NFL WEEK 10 All lines courtesy of the Westgate Superbook THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2014 BROWNS BENGALS -6 SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2014 COWBOYS -10.5 JAGUARS                                 @ LONDON, ENGLAND DOLPHINS LIONS -3.5 CHIEFS BILLS PK 49ERS SAINTS -3 TITANS RAVENS -10 STEELERS -3.5 JETS FALCONS -2.5 BUCS BRONCOS -12.5 RAIDERS RAMS CARDINALS -7 GIANTS SEAHAWKS -9.5 BEARS PACKERS -7.5 MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2014 PANTHERS EAGLES...

Numbers are on the move when it comes to NFL Futures…no, the Broncos are not a mortal lock to win the Superbowl this year.  Last week we saw the Saints price fall to 40 before that number was cut in half on the heels of a big win against Green Bay.  It goes without saying the goal is to cash a ticket but finding a long shot to just get into the postseason will often yield profit. Intriguing Value plays: San Diego Chargers 25-1, Baltimore Ravens 30-1, Chiefs 50-1, Dolphins 30-1 (AFC) All prices courtesy of the Westgate Superbook XLIX @ UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM– GLENDALE, AZ SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015 SUPER BOWL XLIX GAME LINE AFC -2.5 NFC                 TOTAL  52.5 SUPER BOWL SEAHAWKS 6 BRONCOS 9-4 49ERS 14 PATRIOTS 8 PACKERS 8 SAINTS 18 FALCONS 500 BENGALS 20 PANTHERS 60 COLTS 14 CHIEFS 50 EAGLES 16 BEARS 200 CARDINALS 14 COWBOYS 14 GIANTS 100 REDSKINS 300 LIONS 18 RAMS 1000 STEELERS 30 RAVENS 30 TEXANS 60 CHARGERS 25 DOLPHINS 60 BUCS 2000 TITANS 2000 JETS 2000 BILLS 60 VIKINGS 300 BROWNS 80 JAGUARS 5000 RAIDERS 9999 NFC  CONFERENCE SEAHAWKS 11-4 49ERS 6 PACKERS 7-2 SAINTS 8 FALCONS 250 PANTHERS 30 EAGLES 7 BEARS 100 CARDINALS 6 COWBOYS 6 GIANTS 50 REDSKINS 150 LIONS 8 RAMS 500 BUCS 1000 VIKINGS 150 AFC  CONFERENCE BRONCOS EVEN PATRIOTS 7-2 BENGALS 9 COLTS 6 CHIEFS 25 STEELERS 15 RAVENS 12 TEXANS 30 CHARGERS 12 DOLPHINS 30 TITANS 1000 JETS 1000 BILLS 30 BROWNS 40 JAGUARS 2500 RAIDERS...

It’s that time of the week…to review what unfolded during Week 8 and shift our focus to an interesting Week 9 slate.  As always it’s uncensored analysis from @Payneinsider and myself including what we learned, lookahead lines adjustments, potential movers, and of course a preview of Monday Night Football. Stick around…you might just like what you’re about to hear Not a fan of playing the app here? Both of these options are available for your convenience Subscribe on itunes Subscribe to the RSS sound cloud feed...

As is our Thursday tradition around these parts we turn our attention not entirely away from the upcoming Week 8 slate but sneak a peek at future lines.  The price that jumps off the page is the Thursday night NFC South showdown given both teams have what could be defined as must wins this weekend to keep their season’s from getting derailed. THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2014 SAINTS PANTHERS -1.5 SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2014 CHARGERS PK DOLPHINS JAGUARS BENGALS -11 BUCS BROWNS -6 REDSKINS VIKINGS -2 EAGLES TEXANS PK JETS CHIEFS -5.5 CARDINALS COWBOYS -3.5 RAMS 49ERS -7.5 BRONCOS -3 PATRIOTS RAIDERS SEAHAWKS -13.5 RAVENS STEELERS -1 MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2014 COLTS -3.5 EVEN GIANTS...

Another week is in the books (almost) and we’re here to recap what you can use from a gambling perspective going forward.  Aside from the good and pad, Payneinsider and I looked into our crystal balls to talk about which numbers will be on the move this week.  Also the best news of all? We’re finally on itunes!!! Subscribe on itunes Subscribe to the RSS sound cloud feed...

