I wanted to take this chance to introduce to all of you one of our newest contributors to the site. Gamblou has written extensively on UFC gambling around the net for a while now and when he approached me about contributing to the site I couldn’t say no.  Rather than having me paraphrase his philosophies he wanted to write an introductory letter of sorts sharing his philosophies on betting MMA. Welcome fight Enthusiasts to GambLou.com and our new shared access with ToddsTakes.com. We want to thank Todd for allowing us to post our UFC  insight on his outstanding gaming website.   We are honored to be contributors. We’ll be posting all of our UFC blogs (as well as select other gaming intelligence) as early as Saturday March 14th for UFC 185. We would like to set any new readers up with the basic blueprint by which we at GambLou.com operate so there may be as much understanding of our methods as possible before we dive headfirst into this exciting endeavor. *The single point of focus of GambLou.com is Profitable Sports Gaming. Depositing profit after each week’s opinions is our single point of empahsis for we conduct our gaming strictly as a business. The fulcrums to Profitable Sports Gaming are threefold: dynamic Due Diligence; supreme Selectivity, and precision Money Management. Any profitable business thriving today has had to conduct appropriate research, remain selective in its approach to the market it competes in and account regularly for every penny of investment, labor and loss; We are no different. *Every position we share is something we (have played)ourselves! This is most important for what we attempt to do is display how to become apt at running one’s own bankroll as a business. Our career in Profitable Sports Gaming...

Seeking value is what we’re always after as sports bettors.  There’s a reason the professionals don’t care about the names on the front or back of jerseys and look to bet purely on what their numbers tell them.  Isolating the right time to bet on, pass, or bet against certain teams is critical to long term success because oddsmakers can’t always quantify situational analysis in a betting number.  I was taught a college basketball betting rule when I first started in this business and really believe it will always withstand the test of time. 5-20-5 Assuming a 30 game sample size for an average college basketball team; teams will play 5 games above their head (bet on), hold true to their actual power rating for 20 (pass those games), and below their capabilities for 5 (bet against).  If you recognize these scheduling quirks when they present themselves throughout the season you give yourself a great opportunity to optimize value and gain an edge on the bookmaker’s numbers that may not incorporate valuable handicapping intangibles.  There may only be a few short weeks left in the college basketball season but with so many teams vying for conference titles, conf tourney byes, and bolstered resumes for the committee use every angle possible to identify that hidden edge....

During the build-up to Superbowl one of the most frequently asked questions by casual bettors is how do sportsbooks determine limits?  The short answer is that every betting market is different with limits for each individual sport determined by the risk management team.  Large 6 (or even 7) figure wagers that are granted to customers for the Super Bowl aren’t the norm for regular season NBA (or even NFL) games without special arrangements.  While working at Caesars we did have a customer that was granted 6 figure limits on NFL regular season games but he was an exception to the norm. The goal of every book is similar to any other business; turning a profit by knowing your customers. I’ve been mulling a piece like this for a while but was further spurred on by the story that broke over the weekend regarding suspended wagering on the national anthem prop.  Originally reported by USA Today,  Sportsbook.com saw an unusual flurry of action on their length of the national anthem prop about 45 minutes before Idina Manzel was set to perform.  Here’s an excerpt from a conversation I had with their marketing director via email right about the time the prop was pulled: Yes, around 30 mins ago we took [a number of] bets at the maximum. We took bets from new accounts that only wagered on the over on Anthem, everytime we moved they kept re-betting, so as a precaution we’ve suspended the market Now it goes without saying that books open each morning for one reason: to make money (a concept lost on twitter a lot of the time).  Even with low limit offerings ($50-$200), compromised integrity of a market means books from Costa Rica to Australia would respond the same way by...

