It might be a holiday weekend here in the states focused on football but across the pond the EPL action rests for nobody. To help us make sense of the confusion is James Kempton with his complete breakdown of every fixture this weekend. Burnley v Manchester City Man City -1.5 goals and 3 goals City have scored fifteen goals in six road games this season and the only time they did not score at least twice was in their 2-0 defeat at Spurs. Despite the best laid plans of inferior EPL teams on home soil, at some point they come out of their defensive shape and City shred them. I lean City but laying one and a half goals on the road here is a big ask as Burnley have been competitive at home this season. Hull City v West Bromwich Albion PK and 2.25 goals This is one of those games that Hull will identify as a “can win” game but conceding three goals to Sunderland last weekend must put some doubt in their mind. The fact their opponent scored four times on Monday Night Football should also concern the home team with the Baggies entering this game riding the crest of the wave. Off of a PK line I sense the value is with the Baggies but if this trends to West Brom -0.25 then I may just be tempted by the Tigers. Leicester City v Middlesbrough Leicester -0.5 and 2.25 goals Leicester are 10-3-1 at home over this season and last against sides in the bottom half but Middlesbrough will be a tough nut to crack. The away team have conceded more than once in a game in just three fixtures this season and have allowed just four goals in their...
Match Week 12
posted by Todd
International break be damned…it’s time the boys started back on the domestic grind. For those of us stateside we’re all thankful that Team USA has months to rehab its image. However in the interim our EPL guru James Kempton offers his thoughts on all the weekend’s biggest fixtures. Manchester United v Arsenal PK and 2.5 goals It is rare that you can obtain United off of a PK line on home soil. Given Arsenal’s poor record here, just one win in their last thirteen trips, IT makes them the logical side to take. That said they’ve already lost to Man City and also drawn with Stoke and Burnley at Old Trafford this campaign. Mourinho revels in these battles with Wenger and I just cannot see Arsenal winning this match under any circumstance. I lean to United as I sense Jose will set his team up to frustrate Arsenal knowing full well that Arsene Wenger will not alter his tactics. Crystal Palace v Manchester City Man City -1 and 3 goals Man City have won six of the seven meetings of the sides since December 2013 with four of those six City wins coming by more than one goal. After a lightening quick start to the season City have won just one of their last five games and bar the four goals they scored at West Brom scored just three in the other of those four matches. If City are not wasteful in front of goal they could cover this line easily but with their key players returning from all over the world after international duty will they be as sharp as usual? City or pass but it will probably be pass for me. Everton v Swansea City Everton -1 and 2.75 goals Swansea won...
Match Week 11
posted by Todd
It’s time for your weekly football fix. EPL insider James Kempton is here to give you his thoughts on every single Match Week 11 fixture Bournemouth v Sunderland Bournemouth -0.75 and 2.5 goals Can you bet Bournemouth as over half of a goal favourite against any EPL team? I am not sure but given the fact Sunderland are 0-1-4 on their travels you cannot support the away team either. The Mackems have conceded only seven goals in those five away trips so with this goal line set at 2.5 I will take them to keep it tight and have a piece of the under. Burnley v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace -0.25 and 2.25 goals The sides have met eight times in Championship and EPL action since September 2010 and under 2.5 goals is 6-2. Palace did win this trip though in January 2015 in a high scoring 3-2 away win. The home team are 3-1-2 on home soil this season with just an opening day defeat to Swansea and a recent loss to Arsenal being inflicted on them at Turf Moor. I like the home team here. Manchester City v Middlesbrough Man City -1.75 and 3 goals Can Middlesbrough replicate that recent performance at the Emirates where they earned a goalless draw? It is a big ask but I will be very interested to see the team news going into this game. This game for City comes on the back of a big Champions League game against Barcelona and ahead of a World Cup qualifying week which will see a lot of their players jet across the world on international duty. Will Guardiola mix his line up? Until I see the line ups I couldn’t possibly think of betting this game and even then...
Match Week 10
posted by Todd
It’s another weekend of EPL matches sure to get those wagering juices flowing. This might not be the sexiest slate of games on paper but that won’t stop our EPL insider James Kempton from offering his thoughts on everything Premier League to make you money. Sunderland v Arsenal Arsenal -1.25 and 3 goals Arsenal are unbeaten in the last nine total meetings of the sides with the Mackems only managing to net four goals in those nine games. Arsenal have won by more than a full goal in five of those but last season were held to a goalless draw at the Stadium of Light. After last weekends’ home draw with Middlesbrough it is a brave man who backs Arsenal giving up more than a full goal especially ahead of an away game in the Champions League. Do we trust Sunderland? No. Manchester United v Burnley Man Utd -2 and 2.75 goals The sides have met twice in EPL action in the 2009-10 and 2014-15 season. On each occasion United ran out comfortable winners as they registered a 3-1 win in February 2015 and 3-0 in January 2010. We all know how Jose uses deflectionary tactics and here Burnley look perfect fodder for such a response after that pathetic United display at Stamford Bridge. Burnley have already lost by two goals at Southampton and by three goals at Chelsea and Leicester already this season on the road. I can’t believe I am saying this but even laying two goals I really like the home team. Middlesbrough v Bournemouth PK and 2.25 goals Middlesbrough have scored just four goals in their last seven EPL games and have not scored more than once at home all season. Very quietly Eddie Howe’s men have gone 3-3-1 in...
