Complete updated list of game of the year lines from the LVH…after 2 weeks of potential over reactions from the general public 2013 COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES OF THE YEAR THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2013 CLEMSON -12.5 NC STATE FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2013 BOISE ST FRESNO ST -4 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2013 UTAH BYU -6.5 ARIZONA ST STANFORD -7 MICHIGAN ST NOTRE DAME -7.5 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2013 VIRGINIA TECH GEORGIA TECH -2 FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2013 UTAH ST -7 SAN JOSE ST SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2013 LSU GEORGIA -4 TEXAS A&M -13 ARKANSAS USC ARIZONA ST -7 OKLAHOMA NOTRE DAME -1.5 WISCONSIN OHIO ST xxxx QB-?? THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2013 TEXAS -17.5 IOWA ST UCLA -2.5 UTAH FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2013 BYU UTAH ST -1 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2013 TCU OKLAHOMA -8 NOTRE DAME ARIZONA ST -2.5                        @ ARLINGTON, TX OHIO ST xxxx   QB–?? NORTHWESTERN THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2013 RUTGERS LOUISVILLE -15.5 ARIZONA USC -7 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2013 TEMPLE CINCINNATI -18 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2013 TEXAS -1 OKLAHOMA                                @ DALLAS, TX FLORIDA LSU -5 TEXAS A&M -3 OLE MISS STANFORD -7.5 UTAH OREGON -11.5 WASHINGTON MICHIGAN -4.5 PENN ST BOISE ST UTAH ST -3 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2013 MIAMI FL NORTH CAROLINA -3 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2013 CENTRAL FLORIDA LOUISVILLE -11 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2013 FLORIDA ST CLEMSON -1 FLORIDA -7 MISSOURI TCU OKLAHOMA ST -10 LSU -3.5 OLE MISS UCLA STANFORD -9.5 USC NOTRE DAME -7 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2013 KENTUCKY MISSISSIPPI ST -9.5 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2013 BOISE ST BYU -6 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2013 SOUTH CAROLINA -6.5 MISSOURI TENNESSEE ALABAMA -27.5 TEXAS -3 TCU UNLV NEVADA -8.5 UCLA OREGON -18.5 STANFORD -7 OREGON ST THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2013 ARIZONA ST -13 WASHINGTON ST FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2013 USC OREGON ST -1...

ODDS TO WIN 2014 BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ROSE BOWL — PASADENA, CA MONDAY, JANUARY 6, 2014 Odds courtesy of the LVH ALABAMA 9-4 OREGON 6 GEORGIA 30 TEXAS A&M 15 OHIO ST 9-2 LSU 20 SOUTH CAROLINA 20 FLORIDA 30 CLEMSON 15 TEXAS 15 OKLAHOMA ST 25 STANFORD 15 NOTRE DAME 40 MICHIGAN 25 USC 60 UCLA 50 FLORIDA ST 20 OREGON ST 9999 ARIZONA ST 100 NEBRASKA 30 OKLAHOMA 25 LOUISVILLE 30 BYU 9999 VIRGINIA TECH 1000 TEXAS TECH 500 ARIZONA 1000 BOISE ST 9999 MICHIGAN ST 100 UTAH 1000 TCU 500 BAYLOR 100 NORTH CAROLINA 9999 ARKANSAS 1000 WISCONSIN 60 NORTHWESTERN 300 WASHINGTON 100 FRESNO ST 200 CINCINNATI 200 VANDERBILT 9999 MISSOURI 500 OLE MISS 100 AUBURN 200 TENNESSEE 500 NORTH CAROLINA ST 1000 KANSAS ST 9999 GEORGIA TECH 1000 MISSISSIPPI ST 5000 IOWA 9999 WEST VIRGINIA 2000 FIELD...

The On the Line Podcast returns to its regularly scheduled time slot. Drew Collins, Bud Elliott from SB Nation, Adam Kramer of Bleacher Report (and KegsNEggs) fame, and yours truly are back.  Guess what, we’re here to talk real football without the guise of season previews or other nonsense getting in the way.  Sit down, grab a frosty beverage or 12, and enjoy the soothing sounds of frat house banter.  The girls are excited, you should be too. ITUNES?! You can also find us...

