By James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) 3 way line: Liverpool +105 Sunderland +230 Draw 2.5 U-120 2 way line: Liverpool -.5, +115 Sunderland +.5, -135 The EPL returns to our screens this weekend following a short break for the ongoing World Cup 2014 qualifications.  Of the many intriguing games offered this weekend, there is one that I believe presents bettors with opportunities to prosper.  Sunderland hosts Liverpool in the late UK game on Saturday (kick off 12:30 eastern) broadcast live on Fox Soccer Channel with both sides looking to register their first win of the season. Sunderland has played just two games, both on the road, drawing 0-0 at Arsenal and 2-2 at Swansea.  Both results can be viewed as great road performances given the strength of Arsenal and the early season promise shown from Swansea.  They should have played three games already but a freak thunderstorm flooded their ‘Stadium of Light’ field and forced the cancellation of their home opener with Reading.  This will be the first opportunity of the season for the frenzied home support of the ‘Mackem Faithful’ to show their love for their side.  Liverpool’s early season results are less than impressive, losing 3-0 on the road at West Brom, drawing 2-2 at home to Man City, and then dropping a 2-0 decision at home to Arsenal. Brendan Rodgers is an extremely focused manager who has a clear goal in mind for the style of play his teams need to adopt. Early performances show that there is a lot of work to be done in transforming this Liverpool side to a team capable of reflecting Rodgers’ favoured mould. The international break should have allowed time for some analysis of those early games, where silly mistakes have cost them dearly and I...

Written by James Kempton (follow him @ukbettingpro for all your soccer needs) Throughout history, statistics show teams are far stronger on their home turf than on the road it’s not exactly rocket science in sport.  The common perception of home field advantage is that smaller teams travel into the ‘Lions Den’ of their larger rivals with the home crowd baying for blood as the reluctant visitors meekly surrender to the far superior clubs. However, these are highly paid professionals  at the top of their craft and despite a league imbalance between top and bottom, surely a few cat calls and obscenities screamed at them shouldn’t take these elite footballers off their game…should it? The tactics employed by road teams often differ markedly from their style of play at home. Obtaining a draw away from home is typically the main goal while an outright win serves as a huge bonus. If you needed proof that teams perform better at home than on the road, here it is:  looking at just the last five seasons of EPL action (discounting now relegated sides), you see some startling numbers. Of the 69 qualifying seasons I reviewed, 65 out of 69 times teams racked up more points at home than on the highway. The real test of home field advantage is comparing the home/road differential impact it can have on a teams’ performance. To assess accurately, the only real measure is dissecting the % of points a side gains from their home fixtures. Good teams with quality players tend to be good wherever they play and handle the pressures of playing on the road with professionalism.  Below I’ve highlighted three of the smaller clubs who offer betting value at home given their huge home/road disparity Since their promotion to...

  EPL Insider James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) This forthcoming EPL season presents us with great opportunities to make some cash. Over the course of the season we’ll provide weekly installments highlighting some of the league’s biggest games and best money making opportunities.  However, for now we’ll concentrate on the futures market for the EPL title to try and pinpoint where the preseason value lies if in fact there is some to be had. If I was to offer you a savings rate in a bank that yielded an interest rate of over 100% you may literally bite my hand off! Yet when bettors are presented with an opportunity to cash a ticket at an extended future date they always appear reluctant. Unlike American sport where the concept of parity makes long term investors wary, European soccer is not nearly as risky. In the majority of leagues you can discount 80% of the teams before the first whistle is sounded. In reality the EPL title is already only a four horse race and the two main contenders for the EPL crown can both be backed at a price over even money. A blind equal stake wager on both Man City (+125) and Man United (+325) to win the EPL will return, if one of them becomes champion, at least a 12.5% return for the year (maybe even more depending on odds offered at your house of choice). The conundrum that faces all of us as bettors though is asset allocation. Few, if any, have a bottomless betting bank so the thought of apportioning a percentage of our betting bank aside for nine months can be off putting. If your bet was to be $100, rather than tie it up for a nine month period the bettors psychology is to make that $100 grow during the 9 month span....

