Round 2 of the EPL season kicks off in earnest this weekend. All of the big boys showed their mettle last weekend and we saw what might be the beginning of the end for Leicester City’s title defense. James Kempton is back with his complete analysis of what you need to know before betting this weekend’s fixtures. Manchester United v Southampton Manchester United -1 and 2.75 goals Friday Night Football is here! Southampton have won their last two trips to Old Trafford by a scoreline of 1-0 and the season before that the game finished one apiece. This trip will hold no fears for them given their recent run of success up north. Even though this is the new improved United I can’t offer a bet in this game as let’s face it; if it was not a stand alone live TV game we would not even consider betting at this market price. Stoke City v Manchester City Manchester City -0.75 and 2.75 goals Stoke won this game at the Britannia Stadium 2-0 last season but prior to that the Blues had been unbeaten in their previous six trips to this tricky venue. Last season City fully covered this line just four times away from home and there were signs on opening day that teams fully understand how to stop Guardiola teams from playing the way they’d like. Knowing how to do it and being able to actually fully implement those tactics are a different matter. I want to take Pep’s men on as I’m not sure of his system working in the EPL but this is another game I shall leave alone. Burnley v Liverpool Liverpool -1 and 2.5 goals There have been at least two goals in each of Liverpool’s last ten...
EPL Round 1
posted by Todd
It may have taken some backroom handshakes combined with coaxing and prodding but our EPL Insider James Kempton is back for another season of analysis. For those new to his column Jimmy shares his thoughts on every single fixture of the EPL season each week during the season. We’ll also be carrying his podcast on the site as well to get you ready for all the top flight domestic league analysis you can handle until a champion is crowned. Arsenal v Liverpool Arsenal -0.25 and 2.5 goals Twelve of the last thirteen EPL meetings between these two sides have seen at least two goals. The exception though was last season’s goalless draw in this fixture. Liverpool have registered just one win in the last fifteen years at the Emirates, back in August 2011. However, the Gunners appear to have a lot of defensive issues going into this opening day encounter. This line opened -0.5 to Arsenal but such is the concern for the home side it has trended down to -0.25. Even after the move that price still does not appeal to me. Over the past five seasons Arsenal are just 4-7-6 on home soil when priced above a level of +110 so give me a small piece of the away team plus a quarter of a goal. AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United Man Utd -0.75 and 2.5 goals The Special One starts on the south coast but last year it was the Cherries who won this match up between the teams 2-1. Their south coast home was not a fortress though with Bournemouth only going 5-5-9 on home soil, compiling the second worst home record in the EPL last season ahead of only Aston Villa. That loss last season here for United was...
Copa: Mexico vs Uruguay...
posted by Todd
For more Copa America and Euro 2016 analysis all summer long be sure to check out www.sportsline.com Mexico vs Uruguay University of Phoenix Stadium: Glendale, AZ – 8PM ET Uruguay +225 Mexico +145 Draw +215 Total 2 (Over -125) El Tri supporters have reason to be optimistic; their beloved national team hasn’t conceded a single goal since Juan Carlos Osorio took over for Miguel Herrera last October. The green and white find themselves on an 11 game undefeated streak including eight straight victories. Mexico’s depth and home field advantage they’ll see throughout Copa America are a major reason they’ve become a trendy selection, not named Brazil or Argentina, to win the tournament. If Mexico is to extend their 600 minute clean sheet steak they’ll be tasked with limiting Uruguayan striker Edinson Cavani. Luis Suarez is nursing a hamstring injury and although he might be available should Uruguay advance to the knockout stage his status is tenuous at best during group play. I don’t buy Cavani’s scoring prowess as the primary attacker considering he’s always been surrounded by world class talent like Suarez on the international stage and Zlatan Ibrahimovic at PSG. While defense has been the strength of this Mexican side, they’ve yet to display that attacking flair in Osorio’s 4-3-3 formation. Javier Hernandez (Chicharito), Andres Guardado, and Jesus Corona need to be that trio on offense capable of leading Mexico on a deep tournament run. With Suarez out of the mix Urguay needs to rely on their veteran defensive core led by Maxi Pereira and Diego Godin. I can’t see Uruguay taking on a full blown defensive posture but I contend that’s their best chance to stay in the mix for top billing in Group C especially against Mexico. Couple all the tactical...
