Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) The most famous rivalry in English football returns to our screens this Sunday morning when Manchester United host Liverpool at Old Trafford, kick off 830am EST. The rivalry extgoes way back and this is the 187th meeting of the two sides. The power base has shifted back and forth over time with the reds of Manchester currently leading with 73 wins, 62 victories to Liverpool and 51 draws. United go into the game in a very confident mood as they lead the table. Liverpool fans will approach the contest with renewed optimism as the recent upturn in their results gives them hope of obtaining a result in this fixture.  United have an impressive seven point lead at the top of the table over city neighbours Manchester City. With City travelling to Arsenal later on in the day any further advantage gained by United may almost hand them the title this Sunday if they can add to their 7 pt advantage. Liverpool has been the butt of many a joke so far this season with their inconsistent performances. Despite poor defeats against both Aston Villa and Stoke in December they are still 8th in the EPL table. They remain well within striking distance of a European spot for next season, maybe even a coveted Champions League position. Brendan Rodgers appears to be moving things in the correct direction at Anfield but to progress to the next level his side must learn how to beat teams in the top half of the standings. All eight of their EPL wins this season have come against sides in the bottom half of the league. In fact only 5 of their 31 total points come against the top half of the draw. Throughout...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) There comes a time in every great sporting dynasty when the tide begins to turn and the continuation of the norm comes under scrutiny. That is the exact situation we see at Arsenal now with boss Arsene Wenger under the microscope once more as yet another trophy-less season beckons. Last week Arsenal faced arguably their greatest humiliation in the successful Wenger led era. A virtual full strength side crashed out of the Carling Cup quarter final away to League Two Bradford City. In previous seasons this would have been accepted because Arsenal historically fielded a weakened team in this competition. Such a strong side sent out by Arsenal suggested they saw this as their biggest chance to gain silverware. That defeat was a crushing blow and turned this game into a massive test of character for his side. The Arsenal fan base can be clearly defined now between the AKB’s and the AKFA. AKB stands for ‘Arsene Knows Best’ and AKFA stands for ‘Arsene Knows F A‘. I can let your well educated minds work out what the FA stands for! This divide now is mainly due to the stubborness of Wenger and has split the fans right down the middle. Around half of which believe that Wenger has the determination, experience and strength of character to arrest the recent slide. The other camp, seemingly growing in number each week, feel it is time to move on and away from Wenger. Ironically, as split as the Arsenal fan base is the statistics for this game are also split right down the middle. All of these background factors makes this such an interesting Monday Night Football in the full glare of the nation live on Sky Sports. This...

