The dummy move, or pump fake, is a maneuver sharp bettors have used since the advent of the modern sportsbook. Simply put they’ll bet the “wrong” side early in the week to start a number moving only to come back over the top with their true position closer to post time…and you thought bookmakers had it easy. Normally the booking curve for a sporting event starts with low limits when virgin lines are first released allowing for higher limits to be accepted as the market matures (note all sports are a bit different, football with a week between games provides the best example).  Before a betting pool has settled, bigger bets create a larger ripple effect meaning oddsmakers are likely to make stronger moves early  when a wager comes from a known customer.  Think of it like throwing a giant boulder into a small retention pond (bets on Monday) compared to that same boulder thrown into the Pacific Ocean (bets on Sunday). During the week money enters the betting pool for each game and lines begin to stabilize. While it’s not true for all books (some take the same size bets at any point), limits are typically increased Thursday/Friday. This is the time big bettors may start tipping their hand as to true positions.  The reason behind raising limits as the week progresses is straightforward; better information becomes readily available allowing sportsbooks to operate on a level playing field (relatively speaking) with sharper bettors, eliminating potential surprise injuries or changes in personnel sharps knew about since Monday. With the proliferation of sports screens it’s actually become easier for sharp bettors to dummy up the market.  They know full well certain books will mirror one another so rather than dummy up numbers at 6-8 books...

Paddy Public takes a bad line but lives to tell about it. You can now follow @paddy_public on twitter The day? January 1st 2014. The time? Mid-afternoon. The situation? I had woken up a bit later than usual due to the previous night’s festivities and had missed placing a bet on UGA/Nebraska under like I wanted too. As I sat watching the scoreless 1st first quarter roll on and the in-game total drop from 59 to 53 to 49 I was literally pulling my hair out knowing I had missed on what I figured was the biggest lock of New Year’s Day. After UGA kicked a FG to take a 3-0 lead at the start of the 2nd quarter I did what any smart bettor would do (Disclaimer: This is not what any smart bettor would do. In fact it is the exact opposite) and fired on the live in-game under at 44. Yes 44.5. Meaning I had taken a number approximately 17 points less than what it had closed at pre-game. But, the game was nearly a third of the way finished and there were still just three points scored so I figured I was golden. Of course you all know what happened next. Nebraska promptly scored a TD off of a muffed punt and the two teams combined for three more field goals to leave me with a halftime score of 10-9. Somewhat nervous, I looked to see what the 2H line was as I wanted to get out of my bet because the late flurry of scoring had me uneasy. The line was set at 26, setting the total at 45 for the game. No luck, I was stuck. The 3rd quarter brought more unwanted points for Paddy Public, highlighted by...

The names have been changed to protect the identity of both bettors caught in this exchange. The scary part is there’s a good chance you follow one of the character’s on twitter already.  Eventually we’ll get Paddy Public into the social media realm but for now he’s embarrassed by his “unorthodox” betting tendencies.  Don’t try any of this at home without the supervision of an adult but rest assured Paddy Public will regale you with plenty more tales in the coming weeks So as I said before, I have had the privilege over the past year to get to know some very successful sports bettors, one of whom also happens to be my neighbor. The reason I tell you this is because earlier this week I was over at his place watching the Beef O’ Brady Bowl and sitting on  an ECU ticket when the following conversation occurred after an ECU INT with 3:28 left (We’ll call him Sir Sharp): Paddy P: Yessss! Paddy public is back in business baby! Sir Sharp: What happened? Paddy P: ECU picked off Tettleton and Ohio got called for a personal foul after the play. ECU ball on the 25. I’m still alive! Sir Sharp: Christ you’re lucky. Paddy P: Lucky? I’m anything but lucky. ECU should be up 20 right now if they could convert a damn 4th down. Sir Sharp: Yea… Ok.  Weren’t they down 20-17 at the beginning of the quarter? More importantly what number do you have? It closed at -13.5. Or did you end up laying 14? Paddy P: Uhhh I don’t know. 14 I think? But I might have played them at -14.5. I’m not really sure, I bet it pretty early this morning. Sir Sharp: You don’t know what number you...

We all make resolutions every year…most of them we don’t have any intentions of keeping. Let’s make a change for the bettor (pun intended) starting in 2014...