that you spent too much time gambling this football season.  Your ways might be lost on you but for those folks not immersed in the rigors of wagering each weekend they’ve noticed your absent mindedness on game days.  If you engaged in any of these 10 behaviors (among others) this season then it’s probably a good thing that America’s true gambling past time is headed into the twilight of the season, simply for the sake of your friendships, relationships, and parenting responsibilities. 10) Memorizing a 16 digit credit card was a no brainer. It made things so much simpler to deposit offshore while in public. 9) The local bookmaker asked your current employer if wage garnishment for gambling losses was acceptable corporate policy. 8) Sportsbook tellers everywhere in Vegas have taken to asking about your work, your family, and your picks. Obviously getting  picks is the most important component because it provides optimal fade material 7) Junior’s first word this fall was either parlay, teaser, backdoor, or moose 6) Mailing Christmas gifts to the customer service staff at Betonline, Bovada, and Pinnacle just seemed like the right thing to do given the burgeoning friendships. 5) Breaking even for a weekend would be considered a huge win and good for your confidence. 4) The Mrs is encouraging you to start playing golf again, it’s less time consuming and doesn’t take nearly the same toll on the family’s finances as gambling. 3) You’re having a hard time coming to grips with the simple fact live betting nor half time wagering are available during traditional television shows.  Seems a waste of good network programming when there’s not something you can bet on while watching. 2)  Fading yourself has become the only profitable “betting system” you could think...

Some will argue bye weeks are now more of a detriment to NFL teams than they are a benefit.  Yes players have a chance to heal up, rest those nagging injuries but the ATS trends in the modern NFL say time off isn’t actually as good for your bankroll as it once was. What we’ve seen the past few years is teams actually lose steam coming out of a bye week looking more like lethargic sloppy teams than well oiled machines. Not only has this shown to be true in the regular season but it also resonates with postseason results. Written by Steve Caruso (Visit his website www.twitbet.com) The logical question then becomes what’s changed? Look no further than the 2011 CBA. In 2011 as a result of the new CBA rules surrounding bye weeks, player-team commitments have changed. Let’s take a closer look: Section 2. Bye Weeks: During any regular season bye week period occurring during the term of this Agreement, players will be given a minimum of four consecutive days off.  Such four day period must include a Saturday and a Sunday unless the Club is scheduled to play a game on the Thursday following the bye week, in which case players may be required to report to the Club on the Sunday preceding the Thursday game. In such an event, the four day period shall be Wednesday through Saturday. Any injured player may be required to undergo medical or rehabilitation treatment during such four day period provided that such treatment is deemed reasonably necessary by the Club’s medical staff. Click here to view Page 143 of the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement The new set of rules gives players more time off during bye weeks and as a result, less mandatory time...

The Westgate SuperContest is the world’s premiere NFL handicapping competition and the 2014 edition has once again generated a record number of entrants. This year’s prize pool comes from the 1,403 entries, representing a 36% increase in sign-ups from last year’s previous record high of 1,034 entries. The payouts have never been more lucrative, but the bar for picking NFL winners has also been raised. Written by Justin Zovas Just how high is the SuperContest’s standard for football handicapping excellence? We can do some math to approximate the wins-needed to secure the juicy top prize of $736,575…before taxes of course. Contestants will make a total of 85 picks over 17 weeks and assuming each selection has a 50% chance of winning, each entrant has an average expectation of 42.5 wins. An entrant’s winning rate is normally distributed around a mean of 42.5 wins with a standard deviation of 4.61 wins. 68% of entrants (≈954 entries) will win between 37.89 and 47.11 games, 95% (≈1333) will win between 33.28 and 51.72 games, and 99.7% (≈1399) will win between 28.67 and 56.33 games. But what about the remaining four contestants that are expected to perform greater than three standard deviations from the mean? Two will be battling for the embarrassing result of last place (no prize pool for this just yet) while the other two will have plenty on the line come week 17. The 2nd place finisher will finish in the 99.93 percentile which is equivalent to winning 57.20 games. In other words, the champion will need to pick winners at a rate better than 67.3% which is equivalent to a benchmark of 57.5 wins. Last year, the runner-up was expected to win 56.79 games which equated to a 66.8% win percentage, or a benchmark...