by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) This Sunday sees the two current giants of the EPL meeting head to head at The Etihad Stadium in Manchester. Host Manchester City trails their fierce rival Manchester United by three points but this gives them the opportunity to draw level at the top of the table with the Red Devils. Conversely this match offers United to chance to put the clear daylight of a full six points between them and the Blues.  Six points would be a large gap for City to claw back, even at this stage of the season. Both teams suffered defeats in midweek action in the Champions League.  Although United’s defeat at home to Cluj was arguably more surprising, the loss for City away against Borrussia Dortmund signalled the end to their embarrassing European campaign for the season.  City’s tally of three points is the lowest by an English side in the group stage of the competition. Could such European humiliation lead to a big response from Roberto Mancini’s City players? Maybe but I am not sure I can trust their apparent fractious dressing room to respond so positively. This season their play has been indifferent but credit to them as they continue to pick the points up. You know you will get a committed and honest performance from United under Sir Alex Ferguson. The current market prices have City as quite strong favourites but rather than oppose them outright I sense another market may offer better betting opportunities. At first glance there has been an equal distribution of the over/under 2.5 goal line in recent meetings as 5 have hit the over with 7 going under that line. However, when you drill down a bit deeper into the statistics there...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) Fulham v Tottenham Considering that only two of the last seven meetings between these sides has cashed the over 2.5 goal ticket, my choice here may strike you as a bit odd. However, both teams always look fragile against mobile passing teams as their midfield players do not appear capable of protecting their defence to enable them to keep a clean sheet.  Spurs have won the last five meetings and are unbeaten in the last seven games. This season Fulham has scored in every home game they have played and Tottenham’s found the back of the net in each of their away games.  Both sides play tight and intricate passing games which should help create chances galore at Crave Cottage.  With Dimitar Berbatov (Fulham) and Clint Dempsey (Tottenham) keen to get on the scoresheet against their former clubs, this game should produce excitement at both ends of the field. Man City v Everton Everton has won five of the last six meetings of the two sides and before last seasons defeat in Mancheste,r they had won four straight games on the road at the Etihad Stadium. All seven of Everton’s away games this season have seen at least two goals scored whilst five of seven games at City have gone over the 2.5 goal line. Everton are particularly strong at set pieces, corners and free kicks, so I take them to get on the scoresheet for sure. The strength of City at home over the past few seasons tells you that it will be a tough game as Manchester has been a fortress for the defending champions.  We all know about the attacking prowess of City but in Fellaini and Jelavic the blues from Merseyside...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) My pre season EPL column suggested that only two clubs are capable of winning this seasons EPL crown; Manchester City and Manchester United. Twelve matches into the campaign, just under a third of the total games to be played, those two teams sit aloft at the top of the table. The troubling thing for any team wanting to challenge is that both teams have showed weaknesses. Despite the obvious flaws within both sets of players so far, no other side has managed to keep pace with them. I advised at the beginning of the season that backing both sides blindly should provide a minimum of a 12.5% profit if you were prepared to tie your funds up for nine months. That calculation was with a futures price of Manchester City +125 and Manchester United +325. So, where are we now price wise and what should bettors do at present whether they hold a futures ticket or are yet to enter this market.  Existing ticket holders may opt to do nothing but new  entrants to this particular market may see some short term value with what I detail below. The period between late November and New Years Day is always a hectic time for professional footballers. In the 38 days between 25th November and 1st January both teams play ten games in a period that will define their seasons. I have listed below those fixtures against each other as the schedule for both teams throws up some potential short term value. Manchester City            Manchester United A Chelsea                        H QPR A Wigan                          H West Ham H Everton                      A Reading A  Dortmund (UCL)    H Cluj UCL H Man Utd                    A Man City A Newcastle                  H Sunderland H...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @Ukbettingpro) Here we go again for another action packed EPL weekend and this week I’ve had an unfamiliar problem. This season has seen the markets more accurately priced than ever and betting opportunities have been relatively limited.  However, this week there appears to be too many opportunities for us to try and take advantage of the possibilities.  Our betting banks are not an unlimited pot of cash though so I have waded through the card and highlighted my best three bets for the weekend. Newcastle v Swansea Newcastle has found it hard to repeat their amazing performance of last season early in the campaign.  Whether it is the expectancy to build on their previous successes of or their midweek excursions throughout Europe, they have not fired on all cylinders.  They host a Swansea side who maintains a mid table position but have struggled since the opening three weeks.  Following a points haul of seven from their first three games, Swansea has only picked up 6 points in their last 8 matches.  This meeting ended with clean sheets both ways at Newcastle last year and the Geordies winning the away match in Wales 2-0.  An under 2.5 ticket has cashed in 3 of 6 games at Newcastle so far this season whilst Swansea’s last 4 away games have hit under 2.5 goals.  Swansea should dominate the time of possession and limit the explosiveness of the Newcastle forward line.  Back under 2.5 & 3 goals Norwich v Manchester United This should be an excellent game at Carrow Road which boasts one of the best playing surfaces in the EPL. United stumbled a bit last time out as Aston Villa led 2-0 just after the half time interval.  It’s never...

By James Kempton (follow him on twitter @UKBettingpro) When I was a more inexperienced bettor I dismissed trend analysis as a pointless research exercise. Who cares that in 2007 Aston Villa drew away to Manchester United; I mean how is that relevant in 2012? Maybe it was the countless bad beats or maybe it was myself trudging around nightclubs at 1:55am looking for a willing playmate that brought me to this conclusion; Sports teams, just like human beings, trend towards repeating past failures and successes. We are only ten games into the new EPL season but already noticeable trends are emerging.  I feel we have a big enough sample size, just over a quarter of the way through the season, to begin to firm up our opinions on teams. Styles of play are firmly ingrained into the teams fabrics so the attacking teams who produce goals should have offense a plenty in their games to come. Those teams that make defending a priority over attacking flare should continue to partake in boring defensive struggles. Traditionally the goal line for EPL games is set at the 2.5 mark. The odds tended to be lower for the overs bet to be landed but there were minimal lines where the prospect of a push came into play as rarely was the line set at 3 goals.  As the game has become more offensive, this line has ticked upwards with many lines now set at a flat three goals. Rather than fear the push, as bettors we should look to use this concept as our friend.  This season in the EPL the third goal in the game is often just the start of the action!  Below are listed some early season goal trends that I sense will continue, at least into the...