Due to some technical issues, mainly attributed to operator error, I wasn’t able to upload last week’s ACC podcast. Think of this as a bonus edition with the ACC and Big Ten (+ Notre Dame) now available for your listening pleasure. The Big Ten pod had a notable absence from the 4 headed monster but so goes the life of a big time college football writer. Not a widget fan? Subscribe to the podcast now available on itunes   Select your desired podcast as all previous shows are available through the talkshoe widget...

As the season rolls closer, our podcasts get more informative (at least we’d like to think so).  This week we tackled all things SEC; focusing on where we thought it best to look for value in SEC Win totals. I’d be lying if I said there weren’t a few Manziel jokes thrown into the mix but as college football fans everyone should hope he’s on the field for the Aggies season opener against Rice.  Love us, hate us…it doesn’t matter but over the course of the 2013 football season our opinions will help make you a few extra coins. Subscribe to the podcast for weekly downloads, now available on itunes My Outkick the Coverage column on Manziel’s impact in the betting...

Summer isn’t completely over just yet but the boys and I were itching to start talking college football so we jumped the shark. (No, not a sharknado). Conference previews are on the way in future weeks but to give ourselves a topic we attacked the Heisman head on in only a manner the OTL gang can do. Each week I’ll be uploading the pod here however you can catch us on itunes all fall long so make sure to subscribe here as...

2013 COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES OF THE YEAR from the LVH Click here for win totals FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 6, 2013 WAKE FOREST BOSTON COLLEGE -1 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2013 SOUTH CAROLINA GEORGIA -5 FLORIDA -6 MIAMI FL WEST VIRGINIA OKLAHOMA -16.5 TEXAS -6.5 BYU NOTRE DAME MICHIGAN -3 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2013 TCU -6 TEXAS TECH FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2013 AIR FORCE BOISE ST -19.5 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2013 UCLA NEBRASKA -7 ALABAMA -6.5 TEXAS A&M IOWA IOWA ST -1 OREGON ST -3 UTAH WISCONSIN ARIZONA ST -5 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2013 CLEMSON -9.5 NC STATE FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2013 BOISE ST FRESNO ST -2 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2013 UTAH BYU -5 ARIZONA ST STANFORD -8.5 MICHIGAN ST NOTRE DAME -5.5 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2013 VIRGINIA TECH -1 GEORGIA TECH FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2013 UTAH ST SAN JOSE ST -1 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2013 LSU GEORGIA -5.5 TEXAS A&M -14 ARKANSAS USC ARIZONA ST -2.5 OKLAHOMA NOTRE DAME -1 WISCONSIN OHIO ST -10.5 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2013 TEXAS -13.5 IOWA ST UCLA -1.5 UTAH FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2013 BYU -2 UTAH ST SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2013 TCU OKLAHOMA -7 NOTRE DAME -2 ARIZONA ST                            @ ARLINGTON, TX OHIO ST -7.5 NORTHWESTERN THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2013 RUTGERS LOUISVILLE -12 ARIZONA USC -10 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2013 TEMPLE CINCINNATI -17 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2013 TEXAS -2 OKLAHOMA                                @ DALLAS, TX FLORIDA LSU -3 TEXAS A&M -5.5 OLE MISS STANFORD -9.5 UTAH OREGON -12.5 WASHINGTON MICHIGAN -3 PENN ST BOISE ST -3 UTAH ST THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2013 MIAMI FL NORTH CAROLINA -3 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2013 CENTRAL FLORIDA LOUISVILLE -11.5 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2013 FLORIDA ST CLEMSON -1.5 FLORIDA -8 MISSOURI TCU OKLAHOMA ST -7 LSU -4 OLE MISS UCLA STANFORD -11.5 USC NOTRE DAME -3 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2013 KENTUCKY...

