By Will Gray (Follow him on twitter @Fullmarx12) Handicapping, they say, is about numbers where spotting minor inefficiencies in a generally efficient market yields long term success. To that end, many handicappers explain that they prefer college basketball to its autumnal counterpart – thinking it is easier for books to set lines for 120 football teams playing once per week than to set lines for 250 basketball teams playing 2-3 times per week. The bookmaker’s flaw, after all, is that he is forced to take a position on every game whether he wants to or not. Buried deep in America’s heartland lies a collection of schools that many would struggle to identify on a map, let alone a basketball court. The rosters lack household names, and the arenas are often sparsely populated – it’s tough to lure more than 2,000 into the Dakota Dome mid-winter unless the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State are coming to Vermillion to take on in-state rival South Dakota. Fans probably know the teams for their mascots if anything, many of which seem stolen from the set of Jurassic Park (looking at you IPFW Mastodons). Far from the national radar, these ten programs battle with the kind of noble ambition Mark Emmert dreams about at night. And slowly but surely, I was lured in. I became drawn to the contrast in styles between high-flying South Dakota State and pedantic, methodical Western Illinois, and I watched with interest Reggie Hamilton’s dogged attempt to emulate Allen Iverson’s 2005 stat line on a nightly basis. School ATS Record O/U Oral Roberts 12-15 14-12 South Dakota State 15-5-1 8-12 Oakland 10-12 14-7 North Dakota State 13-9 9-12 Western Illinois 9-10 5-13 IUPUI 9-11 11-8 UMKC 11-10 12-8 Southern Utah 12-11 7-16 IPFW 9-11 8-11...

Written by professional sports bettor Payneinsider (Note: This poll was structured entering week 16 so won’t be updated to account for games played this week) When talking polls and rankings it’s essential to remain mindful of the agenda from the person(s) doing the ranking. The landscape of college athletics has changed dramatically from the moment 7-figure contracts became common place. One of the fundamentally flawed systems in use is the coaches poll and it’s critical to factor in the word “agenda” when discussing it’s merits (or lack thereof). Coaching trees, alliances, conference favoritism, and a bundle of other ingredients make the coaches poll laughable. Consider this: why wouldn’t a coach rate the teams within his conference or on his schedule greater than their absolute value? As a result conference power rankings see a boost, strength of schedule improves, and suddenly at years end you wind up with a far greater seed in the big dance than you rightfully deserve. Glancing at the latest coaches poll I noticed Notre Dame ranked 18th!? Great story since Mike Brey is one of the nations best — and he’s done more with less than anyone, but there are roughly 30 teams in the country better right now this second than the Irish. When large money is involved, you can bet an agenda in rankings is the fastest way to bleed your wallet. Next, we have the Associated Press Poll acting as a thermometer for the general public always gauging the nation’s hottest teams. No question this is the lesser of two evils, as it’s comprised of local beat writers throughout the country that sit in on practices and interact with players and coaches. Can you see how that could create a bias, though? Interacting with players and coaches...

by Bruce Friedman (follow him on twitter @notthefakebruce) BUY: Baylor (2-4 @Oklahoma State, 2-8 Kansas) Just the team Baylor needs to see at this point to right their ATS ship.  They absolutely destroyed the Pokes in their first meeting in Waco 106-65!!  Now, I don’t expect that kind of a drubbing in Stillwater but I do expect a road cover.  OSU has played pretty well lately while Baylor has burned their ATS backers yet this is a match-up they can exploit and could be undervalued.  After the OSU game,  Baylor has a home revenge date looming with KU who took the Bears to the woodshed in the first meeting.  Look for this game to be hotly contested but I feel Baylor will pull away behind the strength of their home crowd Missouri (2-4 Kansas, 2-6 @Oklahoma) I wont go as far as calling Missouri Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to home/road splits but they’re getting close.  Missouri needed every ounce of energy to dispose of Texas Monday while KU easily clipped OU for the 2nd time this year.  However, things are about to get a lot tougher for Bill Self’s crew this week as they get into the heart of their Big XII schedule.  Missouri knows they need to show the nation they are one of the top teams and that 75% of their body of work wasnt a fluke and I believe they’ll prove it with a comfortable win over Kansas.  The Tigers then head to Norman for a date with OU where they’ll be installed as road favs.  Look for the momentum from a win over KU to propel them through this game as Mizzou makes a push towards the Big XII title. SELL: Kentucky (2-4 @South Carolina, 2-7 Florida) Well...

