NFL Week 6 Advanced Lines Courtesy of the Westgate Superbook Thursday, October 9 COLTS -2 TEXANS Sunday, October 12 BRONCOS -6 JETS STEELERS -1.5 BROWNS JAGUARS TITANS -7 BEARS FALCONS -3 (EV) PACKERS -3 DOLPHINS LIONS -4 VIKINGS PANTHERS BENGALS -7 PATRIOTS BILLS PK RAVENS -3 (EV) BUCCS CHARGERS -6 RAIDERS COWBOYS SEAHAWKS -8.5 REDSKINS CARDINALS -6.5 GIANTS EAGLES -3.5 Monday, October 13 49ERS -4.5 RAMS...

It’s easy to get caught up in the energy of a game day, hell that’s what most of us live for all fall. The homework’s been done; hours spent on conference calls, stats, and exploring angles is in the rear view mirror. Unfortunately active involvement doesn’t just stop when a game goes final with a win or a loss. Bet the Board Podcast Over the years I’ve found myself spending more time combing through play by play for games recently completed to effectively “grade” my wagers. It’s hard to ignore just the wins and losses but the real merits of a good wager goes deeper. Football season is a marathon, not a sprint and the most dangerous outcome for all of us is to ignore what we’ve seen and learn from it. As a recurring weekly feature my goal is to take you through my weekly thought process, grading my 5 “public” selections for the week that I’ve elected to use in the supercontest. Typically the criteria I use to grade each play will come from a combination of factors including beating the closing line, winning the box score, staying inside (or outside as a fav) the number for the majority of the game, and identifying intangibles not built into the line. Don’t worry, I’ll explain more as we dive into the exercise. For more stats, lines, and trends visit www.oddshark.com Contest line: Bills +3 Did the play beat closing line? Yes I took +3 whereas the game closed +2.5.  However the best number available in the market was actually Buffalo +4 earlier in the week. Did the Bills win the box score? I wouldn’t say either team won the box score Sunday with stats that pretty much mirrored each other. Buffalo netted +1...

What a weird week in the NFL…then again you can pretty much say that throughout the course of the regular season these days.  In addition to recapping what we learned from the week that was, Payneinsider and I previewed tonight’s showdown at Arrowhead along with a bird’s eye view of the upcoming schedule....

We got back after it today, previewing every single one of the games on the Week 4 NFL schedule.  The energy from your esteemed hosts may have flatlined a bit but the information definitely didn’t.  Feel free to shoot us any comments, questions, or even suggestions on the format while we look to come up with a product with you the loyal listeners in mind. I apologize for some of my audio quality while on the road but the other option was letting Payne go solo on this and pretty sure none of us are quite ready for that yet....

Take a good look at these lines…they won’t look the same when the market opens for business Sunday night upon completion of Week 4.  These numbers are a great tool to identify where oddsmakers needed to make major adjustments based on perception as much as reality All lines courtesy of Westgate Superbook NFL WEEK 5 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2014 VIKINGS PACKERS -8 SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2014  BEARS PANTHERS -3   BROWNS TITANS xxxx   RAMS EAGLES -7   FALCONS GIANTS PK   BUCS SAINTS -11.5   TEXANS COWBOYS -3   BILLS LIONS -6.5   RAVENS COLTS -3.5   STEELERS -6.5 JAGUARS   CARDINALS BRONCOS -7   CHIEFS 49ERS -7   JETS CHARGERS -6.5   BENGALS PATRIOTS -3 -120 MONDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2014 SEAHAWKS -6 REDSKINS...

As gamblers it’s easy to get caught up in the energy of a game day, hell that’s what most of us live for all fall. The homework’s been done; the hours spent on conference calls, pouring over stats, and searching for angles is in the rear view mirror. Unfortunately tthe active involvement process in a week doesn’t just stop when a game goes final meaning a win or loss gets tacked onto the balance sheet. Over the years I find myself spending more time combing through play by play for the games recently completed to effectively “grade” my wagers. We often get caught in just wins and losses (it’s hard not to, can’t pay bills with losers) while the real merits of a bet actually goes much deeper. This takes on added importance as you look to identify opportunities moving forward.  We all know the football season is a marathon, not a sprint and the most dangerous outcome for all of us is to lose site of the forest through the trees.  History is doomed to repeat itself if you don’t learn from mistakes, blame my extensive financial background for this thought process.  Before an event is dead and buried, an extensive post mortem is always required. As a new weekly feature my goal is to take you through some of my weekly thought process, grading my 5 “public” selections for the week that I’ve elected to use in the supercontest. We’ll see how this week’s exercise goes and potentially tweak the format moving forward. Feel free to email me with questions, concerns, or life queries but I should admit dating advice isn’t really my forte. Typically the criteria I use to grade each play will come from a combination of factors including beating...

What the hell is going on with this Monday Night Football line move?!  Fortunately that’s what Payne and I are here for… to help you make sense of the noise before arriving at a final investment on Bears vs Jets.  In addition to tonight’s preview we dove into the massive over adjustments in the market after the results of week 3.  Little to say there’s some value to be found on this week’s ugly ducklings (this will be a common refrain all fall).  The podcast wouldn’t be complete without sharing what we learned from yesterday’s games complete with a quick snapshot of the pretender/contender game regarding some surprisingly fast starts for unusual suspects. Coming soon to itunes (yes, I know we’re slacking)...

