Follow the author @HardwoodHype on twitter Beef ‘O’ Brady’s: Ball State vs. Central Florida (St. Petersburg, FL; Fri., Dec. 21, 7:30pm) The game: According to the Mayans, this is college football’s swan song: two teams that only the junkies know a thing about, that combined for seven losses, in about as soulless a venue as one could conceive. Thing is, this could actually be a decent game. After an early season blowout loss at Clemson, Ball State righted the ship and rattled of victories in eight of its next 10, rushing for at least 165 yards (behind Jahwan Edwards –1,321 yards and 14 TDs, with a 6.0 average) in each of those wins. The two occasions on which they failed to eclipse this mark coincided with their two conference losses, by two and 12 points, respectively, at Kent State and at home to Northern Illinois, hardly shameful, as those teams were a combined 16-0 in MAC play. The biggest concern facing BSU today is their qb and his recently broken ankle. While probable, we have to wonder how mobile and effective Keith Wenning will be in the pocket when under duress. Central Florida, meanwhile, winners of eight of its first 10 – the two losses came by combined 10 points at Ohio State and at home to Missouri – is led by a 1,000-yard back of its own, Latavius Murray, who also had 14 TDs and gained 1,035 yards on the ground at a 5.8-per-carry clip. However, the Knights are coming off a pair of crushing defeats to Tulsa (23-21 in conference, 33-27 in the C-USA title game), which, despite the early season moral victories, revealed that UCF owed its hot start as much to a marshmallow schedule (Akron, FIU, Southern Mississippi, Memphis, SMU,...
On the line podcast
posted by Todd
Betting on college football is as American as apple pie and bagging on Gene Chizik. The only difference between this podcast and the Auburn football program right now is the pod actually churns out winners from time to time. The widget’s been acting up so for those using mobile devices and ipads, this link’s for you Click here to...
#BoxscoreReview
posted by Todd
North Carolina @ Miami: 901 yards should account for more than 32 combined points but that was no consolation to over bettors in this game. UNC out first downed Miami 30-26 and out gained them 486-415 yet neither team found any success punching the ball into the endzone. Kent St @ Army: 27-12 first downs, 457-367 yards, and 325-283 edge in rushing yards should amount to a win most nights. That wasn’t the case for Army as they lost 31-17 to the Golden Flashes on their home field despite a decided stat edge. Toledo @ Eastern Michigan: This game never had a chance to stay under however 55 pts in the 3rd quarter isn’t a normal ocurrence. What’s even more impressive is they scored those 8 TD’s in the span of 10 minutes. Maryland @ Virginia: Courtesy of @NW3: Maryland only mustered 10 first downs and 235 yards of offense but used an opening kickoff return and strong 1st quarter to beat UVA going away. Their net rushing production in the win? -.1 YPC Northwestern @ Minnesota: 1-9 on 3rd downs, -50 total yardage, and 67 passing yards isn’t the blueprint for getting conference road wins. Northwestern defied the odds by winning the turnover battle 3-0. Minnesota actually fumbled 7 times although they only lost 2 of them. Syracuse @ Rutgers: Syracuse outgained Rutgers 418-237 and was +8 in first downs despite a 23-15 loss at Rutgers. Yet again the Orange outgained an opponent but couldn’t overcome -4 in turnover differential. Buffalo @ NIU: It takes skill to gain 26 first downs, run 22 more plays than your opponent, and lose by 42 points like the Buffalo Bulls did Saturday. Kudos to the pride of Western NY ...
On the Line Handicapping Podcast: Week 7...
posted by Todd
What better way to jump start the college football weekend than with betting, banter, and ball...
OTL Week 5 Podcast
posted by Todd
A much better showing last week from our panel of talented experts. We won’t name names but there’s one man still looking to lock down his first best bet winner this week…oh what the hell, of course we’ll put pressure on him...
OTL Podcast Week 4 (some winners hopefully)...
posted by Todd
So last week wasn’t a ringing endorsement for our handicapping acumen but that’s what makes football great: you get to do it all again the following week! In honor of @tomahawknation we brought out the big guns to change the podcast mojo this week (there is no truth this picture was taken of him during his childhood) **For those looking to listen on ipads, my apologies. The podcast player isn’t compatible so we’re working on those specifics moving...
#BoxscoreReview Week 3 College Football...
posted by Todd
Every week there are misleading scores that the bookmaking industry is forced to respond to before setting the following week’s numbers. Perception creates value in the market if you’re adept separating fact from fiction. Here are some of the most intriguing tidbits from last week’s games. Navy at Penn St: Despite a stat sheet that showed a strong Navy performance, the final score was much more indicative of how the game actually played out for the Middies. Navy outgained the Nittany Lions and ran 24 more plays despite losing 34-7 with most of their offense coming in the 2nd half. Boston College at Northwestern: Over bettors were a tad disgruntled to know these teams compiled 876 yards, 56 first downs, and 165 plays but only saw 35 on the scoreboard. Totals players might find value as a result the next time these teams step on the field. Even more embarrassing? NU averaged 26 Yards per point, well below the normal college football average. Northern Illinois at Army: Talk about a game full of interesting stats. NIU only held the ball for 17:27 compared to Army’2 42:33. The teams combined to go 17 of 26 on 3rd down (NIU 8 of 9, Army 9 of 17). The Cadets ran 90 plays, 89 of them on the ground and had 3 ball carriers with 20+ carries, each going over the 100 yard threshold. Utah St at Wisconsin: Sure, the Badgers never flirted with a cover but they were fortunate to just win in their own building. Wisky gained 234 yards and the offense looked abysmal for the 2nd time in as many weeks. Danny O’Brien was 5 for 10, 63 yards and one time Heisman candidate Montee Ball grinded out 137 yards on 37 carries. NMSU at UTEP: The aggies 402...