Match Week 9
posted by Todd
Match week 9 kicks off in earnest with a number of clubs returning to domestic league action after a busy week of European competition. To break it all down including the return of Jose Mourinho to Stamford Bridge James Kempton, our football insider from across the pond, is here to help. Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur Spurs -0.5 and 2.5 goals Last season Tottenham won the two meetings of the sides 5-1 here on the south coast and 3-0 back in north London. Spurs were priced at -0.75 for their trip to West Brom last weekend and failed to deliver for many punters. The Cherries’ price for this match has benefited from playing a Hull side last weekend that’s clearly in free fall. I sense this line is the right line but I do like Spurs to get back to their winning ways here and will take them minus half a goal. Arsenal v Middlesbrough Arsenal -1.75 and 3 goals The pressure is building up on Aitor Karanka at Middlesbrough and given his ‘walkabout’ last season I’m sensing patience with him won’t be high on Steve Gibson and the board’s agenda. Middlesbrough have only scored more than once in a game on just one occasion and that came away at lowly Sunderland. I just cannot see them creating many chances so give me the home side to cover a prohibitive looking handicap. Burnley v Everton Everton -0.75 and 2.5 goals Are Everton an elite side? That is the question we have to ask ourselves going into this match. I don’t think any side in the EPL, until maybe late in the season when certain clubs have thrown the towel in, should be priced up -0.75 away from home unless they are in that elite category. Including...
EPL Round 8
posted by Todd
The boys are back this weekend! International break be damned it’s time for some domestic league fun in the Premiership. Every match on the slate serves as mere appetizers for the main course between blue blood clubs Liverpool and Manchester United at Anfield. James Kempton is here to share all his best betting analysis for what should be a fun slate of fixtures. Chelsea vs Leicester City Chelsea -1 and 2.75 goals This is a big line for Chelsea to cover given the fact Leicester have suffered just three losses on this line in their last forty five league games. However, two of those ocurred this season. This line is made even harder to cover by the fact that Leicester have scored in all four meetings of the sides over the past two season. It’s the away team or pass for me and I am leaning towards the pass given the fact the Foxes have conceded ten goals in their three road games at Hull, Liverpool and Manchester United so far this season. Arsenal v Swansea City Arsenal -1.75 and 3.25 goals Bob Bradley’s first game and I sense this appointment for Swansea could be a complete disaster. The Swans have actually won their last two trips to the Emirates in league action and their similar pattern of play to the Gunners obviously causes Wenger’s men some problems. I don’t like the away team long term but they could see a short term bounce for their new coach and the trends favour them here. Take the Swans plus the one and three quarters. Bournemouth v Hull City Bournemouth -0.5 goals and 2.25 goals After a horrific run of fixtures for Hull they will see this as a great opportunity to get some points on...
EPL ROund 7
posted by Todd
We will call this is the weekend of the heavy favourite. There are no fewer than four teams giving a goal or more in their respective matches and three of them actually find themselves on the road. James Kempton offers his thoughts and analysis on every match to put your wagering dollars to work this weekend. Everton v Crystal Palace Everton -0.75 and 2.75 goals Friday Night Football is back and this should be a cracker as Alan Pardew’s men return north following that amazing come from behind win at Sunderland last weekend. It was one apiece last season and the Eagles registered two 3-2 victories in their other recent trips to Merseyside to take on the Toffees. Despite those historical results I lean to the home team…but after last weeks let down it won’t be for cold hard cash! Swansea City v Liverpool Liverpool -1.25 and 3 goals Swansea matched Man City for long periods of their game last Saturday but it was the extra class of City that eventually saw them pull away and win by two clear goals. Over 2.5 goals is 7-3 in the last ten meetings of the sides with over 3.5 goals going 6-4 in that run. I lean to the underdog and over the total but if the game becomes a shootout Liverpool have far more ammunition to shoot than the Swans. Hull City v Chelsea Chelsea -1 and 2.75 goals Many teams may face the kind of wrath on Merseyside this season that saw Hull succumb 5-1 last weekend but I am not convinced that this Chelsea side has that kind of ‘blow away’ ability. I sense Chelsea is more workmanlike than the other top teams in this league so I am happy to take Hull...