We’re almost 3 full weeks into the NFL season…pretenders and contenders be damned.  Albeit it’s a tiny sample size but early on it’s hard to argue with the surprising starts of the Cardinals, Chargers, and Bengals early success meanwhile the 49ers and Packers have looked like anything but world beaters.  There’s still ample time to find that sleeper in the futures market. Here’s a snapshot of the market from before the season compared to how it looked as of this morning Odds courtesy of the Westgate Superbook   Week 1 22-Sep Seahawks 4 7-2 Broncos 5 9-2 Patriots 7 8 Saints 7 10 Bengals 22 10 Eagles 25 12 49ers 9 14 Chargers 25 15 Packers 12 18 Cardinals 50 20 Steelers 22 20 Colts 22 25 Lions 40 25 Bears 25 30 Ravens 25 30 Falcons 60 40 Panthers 60 40 Texans 35 40 Cowboys 75 50 Bills 60 60 Jets 60 80 Chiefs 50 100 Giants 40 100 Redskins 60 100 Dolphins 50 100 Browns 100 100 Titans 100 200 Vikings 50 200 Rams 75 300 Bucs 100 500 Jaguars 200 1000 Raiders 100 1000...

Our mid week report didn’t come with vocabulary lessons capable of expanding Payneinsider‘s vocabulary. We had plenty of fun talking copy write rules and the potential of Payne singing his own rendition of Luck be a Lady for future episodes.  With any convincing, he might be able to produce an album in time for the holidays.  However that’s not why you came to listen…you want the dirt on the upcoming NFL week.  We broke down Thursday night’s NFC South showdown in detail along with plenty of games on the docket this weekend. We’re getting closer to being on itunes…but either way tell your friends about the pod and feel free to offer as much feedback as possible. Enjoy...

The NFL truly is a what have you done for me lately league when it comes to gambling.  Public perception plays a huge role in how oddsmakers adjust numbers after just a single performance.  Identifying over valued or under valued sides becomes paramount if you plan to stay one step ahead of the market.  Last week we saw a perennial NFL bottom feeder in Jacksonville get obliterated on the road by the Redskins and backup QB Kirk Cousins.  Anyone who watched that systematic destruction would be hard pressed to walk to the window this week backing the Jags with confidence.  However historical trends indicate that this might not be as crazy an idea as it would appear on the surface.  Thanks to friends of the program at Spreadapedia we uncovered a few fascinating numbers. Click here to learn more about Spreadapedia Home underdogs the week following a loss by 30 pts or more have produced a record of 84-53-5 ATS, good enough for a 61% success rate (database goes back to 1978) If we dig deeper into the figures to adjust for more recent league trends that win percentage ticks up even further… Since 2000: 41-23-5 ATS (64%) Since 2009: 12-7-1 ATS (63%) Now, if we go deeper applying it to teams that have lost by 30+ AND are listed as home dogs of +6.5 or higher the win percentage goes through the roof… All Time: 41-20-1 ATS (67%) Since 2000: 27-10-1 ATS (72%) Since 2009: 9-3 ATS (75%) One of the first things that jumps out is how infrequently this opportunity actually presents itself.  Is it a significant enough sample size to use for future reference?  I think so and here’s why… Trends often are built on a house of cards.  I mean...

It really is amazing how just one game can drastically impact NFL pointspreads for the following week.  As we saw last Sunday (despite sharp money on the Vikes) books opened the Patriots -3.5 off their loss to the Dolphins whereas they projected a 6 pt favorite.  Here’s a look at the matchups next week if the games were to be played this weekend NFL WEEK 4 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2014 GIANTS REDSKINS -3.5 SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2014 DOLPHINS -7 RAIDERS                    @ LONDON, ENGLAND PACKERS -3 BEARS BILLS TEXANS -4 TITANS COLTS -6 PANTHERS RAVENS -3 EVEN LIONS -1.5 JETS BUCS STEELERS -6.5 JAGUARS CHARGERS -9.5 EAGLES 49ERS -4.5 FALCONS VIKINGS -1.5 SAINTS -3.5 COWBOYS MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2014 PATRIOTS -6.5 CHIEFS  ...

We finally came up with a name!!! Well, at least one we hope will stick.  Either way we’re not in the creativity business however you’ll be hard pressed to find better NFL gambling coverage than we try and offer up each and every Monday and Thursday.  If you’re not already following my cohost Payneinsider , I encourage you to do so now…even if he doesn’t know the definition of the world nomenclature.  Don’t worry if the joke makes no sense, listen to the pod and it will. Covered in the pod: Monday Night Football, What we learned from a crazy Week 2, Injury impacts, and of course looking into the crystal ball regarding early movers.  Enjoy Note: We’re working on getting the podcast on itunes, hopefully we should be all set soon appreciate the patience from you guys towards the two of us who bring zero tech savvy to the table....