My nickname is Paddy Public for a reason. For years I was the guy in the sports book wondering why his 3 team parlay of the biggest ML favorites wasn’t hitting and ripping up my Patriots -2.5 ticket because apparently that line wasn’t “a gift.” I was a chronic loser. However, I have been lucky enough over the past year or so to get to know some very successful bettors and because of that I have been able to shed some very poor gambling habits that used to drain my bankroll. While many who read this list might find these five things incredibly obvious, they weren’t obvious to me a year ago. I have forced myself to follow rules and as a result I have seen a tremendous shift when it comes to the amount of bets I win and lose. If it looks to be good to be true, it probably is: Vegas doesn’t make mistakes. No matter what you think you know or how big of a sports fan you might think you are whenever you see a line that makes you think “Wow that’s a gift,” stop what you’re doing, run to the window and immediately play the other side. I can’t even begin to imagine how many times I got burned taking a 10-3 team as a road favorite against a 3-10 team because I thought it was free money. Don’t chase: I could pay rent for a year with the amount of money I have thrown away chasing bets. I’d start off with Broncos -7, then make a live wager on Broncos -3 after they go down, then put even more on Broncos -7 2H down 7 because come on, Peyton Manning at home, no way he can lose...

There are rules to live by, unspoken or otherwise, for all walks of life. Sports bettors are no different Never ask another man how much he bets, let him indicate how bullish he is on a game by saying he bet 1x, 2x, etc.  Everyone’s bankroll is different but dollars wagered doesn’t indicate how talented a handicapper is when his primary goal is to stay within his means. Always reciprocate with those who share confidential information. Never say a game is in the bag until it’s officially over. There’s no faster way to get under a superstitious gambler’s skin than saying a game’s a winner before the clock hits triple zero Always remain humble, no matter how hot you get regression is right around the corner. Never say a line is a joke unless you’re willing to plow into it with your own money. Always remain confident, no matter how cold you are the cream always rises and the breaks will come. Never ask someone what they saw in a game once the outcome has been decided.  Anyone who has been in this business for a long time sees plenty of lopsided decisions against him and subsequently learns from those mistakes. Throwing salt in a fresh wound doesn’t help the cause. Always encourage others in the field to be more honest. Most gamblers lie so if a guy tells you when he wins or when he loses it’s a sign of being humble.  The only guy who never loses is the dude at the water cooler every Monday morning bragging about his record yet he still keeps working at a job he hates. Never trash another handicapper or take delight in their misfortune. There will always be bettors/posters/handicappers we don’t like but the karma...

Being emotional is part of what we enjoy as fans but it’s the antithesis of what makes for a good level headed bettor. Coming in with bias or holding grudges against certain teams will separate you from your bankroll rather quickly. Here’s my take on some of the pitfalls you should try to avoid if you’re attempting to take gambling to the next...

As most of you that have read my work and seen my contributions to the sports betting community on twitter realize, part of my focus has always been on educating the betting public.  Whether it’s the more basic concepts the seasoned veterans take for granted or complex theories on identifying an edge, social media has bridged the gap between novices and professionals faster than I ever could have anticipated.  One term that gets tossed around with alarming regularity is sharp money.  I’ll be the first to say each week when I share my Sunday Pros vs Joes tweets or discuss line movement during the week I often ignore the in-depth explanation thats relevant to explaining exactly what I mean when I say sharp money. Every dollar in the sports betting market is not created equally. Any bettor or oddsmaker who tells you otherwise won’t have a long career on either side of the counter.  There are advantaged bettors out there and while their aren’t a ton of them, the sharpest bookmakers respect and value their input.  Everyone knows the name Billy Walters but he’s not the only guy out there capable of moving lines.  Plenty of other sharp bettors who may only bet 3k to 5k a game can walk into a local sportsbook here in town only to have their bet refused entirely or scaled back to lesser limits.  The smart bookmaker identifies those with an edge allowing them to bet only to move the market as soon as bet has been placed.  This example helps explain the concept of “reverse line movement” whereby a line moves against the high volume of public tickets.  Books adjust prices based on sharp gamblers bets because they have a history of beating the market and being...