by @notthefakebruce BUY: Gonzaga(2-2 @BYU) Only one game on tap for the Bulldogs this week as they make their inaugural trip to Provo amidst a major ATS losing skid.  Gonzaga has been hit or miss this season but like always finds themselves overvalued in WCC conference play.  BYU is the second “leg” of a three game road swing that’s key because the Bulldogs have a week between games.  They should be ready to embrace the hostile atmosphere and actually offer value as road underdogs against the Cougars. Connecticut(1-29 Notre Dame, 2-1 @Georgetown) UConn has been one of the most unpredictable teams in the country this year but I believe I have them figured out this week.  Notre Dame is coming off an eye-opening win over Syracuse which they followed up with an outright win as a sizable underdog at Seton Hall.  Uconn handled the Irish in their first meeting at Joyce and am pretty sure they can do it again based on huge match-up advantages at all the key positions.  After hosting Notre Dame, UConn travels to G-Town in what should be a tremendous matchup between two teams fighting for the league’s second seed.  I like Uconn in this spot if the Hoyas end up winning at Pittsburgh on Saturday but if Town enters off a loss, value will be diminished. SELL: San Diego State(1-28 @Colorado State, 2-1 Boise State) Has there been a team in the nation burying point spreads faster than San Diego State?  Now it looks as though they have two cupcakes on their plate this week but they catch CSU at exactly the wrong time; fresh off back to back drubbings at Wyoming and at New Mexico.  I don’t feel that I’ll have value here with the Rams, I know...

Here are my updated projections and spin on industry leader Joe Lunardi’s bracket prognostications.  Amazing what one week’s worth of games can do to the power 16 seeds and as a result written analysis accompanies the elite teams while lines 5-16 highlight those squads improving their seeding while others are playing to secure a spot on the always precarious bubble. 1: Syracuse, Kentucky, Ohio State, Kansas I feel much more comfortable with Joe’s top line this week than I did 7 days ago.  Syracuse, Kentucky, and Ohio State are the three best teams in the country in my opinion and barring a collapse between now and selection Sunday, will find themselves here going into the dance.  Kansas has exceeded expectations thus far but I’m still not ready to sign off on the Jayhawks elite potential just yet.  The home and home series with Missouri along with road trips to both Baylor and Kansas State will tell us more about the Jayhawks post-season prospects over the next few weeks Stock falling:  Kansas 2: Missouri, North Carolina, Duke, Baylor There wasn’t a single team that had a more impressive win this past week than the Missouri Tigers.  The veteran team from Columbia went into Waco and owned the Bears right from the opening tip.  I’m still of the belief they may be the best team in the entire conference (Yes, above Kansas) while Scott Drew continues to amaze me with his inadequacy as a head coach despite top tier talent at Baylor.  As for Duke, they won’t draw my ire this week yet this team is a far cry from previous editions and there will be other ACC losses in the coming weeks. Stock rising: Missouri Stock falling: Baylor, Duke 3: UNLV, West Virginia, Georgetown, Michigan...

