Establishing efficiency in a futures market is essential for attracting action on all teams. Unlike a normal supply and demand curve where price rises as demand increases, the exact opposite is true for booking futures. When people are clamoring to bet a team to win the title, odds drop until it becomes unattractive for the parade to continue. If bettors are avoiding certain teams in the market, the key is raising the number until you can entice a bet.  Every bookmaker responsible for building a market understands the theoretical hold he strives to keep.  Theoretical hold is the percentage of every dollar wagered in the market the house keeps and in terms of futures, it serves as a barometer for how aggressively teams need to be moved up for each time you move a side down or vice versa.  Similar to physics, the perfect market should always require equal and opposite reactions on both sides of the equation to maintain stability.     The primary goal for bookmakers is to achieve balance heading into the season so it’s easy to make necessary adjustments as favorites emerge.  If a bookmaker is stubborn and allows liability to mount on certain teams, it becomes dangerous especially in pro sports like the NFL and NHL where competitive balance is king. When you visualize the process, imagine a balance where you have a large weight on one side and 10 smaller weights on the other to keep things even.  As the season progresses, the challenge is steering action towards different commodities so bettors make a case for not only the prohibitive favorite at 5/2 but also the longshot at 75-1.  Those who bet into future markets have different motivations ranging from the casual fan interested in betting his team for rooting...

Every sportsbook operates with a different philosophy all aimed at achieving one primary objective: turning a profit.  Whether it’s a square shop like Bovada marketed to the recreational gambler or a sharp operation like Pinnacle booking to the professionals, the key is understanding the appropriate product mix for your clientele and responding appropriately to their bets.  There are pros and cons for every bookmaking approach and it all hinges on management’s tolerance for liability, exposure, and limits.  Below is an interview with senior trader John T of Pinnacle who explains his operations’ strategy and why his shop is so successful booking limits to the world’s best...

by @govolx Evolution in…handicapping Anytime a game is mentioned the first words out of your mouth refer to the point spread, total, and what side you were on since you obviously bet it. It doesn’t matter if the game was yesterday or five years ago or how obscure the teams were, the vivid memories feel like life changing events.  It could be the Southland Conference Semifinal from 2008 when you remember having Stephen F Austin as a big favorite that blew a 14 pt lead against Northwestern St . The way you rationalize the meltdown?  It was only a one unit play and back then you’d didn’t bet large sums of cash. Doug Gottlieb, Matt Norlander, Jeff Goodman, and Andy Glockner’s twitter feeds are jammed up on game day because you’ve asked them questions about 17 different games and its not even 10am yet.  Your desire to get the insider angle on SIU Edwardsville vs Tennessee St is eventually what will get you blocked by each high profile sports personality. Friday is usually a miss work day for you if you’re behind on capping the full card.  It’s not that you’re  sick or anything, it’s just that all of the ESPN Radio guys give out their plays that day and you pray certain personalities don’t mush your best bets. Evolution in…research methods You are the only person you know who has actually been to a real physical newsstand because it’s the only place to find The Gold Sheet and Power Sweep during football season.  Just to make sure they don’t run out of the three copies they actually stock, you tip the clerk and extra 20 to protect yours. Marc Lawrence’s Playbook is your Bible and instead of looking forward to vacations or major...

Is stiff arming the title game a violation of handicapping man law? While everyone runs to handicap the LSU / Alabama rematch by asking themselves simplequestions like can the Tide solve their special team woes this time around? Will Jordan Jefferson break a few big plays and be the leader LSU needs in crunch time?  Can Les Miles really best Nick Saban twice in a season?  The real question every bettor needs to be asking himself is there really value betting a game when everyone wants action? For most recreational gamblers worrying about large limits and having multiple “outs” aren’t normal concerns that factor into the handicapping equation.  Whether it’s the the BCS title game, Bulls vs Pistons, or Idaho St vs Wyoming tonight you won’t have a problem betting 110 to win 100 no matter where you chooses to bet.  My question is always this having been in the bettor’s shoes before why bother to plunk down hard earned money on Alabama instead of Idaho St if you believe the Bengals offer a better value this evening than the Crimson Tide? When seeking sustained success in handicapping the key is finding value that gives you an edge over the books.  It doesn’t matter if its a side, total, future, or prop finding an opportunity can come anywhere but rarely do these type of opportunities present themselves in championship type settings. As bookmakers we feel confident that our numbers are as tight as they can be to invite large limits for the most public sporting events.  To counteract the higher propensity of “softer” numbers in sports that don’t garner as much attention (WNBA, NASCAR, and Arena football) we employ lower limits to protect our assets.  General rule of thumb I’ll share with handicappers is...