As a two time fantasy champion in 2013, I’ve done the unthinkable—I’ve retired from fantasy. I know, I know, you’re going to tell me: I’m 34, I’m in the prime of my career, I’ve got players relying on me, an organization I’ve built from the ground up, records to break. And I know all your points are valid. I know that I’ll miss logging in and hearing the Sportscenter alert on draft day. I’ll miss the shit talking. Yes, of course, I will. But after winning my townie league (That’s the term I use to describe my hometown league. The term“townie”will most likely offend you if you still live in the city you were born in) and my work league in the same season, I decided to retire. Written by David Scherer The question I’m asked most by the media is, “why”? I’ll tell you the same thing I’ve told thousands of reporters—there was nothing left for me to accomplish. It simply doesn’t get any better. I get to brag to the guys I’ve known longest in my life and people I’m forced to be around 40+ hours a week forever. There will never be a better feeling than winning two championships in the same year. I’ll never start 0-4 again; I’ll never get a text from a buddy laughing because my second round RB is limping off the field headed towards the locker room; I’ll never scream at my girlfriend again for asking me the same question four times when really it was because Russell Wilson ran in a QB sneak from the 3 yard line instead of Marshawn Lynch getting me 6 points (to be fair, the previous play was a Lynch TD that was called back due to holding, so she...

As gamblers it’s easy to get caught up in the energy of a game day, hell that’s what most of us live for all fall. The homework’s been done; the hours spent on conference calls, pouring over stats, and searching for angles is in the rear view mirror. Unfortunately tthe active involvement process in a week doesn’t just stop when a game goes final meaning a win or loss gets tacked onto the balance sheet. Over the years I find myself spending more time combing through play by play for the games recently completed to effectively “grade” my wagers. We often get caught in just wins and losses (it’s hard not to, can’t pay bills with losers) while the real merits of a bet actually goes much deeper. This takes on added importance as you look to identify opportunities moving forward.  We all know the football season is a marathon, not a sprint and the most dangerous outcome for all of us is to lose site of the forest through the trees.  History is doomed to repeat itself if you don’t learn from mistakes, blame my extensive financial background for this thought process.  Before an event is dead and buried, an extensive post mortem is always required. As a new weekly feature my goal is to take you through some of my weekly thought process, grading my 5 “public” selections for the week that I’ve elected to use in the supercontest. We’ll see how this week’s exercise goes and potentially tweak the format moving forward. Feel free to email me with questions, concerns, or life queries but I should admit dating advice isn’t really my forte. Typically the criteria I use to grade each play will come from a combination of factors including beating...

The NFL truly is a what have you done for me lately league when it comes to gambling.  Public perception plays a huge role in how oddsmakers adjust numbers after just a single performance.  Identifying over valued or under valued sides becomes paramount if you plan to stay one step ahead of the market.  Last week we saw a perennial NFL bottom feeder in Jacksonville get obliterated on the road by the Redskins and backup QB Kirk Cousins.  Anyone who watched that systematic destruction would be hard pressed to walk to the window this week backing the Jags with confidence.  However historical trends indicate that this might not be as crazy an idea as it would appear on the surface.  Thanks to friends of the program at Spreadapedia we uncovered a few fascinating numbers. Click here to learn more about Spreadapedia Home underdogs the week following a loss by 30 pts or more have produced a record of 84-53-5 ATS, good enough for a 61% success rate (database goes back to 1978) If we dig deeper into the figures to adjust for more recent league trends that win percentage ticks up even further… Since 2000: 41-23-5 ATS (64%) Since 2009: 12-7-1 ATS (63%) Now, if we go deeper applying it to teams that have lost by 30+ AND are listed as home dogs of +6.5 or higher the win percentage goes through the roof… All Time: 41-20-1 ATS (67%) Since 2000: 27-10-1 ATS (72%) Since 2009: 9-3 ATS (75%) One of the first things that jumps out is how infrequently this opportunity actually presents itself.  Is it a significant enough sample size to use for future reference?  I think so and here’s why… Trends often are built on a house of cards.  I mean...