LVH released their full slate of college win totals today.  The market isn’t set until normal limits are accepted at all books and now we can begin to use these as the industry’s gold standard Click here for game of the year lines ALABAMA       11.0 OVER -155   UNDER +135 OHIO ST         10.5 OVER -160   UNDER +140 OREGON        11.0 OVER -110   UNDER -110 LOUISVILLE    10.5 OVER -120   UNDER EVEN BOISE ST       9.5 OVER -140   UNDER +120 CLEMSON        9.5 OVER -120   UNDER EVEN FLORIDA ST    10.0 OVER -160   UNDER +140 TEXAS          9.5 OVER +105   UNDER -125 BYU            7.5 OVER +145   UNDER -165 GEORGIA        9.5 OVER -120   UNDER EVEN NEBRASKA       9.5 OVER -120   UNDER EVEN SOUTH CAROLINA 9.5 OVER EVEN   UNDER -120 STANFORD       9.5 OVER +110   UNDER -130 FLORIDA        9.0 OVER EVEN   UNDER -120 LSU            8.5 OVER -120   UNDER EVEN MIAMI FL       8.5 OVER +130   UNDER -150 NOTRE DAME     8.5 OVER +110   UNDER -130 OKLAHOMA ST    9.5 OVER -120   UNDER EVEN TCU            8.0 OVER -130   UNDER +110 TEXAS A&M      9.5 OVER -110   UNDER -110 USC****        9.5 OVER -110   UNDER -110 ARIZONA ST     8.0 OVER +115   UNDER -135 MICHIGAN       8.5 OVER +120   UNDER -140 MICHIGAN ST    8.5 OVER -150   UNDER +130 OKLAHOMA       9.0 OVER +125   UNDER -145 OLE MISS       7.5 OVER +120   UNDER -140 OREGON ST      8.0 OVER +110   UNDER -130 UCLA           6.5 OVER -155   UNDER +135 WISCONSIN      9.0 OVER -110   UNDER -110 KANSAS ST      7.0 OVER -130   UNDER +110 WASHINGTON     7.5 OVER +145   UNDER -165 NORTHWESTERN   7.5 OVER EVEN   UNDER -120 UTAH           5.5 OVER -110   UNDER -110 NEVADA         6.0 OVER +125   UNDER -145 UNLV           3.5 OVER -145   UNDER +125 **ALL TEAMS MUST PLAY 12 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION** ****USC MUST PLAY 13 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR...

Yesterday I went into great detail about how to interpret juice on a win total and exactly what it inferred regarding a bookmaker’s stance on a particular team.  My focus here is to share more of an insight into the thought process for how I went about setting a baseline win total to establish a number I felt comfortable having gamblers bet into for each team. First things first, it goes without saying schedule analysis in college football is the starting point for every win total. No matter how good or bad a team appears to be going into the season, if they play nothing but cupcakes compared to power programs it will get reflected in their totals.  I ascribe a win probability to each game on a team’s schedule allowing me to establish an overall “number” for each team.  It’s important to realize these are only baseline numbers for each side, adjustments are always required based on individual power numbers, public perception, and realistic season expectation.  The best numbers in the market aren’t the result of one oddsmaker’s work but rather should be a compilation from an established team (unfortunately this doesn’t happen the way it should). For example here is what my win probability chart looks like for Texas A&M in 2013 Texas A&M Date Opponent Win % 31-Aug Rice 100 7-Sep Sam Houston 100 14-Sep Alabama 35 21-Sep SMU 100 28-Sep @Arkansas 80 12-Oct @Ole Miss 60 19-Oct Auburn 85 26-Oct Vanderbilt 85 2-Nov UTEP 100 9-Nov Mississippi St 85 23-Nov @LSU 50 30-Nov @Missouri 80 Total 960 Notice that the final number is 960, simply translated to 9.6 as a baseline number.  Further digging into their schedule reveals that Texas A&M will only be dogs 2 (maybe 3 absolute max) at most this...