When betting the NFL the question of buying points around key numbers always factor into the equation.  As a bookmaker, it’s no surprise some houses prevent customers from buying off of the 3 because empirical evidence supports the frequency with which pro games land on a field goal and allowing bettors to buy to 2.5 changes the mindset for booking a game. However, I’ve never understood why books won’t let customers buy onto a push since I’m the first to tell bettors that in the long run juice becomes my best friend because bettors simply can’t outrun it.   Although I’d be remiss if I didn’t say there are times to lay a few extra cents around the 3, 7, and 10 that can shift the balance of power to the player. NFL math says you’re better off taking +3, -130 than you are +2.5, -110 while the same methodology also applies laying -120 to buy from 6.5 to 7 or 7.5 down to 7 along with 10.5 down to 10 or 9.5 up to 10. Below you’ll find a breakdown of NFL results from the roughly 6,000 games played since 1988 that fell between 1 and 14. Adjustments have been made for rounding purposes and the remaining 31.5% of games played during this stretch not listed ended with a differential of more than 14 points while 6 games during this time period resulted in a tie. All data courtesy of @wagerminds 1 – 4.1% 2 – 3.4% 3 – 15.7% 4 – 5.4% 5 – 3.1% 6 – 5.4% 7- 8.6% 8 – 2.8% 9 – 1.7% 10 – 6.1% 11- 2.9% 12 – 1.6% 13 – 3.0% 14 –...

There isn’t just one trait or magical formula that makes someone a successful gambler.  In a week long series I’ll dissect some of the attributes, skills, and lessons the best gamblers in the world have learned to make them consistent winners while the rest of us just dream about 53 percent. A small win is better than a big loss (Part 5) Who doesn’t want the big score when betting sports?  Whether it’s a huge dog moneyline, 7 team parlay, or a longshot in the futures market the reality is opportunities to bet small and cash large are few and far between.  Seeing value isn’t anticipating tickets with astronomical payouts cashing but rather giving yourself a positive expectation every time you place a wager.  By betting a 100-1 shot to win the NCAA title (see Xavier preseason odds) the methodology is the Musketeers only need to secure a sweet 16 birth to insure a return on investment.  Wiseguys don’t look to win big all the time instead they strive to find angles for winning consistently.  There are points where the sharpest gamblers take a position early in the week laying -2.5 on an NFL favorite knowing the price will hit 3 and allow them to “side” the game with zero risk.  What I mean by siding a game is you end up risking 2.2 units in total with full understanding the max risk is .1 units with potential upside of winning a full unit if the game falls 3.  Ideally the dream scenario is to lay the favorite -2.5 and grab the dog +3.5 in the pros since 15.8% of games fall exactly on a field goal (courtesy @wagerminds) and you’d only need to hit 1 out 20 to make this arbitrage approach profitable. ...

Continuing with our week long theme of what makes a wise guy, here are 8 handicapping violations you won’t see the professionals make.  If you see a square behavior we didn’t include be sure to add it to the article’s comment section Written by Mark Angelou (follow him on twitter @govolx) Your bookie knows who you’re going to bet before you even call him and has offered you free half points, 10% cashback, and to take you and your wife out to dinner once a month during football just to keep your business. You never saw a double-digit road favorite you didnt think was a lock to win outright. Your bet sheet takes up an entire page and contains 20 times more ‘-‘s and ‘o’s than ‘+’s and ‘u’s. Mike and Mike’s Stone Cold Led Pipe Locks is your can’t miss resource for handicapping advice because if these guys are on ESPN they have to know sports gambling. Every March your NCAA tournament bracket amazingly consists of all four #1 seeds getting to the final four yet you wonder why you’re mathematically eliminated by the sweet 16. You hit one 7 team parlay four years ago and continue to bet one every week hoping to recapture the magic figuring the due theory is bound to kick in by now Every week you convince yourself the best handicapping strategy is to fade yourself but you never work up the courage to do it. You bet the entire board with the mindest breaking even would be ideal because you really could use the money this...