We’re right back at it (Payneinsider and me) breaking down Week 7 of the NFL.  Not only did we hit on a few of the key games being played on Sunday but we also answered your questions asked with the hashtag #AskBetTheBoard and broke down the Thursday game in primetime.  For all the loyal listeners thanks for tuning in and if it’s your first time welcome aboard....

Here’s the complete list of advanced lines for Week 8 of the NFL slate.  These always provide a useful tool in appropriately gauging just how much oddsmakers had to over compensate based on 1 week’s worth of results.  Value is often created as a byproduct of recency bias, scheduling, and situational analysis. NFL WEEK 8 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2014 CHARGERS BRONCOS -6.5 SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2014 LIONS -3.5 FALCONS                   @ LONDON, ENGLAND VIKINGS BUCS PK BEARS PATRIOTS -6.5 RAMS CHIEFS -6 SEAHAWKS -3.5 PANTHERS BILLS JETS PK DOLPHINS -4.5 JAGUARS TEXANS -1.5 TITANS RAVENS BENGALS -3.5 EAGLES CARDINALS -2.5 COLTS -1 STEELERS RAIDERS BROWNS -7 PACKERS SAINTS PK MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2014 REDSKINS COWBOYS...

NFL WEEK 7 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2014 JETS PATRIOTS -9.5 SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2014 BENGALS COLTS -2 TITANS REDSKINS xx DOLPHINS BEARS -3 -120 BROWNS -4 JAGUARS SEAHAWKS -7 RAMS PANTHERS PACKERS -7 FALCONS RAVENS -5 VIKINGS BILLS -3.5 SAINTS LIONS -1.5 CHIEFS CHARGERS -5 GIANTS COWBOYS -3.5 CARDINALS xx RAIDERS 49ERS BRONCOS -6 MONDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2014 TEXANS STEELERS -4...

It’s Thursday which means one thing…podcast time from Payneinsider and I.  Thanks again for all the great questions that were submitted using the hashtag #AskBetTheBoard.  Remember toss them out at any time and while we can’t get all of them this week doesn’t mean we won’t get to them in the future.  For those looking for the breakdown of the Thursday night game, we saved the best for...

Another week in the NFL is almost over…but not until you listen to the Bet the Board Podcast.  Co-host Payneinsider and I broke down tonight’s game between Washington & Seattle (end of pod) and dug deep into how to handle teams like the Jags and Jets ATS struggles.  We learned plenty from the week that was however unless you apply it to future games correctly it doesn’t mean a heck of a lot.  Remember we’ll be back Thursday to preview the upcoming games so tune in then as well....

The Westgate SuperContest is the world’s premiere NFL handicapping competition and the 2014 edition has once again generated a record number of entrants. This year’s prize pool comes from the 1,403 entries, representing a 36% increase in sign-ups from last year’s previous record high of 1,034 entries. The payouts have never been more lucrative, but the bar for picking NFL winners has also been raised. Written by Justin Zovas Just how high is the SuperContest’s standard for football handicapping excellence? We can do some math to approximate the wins-needed to secure the juicy top prize of $736,575…before taxes of course. Contestants will make a total of 85 picks over 17 weeks and assuming each selection has a 50% chance of winning, each entrant has an average expectation of 42.5 wins. An entrant’s winning rate is normally distributed around a mean of 42.5 wins with a standard deviation of 4.61 wins. 68% of entrants (≈954 entries) will win between 37.89 and 47.11 games, 95% (≈1333) will win between 33.28 and 51.72 games, and 99.7% (≈1399) will win between 28.67 and 56.33 games. But what about the remaining four contestants that are expected to perform greater than three standard deviations from the mean? Two will be battling for the embarrassing result of last place (no prize pool for this just yet) while the other two will have plenty on the line come week 17. The 2nd place finisher will finish in the 99.93 percentile which is equivalent to winning 57.20 games. In other words, the champion will need to pick winners at a rate better than 67.3% which is equivalent to a benchmark of 57.5 wins. Last year, the runner-up was expected to win 56.79 games which equated to a 66.8% win percentage, or a benchmark...

It’s Thursday and that means it’s time to preview the upcoming weekend of NFL action.  We didn’t break down every game but shared a few of the prices that will be on the move from now until kickoff.  Thanks to all those that submitted questions using the hashtag #AskBetTheBoard as we did our best to cover them on the air.  For those just interested in the preview of the Thursday night game, we tweaked the format and that will come at the end of the broadcast.  No matter what you play this weekend Best of Luck and we’ll see you at the window....