I woke up this morning and scrolled through my timeline; the amount of irate Tennessee fans (after a win mind you) put a smile on my face.  Betting isn’t personal but they appeared to take it that way when the sharpest bettors in the world were staunchly opposing the Vols last night.  By the time the game kicked off, UT had moved from its market peak of -6.5 to a closing price of -3.  Every line move tells a story about a particular game; even if the story doesn’t play out on the field like the betting market suggests it will. Sharp money isn’t always right.  That’s the first myth about sportsbetting that needs to be squashed right here.  Those thinking differently are sorely mistaken, operating under the incorrect assumption that the best betting groups achieve a success rate of astronomical proportions.  For every game like West Virginia, California, or Temple that go exactly as anticipated, there are games like last night with Utah St or Saturday with Florida Atlantic when the biggest bettors in the world don’t get it right.  Folks new to the industry (and even those that are old hats) have to understand  knowing the exact reason behind every line move is impossible information to obtain without a pipeline directly to large betting groups.  However understanding if a line move is public or professional is extremely helpful in understanding when to enter the market. The perfect example of a game from Saturday that illustrates optimal market played out Saturday in West Lafayette.  Sharp money came flooding in on the Western Michigan Broncos; pushing the price from +13 all the way down to +7 before kickoff.  Inevitably the game ended up falling 9 when Purdue walked out of their home opener with...

(Editor’s Note: We don’t condone wagering on the LLWS…unless of course you can make money at it then by all means fire at will) Written by Ted McNamara On Thursday the best Little Leaguers on the planet will once again convene on Williamsport, PA for the 67th straight year and bring with them countless opportunities for us degenerates to pad our bankrolls before football season begins. Now I know what you’re thinking; how could you bet on 12 year olds? They’re so unreliable. They’re so inconsistent. Well I’d argue they’re more consistent than any Calipari coached team at the free throw line and certainly more predictable than any walk-on kicker in a Wednesday night #MACtion game.   Nobody gets scared to make a bet in those situations, why would you now? Now, while I don’t actually recommend putting your real money on middle school kids, there are places on the internet that allow you to do so (Editor’s Note: we won’t endorse these shops…but you probably have money there already so continue). So if you so choose to seek those places out (for entertainment purposes only of course), here’s some tips: Do Your Homework. If the teams you’re wagering on still have to do their homework, so do you.  Not a bad rule of thumb when putting a wager down on anything but it’s especially important in the LLWS where the teams are new to everyone. You’ll never know more than the book when you’re betting on NFL, college football, NBA, or college basketball games but you may be able to put yourself on an even playing field with them in Williamsport. With all that being said if you’re trying to calculate the WHIP of a pitcher too young for a driver’s license you may...

They say the best thing about twitter is that everyone can join…the irony there is that it might be the worst thing about it as well (just ask Stephen A Smith about it).  Social media is an exceptional tool for giving everyone an equal voice, even those that choose to attack others rather than provide thought provoking discourse.  I’d be remiss if I didn’t say I learn as much, if not more, from the people I interact with on twitter than I can ever hope to provide for others myself.  After a few too many adult beverages with a couple close friends over the weekend, I decided to craft a short social media IQ test.  Of course 85% of you will pass with flying colors…it’s the other 15% I worry about.  Have at it ladies and gents Can you spell your name correctly in your profile? +1 point Can you load an avatar of SOMETHING other than defaulting to the egg? +1 point Are you comfortable tweeting using your real name or likeness? +1 point If you can’t tweet under your real name given the circumstances, do you act like a civilized contributing member of society? +1 point Do you only use an alias to act like an idiot or troll? -1 point Do you take trolling seriously enough to use your real name? +1 point Do you understand subject/noun agreement? +1 point Can you differentiate between your and you’re? +1 point Is getting an entire thought out in 140 chars feasible? +1 point Are you able to understand the difference between tweeting and a blog post disguised as 8 straight tweets? +1 point Do you follow Stephen A Smith? -1 point Are you capable of tweeting without using expletives? +1 point Can you...