Everything you need to know for a busy betting weekend in the EPL Written by James Kempton Listen to his podcast here Newcastle United v Liverpool Newcastle +0.5 Goal 2.75 Overs are 11-2 in the last 13 EPL meetings of the sides and the trend has produced a 7-1 record in the last 8 at St James’ Park. However, this is a different Liverpool side now without that electric spark of Suarez up front that can blitz teams in a ten to fifteen minute spell. Under 2.75 goals appeals to me and so does the home side on the handicap line making them the side to be on here. Arsenal v Burnley Arsenal -1.75 Goal 3 Arsenal are 24-7-2 against sides placed in the bottom half of the table in their last 33 games at the Emirates with an impressive +52 goal differential. In other words, the Gunners tend to win these types of games and usually by at least two goals. Given recent form Arsenal will win by at least three goals unless they choose to step off the gas looking ahead to their Tuesday night Champions League obligations. Chelsea v QPR Chelsea -2 Goal 3 How many will Chelsea win by? I say that as QPR won at Stamford Bridge when the sides last met back in January 2013. Mourinho will ensure his side do not slip up in this fixture. QPR got a good win on Monday night which could see them come in to this game in a lighter but less desperate mood. Redknapp knows they can’t win this game and will look to avoid injuries to his key players. If you need to bet, Chelsea -2 is my lean but make sure you cover it with the 2-0 home...

Your weekly look at all things EPL from our resident expert James Kempton.  If you’re looking for more great betting info on other English soccer divisions click here. Listen to the EPL Podcast West Ham United v Manchester City Man City -1 and Goal line of 3 City are unbeaten in the last eight meetings of the sides including two wins and two draws at Upton Park. They have netted at least two goals in six of those eight meetings and it looks like goals could be in the cards here.  West Ham have looked sharp in front of goal whilst City have been uncharacteristically sloppy in defending their own goal mouth.  This is a tricky game to call on the match line but I definitely lean towards the overs in the goals market. Liverpool v Hull City Liverpool -1.25 and Goal line of 3 Liverpool were involved in a crazy game at QPR last time out as they edged them 3-2. The Tigers won this meeting 3-1 in Hull last season and travel to Merseyside full of optimism after last weeks 2-2 draw at Arsenal. Hull are definitely good at frustrating the opposition so I want to be with them on the match line and also lean towards unders on the goal line. Southampton v Stoke City Southampton -1 and Goal line of 2.5 The sides have meet four times in the EPL and all four have finished in scoring draws. Can Stoke snuff out the free scoring home side completely or at least keep them in check? The line is begging you to take the home team but with at least two goals going in during each previous meeting I will take a chance with an overs ticket instead. Sunderland v Arsenal...

All notes courtesy of James Kempton Looking for more information on lower division English Football? Click here Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Man City -1.25 and Goal Line of 3 City have conceded in all but two of their EPL games this season so Spurs should have hope they can find the net here. The last six meetings of the teams have all gone over 2.5 goals with only one of those resulting in a Push. City are a far better side than Spurs and I’d take them on the handicap line but will avoid the goals market. Arsenal v Hull City Arsenal -1.25 and Goal Line of 2.75 Arsenal have won five straight meetings of the sides but only one of the six EPL meetings since September 2008 has seen four or more goals.  With Arsenal once again ravaged with injuries I will settle for an unders ticket here as they look to grind out a solid but not spectacular victory. Burnley v West Ham United Pick Em Line and Goal Line of 2.25 Sometimes teams find it difficult to throw off past reputations and I sense West Ham are one such side. They play in a more open and attacking manner than in previous seasons under ‘Big Sam’. Over 2.5 goals is 5-2 in Hammers games and another one saw two goals so I will take the overs trend to continue in this one. It’s too early in the season to be blindlu opposing Burnley on these lines against non elite opposition but the time may not be far away! Crystal Palace v Chelsea Chelsea -1.25 and Goal Line of 2.75 Palace scored in both meetings of the sides last season as they won this meeting at Selhurst Park 1-0 thanks to...

Another busy weekend across the pond in the ranks of the EPL. We bring in our industry insider to offer his most valuable game nuggets for each fixture on the weekend slate. All analysis courtesy of @UkBettingPro Listen to the podcast here Hull City v Crystal Palace Hull -0.5 and Goal Line 2.25 Last season saw two 1-0 wins for Palace and the way this season’s results have gone a similar result could be on the cards. This match should follow those of past encounters in terms of being a low scoring affair so even at 2.25 on the goal line I will go with the under. Leicester City v Burnley Leicester -0.5 and Goal Line 2.5 Both of these sides were promoted from The Championship during the summer. They have met regularly over the last few seasons and Burnley doesn’t win this fixture, losing to Leicester in 5 of the last 7. However -0.5 line is just a bit too tight for me to support Leicester because I don’t believe they’re suddenly THAT much better than Sean Dyche’s men I will just take a little bit of the under 2.5 goals which cashed in both meetings last season. Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion Liverpool -1.5 and Goal Line of 3 West Brom have won two of their last three trips to Anfield but last season they were blasted 4-1 at Anfield. The Baggies have scored in each of the last five EPL meetings between the two teams. Until this Liverpool team proves to me that post Suarez they can consistently beat sides by at least two clear goals, I will either fade them or pass on the game markets. I like the under on the goal line of three as none of Liverpool’s...

