I have no idea where the time goes when it comes to the fall and breaking down NFL cards each week.  I have to imagine most of you feel the same way so that’s why Payneinsider and I are here to break it all down.  In addition to a quick discussion of the Thursday night game, we ran a quick no huddle through the weekend’s games along with a brief discussion on evaluating injuries.  Give it a listen and stay tuned, it’s coming to an itunes store near you very...

In our quest to share the best sports betting information with you on a daily basis, here’s an early look at the opening lines for Week 3 of the NFL.  Comparing what lines would be before Week 2 ever happens to what prices will look like after this weekend’s games are completed offers a unique tool in identifying value.  Early in the year oddsmakers can struggle with evaluating teams giving the bettor an opportunity to capitalize…the key is striking while the iron’s hot.  Tough break for KC fans who will see their squad a decisive underdog for the 2nd straight week, potentially staring 0-3 right in the face. NFL WEEK 3 (All Lines courtesy of the Westgate Hotel) THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2014  BUCS FALCONS -5.5 SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2014 CHARGERS -2.5 BILLS COWBOYS -1 RAMS REDSKINS EAGLES -7 TEXANS GIANTS -3 EVEN VIKINGS SAINTS -8.5 TITANS BENGALS -6.5 RAVENS BROWNS PK PACKERS -1 LIONS COLTS -6.5 JAGUARS RAIDERS PATRIOTS -12 49ERS -1.5 CARDINALS BRONCOS SEAHAWKS -4.5 CHIEFS DOLPHINS -6.5 STEELERS PANTHERS -3 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2014 BEARS JETS...

Looking back to help you look forward resonates with any seasoned handicapper.  Payneinsider and I shared some of our observations through the first 14 games of the NFL season.  We also touched on home field advantage briefly by disproving the notion that there should be a standard base line applied to every game.  Of course we’d be remiss if we didn’t include some thoughts on tonight’s tandem of MNF games as well.  Enjoy...

So we decided to try something new for the fall…new is good right?  Payneinsider  and I will be embarking on a season long quest to share some of the industry’s best information as it pertains to pro football. Everything from injuries, to line move projections, and the limited social life of a pro gambler during the fall…you name it we’ll cover it in our 2 part weekly series on Monday’s and Thursday’s. We did realize while recording the pod there was an important element missing: an appropriate name.  Our goal is to lean on you guys, the loyal listeners to offer up some suggestions that sound better than “The NFL Pod” because well, we’re not “the” Ohio State.  Also feel free to share concepts you’d like us to touch on each week; we hear ourselves talk enough that we want to make this entirely about the listeners.  Hope you enjoy the content, know we’re going to have a lot of fun bringing it to you all fall long. Also I promise this wasn’t recorded on my CB radio…next week the sound quality will improve.  Think of this like the training wheels in the preaseason.  ...

Recency bias is very real when it comes to handicapping the NFL.  Books are forced to over react each week to what the public saw last.  Betting trends end up reflecting current form more than an entire body of work or a team’s true power number.  Each week the Westgate Superbook (formerly LVH) puts out lines for the next week’s entire set of games.  Comparing the numbers before games are played to true opens on Sunday afternoon offers a great opportunity to identify line value. We’ll do our best to post numbers each week, allowing you the chance to see the oddsmaker’s progression. NFL WEEK 2 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2014 STEELERS RAVENS -3 SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2014 LIONS PANTHERS -2.5 DOLPHINS BILLS -1 JAGUARS REDSKINS -6.5 COWBOYS TITANS -2.5 CARDINALS GIANTS -2.5 PATRIOTS -6 VIKINGS SAINTS -6 BROWNS FALCONS BENGALS -5 RAMS BUCS -2.5 SEAHAWKS -3.5 CHARGERS TEXANS -2.5 RAIDERS JETS PACKERS -8.5 CHIEFS BRONCOS -10.5 BEARS 49ERS -6.5 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 EAGLES COLTS...