Written by Bobby Dolan (follow him on twitter @bdolan12) Group D: France, Sweden, England, Ukraine Snap Shot: Group D appears to be a very balanced group that gives us arguably the best matchup in the first round of group games between England and France (yes, we haven’t forgotten Germany vs Portugal either). All eyes will be on those two powers but the co-hosts Ukraine will look to steal the spotlight with their fans behind them and a sneaky offensive attack that could and should cause problems for their opponents. Fans of the Swedes will have to look at one player and hope Zlatan Ibrahimovic can carry their squad into the knockout phases. Group C Schedule: Monday June 11 12 EST: France vs. England Monday June 11 2:45 EST: Ukraine vs. Sweden Friday June 15 12 EST: Ukraine vs. France Friday June 15 2:45 EST: Sweden vs. England Tuesday June 19 2:45 EST: England vs. Ukraine Tuesday June 19 2:45 EST: Sweden vs. France France FIFA ranking: 16 After the disastrous World Cup performance in 2010, it was hard to imagine that France would emerge from the soccer abyss as a threat for Euro 2012. Coach Laurent Blanc has done exceptionally well in changing the culture around the team and he is confident in his squad entering this year’s tournament, hoping it’s a spring board for Brazil in 2014. Coach Blanc’s confidence comes with good reason as his French side is flying very much under the radar given their current talent. It starts up front for France as they boast Karim Benzema (Real Madrid), who is coming off of a career year. Benzema should score goals aplenty and receive quality service from the midfield behind him. Franck Ribery, another Bayern Munich star who looks to rebound from their...

Written by @bdolan12 Group C: Croatia, Italy, Ireland, Spain Snap Shot: Group C looks to be an interesting mix of teams that has everything from the tournament favorite (Spain), a team playing their first EURO in 24 years (Ireland), and a side caught in the middle of major match fixing allegations (Italy). Group C offers intriguing questions, most importantly: Can Spain continue its dominance and win EURO 2012 on the heels of their 2010 World Cup championship? Group C Schedule Sunday, June 10 12 EST: Spain vs. Italy Sunday, June 10 2:45 EST: Ireland vs. Croatia Thursday, June 14 12 EST: Italy vs. Croatia Thursday, June 14 2:45 EST: Spain vs. Ireland Monday, June 18 2:45 EST: Croatia vs. Spain Monday, June 18 2:45 EST: Italy vs. Ireland Croatia FIFA ranking: 8 After missing out on the 2010 World Cup, Croatia will be happy to be involved in a major tournament once again. However, this tactically strong team measures their success based on results not just appearing on the big stage. The key to their squad is Tottenham’s star midfielder Luka Modric. The playmaking midfielder is by far the most well known player on the squad needs to serve as primary distributor if the Croats are to advance from Group C. Niko Krancjar, also of Tottenham, and captain Darijo Srna strengthen the midfield which is clearly the team’s overall strength. With a less than spectacular defense, there will be an emphasis on scoring goals to take pressure off the back. Up front, there are a few decent options in Eduardo and Ivica Olic who have 45 and 77 caps respectively. However, Olic suffered a thigh injury this week in a friendly and might be limited entering the tournament. Another interesting option is Nikica Jelavic,...

Written by @bdolan12 Group B: Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Portugal Snap Shot: Group B has been rightfully labeled as “The Group of Death” and features both Germany and Holland, the 2nd and 3rd favorites on most future boards to win the entire tournament. In any other group Portugal and Denmark would receive a lot more consideration as tournament dark horses but just getting out of their group should be considered a major triumph given this year’s competition. Group B Schedule Saturday, June 9 12 EST:  Netherlands vs Denmark Saturday, June 9 2:45 EST:  Germany vs Portugal Wednesday, June 13 12 EST:  Denmark vs Portugal Wednesday, June 13 2:45 EST:  Netherlands vs Germany Sunday, June 17 2:45 EST:  Denmark vs Germany Sunday, June 17 2:45 EST:  Netherlands vs Portugal Denmark FIFA ranking: 10 It’s hard not to feel a little sorry for the Danes after the draw they received. Denmark has  confidence knowing they finished first in qualifying Group H, which included Portugal. Denmark possesses a solid squad that is effective and efficient, even if it lacks star power. Captain Daniel Agger, a Liverpool player, will lead the defense against the potent offenses the Danes will encounter throughout Group B. In addition to the draw, Denmark was dealt a blow recently when first-choice goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen (Stoke City) pulled out of the tournament with an injury. Young midfielder Christian Eriksen (Ajax) will be counted on to make plays going forward and serve as playmaker but he might not be ready for this stiff task just yet. The main source of offense appears to be Nicklas Bendtner, the 24 year old forward who is never low on confidence but can be short on actual production. If Denmark is to have any success, they will likely need to...

