Hanging an aggressive price in the NFL has consequences I’m asked all the time by aspiring handicappers and sports radio personalities why my true number on a game varies with what’s available on the actual betting boards.  The truth is that all bookmaker’s regularly find themselves in a prisoner’s dilemma as it pertains to NFL football.  You can hang a number and remain steadfast that it’s the right price but as the one sided action begins to pile up you enter dangerous territory. Let’s take a look at the Saints vs 49ers game today to better illustrate my point: At most betting shops the Saints opened as 3 pt favorites on Saturday night.  By Sunday the game went to 3.5  because the steady flow of public and sharp money drove the price through a field goal.  I have my own opinion on every game and for this contest believe the true line should be closer to Saints -1.5.  However, a bookmaker’s opinion is only worth one limit bet from the sharpest customers if the rest of the market offers a price on the key number rather than a half point below it.  The follow-up question is then why as a good bookmaker are you inclined to mirror the market around key numbers rather than lock up all of the business by trusting your reads? If I were to make the game 2.5 while everyone else decides to use a 3 even if I believe the 49ers are the going to be the sharp side, every bettor in the free world with a bankroll comes into my establishment and lays the favorite -2.5 with limited repercussions.  Why do I say limited when after all this is gambling?  The reason is two fold: educated  gamblers laying...

Detroit @ New Orleans Line: New Orleans -10.5, O/U 59.5 Is this finally the week the Saints ATS dominance in the dome comes to an end?   Has there been a hotter team entering the postseason than the New Orleans Saints?  Drew Brees closed his historic season in style with 7 straight games of 300+ passing yards leading his team to a blistering 8-0 ATS mark in the Superdome this year.  More impressive than the team’s wallet fattening home record was their 11-3 ATS record when listed as a favorite meaning bookmakers like myself never ratcheted the spread high enough to slow down the onslaught of Saints money.  When these teams met for Sunday night football on December 4, the Lions outgained the high octane Saints 466 to 438 but were done in by 11 penalties totaling 107 yards.  The Lions possess firepower capable of covering Saturday night if they don’t self destruct under the immense pressure of playing in the NFL’s most hostile environment.  As far as the total is concerned, 59 is going to be among the highest you’ll ever see in a playoff game but for good reason.  Keep in mind with a number this high any drought of 4-5 minutes can put the total on life support since an avg of 14 pts a quarter still means you’ll come up short.  Value doesn’t present itself often in playoff games and using a season’s worth of data to derive the correct spread and total for this game makes me believe these are great lines for 2 way action.  If anything value may be on the side of the Lions but it takes a steel stomach to step in front of the Saints freight train in their own building.   Atlanta @...

Is it Tebow time again? Value may finally exist betting the free falling Broncos Value comes in different forms when you handicap sports.  Bettors and bookmakers attack post season point spreads with different mindsets and agendas especially when you consider the large swell of public money entering the market during the playoffs. Pittsburgh @ Denver Line: Pittsburgh -7.5, O/U 35 I’m beginning to wonder if the Steelers actually have anyone on their 55 man roster that’s healthy right now.  Rashard Mendenhall is out for the year with a torn acl and Ryan Clarke is expected to miss with complications arising from his blood condition in the Rocky mountain air.  Say what you want about the toughness displayed by Big Ben every week but he hasn’t been the same QB since suffering his high ankle sprain and one of the league’s most dynamic passing offenses for much of the year has been grounded recently.  The argument that Pittsburgh shelved some of its playbook recently is plausible however the bottom line is the team has only scored 57 pts in their last four games for an avg of 14.25 PPG which includes a 27 pt explosion vs defensive juggernaut St Louis.  Pittsburgh has been installed as a road favorite of 7 or more 3 times this season and they’re 0-3 ATS in those games.  Denver enters the playoffs as losers of 3 straight, failing to cover the number in each of their last 4 contests.  Safe to say the honeymoon stage is officially over for Tim Tebow but as the limelight begins to fade point spread value becomes real.  Keep in mind the Steelers were -7 yesterday at Cleveland and now lay -7.5 against Denver despite their own offensive woes.  I won’t sugarcoat the fact the...