Bovada released a full list of yes/no playoff odds for all 32 NFL teams earlier today.  We know the Not For Long league is one of parity where sure fire success can turn to heartbreak in just one snap.  Only 8 teams on the betting board are actually listed as favorites to get to the postseason highlighted by last year’s AFC championship game combatants the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots at 1-5.  The biggest longshot on the board?  None other than the Gus Bradley led Jacksonville Jaguars at 8-1 although I’d contend their prospects for making the postseason are better than those of the dysfunctional Raiders. Playoff Odds (in order of most likely to least likely to make the playoffs) All prices courtesy of Bovada Will the Denver Broncos make the playoffs?    Yes                  -500     (1/5) No                    +350     (7?2)   Will the New England Patriots make the playoffs? Yes                  -500     (1/5) No                    +350     (7/2)   Will the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs?  Yes                  -325     (4/13) No                    +250     (5/2)   Will the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs?            Yes                  -220     (5/11) No                    +180     (9/5)   Will the San Francisco 49ers make the playoffs? Yes                  -220     (5/11) No                    +180     (9/5)   Will the Indianapolis Colts make the playoffs? Yes                  -220     (5/11) No                    +180     (9/5)   Will the New Orleans Saints make the playoffs?           Yes                  -200     (1/2) No                    +160     (8/5)   Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the playoffs?          Yes                  -150     (2/3) No                    +120     (6/5)   Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the playoffs?            Yes                  +110     (11/10) No                    -140     (5/7)   Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the playoffs? Yes                  +110     (11/10) No                    -140     (5/7)   Will the Baltimore Ravens make the playoffs?  Yes                  +150     (3/2) No                    -180     (5/9)   Will the Chicago Bears make the playoffs? Yes                  +150     (3/2)...

Gambling is about identifying investment opportunities. Historically football takes center stage during the middle of sweltering desert summers when individual spreads, win totals, and other unique prop offerings are made available. That’s no longer the case, playing the waiting game as this past weekend marked a major gambling “holiday” when the LVH unveiled their full slate of regular season win totals while another large Vegas operator, Cantor Gaming, released point spreads for every NFL game from Week 2 through Week 16. Roger Goodell can ignore gambling all he wants including the impact pointspreads have on the league’s overall popularity but you won’t ever hear a sportsbook operator downplay the value of football to the health of his business. The full list of openers as they appeared on the betting board yesterday is included below. There’s no surprise that the reigning conference champions, Broncos and Seahawks, are the pace setters with win totals at 11. San Francisco, New England, and Green Bay are the other trio of franchises to have a win total listed in double digits. CARDINALS      7.5    OVER -120   UNDER EVEN FALCONS          8.0    OVER -130   UNDER +110 RAVENS            8.5    OVER -120   UNDER EVEN BILLS                 6.5    OVER -130   UNDER +110 PANTHERS      8.0    OVER -130   UNDER +110 BEARS              8.0    OVER -140   UNDER +120 BENGALS        9.0    OVER -135   UNDER +115 BROWNS         6.5    OVER -150   UNDER +130 COWBOYS       8.0    OVER -110   UNDER -110 BRONCOS       11.0    OVER -140   UNDER +120 LIONS              8.0    OVER -150   UNDER +130 PACKERS        10.0    OVER -145   UNDER +125 TEXANS           7.5    OVER -145   UNDER +125 COLTS              9.5    OVER +130   UNDER -150 JAGUARS       4.5    OVER -150   UNDER +130 CHIEFS           8.0    OVER -120   UNDER EVEN DOLPHINS    8.0    OVER +110   UNDER -130 VIKINGS        6.0    OVER +105   UNDER -125 PATRIOTS     10.5    OVER -135   UNDER +115 SAINTS           9.5    OVER -150  ...