Futbol Friday is back! Our soccer insider is here to share his insight for every fixture on this weekend’s EPL slate.  Make sure to follow James Kempton on twitter and listen to his podcast here. Liverpool v Everton Liverpool -0.5 Goals 3 Everton has not won a derby game at Anfield since the turn of the millennium and with a defense that looks like a sieve, it is a big ask for them to win this game. Couple that with the fact the Toffees have only scored three goals in their last eight EPL trips across Stanley Park and you see how unlikely such a win is.  However, all is not rosey in Liverpool’s garden after that poor showing on the road last time out against West Ham. Having said that give me the home side to have more defensive discipline than their visitors and take this game on the -0.5 line. Chelsea v Aston Villa Chelsea -1.75 Goals 3 Chelsea have scored twenty one goals in their last five home EPL meetings with Villa. The visitors have managed to score eight in reply though so this could be a high scoring encounter at Stamford Bridge. In fact Villa have found the back of the net in six of their last seven meetings with Chelsea and not many EPL sides can say that. Give me the overs here as I sense Villa will score again but Chelsea will prevail in the end. Crystal Palace v Leicester Pick Em Line Goals 2.25 Both teams had surprise wins last time out as they out scored two EPL giants in shoot outs. Palace won 3-2 away to Everton whilst Leicester came from 3-1 back to humiliate Manchester United 5-3. After such confidence boosting and high scoring wins...

Our weekly look at the EPL slate from the one and only James Kempton Listen to his weekly podcast here QPR v Stoke City Pick Em and Goal line of 2 These are the games that QPR have to win if they are to retain their EPL status come the end of the season. Stoke are so resilient though and coming off the back of a disappointing home defeat at the hands of Leicester I see a better showing from them here. Factor in Mark Hughes returning to Loftus Road and I see a motivated away side avoiding defeat. Four meetings of the sides in the EPL since November 2011 and only one of those cashed an overs ticket on a goal line set at 2. Aston Villa v Arsenal Arsenal -0.75 and Goal line of 2.5 Villa have made such a bright and promising start to the season. This will be a real test for them as the confidence gained from the fantastic points haul obtained so far in the campaign may allow them to play looser than they ordinarily would. Can they play in the same conservative manner that they would have done against a Gunners side of they hadn’t started the season so brightly? Considering they haven’t won any of the last 15 EPL match ups at Villa Park they might as well have a go. If they do though it could spell carnage for what has been up until now a tight home backline. Give me the over 2.5 goals and the away side in this game. Burnley v Sunderland Pick Em and Goal line of 2 Another game where the home team will have circled it on the schedule as a must win game. Their goalless draw at Crystal...

It will be very interesting to see how the new format for Qualification games affect players this weekend.  The splitting up to different days rather than traditional Tuesday/Wednesday games means some players will return to their clubs earlier than others. England played Monday so by Tuesday lunchtime they were able to be back at home resting, actively assessed by their club sides.  Wales, for example using Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey, played Tuesday night. This gives the management at clubs difficult issues in terms of planning and strategy in such a fragmented working week.   Analysis courtesy of James Kempton   Listen to his podcast here   Arsenal v Man City Man City -0.25 and 2.75 goals   The last seven meetings of the sides at the Emirates have gone under 2.5 goals so with this line set at 2.75 goals you have to favour the under line. I see City setting up defensively and looking to hit Arsenal on the counter attack when their powerful midfield unit muscle Arsenal off the ball. This is screaming under 2.75 goals to me as it may be one goal either way that seals it.   Chelsea v Swansea Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals   The top two, who’d have thought that, meet at Stamford Bridge and the Blues have only covered this line in two of the sides’ six meetings.  Both were at Stamford Bridge though where Chelsea have outscored Swansea 7-1 in the three games in the capital. Swansea have never scored more than once in an EPL game against Chelsea but Jose Mourinho’s team has looked vulnerable this season defensively whilst Swansea have looked lively in attack. Diego Costa is struggling with a hamstring injury and is a game time decision.  Costa has added an extra...