Written by @bdolan12 Euro 2012 kicks off  June 8th in Poland / Ukraine and will culminate July 1 with a champion being crowned. This will be the last installment of the tournament before the field is expanded to 24 teams four years from now so expect the 16-team field to provide excellent entertainment and inevitable drama. I’ll be breaking down each group and offering  some predictions and analysis of each group starting with today’s installment. Group A: Poland, Czech Republic, Greece, Russia Snap shot: Group A appears to be the weakest of the four groups and certainly the most wide-open of them all. The group isn’t home to any elite European power or traditional blue blood so the question remains which up and coming nation will seize the opportunity on the big stage? Group A Schedule Friday, June 8 12 EST: Poland vs Greece Friday, June 8 2:45 EST: Russia vs Czech Republic Tuesday, June 12 12 EST: Greece vs Czech Republic Tuesday, June 12 2:45 EST: Poland vs Russia Saturday, June 16 2:45 EST: Greece vs Russia Saturday, June 16 2:45 EST: Czech Republic vs Poland Poland FIFA ranking: 65 The co-hosts hope to take advantage of a favorable draw on home soil. Poland looks to get off to a hot start with the opening game of the tournament against Greece. With automatic qualification ensured, the squad has not played many competitive matches over the past few years. The team leans heavily on young forward Robert Lewandowski, one of three players on the squad who play for German Bundesliga champions Borussia Dortmund. Lewandowski had an excellent season for Dortmund and will attempt to make the difference up front for the Polish team. In addition to the young striker, the Polish side also features...

Contributed by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) The finale of the Champions League takes place today when Bayern Munich plays Chelsea at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Both teams have battled adversity to reach this night with Bayern playing 14 games (as they had to pre-qualify) and Chelsea having 12 encounters along the way. Both teams were dogs in their respective semi finals as they faced the might of the Spanish giants, Barcelona and Real Madrid. Incredible performances saw each side triumph and earn their place in this prestigious showpiece event. Chelsea snatched an amazing 3-2 aggregate win over Barcelona with a resolute defensive display showing true English spirit. Their 2-2 away result in the Nou Camp in Barcelona was achieved despite playing much of the game with just 10 men. They were reduced in numbers due to the idiotic actions of talismanic captain John Terry who kicked a Barcelona forward away from the action and was given a straight red card. This only appeared to galvanise Chelsea’s resolve and drove them to a level of performance that not many felt such an old team would be capable of against a power like Barca. Given the straight red, John Terry’s services won’t be available for today’s championship. In addition to Terry, Chelsea will be without defender Ivanovic and midfielders Meireles and Ramires. Of the four absentees I see the loss of Ramires as critical. Chelsea will miss the young Brazilians energy and ability to close the opposition down and regain possession for the Blues. Along with the suspension issues, Chelsea has injury concerns to defenders Cahill and Luiz. Coach Di Matteo will keep his selections as close to the vest as possible to not give any advantage to Munich. This will mean...

  By James Kempton The final whistle sounded at Etihad last Monday and the stadium, sans 2,500 Manchester United fans, erupted to a chorus of cheers. Manchester City’s 1-0 win over their city neighbours and chief rivals for the EPL title ensures they are in control of their own destiny headed into the final two games. I could not help but think though as the players were lapping up the praise and adulation that it may be a bit premature since the race to EPL glory often has late twists and turns. In midweek, the eyes of Manchester centred on West London as Newcastle travelled to Chelsea. Never has a fifth plays sixth game been watched with such intensity as by the fans of the two Manchester clubs. If, as expected, Chelsea overcame Newcastle then the chance of Champions League qualification would be vanquished. That would have made Manchester City’s trip to the North East this Sunday much easier. However, the +600 dog Geordies did not read the script and go quietly into the night instead grabbing an amazing 2-0 win with the global fan base for Manchester United squarely behind them. Both goals in that win were scored by the hugely talented Papiss Cisse and his second goal is a contender for the best goal in EPL history. Partnering along side Cisse is Demba Ba and despite him going cold on the goalscoring front of late they will be a formidable partnership for City to contain. Man City is 9-5-4 on the road so can you really trust them as heavy favorites given the fact they only win half of their road games? Couple that with Newcastle’s 11-2-5 record and you create an awfully compelling match-up. However, all of you thinking of wagering on Newcastle this...

