what I mean? This video will help. Looking for more helpful betting information? Click here for the ultimate in Industry Analysis...

Value is the NOW buzz word in sports betting. Its prevalent usage throughout social media reminds me of when people started saying dope, legit,  and stupid (synonym for good if anyone’s lost touch). Those words all crept into the common vernacular but unbeknownst to all of us at the time they were here to stay. Value as a piece of sports betting terminology is over used; having even become a crutch bettors some bettors use to insulate themselves from their poor investments. Depending on the skill level of the bettor, value takes on a number of different meanings. Normally it’s used to describe making a bet that has an implied expectation of success based purely on the current number.  Value shouldn’t be viewed as interchangeable with the term positive expectation unless you want to make yourself sound like a dunce when surrounded by an educated gambling public.  By grabbing a futures price at 75-1 before the market plummets to 25 or gobbling up the opening college football line at -20 knowing the price will close at -28 is value; betting the Charlotte Bobcats to win the NBA championship just because you have a price of 9000-1 is not.  Number grabbing in this fashion won’t automatically guarantee long term success without a plan of action but rather gives you an edge to maximize profits if you play your cards right. Given the futures example of beating the market, there’s no shame in diversifying your portfolio with a plethora of other futures knowing you already have an ace up your sleeve.  By grabbing the best prices, you’ll have options to bet a variety of other teams in the mix that still allow you to turn a profit.  Essentially you’re looking to invest in any commodity (team)...

Our female insider from a sports betting household explains how there is no “normal” come the fall… And it started!! Just as i was beginning to enjoy the lull and downtime of summer pre-season football and now the regular season crept up on me!! The start of football means a few things; Football is priority 1 on the daily to do list in my household and everything else, even birthdays, become secondary. Every day, Mon-Thurs is in preparation of NCAAF games on Friday and Saturday and let’s not even talk about what goes into the NFL. Instead of having a normal Sunday dinner where 2 lbs  of meatballs is sufficient, I need to start extra early and make about 6-7 lbs instead because now it’s just not the immediate family but rather all my fiance’s friends for dinner. The boys come over to drink all weekend and they’re hungry so like any good Italian wife, Sunday dinner and feeding them til they pass out is the only option. Remember how I said birthdays come second? Well lucky me was born on Sept 12th and my birthday usually falls right around opening weekend of the NFL season.  The choices I have  for a birthday dinner become the following: If i want to go out somewhere it has to be very close to our house or offer essential amenities like wifi and multiple tv’s so that the men who attend with wives or girlfriends can watch whatever games are on and make sure they get updates on injuries or line movement.  Once the big thrill of week 1 passes, each day takes on a different meaning. Monday: Play early lines, go through box scores, and most importantly avoid watching ESPN. Why you may ask? Well because it...

Everyone has called themselves a sports bettor at some point in time.  However, the reality is a lot of people just bet on sports, they’re not actually sports bettors and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with it.  I know what you’re thinking, what the hell is the difference between the two?  Sports bettors are those that consistently turn a profit by whatever means necessary whereas those who bet on sports treat the hobby more as recreation (like most of us do golf). This isn’t a cut and dry distinction but to help alleviate your concerns I’ve created a quiz;  depending on what you score, the answers will be crystal clear. If you answer yes to any of these questions, give yourself 1 point unless otherwise noted. Do you place more than 75% of your bets before the scheduled day of the game (yes, this includes baseball)? Can you quantify your edge before making a bet? Is keeping records to the penny something you see as essential to long term success? Do you recall your single biggest win and the teams it involved? Do the list of bad beats outnumber the  herculean comebacks (at least as far as you’re concerned)? Do you constantly seek new books (outs) to give yourself more shopping opportunities? Do you own multiple cell phones or batteries to make sure you always have a line of communication? Do the release of college football annuals and the Blue Ribbon Yearbook college basketball annual qualify as unofficial holidays for you? Do you let gambling dictate your social calendar? Do you deem betting on football more important than seeing your girlfriend (or boyfriend) from September to February? Have you denounced your favorite team because they’re historically bad against the spread? Do you call those that...