Championship Sunday
posted by Todd
It’s the final Sunday of the Premier League season and unfortunately it comes with less drama than we’ve grown accustomed to recently. Heart felt thank you to James Kempton for yet again providing awesome analysis every week of the season yet again. His insight and analysis is second to none when it comes to game capsules on each weekend fixture. Let’s hope we can land him here on the site for yet another season. Feel free to step into his mentions and goad him into some EuroCup analysis as well!!! Arsenal v Aston Villa Arsenal -2.25 and 3.5 goals The curtain falls on another wretched season full of disappointment and fan anger. It’s not been much better for Aston Villa either! Arsenal have won the last four meetings of the sides to nil by a total of 14-0 which funnily enough is the score that they would need to win by here, if Spurs draw at Newcastle, to finish second. This market and goal line is comparable to the lines we saw with the Luis Suarez led Liverpool side of a couple of seasons ago. Olivier Giroud is no Suarez! I can’t stomach the away team even with the huge start they receive but happy for a little piece of the unders. Chelsea v Leicester City Chelsea -0.25 and 2.75 goals If the sight of Andrea Bocelli singing for Claudio Ranieri turned you to tears then get ready for a repeat as there will be an enormous amount of love shown for the ‘Tinker Man’ at Stamford Bridge. It’s hard to assess the drive and determination of the Foxes given the outpouring of emotion last weekend when they received the trophy. I will repeat though what I’ve said on numerous occasions this season, nothing...
Mid-Week Report
posted by Todd
The marathon that is the Premier League is winding down as most teams face at most two remaining league fixtures. For our EPL insider James Kempton the hard work and heavy lifting is almost over. However before we give him a proper send off he still has a few more wagering thoughts to offer for Wednesday’s matches. Norwich City v Watford Norwich -0.5 and 2.5 goals The Canaries need to win here and hope results go their way in other fixtures to avoid relegation. Thankfully there is not a better team for them to welcome to Carrow Road than this Watford side who seem to be freewheeling into the summer. Uncertainties over who will manage them next season seem to affecting the Hornets as recent results have been less than impressive. If Watford had been in even a semblance of form I’d look to side with them on this line but after just two wins in their last ten outings, I just can’t do it. Not that I’m rushing in on the home team although if I had to bet this game, which obviously nobody does, I’d side with the under. Sunderland v Everton Sunderland -0.75 and 2.75 goals Win and they’re safe is the carrot being dangled in front of Big Sam’s Sunderland men ahead of this game. Who better to welcome to town then than this doormat looking Everton side who appear to let everyone trample all over them. However, the Toffees are 7-7-2 against fellow bottom half sides whilst Sunderland have won just five of sixteen games in this same spot. I’ve been a huge critic of Roberto Martinez but this line is nonsense. I could stomach the home side being priced a quarter goal favourite but not three quarters of...
EPL Weekend
posted by Todd
The championship drama might be over with Tottenham’s collapse on Monday but there are still money making opportunities with the remaining fixtures. James Kempton is here to finish out the grind with complete betting analysis of every weekend match-up. Norwich City v Manchester United Man United -0.5 and 2.5 goals Norwich had that famous 2-1 victory at Old Trafford when the sides met on the Saturday before Christmas. Prior to that though United had registered four successive victories to nil against the Canaries. Norwich are just 2-4-7 against the top third and they’ve failed to score in six of those thirteen games. United have a mixed record against the bottom third teams as they are 6-3-5 in this spot. In a game that offers minimal betting appeal I’d probably lean to the under 2.5 goals as United are sure to make sure the back door is shut before they attempt to unlock the front door. Aston Villa v Newcastle United Newcastle -0.75 and 2.5 goals It was 1-1 earlier this season when the sides met in the north east and that continued a run that has seen the last four meetings of the sides go under 2.5 goals and three of those went under the total. Newcastle are unbeaten in the last nine EPL meetings of the teams and it’s hard to make a case for them breaking that sequence here. Newcastle are 2-2-14 on the road and have a goal difference of -29 on their travels yet are priced as -0.75 favourites. Given those trends it’s hard to back this Newcastle side to win away from home…….unless they are playing Aston Villa. Greater need and greater desire makes players run further, tackle harder, and fight like lions. Games between the poorest sides in...