By Soccer Guru James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) Chelsea travels to the majestic Camp Nou with a slender 1-0 advantage gained  in last week’s first leg. The Blues were able to escape that game without conceding a pivotal away goal which could end up being the difference should Barcelona only beat Chelsea by one goal in today (assuming Chelsea isn’t shut out). The first matchup was dominated by Barcelona as they controlled the pace and tempo of the game from the opening kickoff. Barcelona wasted numerous opportunities in front of goal and could have run out comfortable winners if they’d converted around the goal mouth. However, they didn’t and as Barcelona boss ‘Pep’ Guardiola quite rightly said “if the game was decided by possession stats we would never lose a game, it is about putting the ball into the back of the net. They did and we didn’t.” Very rarely, before such an important Champions League encounter, will both teams face huge fixtures in their domestic campaigns like Chelsea and Barcelona did on Saturday. I was fortunate to be at The Emirates Stadium last Saturday to see Chelsea earn a 0-0 draw against Arsenal utilizing a quality display of counter attacking football. They sat off the hosts, as they will on Tuesday, springing lively when the opportunity arose. In anticipation of today’s showdown, Chelsea boss Roberto Di Matteo rested his whole midfield quartet to save their legs. Di Matteo is acutely aware of the hard work that those four will be required to undertake in this second leg if they’re to make the 1 goal differential hold-up in hostile territory. Conversely, Barcelona was not afforded the same luxury since the magnitude of ‘El Classico’ (the nickname for their game against Real Madrid)...

By resident EPL Expert James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro ) Over the next eight EPL games, five teams (Blackburn, Bolton, QPR, Wigan and Wolves) will battle to retain EPL status for next season.  The sums of cash involved in the EPL ensure the teams and players will be put under immense pressure to perform just to maintain their place in Europe’s most prestigious soccer league.  From our standpoint as bettors is how can we use relegation as a useful handicapping angle in each team’s quest for survival. The common perception is that if you are being chased by a lion you’ll sprint a lot faster than if you are running without the fear of imminent death! Those principles are often applied to professional sports betting through the ‘need to win’ theory. You hear phrases such as “it means more to team A than to team B” or “They will be more focused for it today than their opposition who is squarely in the middle of the pack”. However, these thoughts creep into the minds of the odds makers too so you will see lines tighten for no apparent reason other than teams at the bottom of the ladder are in need to win mode. Like all good financial disclaimers I’ll state now that past performance is no indicator of future returns. I broke down the performances of the bottom five placed teams from the last five EPL seasons over their final eight games of each respective season. The obvious perception is that fear of relegation will lead to a greater average points haul per game. You would expect with the trap door to potential financial oblivion for both club and player that their results would improve. However, of the 25 campaigns analyzed,...

by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)   There is no place like home for Manchester City this season in the EPL as their record at Etihad reads played 14 and won 14. They return home tonight for this key game four points adrift of rivals Manchester United in the chase for the league title. Chelsea’s record on the highway is mediocre managing just 5 wins from their 14 games away from Stamford Bridge. A simple glance at the stats tells you this is a sure fire win for Man City but recent events at both clubs and current form tell us it won’t be quite that simple. City has not performed well lately when it comes to their travels compiling 3 defeats in their last 5 EPL road games allowing bitter rival Manchester United take hold of the table. Oddly enough the shaky road form isn’t evident in home performances as they remain perfect in their own building. However some of this recent success is attributed to the fact they haven’t hosted a team in the top half of the table since January 22nd. City has a bizarre locker room mix of good solid professionals and complete headcases. There is massive pressure on the team today and with personalities like Mario Balotelli and Carlos Tevez anything is possible. Strong rumors already swirl of significant dressing room unrest over manager Mancini’s apparent leniency towards to the outlandish actions, on and off field, of Balotelli.  Macini’s rigorous training regime also appears to be taking a toll on the player’s legs as the side just hasn’t had the same explosion they did earlier in the year. One more bad result today and I sense the dressing room would be dangerously close to imploding. Whether or...