The NFL draft is behind us and fans/bettors/franchises alike are looking towards the season.  Futures have been updated (however slightly) with the Week 1 point spread markets stabilizing as well.  Along with those 2 betting markets, divisional odds are also available for your wagering needs. **All prices courtesy of the LVH Superbook SUPER BOWL SEAHAWKS 4 BRONCOS 5 49ERS 6 PATRIOTS 8 PACKERS 12 SAINTS 20 FALCONS 40 BENGALS 20 PANTHERS 30 COLTS 20 CHIEFS 40 EAGLES 25 BEARS 30 CARDINALS 50 COWBOYS 30 GIANTS 40 REDSKINS 40 LIONS 40 RAMS 60 STEELERS 25 RAVENS 25 TEXANS 40 CHARGERS 40 DOLPHINS 50 BUCS 75 TITANS 60 JETS 60 BILLS 60 VIKINGS 100 BROWNS 60 JAGUARS 200 RAIDERS 200 NFC  CONFERENCE SEAHAWKS 2 49ERS 3 PACKERS 6 SAINTS 10 FALCONS 20 PANTHERS 15 EAGLES 12 BEARS 15 CARDINALS 25 COWBOYS 15 GIANTS 20 REDSKINS 20 LIONS 20 RAMS 30 BUCS 38 VIKINGS 50 AFC  CONFERENCE BRONCOS 7-4 PATRIOTS 3 BENGALS 8 COLTS 8 CHIEFS 18 STEELERS 11 RAVENS 11 TEXANS 18 CHARGERS 18 DOLPHINS 23 TITANS 25 JETS 25 BILLS 25 BROWNS 25 JAGUARS 90 RAIDERS 90 NFC EAST DIVISION EAGLES 8-5 COWBOYS 9-4 GIANTS 9-4 REDSKINS 9-2 NFC NORTH DIVISION PACKERS 5-8 BEARS 7-2 LIONS 3 VIKINGS 18 NFC SOUTH DIVISION SAINTS 5-4 PANTHERS 5-2 FALCONS 3 BUCS 5 NFC WEST DIVISION SEAHAWKS 10-11 49ERS 6-5 CARDINALS 10 RAMS 12 AFC EAST DIVISION PATRIOTS 4-13 DOLPHINS 9-2 JETS 8 BILLS 10 AFC NORTH DIVISION BENGALS 8-5 RAVENS 9-4 STEELERS 9-4 BROWNS 6 AFC SOUTH DIVISION COLTS 4-5 TEXANS 13-5 TITANS 13-5 JAGUARS 30 AFC WEST DIVISION BRONCOS 2-7 CHIEFS 5 CHARGERS 5 RAIDERS 30...

As draft day approaches, so do your betting options when it comes to the offshore world.  Unfortunately betting on the draft is still against the gaming control board rules here in the state of Nevada…hopefully not for much longer.  The interesting part about this year’s crop of draft props is there seems to be more uncertainty than ever before about not only the 2nd half of the first round but every single selection, including #1 overall.  For those that think they have a better grasp on the way it will all unfold here’s a collection of offerings from both Bovada and Sportsbook.ag 2014 NFL Draft – Will Jadeveon Clowney de drafted 1st overall? Yes -400 (1/4) No +250 (5/2) 2014 NFL Draft – How many Offensive Players will be drafted in the 1st Round? Over/Under 15.5 2014 NFL Draft – How many Defensive Players will be drafted in the 1st Round? Over/Under 16.5 2014 NFL Draft – How many QB’s will be drafted in the 1st round? Over/Under 3  2014 NFL Draft – How many RB’s will be drafted in the 1st round? Over ½ (+500, 5/1) Under ½ (-1000, 1/10) 2014 NFL Draft – How many WR’s & TE’s will be drafted in the 1st round? Over 6½ (-300, 1/3) Under 6½ (+200, 2/1) 2014 NFL Draft – Who will be drafted 1st? Johnny “Football” Manziel (QB Texas A&M) -250 (2/5) Blake Bortles (QB UCF) +170 (17/10) 2014 NFL Draft – Who will be drafted 1st? Khalil Mack (LB Buffalo) -120 (5/6) Sammy Watkins (WR Clemson) -120 (5/6) 2014 NFL Draft – Who will be drafted 1st? Derek Carr (QB Fresno State) -130 (10/13) Teddy Bridgewater (QB Louisville) -110 (10/11) 2014 NFL Draft – Draft Position – Johnny “Football” Manziel (QB Texas A&M)...