EPL Round 6
posted by Todd
An EPL season without drama at Old Trafford isn’t an EPL season at all. Fortunately the proud club is still fighting for it’s new identity under Jose Mourinho; a far cry from the resurgence being experienced by their Man City neighbors. The biggest match of the weekend takes place in London with city bragging rights on the line between Arsenal and Chelsea. James Kempton’s here to shed light on all things EPL this weekend. Manchester United v Leicester City Man Utd -0.75 and 2.5 goals Both games ended all square last season with 1-1 draws. If you include the Community Shield played back in August all five meetings of the sides since September 2014 have seen Yes on BTTS land. All the pressure going into this game is heaped onto the home team as it’s tough to remember when a Mourinho led team lost three games in a week. I will take the Yes on Both Teams To Score as my favourite bet here on what appears to be a tricky looking match and goal market line. Bournemouth v Everton Everton -0.25 and 2.5 goals The sides met three times last season and Everton scored at least twice in each of those games with the League game here finishing 3-3. When I priced this game up in my mind I had Everton as a -0.5 favourite but I think the books are don’t want to show a knee jerk reaction to Everton’s recent strong performances. Last time out I believed they offered value at home to Middlesbrough and after a nervous start won easily. I will continue to back Everton until either the books adjust correctly or they let me down…it worked quite well with Leicester a season ago. Liverpool v Hull City Liverpool...
EPL Round 5
posted by Todd
The Premier League never fails to disappoint and last weekend we were treated to a real cracker in the Manchester Derby. This weekend we have a rare Friday Night football match between two of the largest clubs in England. Sit back, relax, and let James Kempton do the heavy lifting to get your gambling mind right this week. Chelsea v Liverpool Chelsea -0.25 and 2.75 goals We have contrasting goal trends going into this exciting Friday Night Football offering. Yes on BTTS has gone 11-3 in the last fourteen competitive meetings of the sides but recently the under 2.5 goals is 5-2 in the last seven between them. John Terry is ruled out of this match so there will be some defensive reshuffling required by the home team and that should favour this attacking looking Liverpool team. If you could predict that the away team would put in an adequate performance you could side with them but they are so unpredictable it’s hard to trust them. This is one to sit back and enjoy as your weekend starts and those who do want to place a bet may just take a little piece of the unders. Listen to the EPL podcast Hull v Arsenal Arsenal -1 and 2.5 goals Arsenal were in Paris midweek for their Champions League campaign and it may only have been a quick hop over the channel but I am loathed to give up a full goal in view of that trip. Having said that they have made the trek to Hull five times since January 2009 and outscored the Tigers 15-4 covering this line four times and pushing the other visit. The effort we’ve seen from the home team so far this season though makes me keep away from...
EPL Round 4
posted by Todd
International break be damned, the EPL is back in action come this weekend. Not only do we have a full slate of fixtures but right out of the gates the soccer gods have given us an early season derby with major table implications. To make sense of everything by identifying the best betting angles James Kempton is here to do all the heavy lifting. Manchester United v Manchester City Manchester United -0.25 and 2.5 goals Last season saw just one goal scored in the two meetings of the sides in EPL action. I cannot see that happening over the course of the two games this campaign. The openness with which Man City plays at times makes it hard to believe that the top sides will not be able to create chances against them. Despite this being a big game at the top of the table I’m happy to take a bit of the over 2.5 goals in what should be a very exciting game. Looking for more breakdowns? Listen to the “official” EPL punters podcast Arsenal v Southampton Arsenal -1 and 2.75 goals Since the Saints returned to the EPL in August 2012; 5-3 to the under 2.5 goals in those matches as Southampton’s busy style seems to hamper the Gunners play. Arsenal hit three last time out away at Watford but this is a different challenge. The goal line is set here at a quarter of a goal higher than I’d expected so if I was betting this game I would look to take the unders on this goal line. Bournemouth v West Bromwich Albion Bournemouth -0.5 and 2 goals It was 1-1 on the south coast back at the end of last season whilst the return fixture just before Christmas ended...
EPL Round 3
posted by Todd
From the outset I have to say this is a very tough looking week as we wait for the form lines to develop. It is a long season so there is no need to rush into bets just for the sake of making bets or as my buddies like to say, “be involved in the action.” A marathon rather than a sprint it truly is so do not unload your bankroll early on in the campaign for games that look tight. In weeks like this I spread the risk over more games but drastically lower the stakes. by James Kempton Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Tottenham -0.25 and 2.75 goals The game of the week is the first game of the weekend! Last season we saw two games hit an under 2.5 goals as both ended all square. Prior to that over 2.5 goals was on a 6-0 run when these sides face off in EPL action. Liverpool are unbeaten in the last seven meetings of the sides with Spurs’ last win at White Hart Lane back in November 2012. After last weekends’ debacle at Burnley only a mad man would back Liverpool in this spot. I expect the influential Mane to return into the Reds’ midfield and I see him as a huge threat going forward for the Reds. With the lines set as they are though I can only offer a tentative lean towards the home team minus a quarter of a goal but even that is based on my trust of Tottenham over my dis-trust of the Reds. Betting football this fall? Check out these special promotions for new customers and available reload bonuses at BetOnline! Chelsea v Burnley Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals Don’t leave your seats early at Stamford Bridge...
EPL Podcast
posted by Todd
Just reading about the big matches this weekend not enough? Here’s the EPL podcast from Pete Nordsted and James Kempton Read the match capsules here...