We all know their kind, we come across them every day. It doesn’t matter if you bet $2 parlay cards or throw around bricks of high society on NFL football like Floyd Mayweather, the longer you’re in this field you inevitably run into characters whenever you mention the word pointspread.  Don’t take this personally, I mean afterall this is as auto-biographical as any piece you’ll see me write so for all my close friends both in the industry this piece is for you. Degenerate – If you fall into any 6 categories or more… (thanks to Jake Barnes for this one) Whiner – He is the ABSOLUTE WORST to watch games with because he’ll find something to bitch about all the damn time.  Whether it’s a call, turnover, or coaching blunder he’s going to find something that’s a grave injustice impacting him and only him.  He can have 3 teams covering by 21+ pts and all he focuses on is his team electing to punt on 4th down with 4 minutes left fearing the world’s most improbable backdoor. Superstitious – He sits in the same seat, wears the same jersey, or has the same pre-game meal all fall long like he’s actually playing in the game. Having fun with bettors like this is an endless source of enjoyment. Kindly explain to your buddy who fits this criteria he can’t jinx outcomes 2,000 miles away from a game venue with a simple text/tweet. (I may or may not have to look in the mirror for this stereotype) System – It would be one thing if this was driven by numbers or statistics but it’s something more in his mind; intangibles.  He spends his time looking for signs from the cosmos to steer him to the...

We all get our start in sports betting somewhere.  Mine came back in junior high when I stumbled upon Sagarin & Massey ratings thinking I’d found a perfect formula capable of revolutionizing handicapping.  Eventually I realized their power ratings were a nice guide but weren’t a replacement for crunching numbers myself or watching games.  My personal experience isn’t foreign to bettors who follow a normal learning curve, or betting progression if you will. These very disparate systems for numerically representing comparative strength between teams offer a great starting point for building numbers on your own once you understand that a 15 pt loss doesn’t require a 13 pt power rating adjustment.  The best advice I can give aspiring bettors is to find a variety of power numbers ( Sagarin, Massey,  Don Best Advantage, etc to combine, tweak, and modify accordingly based on what you observe yourself in any given sport. I get an inordinate amount of questions about power ratings and how exactly a novice bettor (or even those with some experience) should go about not only building and adjusting them but also using them.  The answer here is there’s no iron clad methodology for developing such a process because there isn’t a fail proof way to handicap games until you’ve tested your methods.  My goal isn’t to coach aspiring gamblers in a science that’s not black and white but rather to explain how power ratings can be used as a valuable tool by avoiding common mistakes made by bettors looking to shortcut the process. Please, if you take one thing away from this blog, never confuse power ratings with a win/loss record because there is absolutely no correlation between the two.  For all the fans out there reading this remember it’s not hating...

Getting the best of the number is no small feat, its a skill every gambler aspires to on a daily basis. My quick hitting advice on how to approach this with the eye of a professional. Click here to ensure you always get the best of the number with the ultimate mobile odds...

They say if one person has a question, there’s a good chance others are thinking the exact same thing. I’m amazed at the depth of discussion that comes my way on twitter which speaks to the advanced betting IQ of modern day sports bettors.  I wish I had time to field more in depth questions in real time but should they ever arise, definitely feel free to send them here and I’ll do my best to answer them. “Tweetydimes ‏@tweetydimes Just curious Mr Fuhrman @ToddFuhrman , is there any truth to it that linesmakers main objective is to draw even money,. or is it a myth ?” This is a question I get more often than any other about our industry and the simple answer is yes, books would love nothing more than to have unlimited volumes and simply collect the juice on a perfectly balanced book.  However in actual practice this is a virtual impossibility for almost every book on the planet meaning the lines you see on the betting board don’t and won’t attract split action.  Books here in the state of Nevada just don’t get enough volume to take roughly 5% on every game and still turn a healthy annual profit. Why 5% not 10% you ask?  55,000 risked to win 50,000 on Panthers -6 and 55,000 risked to win 50,000 on Tampa +6 means the house nets out making 5k from a total of 110,000 in risk. The equation then looks like this: 5,000 (Win) / 110,000 (Handle) yields 4.5% for the house. Good oddsmakers are taught to recognize their advantaged players, using them to the book’s benefit as “consultants” for shaping the market offering lower stake factors (limits) to them than they would the typical recreational bettor.  Every dollar isn’t created equally so it’s...