EPL Preview
posted by Todd
The season continues to wind down and Leicester City has a chance to finish the impossible dream on Sunday. A club flirting with relegation just a season ago is damn near close to finishing the season atop the Premier League table having opened the season with odds as high as 5000-1. This is why we love sport; just when we think we’ve seen it all something beyond our realm of comprehension unfolds. Jimmy is back to provide analysis on every single weekend fixture Everton v Bournemouth Everton -0.5 and 2.75 goals The style with which Roberto Martinez managed teams play requires a huge amount of bravery and confidence from his players and that will be a problem this weekend. Patience is running thin at Goodison Park and every pass that goes astray will be met with howls of derision. Bournemouth travel north in party mood knowing the beaches of their summer holidays are within touching distance. Give me the away side to put a good showing in at what’ll be a nervous tense and fractious atmosphere on Merseyside. Bournemouth all the way for me. Newcastle v Crystal Palace Newcastle -0.5 and 2.5 goals This is a massive game for Newcastle and after recent positive showings they should be very confident of getting a result here. Alan Pardew will want his side to put in a good performance traveling to his old stomping ground but surely their attentions are beginning to turn to that FA Cup Final. This should be a very tactical encounter as Pardew is in many way very similar to Rafa Benitez in how he sets his teams up. Give me a piece of the under 2.5 goals in this game as a pretty solid looking proposition. Stoke City v Sunderland PK...
Weekend Preview
posted by Todd
Even with an abridged slate of fixtures our man across the pond James Kempton is here to share his thoughts for the weekend Bournemouth v Chelsea Chelsea -0.25 and 2.75 goals If ever a game offered zero betting appeal then this is probably it. Bournemouth had that famous 1-0 victory at Stamford Bridge last December which drove one of the final nails into Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea coffin. If the Blues’ high profile big name players had any pride then they would travel down to the south coast and pick off the Cherries in this game. The problem is that all season long they’ve shown they don’t have much pride and now the rotation of fringe squad and youth players makes it a lottery at even picking their team, let alone their performance level. Liverpool v Newcastle United Liverpool -1 and 3 goals If the endless fan montages and singing of ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’ began to make you feel bilious before the Europa League tie against Borussia Dortmund then look away now. Rafa returns to Anfield and there is sure to be an outpouring of love for the ‘Spanish Waitor’. There have been at least two goals in eighteen of the last nineteen EPL meetings of the sides. Liverpool have won nine and drawn one of the last ten EPL meets at Anfield and this game back on April 1996 saw the Premiership’s finest ever game! Liverpool are 8-2–3 against the bottom third placed teams but I can’t trust them laying a full goal ahead of the big Europa League Semi Final. I will take a piece of the overs though on the goal line as it seems the more Klopp changes his team the more the goals fly in! Sunderland v Arsenal Arsenal...
EPL Mid Week Report
posted by Todd
It’s time for a little bonus EPL with relegation races and the title chase heating up with only a few fixtures left. James Kempton offers a few thoughts on where you can find value with the mid-week games. Newcastle United v Manchester City Manchester City -1 and 2.75 goals It was 6-1 to City back in October and they’ve won each of their last six trips to St James’ Park by exactly two clear goals. Despite all that’s happened this season the home team will see this as an opportunity for them to gain momentum that they can then use on the relegation run in and they will be cheered on by a forgiving home crowd. City just look too potent going forward though so if the Geordies are going to get anything then they will have to be expansive in their style of play. I expect big man Mitrovic to play and for the Black & Whites to be direct and play on the sometimes shaky City backline. Give me over 2.75 goals and I lean to the away team to take this maybe 3-1. West Ham United v Watford West Ham -0.75 and 2.5 goals Watford won 2-0 at Vicarage Road when the sides met back in October but you have to believe this will be a much changed Hornets team that takes the field for this game. All of their focus is quite rightly, whatever Qiques Sanchez Flores may say to the contrary, is on that Sunday FA Cup Semi Final against Crystal Palace. West Ham will carry the momentum from that game at Leicester on Sunday into this fixture and I believe they will win and cover this line comfortably. Liverpool v Everton Liverpool -0.75 and 2.5 goals Everton have...