As we head into Week 3 of the EPL sides are beginning to take form.  It’s still too early to push the panic button on Manchester United (we think) while it’s premature to anoint Man City back to back champions. Diego Costa went down with a nasty hamstring injury and somehow Aston Villa has 4 points this season with only 1 shot on target.  Bring on the games and the analysis of our soccer guru James Kempton. Burnley v Manchester United United have to win…Don’t they? Who knows though after their midweek humiliation at Milton Keynes in the Capital Cup. Even I, one of LVG’s biggest supporters, cannot back them in this spot.  United don’t want to put on a show here and look to win by two or three goals, they just need a win! With the attacking threat on display for United I struggle to believe they will not find the net, can they keep a clean sheet here? Maybe but I lean towards the over 2.5 goals in a match we’re probably best to swerve. Manchester City v Stoke City have won the last six meetings of the sides at the Etihad…all to nil. Four of those fixtures were by a three goal margin which is what is obviously required here to cash your ticket. It’s a big number to give up on the heels of that dominating win over Liverpool and ahead of their match up with Arsenal (sandwich anyone?). The win is all that Pelligrini cares about but Stoke have been so poor this season I cannot trust them to keep it tight. Newcastle United v Crystal Palace Newcastle did the double over Palace last season and nothing we’ve seen so far this season makes me think they won’t...

There are no promises in sports gambling however we’re going to try and make one here for the season: ever Friday on this site we’ll have quick game capsules breaking down the entire slate in the EPL courtesy of James Kempton. Questions, concerns, or philosophies on handicapping the league are worth firing his way as the beautiful game gains a bigger foothold in our domestic sports landscape. Click here for all your official matchday info Aston Villa v Newcastle United Villa gained a fantastic win at Stoke last weekend and did so while keeping a clean sheet, of huge importance to the team’s overall confidence. Newcastle showed some creative spark in their season opener at home to Man City but wasn’t able to tally against the defending champions. It is a tough job though to break down the Champions back line and the Geordies should find the defense of Villa easier to unlock.  With Villa looking like a side more equipped to play away from home, I’m leaning to Newcastle here. Chelsea v Leicester City The Blues of west London should make it two wins from two when they host newly promoted Leicester this weekend. Will they cover the prohibitive handicap line?  That remains the much bigger question being listed as 2 goal favorites in some locales. The fighting spirit of Leicester was displayed on opening day as they drew two apiece at home to Everton. However, Chelsea are a different attacking threat to that of the men from Goodison so I take Chelsea to win and cover here. Jose Mourinho will be wanting his men to put a show on in their league home opener. Interested in the lower levels of English soccer? Click here for stat packs to help your handicapping Crystal...

Tomorrow mark’s the start of another marathon campaign in the English Premier League.  For those that caught World Cup fever this past summer, the EPL is the single best European domestic league to whet that soccer appetite on a weekly basis.  With wall to wall TV coverage across the NBC family, it really becomes fan friendly to watch even the smallest clubs every time they take to the pitch.  While the top of the league won’t boast as much talent as Real Madrid or Barcelona (Sorry Man City, Man United, Chelsea, and Arsenal), the competitive balance allows for great wagering opportunities if you show patience and discipline.  Internet giant Pinnacle Sports supplied a great series of articles to help bettors of all ability levels attempt to gain a soccer edge.  We’ve gone through and put them all in one place as a reference tool to keep handy during the 9 month regular season.  Remember if this is your first journey through the Premiership grind, keep your wager size small using your first time around the league as a learning experience.  This is one of the league’s that sees the heaviest betting volume around the world and we’re here to help as much as we can every step of the way. How to use Poisson Distribution to accurately predict soccer winners Using Goal Differential to predict the EPL team points: Limitations in predictive models for soccer betting: A list of Twitter accounts all soccer bettors should be aware of: Calculating 2-way odds from 3-way odds: How much will Liverpool miss Luis Suarez? How to use Home Field Advantage in EPL betting: How to use Total Shots Ration (advance metric) in modelling match odds: Will EPL see a World Cup hangover effect? How does possession affect...

If you weren’t already drawn in by the magic and the excitement of the game you Americans call soccer then I am sure the recent World Cup has piqued your interest. The World Cup should be just the appetizer for the main course that the EPL serves up this winter.  Set your alarm clocks early each Saturday and prepare for the hustle and bustle of soccer action to be your perfect college football appetizer.  However I’m not here to sell you on the beautiful game.  The bigger question is there any value to be had in holding a futures ticket for nine months in the hope you will cash?  When assessing this you have to remember that the EPL and other major soccer leagues around Europe do not replicate American sport.  There is no attempt towards parity between teams and it’s very difficult to make a case for every team in the table to lift a trophy.  With that in mind you’d expect me to sit here and suggest that a futures ticket in a limited market becomes somewhat worthless but that isn’t the case especially if you believe that this seasons EPL will be a very tight affair coming down to the wire. Between November and May of last seasons EPL campaign there was no fewer than sixteen lead changes at the top of the table.  Four different sides occupied the top spot and during that spell creating plenty of chances to find value on the sides not occupying the top spot   By James Kempton (Click here to follow him on twitter)   So who are the most likely contenders this season? I have narrowed it down to the two clubs from Manchester and Chelsea. Before we discuss that trio I have to...

The month long ride in Brazil will come to an end today and it wont be without fanfare. Argentina and Germany will lock horns for the 3rd time in an international final.  Will defense prevail Sunday or will the German blitzkrieg continue to find the form that destroyed the Brazilians earlier this week?  Questions are good, winners are better. It’s time to Let It Ride with Jay Onrait and...