by @notthefakebruce Buy Baylor (1-21 Missouri, 1-24 @Oklahoma) Baylor enters Saturday’s showdown with Missouri fresh off a Big Monday drubbing against the Jayhawks in Lawrence.  This Big XII showdown will easily be one of the top five games of the week and it’s unfortunate the game hasn’t been earmarked for primetime.  Since losing at Kansas St, Mizzou has covered 3 straight and may come in a little over valued for Saturday’s contest.  After Baylor beats Missouri, I look for them to carry that emotion over at Oklahoma but be bettor beware if the price tag is too high as they head to Norman.  My major buy interest on the Bears is vs Missouri while I’ll remain luke warm on backing them against the Sooners. North Carolina (1-16 NC State) Only one game this week for UNC and I love it on the heels of last night’s rousing 2nd half comeback in Blacksburg.  For the first time in conference  UNC played 20 complete minutes in battling back from a halftime deficit against Tech to win by 14.  Keep in mind this may be the worst the ACC has been from top to bottom in quite a few years with only Duke and UVA the real competition for UNC when they’re playing at full speed.  I expect the Tar Heels to come out strong and beat the tar out of the Wolfpack this weekend and it will be the resounding blowout UNC fans have craved for weeks. Michigan State (1-21 Purdue, 1-25 Minnesota) The Spartans were on my “SELL” list last week and we were dead on with the analysis as they went 0-2 as predicted.  MSU now returns home to host a scrappy Boiler team but this is a must-win for MSU after back to...

We’re now less than 2 months until selection Sunday and I definitely have an opinion on the current projected field.  Each week I’ll break down bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s bracket with my Vegas perspective of whose stock is rising and falling as it pertains to my adjusted power rankings.  Written analysis accompanies the power 16 while lines 5-16 highlight teams improving their seeding while others hang on for dear life. 1: Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Baylor This line is far from iron clad although for my money 2 teams are virtual locks.  Syracuse continues to boat race all comers and UK’s dominance persists even though they’re forcing bettors into bankruptcy with ATS futility.  Call me skeptical Duke but this Blue Devil team doesn’t defend like past editions. As for Baylor, well they’re still coached by Scott Drew so expect a bad loss or two down the stretch.  I’ll reluctantly keep the Devils on the top line for now although it wouldn’t shock me if they were upset early in the tournament. Last night’s blowout loss to KU doesn’t mean Baylor isn’t elite but I’m not buying them as a #1 seed right now. Stock falling:  Baylor 2: Ohio State, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina Amazing that the Big XII could potentially have 3 teams among the top 8 seeds in the big dance and for what it’s worth I’m selling that potential scenario.  Ohio State will climb the ladder and make their way to the 1 seed before the season ends while I think Missouri is currently playing well above their capabilities and will struggle on the highway throughout conference play. Stock rising: Ohio State Stock falling: Missouri 3: Indiana, Georgetown, Uconn, Michigan St Can I take my pick of which team doesn’t belong here?  Given the...

Is it finally time to buy Kentucky after 11 straight failed covers? Bruce Friedman is up to his old tricks letting bettors know who they should be looking to ride or fade for the coming week. (@notthefakebruce) BUY Kentucky (1-14 @Tennessee, 1-17 Arkansas) November 19th, 2001; Why is that date important?  It’s actually the last time UK covered the spread.  I’ll admit I was on this team to buy the first week I did the column and was dead wrong.  If I’m wrong about them this time rest assured they won’t be appearing on this list again and I may keep them as a sell commodity for the rest of the season.  UK travels to Tennessee who just beat Florida but by Volunteer standards are way down this year under Cuonzo Martin.  Kentucky really should not have a problem here in a game I make the Wildcats roughly 9.5 pt favorites.  Arkansas has played great at home but the Razorbacks aren’t exactly juggernauts on the highway.  This game SHOULD get ugly as I expect UK to just hammer on the Hogs. Ohio State (1-15 Indiana) Only one game on tap this week for the Buckeyes and they enter Sunday’s showdown off a gross loss at Illinois.  The Buckeyes will be ready to exact revenge for the loss to the Hoosiers and you can fully expect 110% max effort in this spot.  Indiana was oh so close to losing to Penn State and I believe the Hoosiers won’t be able to rely on the 3 ball throughout conference play. Indiana is back and they’re a damn good team but at Ohio State I know OSU will play their best game of the year reminisce of the effort against Duke.  I’ll dabble tOSU here anything -13...