Futures are not truly efficient markets.  This isn’t an earth shattering realization for anyone that has come to Vegas wondering why the Cubs are listed at 15-1 to win the World Series while they have a win total that projects them 25th in the league.  In a futures pool it goes without saying there are boatload of teams to bet yet only 1 can win.  Depending on who you talk to about expected hold percentage (amount of each dollar wagered the house expects to keep), it should be 1% for each team in smaller markets and capped in that 30-35% range.  Meaning for pro sports when there are 30 teams vying for a title, books shouldn’t be collecting .50 cents on the dollar.  However, this is far from the case at a number of shops.  Rather than operate each futures pool like a truly efficient supply and demand market, the easy thing to do is just bring down prices on the commodities in demand while failing to make an effort to sell others.  This doesn’t hold true for every shop but as a bettor it’s your responsibility to identify competitive prices instead of claiming the books have an “ethical” obligation to offer fair value. Having worked in the casino business, both in the sportsbook and analytics, the buzz word was yield.  Whether it’s a table game’s limit, hotel room, or show ticket free market economics determine maximum efficiency is realized by selling the right product to the right person at the right price.  What does this mean? Nothing more than you don’t sell someone a hotel room for $59 a night if they’re willing to spend $109 because all you end up doing is leaving money on the table.  The exact same principles hold...

Our author chose to remain anonymous but clearly you can tell she speaks from firsthand experience after being inspired by this piece. The female psyche is something men don’t often understand but when a girl elects to willingly date (or marry) a degenerate, it gives the rest of us hope and we should cherish her viewpoint. From the outside looking in my life seems pretty normal; great fiancé , healthy baby, nice car, expensive jewelry, beautiful purses and clothes…But those things come with a price; the stress of dating a professional handicapper. Most girls know that guys love sports so they put up with a football game once a week or the occasional baseball/basketball game as the schedule dictates. Boy do they have it easier than me! My schedule (and every daily activity) revolves around sports seasons and more importantly the precise time lines come out. At times it gets beyond aggravating dating a professional; especially when you have to plan your wedding around the most important time of the year, FOOTBALL SEASON!!! Even though my life is constantly filled with craziness I’ve learned ways to “cope.” Rather then complain about his non stop schedule and phone calls, I’ve forced him to include me in his work through teaching so I can help him prep for upcoming sports seasons. Whether it be creating excel sheets, reading articles on specific teams, or more recently actually placing bets when the games of the year came out in June, I’m learning to be supportive of his occupation. Not many girls would be able to stick around this lifestyle once the initial excitement and romance is gone.  You come to realize that even though this guy is his own boss, his phone dings incessantly and there are always...

Prior to kickoff of yesterday’s Hall of Fame Game, I was inspired by some interesting dialogue on twitter that got me thinking.  As we all know, there’s a lot of misinformation out there regarding gambling terminology like “getting the best of the number” and what the phrase actually means. The short concise definition of the term is getting the most advantageous price in a given market for your side.  For example if you liked Miami last night, betting them +1.5 would have been the top of the market rather than at -3 where the game closed. Conversely, if you liked Dallas betting them -1.5 on the open was a worst case scenario compared to +3 right before the game started. Most of us have been trained to look for the 3,4,6,& 7 in football but there’s a lot more to understanding the concept of getting the best of the number than just that.  Each line move, across certain thresholds, changes the expected value of a bet.  It’s important to note that every sport is different so the thought process applied to betting football doesn’t apply to basketball where every half pt on both side and total can actually get sharp bettors off a game.  When you’re betting football, certain line moves change the way you approach a wager.  The line moving from PK to -1 or -1.5 to -2.5 during the regular season (in both college and pro) doesn’t change the handicap a fraction of what -2.5 to -3 or +3.5 to +3 does.  Preseason is slightly different given that coaches will do everything they can to avoid a tie score late and also because they may try and work on special teams, 2 pt conversions, or a laundry list of other unique situations....

We’re seeing a disturbing trend start to emerge; the proliferation of docudramas, movies, and articles that lead to sensationalizing dishonest personalities within the sports betting industry.  The media consciously chooses to validate the wrong personalities, creating an aura around characters that are no better than modern day Carnies.  From erroneous stories about Floyd Mayweather’s obscene wagers to promoting individuals who don’t actually understand the business of betting nor actually bet themselves, the industry can’t move forward if portrayed in the current form. Over the weekend I came to learn of a new primetime reality show called Money Talks that will feature handicapper Steve Stevens who runs VIP Sports in Las Vegas.  There’s a laundry list of problems here but before I go off on my rant let me start with the most glaring of them all: CNBC calls this handicapper well known. Yet, oddly enough no one, and I mean no one, in the sports betting community I speak with daily knows who this guy is.  Before I get myself worked into a lather, here’s a nice little video to keep you entertained; the sizzle real from this “legendary” handicapper. Where do I start? There are so many things about this video that crack me up but nothing more galling than Stevens calling himself the “Michael Jordan of sports handicapping” by promising clients he’ll hit 70% + (a number even the computer group couldn’t achieve in its prime).  However, I have to be honest and say my biggest problem with this entire concept isn’t actually with Stevens.  When the day’s done, he’s trying to run a successful business taking advantage of the publicity afforded to him by a major news outlet to maximize revenues.  My disgust with the topic runs deeper and is with...

