We all love a bad beat story and this year in the NFL offered it’s fair share. Oddly enough the toughest pills to swallow came on totals and of course under bettors felt the wrath of the new age NFL.  Grab an adult beverage sit back and enjoy the melodrama set to some of your favorite tunes....

We haven’t crowned a champion for this season but that doesn’t mean we can’t all be looking ahead to next year.  The guys at LVH Superbook have unveiled their 2015 odds to win the Superbowl for your viewing pleasure.  There’s no surprise this year’s title game combatants are listed as the early favorites. SUPER BOWL XLIX @ UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM– GLENDALE, AZ SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015 ODDS TO WIN SEAHAWKS 6 BRONCOS 6 49ERS 7 PATRIOTS 10 PACKERS 15 SAINTS 15 FALCONS 20 BENGALS 20 PANTHERS 20 COLTS 25 CHIEFS 25 EAGLES 25 BEARS 25 CARDINALS 25 COWBOYS 30 GIANTS 30 REDSKINS 30 LIONS 30 RAMS 30 STEELERS 30 RAVENS 30 TEXANS 30 CHARGERS 30 DOLPHINS 40 BUCS 40 TITANS 50 JETS 60 BILLS 60 VIKINGS 60 BROWNS 60 JAGUARS 100 RAIDERS...

After a strong opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs let’s see if we can keep the momentum going in the Divisional round. I’ll openly admit laying heavy lumber not in my DNA but have a feeling this is the weekend to do it. Bucking the sharp money that’s come in on SD and going a bit off the radar with a derivative bet in New England vs Indianapolis.  Don’t judge the shirt collar, I take no responsibility for the fashion fopah....

The value of perfect information to a sports bettor should never be understated. We saw bettors taking the points last night with the Eagles last night continuing to lay the price up to -2.5, even 3 in some spots before Romo’s herniated disc was made public. As it often does, mis-information in the sports betting world predominates even when delivered through respected channels.  Tony Romo was officially downgraded to “expected to miss” for this weekend’s pivotal game against Philadelphia.  Of course upon this announcement, every sportsbook operator pulled the price of Eagles -2.5/-3 (depending on the shop) knowing an adjustment was required based on the QB’s absence.  Lost in the shuffle is that you could have faded the Cowboys yesterday at the top of the market when Dallas was listed as a favorite at a handful of books. On the overnight a prominent offshore book made Philly -2.5 after seeing money continue to flow in on the Eagles at the short opening number given their dominance against the Bears. When lines move all the time, why is this important you ask? Well in a situation like this, someone HAD TO KNOW Romo’s health. In age of real time information keeping news of this magnitude completely under wraps is damn near impossible. I’m not saying a lot of people knew he’d need surgery but rest assured there was someone outside of Tony Romo’s inner circle who understood there was more than just a slight possibility he would be on the shelf this weekend. I know people have argued that according to the line move Romo is only worth 4 to 4.5 pts given the shift in the market once the injury was announced.  However the actual move is closer to 7 (or more) when you...

As we get closer to the end of the regular season our focus (if it hasn’t already) shifts towards the futures market.  Here’s the up to the minute numbers from the LVH ODDS TO WIN 2014 SUPER BOWL XLVIII @ METLIFE STADIUM — EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2014 SUPER BOWL XLVIII GAME LINE NFC -2.5 AFC                             TOTAL  49.5 SUPER BOWL PATRIOTS 8 49ERS 8 BRONCOS 5-2 PACKERS 30 SEAHAWKS 9-5 STEELERS 300 SAINTS 16 RAVENS 75 BEARS 40 BENGALS 12 COWBOYS 50 CHARGERS 75 COLTS 30 PANTHERS 8 EAGLES 30 DOLPHINS 60 CHIEFS 30 CARDINALS 60 2014 NFC CONFERENCE 49ERS 4 PACKERS 15 SEAHAWKS 4-5 SAINTS 8 BEARS 20 COWBOYS 25 PANTHERS 4 EAGLES 15 CARDINALS 30 2014 AFC CONFERENCE PATRIOTS 3 BRONCOS 1-2 STEELERS 150 RAVENS 35 BENGALS 11-2 CHARGERS 35 COLTS 13 DOLPHINS 25 CHIEFS...

It’s everyone’s favorite segment (well maybe just my Mom and Dad’s so my degeneracy doesn’t go to waste) but you should watch anyways. Charissa Thompson and I go into a few of the weekend’s biggest games in the NFL but more importantly we pick the tilts that offer the most betting value.  Enjoy. Have feedback on what you’d like to see in the segment? Email me...