EPL Round 34
posted by Todd
Football action is heating up all over Europe…just at the same time a lot of the drama we’ve come to expect in the Premiership come April is subsiding. That being said our EPL insider James Kempton is back to share his thoughts on all the big matches this weekend while offering up some strong investments Norwich City v Sunderland Norwich -0.25 and 2.25 goals Norwich won 3-1 in the north east back in August and they’re undefeated against the Mackems in the last five EPL meets between the clubs. This is a real leave alone game for me as although Norwich have won two and drawn one of their last four games you cannot trust them to beat a Sunderland side who’ve not lost to a bottom half placed team since mid December. I’m not sure Sunderland would view a point as a good result though so I’m wary of taking them with a quarter goal on the handicap. If the game is tight late into the game the away team may leave themselves open as they search for the winning goal. Everton v Southampton Everton -0.25 and 2.25 goals Internal turmoil has beset Everton for the first time in a very long time. The Goodison Park crowd have turned on Martinez and to be honest I’m just surprised it’s not happened sooner. Everton won 3-0 at St Marys earlier this season and they’ve won the last three EPL meetings of the teams at Goodison Park since the Saints returned to the top flight. However, the atmosphere is not great on Merseyside and Everton are 3-6-8 against the top half placed sides so it’s a brave man who backs the Toffees here despite that convincing win at Southampton. Give me the Saints to at...
Round 33
posted by Todd
Another round of fixtures are in the books and Leicester City is one step closer to doing the unthinkable. City is now an overwhelming favorite to go from after thought to champion in just one season. However there are other opportunities to make a few bucks on the pitch this weekend and James Kempton is here, like always, to offer his complete thoughts. West Ham United v Arsenal Arsenal -0.5 and 2.5 goals It was that opening day win at The Emirates that put us on notice about the ability of this Hammers side as before that they had lost nine straight to the Gunners. West Ham are 5-2-2 against the top third so I should take the Hammers here but I just get the feeling that Arsenal will tease their fans once more by winning this game to ultimately fall short in the title race. It’s only history and my guys that makes me lean to Arsenal here as all sane reasoning suggests the home side are a good bet. Aston Villa v Bournemouth Bournemouth -0.5 and 2.25 goals This game intrigues me from a pricing perspective as if ever there should be a value spot to back Villa in then this should be it after that 4-0 TV loss to Chelsea last week. The home crowd have turned on their players though and it’s a poisonous atmosphere at Villa Park for the home team to play in. Opening day seems a very long time ago now as on that day Villa won 1-0 away to Bournemouth and since then Villa have gained just thirteen points in thirty one games. If it’s a tight game I’m sure the home team will find a way to lose and Eddie Howe will be looking for...
Round 32
posted by Todd
The international break has come and gone (thankfully) so Jimmy’s hiatus covering the EPL came to a screeching halt. Here are all his thoughts on the weekend’s fixtures Listen to his podcast here Aston Villa v Chelsea Chelsea -1 and 2.5 goals None of the last six meetings of the sides in the EPL have seen more than three goals. It was 2-0 to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge earlier this season and I see a similar outcome here despite the midweek departure of coach Garde from Villa Park. Villa are 0-4-12 against the top half and have scored just nine goals whilst conceding thirty four goals. The fact that this is a live TV game should help focus the Chelsea players’ attention and we’ve seen all season long this type of exposure makes no difference to the shameful performance levels of Villa. Chelsea or pass for me. Arsenal v Watford Arsenal -1.5 and 2.75 goals Arsenal won 3-0 at Vicarage Road in October but the Hornets frustrated them for an hour in that game and Watford knocked the Gunners out of the FA Cup just three weeks ago. Watford struggle in this spot as they are 2-0-9 against the top third but they’ve only conceded sixteen goals in those eleven matches. Watford have lost by more than one goal just three times this season and tactically I can see them frustrating the Gunners once more. You can’t back Arsenal on this -1.5 line but these are the games they tend to win. I like the unders in this spot as Watford are sure to set up in a manner that the home team will have to work hard to break down. Bournemouth v Manchester City Man City -0.5 and 2.5 goals City hammered Bournemouth...