We’ve all had those Vegas trips, yes those where we make “less than informed choices” on a variety of topics. Hell that’s part of why this city keeps its charm and remains an obvious top travel destination for letting off steam (among other things). I’ve lived here for 8 years now and the stories I hear about how people blow through money never cease to amaze me.  From strip clubs, to bar tabs, to other sordid pleasures, the opportunities are endless.  There are of course stories you share with family and friends but also those little anecdotes/brainstorms you keep from others to avoid embarrassment. Lucky for you, this is that list and while its not autobiographical, I’ve heard all of these recollections or lived through them in some capacity. Red hit 21 straight times on the roulette wheel, black was due! It was the perfect time to employ a Martingale system to recoup all my losses from the last 6 hours at the blackjack table. She told me she loved me; Cinnamon never tells her other Rhino clients that.  I don’t think it was too early in our relationship to buy her a diamond tennis bracelet when she asked for one at 6am. Everyone knows good teams don’t get swept in home series. It made perfect gambling sense to chase my losses from the entire trip on the Angels against the Astros. The 5 teams I bet were all ranked in the top 25 and had moneylines at -400 or higher; no idea how the parlay didn’t hit. My insurance should cover the morning after bill, my wife’s going to be pissed if she looks at the credit card statement but this option definitely beats a paternity suit. I only gambled as much as...

We asked… and well, you answered. Frankly I think a lot of you on twitter are sick and that’s exactly why I love each and every one of you goofy bastards. Trying to find the balance between dating and gambling can be difficult so inevitably there are great stories how bettors test out their ladies or “compromise.” I’ve protected the identity of 2 authors however the 3rd entry went so far as to send in a video which is simply awesome. Bettor 1 I am 2-0 in betting on the girls home team after first dates. The first bet was on the Twolves after going on a first date with a girl from Minnesota. Fortunately the second was a more memorable story; I went out with a girl from Texas to a nice saturday brunch spot.  We got out of brunch only to see I had a miserable college football day. Of course I was buzzed after the drinks and realized the next game on the slate was Texas vs Oklahoma St. I’d been leaning Oklahoma St all morning but was kinda feeling a little love in the air so had to test it out by putting a large wager on UT. Texas ended up with a miracle win and cover; of course this relationship lasted about a year. Honestly not sure she would have been granted a 2nd date if Texas let me down but i had to keep riding the good luck charm as long as it lasted. Bettor 2 Honestly this is the hardest part about sports betting. It is so easy to get wrapped up in it because it is so interesting to watch if what you handicapped and predicted actually plays itself out on the field. The most important...

We all make mistakes, it’s part of the learning curve associated with becoming a more successful bettor.  Recognizing the error in our ways creates self awareness, forcing those committed to the craft into forging a gameplan for long term accomplishments. I’m not here to sugarcoat any of this; most gamblers never take the next step because they don’t want to put in the hard work it takes to recognize their shortcomings.  Nothing on this list is earth shattering but here are a few common mistakes bettors of all ability levels make more often than they’re willing to admit. Leaving yourself limited outs You wouldn’t go into battle if you didn’t have the weapons you needed to win; why try and bet sports with just one set of numbers?  In the current landscape, moving money offshore is a challenge and unfortunately we all can’t call Las Vegas home. However, there are other ways to give yourself various other sets of numbers, it just depends on how creative you want to get in your wagering. Forcing plays It’s Monday night, you’re at the bar with buddies and the Jets are playing the Titans. Well, there’s only one thing to do: close your eyes and fire! Nope, incorrect…don’t be afraid to let a game go.  There will be a much better menu of offerings next week. Short cutting the process My buddy’s cousin’s uncle knows a guy who dated a trainer whose step dad is an assistant coach at Abilene Christian. Wait what? There are no short cuts to being a winner long term because as a wise man once said; the harder you work the luckier you get.  Take time to specialize in a specific conference, region, or sport. The more command you have over a...