ODDS TO WIN 2014 SUPER BOWL XLVIII @ METLIFE STADIUM — EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2014 SUPER BOWL XLVIII GAME LINE NFC -2.5 AFC                             TOTAL  49.5 SUPER BOWL PATRIOTS 12 49ERS 8 BRONCOS 5-2 PACKERS 25 SEAHAWKS 3-2 TEXANS xxxx FALCONS xxxx STEELERS 1000 SAINTS 12 RAVENS 25 GIANTS xxxx REDSKINS xxxx BEARS 40 BENGALS 15 COWBOYS 60 CHARGERS 200 LIONS 75 VIKINGS xxxx COLTS 30 PANTHERS 12 JETS xxxx EAGLES 40 DOLPHINS 50 RAMS xxxx BUCS xxxx BROWNS xxxx CHIEFS 20 TITANS xxxx BILLS xxxx CARDINALS 100 RAIDERS xxxx JAGUARS xxxx 2014 NFC CONFERENCE 49ERS 4 PACKERS 13 SEAHAWKS 5-8 FALCONS xxxx SAINTS 6 GIANTS xxxx REDSKINS xxxx BEARS 20 COWBOYS 30 LIONS 37 VIKINGS xxxx PANTHERS 6 EAGLES 20 RAMS xxxx BUCS xxxx CARDINALS 50 2014 AFC CONFERENCE PATRIOTS 9-2 BRONCOS 1-2 TEXANS xxxx STEELERS 500 RAVENS 12 BENGALS 6 CHARGERS 90 COLTS 13 JETS xxxx DOLPHINS 23 BROWNS xxxx CHIEFS 8 TITANS xxxx BILLS xxxx RAIDERS xxxx JAGUARS...

Each week during the regular season the LVH puts out their look-ahead lines one week in advance. How much can one result impact the point spread the following week (not accounting for injuries)? Think you’ll be surprised by some of the market adjustments from just last weekend Game Look Ahead Current SD @ DEN DEN -11 DEN -10 WAS @ ATL ATL -2.5 (-120) ATL -6.5 SF @ TB SF -6 SF -5 AZ @ TEN AZ -1.5 AZ -2.5 NO @ STL NO -4.5 NO -6.5 SEA @ NYG SEA -5.5 SEA -7 CHI @ CLE NL CHI -1 HOU @ IND IND -6.5 IND -5.5 BUF @ JAX BUF -2.5 BUF -2 NE @ MIA NE -4 NE PK PHI @ MIN PHI -3 PHI -4.5 NYJ @ CAR CAR -10 CAR -11 KC @ OAK KC -3 (-120) KC -4.5 GB @ DAL NL NL CIN @ PIT CIN -1 CIN -2 BAL @ DET DET -4 DET...

ODDS TO WIN 2014 SUPER BOWL (Prices courtesy of LVH) XLVIII @ METLIFE STADIUM — EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2014   SUPER BOWL XLVIII GAME LINE NFC AFC -1.5                          TOTAL  51 SUPER BOWL PATRIOTS 8 49ERS 9-2 BRONCOS 5-2 PACKERS 10 SEAHAWKS 9-2 TEXANS 300 FALCONS 500 STEELERS 500 SAINTS 7 RAVENS 300 GIANTS 100 REDSKINS 100 BEARS 100 BENGALS 16 COWBOYS 30 CHARGERS 200 LIONS 50 VIKINGS 9999 COLTS 12 PANTHERS 30 JETS 100 EAGLES 100 DOLPHINS 100 RAMS 2000 BUCS xxxx BROWNS 300 CHIEFS 10 TITANS 100 BILLS 2000 CARDINALS 300 RAIDERS 2000 JAGUARS xxxx 2014 NFC CONFERENCE 49ERS 2 PACKERS 9-2 SEAHAWKS 2 FALCONS 500 SAINTS 3 GIANTS 50 REDSKINS 50 BEARS 50 COWBOYS 15 LIONS 25 VIKINGS 5000 PANTHERS 15 EAGLES 50 RAMS 1000 BUCS xxxx CARDINALS 150 2014 AFC CONFERENCE   PATRIOTS 7-2 BRONCOS 4-5 TEXANS 150 STEELERS 250 RAVENS 150 BENGALS 7 CHARGERS 100 COLTS 11-2 JETS 50 DOLPHINS 50 BROWNS 150 CHIEFS 4 TITANS 50 BILLS 1000 RAIDERS 1000 JAGUARS...