In the current landscape of sports if there’s competition and something at stake, there’s a good chance you can bet it if you look in the right spot.  The guys at Bovada have continued their annual tradition of posting draft combine props for your entertainment purposes.  Here’s the current offering for what’s available right now 2014 NFL Combine – Fastest 40 Yard Dash Time           Over/Under                   4.28 seconds 2014 NFL Combine – Most Bench Press Reps   Over/Under                   42½ 2014 NFL Combine – Highest Vertical Leap Over/Under                   43½ 2014 NFL Combine – 40 Yard Dash Time – Johnny Manziel       Over/Under                   4.45 seconds 2014 NFL Combine – Vertical Leap – Johnny Manziel    Over/Under                   32½ 2014 NFL Combine – 40 Yard Dash Time – Teddy Bridgewater   Over/Under                   4.60 seconds 2014 NFL Combine – Vertical Leap – Teddy Bridgewater            Over/Under                   38½ 2014 NFL Combine – 40 Yard Dash Time – Jadeveon Clowney   Over/Under                   4.50 seconds 2014 NFL Combine – 40 Yard Dash Time – Sammy Watkins       Over/Under                   4.32 seconds 2014 NFL Combine – 40 Yard Dash Time – Blake Bortles Over/Under                   4.70 seconds 2014 NFL Combine – 40 Yard Dash Time – Michael Sam            Over/Under                   4.70 seconds 2014 NFL Combine – 40 Yard Dash Time – Rich Eisen   Over/Under                   6.05 seconds 2014 NFL Combine – 2014 NFL Combine – Who will record a faster 40 Yard Dash         Johnny Manziel             -120 Mike Evans                   -120 2014 NFL Combine – Who will record a faster 40 Yard Dash      De’Anthony Thomas      -200     (1/2) Lache Seastrunk            +150     (3/2) 2014 NFL Combine – Will Jadeveon Clowney still be #1 pick in Todd McShay’s next Mock draft following the Combine (Following Mock Draft 2.0)     Yes                  -120 No                    -120 2014 NFL Combine – Will...

With so many people asking on twitter how various props were graded, here’s the complete list from the fine folks at Bovada.  Winners are listed in BOLD Entertainment Odds and Ends SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will it snow during the game?        Yes                  +300     (3/1) No                    -500     (1/5) SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – What will be the temperature at Kickoff?     Over/Under                   34 degrees Fahrenheit SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – What will be the lowest temperature during the game?       Over/Under                   31 degrees Fahrenheit SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will the power go out in the stadium during the game?      Yes                              25/1 ***The power did not go out SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the US National Anthem?        Over 2 minutes 30 seconds                    EVEN   (1/1) Under 2 minutes 30 seconds                  -140      (5/7) ***Note: Time was 1:54 SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will Renee Fleming forget or omit at least 1 word of the official US National Anthem?          Yes                  +250     (5/2) No                    -400     (1/4) SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will Renee Fleming wear gloves when she starts singing the US National Anthem?          Yes                    -200     (1/2) No                    +150     (3/2) SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – If Renee Fleming wears gloves when she starts singing US National Anthem what color will they be?           White                            5/4 Black                            3/2 Red                              4/1 Any Other Color            3/1 ***No Action SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem? Yes                  +400     (4/1) No                    -700     (1/7) SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – How many times will Peyton Manning say “Omaha” during the game?       Over/Under                   27½ ***Note: 2 times SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV during the game?   Over/Under                   2½ ***Note: 0 times,...

Everyone knows that perhaps the best value of the betting year can be found in Super Bowl prop bets. Or at least that is what I like to believe. So if you are itching for action come Sunday or just want to make a few friendly wagers amongst friends, dive into Paddy Public’s Prop Plays to see what I love come kickoff and why: Length of the National Anthem Over 2:25 (+120): I honestly don’t know who the woman is that is singing, but she apparently is being accompanied by an orchestra. Add that to the fact that this is the Super Bowl, an event watched by more than 100 million people, and I am definitely taking the over. This will be more than a song, it will be a long, drawn out, performance. Number of times Eli is shown on TV Under 1.5 (EVEN): Every year I take the over on the number of times they show a celebrity/family member/girlfriend during the game and every year I lose. So this time I’m doing the opposite and taking the under here. They barely showed Peyton last time the Giants were in the Super Bowl and that will no different this time with Eli. Number of times Peyton says Omaha on TV Over 27.5 (-135): Fact: Manning has averaged saying Omaha 37.5 times a game the last two games. Fact: $1,500 will be donated to Manning’s charity every time he says Omaha during the Super Bowl. Fact: This is going to fly over. Yes Richard Sherman receives a PI Penalty (+150): Richard Sherman’s little rant last week along with Peyton Manning being the NFL’s golden boy makes this my favorite bet of the weekend. You think the refs are going to let Sherman rough up...