On the Line Podcast – Week 3...
posted by Todd
Breaking down everything you need to know for Week 3 college football. Best bets? You’ll have to listen and find out who the boys and I are on this...
#BoxscoreReview Week 2 College Football...
posted by Todd
Each week we’ll cover all the games that are a;ready in the books, trying to highlight any unusual ocurrences or statistical anomalies to get you prepared for the upcoming slate of games. As always, use hashtag #BoxscoreReview if anything jumps out to you from the weekend in real time and we’ll include it in our post. Air Force at Michigan: AFA out first downed Michigan 26-19 and matched them yard for yard. The propellerheads ran 34 more plays, converted 12-21 3rd downs, and held the ball 11 minutes longer than Michigan leading to an easy cover as +21.5 pt dogs. UGA at Missouri: The key to the Bulldogs success? They were able to get off the field on 3rd down holding Missouri to 4 of 18. Miami at Kansas St: Kansas St punted one time en route to their 52-13 drubbing of the Canes. KSU outgained Miami 498-262 and even that wasn’t a good indicator of how lopsided the game really was in Manhattan. Syracuse vs USC: The final score doesn’t do the Orange justice. Syracause had 27 FD’s compared to 17 for USC and yardage was identical. The major difference? USC outgained the Orange nearly 2:1 on the ground avg 7.8 YPC. Wisconsin at Oregon: The mighty Badgers mustered 207 yards of offense in Corvallis. Heisman hopeful Montee Ball continues to struggle only gaining 61 yards on 15 carries. Fresno St at Oregon: Ducks took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. For the 2nd time in as many weeks, Oregon only scored 7 pts over the final 30 minutes. So far this year they’re outscoring opponents 85-16 in the 1st half but have been outscored 43-14 after the break. UTEP at Ole Miss: The Rebels used a ground and pound game to...
Bama / Michigan Preview...
posted by Todd
Written by @Payneinsider College football storms out of the box faster than Seabiscuit at Santa Anita when Michigan meets Alabama in the marquee week one duel. JerryWorld in Dallas is the stage Saturday evening when the two heavy weights collide to set the BCS championship tone for 2012-13. Expectations are high for the Wolverines’ coming into the season after an 11-win campaign in 2011-12. Brady Hoke has maize and blue faithful thinking National Championship, but that’s facetious thinking in my estimation. Michigan returns 13 starters from a team that caught all the breaks a season ago. They won every close game (those decided by 7 or less), while winning the turnover battle with a +7 differential. The schedule was cupcake city early on, where a young Michigan team was afforded the luxury of learning a new system on the fly. They started 5-0 (all home games), against teams that finished a combined 32-31 last season. Four of their toughest games against Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue and Nebraska were also played in the comfy confines of The Big House. This year, those four teams will be hosting Michigan while salivating at thoughts of revenge. Despite coming away victorious in the Sugar Bowl against Virginia Tech, it was quite an anomaly. Beamer’s boys out gained Michigan 2 to 1, holding the Wolverines’ to just 184 total yards. They were out rushed 3 to 1 and V-Tech had 10 more first downs. To this day, every time I see the score of that game I think my mind is playing tricks on me. Michigan might be in the hunt for a Big Ten title, but they have no shot at a National Championship – don’t think they come close to matching last season’s eleven wins, either. ...
They Still are Penn State...
posted by Todd
by Sports Cheetah One of the more intriguing things a sport psychologist attempts to analyze and understand is the way that athletes respond to pressure, criticism, and adversity. I do not think there is a University that experienced more adversity this past off-season, heck, probably in the entire last decade, than Penn St. We all know what happened, and I don’t intend to dive into any of the specifics. What I would like to do is look at the situation that the Penn St. football team finds themselves in and how everything that has happened to this team will affect their performance on the field week 1 at home against the University of Ohio. What makes this game interesting from the betting angle is how much money came in on Ohio early after the opening number was seen to be as high as 13 initially. We saw this price consistently tick down before it settled at 6 for the past few weeks. It is my impression that this number is now too low, for a few reasons: I really believe that there is a unique emotion and sense of unity that surrounds a team, a school, and the fans after experiencing a tragedy similar to what has happened over the last year. I think if there was any game that Nittany Lion nation—the players, the coaches, and the alumni included—were to band together, it would be week 1 versus Ohio, at home, in a house filled with over 107,000 screaming fans, friends, and family. Sure the Penn St. football team might not be as talented as in the past, but the remaining players on this team chose to stay at the University and represent their school. There is no doubt in my mind they...