This first month of NFL action has provided a good deal of information – affirming many team evaluations while also causing the perception of others to change.  But to what extent can we rely on a four-game sample to project going forward?  I wish I could give a quantifiable answer to that question but I’m not that smart, yet.  What I can tell you is that the process that determined the outcomes of weeks 1-4 was subject to a good deal of randomness.  In other words, “luck” – both good and bad –has made the final score an imperfect measure of a team’s true talent level.  Deciphering which teams are experiencing these extreme levels of positive or negative variation can go a long way in gaining an edge over the betting market. Written by Justin Zovas Below are two key statistics that highlight teams that are experiencing the greatest degrees of good and bad fortune in the turnover department – an aspect of football that has a large influence on games but also has strong mean-regressing characteristics.   Fumble Recovery Percentage Rank Team Recovery % 1 Tennessee 88.89% 2 Arizona 72.73% 3 Kansas City 72.73% 30 San Francisco 22.22% 31 San Diego 22.22% 32 Pittsburgh 18.18% Turnover Margin Rank Team Margin 1 Tennessee 9 2 Kansas City 9 3 Seattle 7 30 NY Giants -9 31 NY Jets -10 32 Pittsburgh -11   Dating back to 1989, the team that wins the turnover battle is an impressive 3880-1021-6 (.792) ATS.  While the market valuations of these teams may be affected by their recent good or bad turnover luck, we should project these teams to have league-average (turnover margin of 0 and fumble recovery rate of 50%) going forward. For example, it is highly unlikely...

Whether it be setting a line or betting against the spread, week 1 poses a challenge to anyone trying to forecast the outcomes of NFL action. Team evaluations are grounded in last season’s performances, offseason changes, and trivial preseason competition; variables that are misleading when trying to predict the future. But with every challenge comes an opportunity. Here is a trend dating back to 2002 that I believe highlights a market inefficiency in week 1 NFL point spreads:  Non-playoff teams facing playoff teams from the previous season are a combined 46-29-1 (.613) ATS. In other words, this trend suggests that heading into a new season playoff teams from the previous year tend to be overvalued and non-playoff teams tend to be undervalued – especially when pitted against one another in week 1. Written by Justin Zovas There are seven week 1 games where a 2012 playoff team is facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season.   With the market’s tendency to misprice these games in mind, here are some brief thoughts on each of the contests. “Fairly Valued” Bears (-3) vs. Bengals: With the home team giving a field goal, I don’t view this matchup as a situation where the non-playoff team (Bears) is undervalued and/or the playoff team (Bengals) are overvalued.  I think this line is fair. Lions (-5) vs. Vikings: This line opened with the Lions favored by 2.5 points and has been bet all the way up to 5 (I even see some 6’s popping up).  General consensus is very bullish on the Lions headed into 2013 and views the Vikings as a team destined for a bit of regression this season.  At the current price, I believe most—if not all—of value that was to be had on the...

Win totals move, that’s what they do.  Here is a quick snapshot at the most up to date list of the LVH’s regular season win totals for the NFL compared to what they opened at back in the middle of May. Team Open Current 19-May 19-Aug Cardinals 5.5 U -150 5.5 O-140 Falcons 10 U -130 10 U -135 Ravens 8.5 O -140 8.5 O -110 Bills 6.5 U -135 6.5 U -150 Panthers 7 O -110 7.5 O -160 Bears 8.5 O -120 8.5 O -155 Bengals 8.5 U -130 8.5 O-155 Browns 6 O -130 6.5 O -140 Cowboys 8.5 U -155 8.5 U -115 Broncos 11.5 U -130 11.5 O -110 Lions 7.5 O -110 7.5 O -175 Packers 10 O -120 10 O -160 Texans 10 O -130 10 O -120 Colts 8.5 U -120 8.5 O -110 Jaguars 5 O -130 5 O -110 Chiefs 7 O -135 7 O -200 Dolphins 7.5 O -130 7.5 O -160 Vikings 7.5 O -110 7 U -150 Patriots 11.5 U -135 11 U -140 Saints 9 O -110 9 O -180 Giants 9 U -120 9 U -150 Jets 6.5 O -110 6.5 U -165 Raiders 5.5 U -130 5.5 U -165 Eagles 7 O -110 7.5 U -120 Steelers 9 O -120 9 O -150 Chargers 7.5 U -135 7.5 U -130 49ers 11.5 U -130 11.5 U -200 Seahawks 10.5 O -110 10.5 O -120 Rams 7.5 U -140 7.5 O -120 Bucs 7.5 O -140 7.5 O -135 Titans 6.5 O -110 6.5 O -120 Redskins 8 O -110 8 O...