Written by James Kempton   Manchester United entertain Arsenal this weekend for Saturdays early morning game, kick off 845am EST, in what should be a very intriguing encounter. This meeting should be a showcase of the might and power of these two EPL giants. However, nothing could be further from the truth as both show huge signs of weakness that the rest of the clubs in the league are beginning to understand and understand how to exploit them. My analysis of both teams is going to be harsh so fans of the two clubs may want to turn away now! Where better to start picking these two teams apart than with the home side in this contest. United are in defensive shambles with a complete inability to keep a clean sheet. Their defence is an aging unit lacking speed and their midfield seems incapable of giving them any protective barrier against opposition attacks. The last few seasons had seen Sir Alex Ferguson attempt to adopt a more cautious continental approach to their style of play. Defensive strength was at the forefront of their game playing as they looked to squeeze the offensive threat out of teams and to win the game in a low scoring encounter. Sir Alex is no fool though as you do not have the incredible success in football that he has achieved without knowing the game inside out. He has quickly realized that this season he doesn’t have the personnel to play this type of game. Their last 8 EPL games has seen the over 2.5 goals ticket cash, with 6 of those winning on an over 3.5 goal line. Every home game at Old Trafford this season has seen that 3.5 goal line hit with 20 goals in those...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) Manchester United host Stoke City as they look to continue their push to regain their EPL crown. This fixture has always been one where United excelled as they are yet to lose to Stoke in their eight EPL meetings. Stoke has not even been able to grab a point yet from the four trips to Old Trafford however, this year more than ever they will travel in hope given United’s apparent defensive frailties in the early part of the season. Six of United’s seven games have seen the over 2.5 goal ticket cash. In contrast Stoke have been frugal with just one of their seven games hitting three or more goals. I do feel that Stoke, with their more direct style, will cause the United backline some issues. Dead ball situations in particular are an area that Stoke could over power United and look to capitalize. United should be able to dominate the possession though and this should ensure plenty of chances are created by the home team. I take Stoke to score in this game though and given the obvious goal threat United possess I love the over 2.5 goal ticket to be one you can expect to cash. West Ham entertain newly promoted Southampton at Upton Park. The home side have had an excellent start to the season and they are strong favourites to build on that start in this game. The 1.90 (-110 for those on the other side of the pon) being offered for the home win is appealing as their manager, ‘Big’ Sam Allardyce, will be targeting opponents such as Southampton for three points. However, I would rather look towards the goals market in this game for the best bet....

 Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) It’s human nature to root for things to happen rather than for them not to happen. Sports bettors aren’t immune to this phenomenon which is why there’s always a reluctance for them to neglect betting unders in any sport. The EPL goal lines are no different as they are always weighted slightly in favour of the overs. With the abundance of goals so far this season the goal line for many games has been adjusted to a full three goals as opposed to the traditional 2.5 mark. There is an upward trend towards more offense than in previous campaigns with an average of 2.81 goals per game. So far this season, six games in, the average stands at 2.9 goals per game and thus the line makers continue to adjust lines up and squeeze the value out of the overs. This weeks slate of games sees nearly half the totals at 3 meaning any time you see a line set at 2.5 goals, the line should be examined for any potential value opportunities. In this age of a free scoring EPL normally this would be slanted towards the over but this is not always the case. In fact, of the three games with a 2.5 goal line that interest me this week, two are to the under and just one to the over. Everton travels to Wigan with the Toffemen flying high in the league tables and genuine hopes of pushing for a Champions League spot. David Moyes’ side have an excellent record at Wigan and are unbeaten in the last seven meetings between the two sides. Only one of seven meetings on Wigan soil has seen the over 2.5 goals cash. Nothing I have seen so far this season suggests Wigan...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) This weekend sees a number of opportunities in the EPL where bettors can greatly enhance their profits by parlaying their fancies. Personally, I am not a big fan of parlays since we all know that single bets are the way forward. Casinos don’t build themselves and the weekly dose of parlay defeats has put many a brick in those foundations. Disclaimer aside, they are fun bets to make if not taken too seriously and can bring huge rewards if utilized correctly. There are 3 teams this weekend I feel present excellent betting opportunities.  These teams should be considered for single wagers and also for cross sport/league larger bets.  It is no surprise to those that read my work all 3 teams figure highly in my weekly EPL rankings.  However, despite their apparent strength this season, they all continue to fly lower on the radar than the big guns of the EPL.  A lower profile can, and often does, lead to better value at the betting counter.  So, in no particular order……….. It would be difficult to go against a team in the top four of my power rankings at home to the side who sits rock bottom of those very same rankings. Everton is a very strong well disciplined unit where each man knows his job and carries out assignments to the upmost of their ability. In contrast, despite a big home win against Aston Villa over the weekend where they scored four goals, I am not convinced of this Saints side.  They look prone to falling apart defensively and given the relentless nature of Everton’s style the game could get ugly. With Southampton’ open style always a hallmark of their games, over 3 in the goals market is quite appealing...

By James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) The greatest football rivalry in England explodes back onto our screens this Sunday when Liverpool hosts Manchester United at Anfield.  Of course you’ll need to set your alarm clock early though as this game kicks off 830am but serves as the perfect appetizer to all your NFL action. In recent years the home side between the traditional powers has dominated.  In fact the home side has not lost in the last six meetings and only once in the last nine.  At Anfield, the reds of Liverpool have been strong of late winning three of the last four, drawing the other game.  The home support roars their team on and Liverpool traditionally performs better against other top flight teams than in the games they’re expected to win comfortably. They often say in such meetings that current form book can be ripped up and thrown out of the window.  Liverpool supporters will be hoping that is the case Sunday as they enter this game with terrible recent EPL statistics.  Still without a win in their opening four games they have drawn just two, scoring three goals and conceding eight times in the process. Liverpool hover just above the EPL relegation zone in 17th place whilst Man United resides in 2nd place.  United are 3-0-1 scoring ten goals and conceding five goals although Sir Alex Ferguson’s men have already tasted defeat on Merseyside this season.  Their opening fixture was away at Liverpool’s city rivals Everton and United just could not find a way to break down the Everton back line.  United were heavy favourites for that game against Everton, under even money, and when I priced this game up I made United clear favourites but apparently the books don’t...