ODDS TO WIN 2014 BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ROSE BOWL — PASADENA, CA MONDAY, JANUARY 6, 2014 Prices current as of 6/24 Courtesy of LVH ALABAMA 5-2 OREGON 7 GEORGIA 12 TEXAS A&M 12 OHIO ST 5 LSU 15 SOUTH CAROLINA 15 FLORIDA 18 CLEMSON 25 TEXAS 30 OKLAHOMA ST 30 STANFORD 20 NOTRE DAME 50 MICHIGAN 30 USC 60 UCLA 40 FLORIDA ST 25 OREGON ST 100 ARIZONA ST 100 NEBRASKA 40 OKLAHOMA 50 LOUISVILLE 30 BYU 200 VIRGINIA TECH 200 TEXAS TECH 500 ARIZONA 500 BOISE ST 100 MICHIGAN ST 100 UTAH 100 TCU 100 BAYLOR 300 NORTH CAROLINA 100 ARKANSAS 300 WISCONSIN 100 NORTHWESTERN 100 WASHINGTON 100 FRESNO ST 300 CINCINNATI 200 VANDERBILT 500 MISSOURI 500 OLE MISS 500 AUBURN 500 TENNESSEE 500 NORTH CAROLINA ST 1000 KANSAS ST 300 GEORGIA TECH 500 MISSISSIPPI ST 1000 IOWA 1000 WEST VIRGINIA 1000 FIELD...

Typical of sharp money, much of it came on underdogs.  As you can see, the wiseguys were betting Iowa, Arkansas, Boston College, TCU, Auburn and Colorado the most ppg, and these teams opened, on average, as +14 ppg dogs, favored in just a handful of games in total. TCU was bet “on” in 6 games, faded in 0.  Auburn was bet “on” in 5 games, faded in 0.  Other teams receiving no adverse betting action (with at least 3 games being bet in their favor) were Iowa, Colorado and California.  Arizona State and Michigan were bet “on” in 5 games, and faded in just 1. The strongest underdog that the wiseguys supported was Arizona State.  ASU opened at pick or and underdog in 5 of their 10 games.  And in EVERY SINGLE game ASU was a pick or dog, the wiseguys bet them, moving those 5 games a total of 6.5 points in ASU’s favor. Click here for the full article and chart highlighting every move Follow the author Warren Sharp on twitter Iowa was TERRIBLE 4-8 SU/3-8 ATS in 2012, but wiseguy $ LOVES them in 2013: not once fading Hawkeyes, moving line FOR them most of any team. FAVORITE wiseguys liked the most? TCU. (Bet “on” 6 games, faded 0). DOG wiseguys liked most? Arizona St (Bet “on” 100% when not favored). Despite going 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS as dogs last year, wiseguys LOVE Arizona State when not favs in 2013: In 5 games lined dog, BET ON ALL 5 x’s. Despite going 7-6 SU & 5-8 ATS in 2012, wiseguys LOVE TCU in 2013: sharp $ moved TCU lines in 6 of 9 games in their favor, NEVER faded them. FAVORITE wiseguys faded the most? Texas A&M, favored in 5 games,...

Friday marks a major event for bettors on the Las Vegas college football calendar. The Golden Nugget will be releasing 250 game of the year lines to the public.  Until then to whet your appetite, here are 10 games (with totals) they’ve decided to release early this year. August 31 – Alabama vs Virginia Tech (Atlanta) – Alabama -17, total 48 September 14 – Alabama @ Texas A&M – Alabama -6, total 54½ September 28 – LSU @ Georgia – Georgia -6, total 52 September 28 – Wisconsin @ Ohio St. – Ohio St. -11, total 45 October 12 – Florida @ LSU – LSU -4, total 41½ November 2 – Florida vs. Georgia (Jacksonville) – Georgia -4, total 44½ November 9 – LSU @ Alabama – Alabama -11½, total 39½ November 23 – Texas A&M @ LSU – LSU -1, total 47½ November 30 – Florida St. @ Florida – Florida -2, total 44 November 30 – Ohio St. @ Michigan – Ohio St. -6, total 50½ Friday you will be able to find the complete list of games at...