Bruce Friedman shares his opinion of who bettors should be buying and selling this coming week in college buckets. @notthefakebruce BUYS Wisconsin (1-8 @ Michigan, 1-12 @ Purdue) Wisconsin rarely loses at home in conference let alone back to back games especially as 17 pt chalk they did against Iowa.  The Badgers followed up that clunker losing a heartbreaker against MSU and now go on the road into tough environments to face Michigan and Purdue.  The Wolverines lost a brutal game of their own in Bloomington last night but still own a 5-2 ATS record during their last 7 games.  I’d have to imagine practices in Madison haven’t exactly been fun and fully expect Coach Ryan’s team to hunker down on the defensive end during this road trip.  Wisconsin should enter Ann Arbor as slight dogs and I expect them to win the game outright.  Purdue’s shocking blowout loss in Happy Valley last night may eliminate some of the value you’ll find on the Badgers vs the Boilers but I’m not high on Purdue and will look at Wisconsin as long as they’re dogged in West Lafayette. North Carolina (1-7 Boston College, 1-10 Miami) There’s no tougher environment for ACC opponents than playing in Chapel Hill as BC and Miami will find out this week.  UNC is finally gelling and playing their best basketball of the year scoring 100 points in each of their last two games.  They have been at home since the first week of December and these are the final home games before a 2 game road trip that will take them to Florida State and Virginia Tech.  I plan to ride them in their final two games of the homestand and will look to sell them next week depending on...

Investment principles applied by savvy stock brokers mirror the same strategies employed by the sharpest sports bettors to insure long term success.  Every week bettors have opportunities to “buy” undervalued teams and “sell” those that are grossly overpriced.  Bruce Friedman provides his weekly take in market watch BUYS Kentucky (12-31 vs Louisville) a quick glance at UK’s recent schedule reveals a team that hasn’t covered a game in over a month and now plays host to a huge in state rival in Louisville; that same Cardinal side that was exposed against Georgetown on Wednesday.  Bettors looking to invest in UK at home always end up paying a premium (see UNC game) however this is a game they’ve had circled in Lexington and I expect max focus and effort in what amounts to a great spot backing the normally over valued and wallet breaking Wildcats. Duke (12-30 vs Pennsylvania, 1-4 @Temple): The last time Duke faced off against Penn it resulted in a 59 point victory.  Yes thats correct, 59 points.  I don’t expect anything near 59 points but this is a game where the Devils can name the number based on talent alone.  Meanwhile the next game following a projected drubbing of Penn is against another Philly 5 school in Temple that’s actually playing good ball. For my money I don’t see the Owls able to match-up with Duke’s shooters and this should be an easy week for Duke heading into conference play. Marquette (1-1 Villanova, 1-4 @Georgetown): Another team that’s been a covering nightmare (0-5-1 L6) and now jumps into the meat of their Big East schedule following a pathetic effort against Vandy where they were never competitive.  The Golden Eagles catch a scuffling Nova side at home who they should beat convincingly...

With conference play about to get started tonight, what better way to preview the nuts and bolts of college hoops than with power projections for the major conferences.  I’ll be adding a conference or two a night until we’ve covered all lined conferences.  Like always, comments and criticism welcomed and encouraged. 1.  North Carolina (14-2) in my opinion the most complete team in the league with the best assortment of athletes.  Problem for the Heels is they’re prone to losing games they shouldn’t but if the ACC gets a #1 seed come March, it will come from Chapel Hill. 2.  Duke (12-4) Duke has impressed me with some nice non-conference wins but what has me concerned is how they were outclassed in Columbus.  Coach K again lacks the athletes to make a push for the natl title but in a down year for the conference they should finish 2nd. 3.  Virginia (11-5) I’ve always been a huge Tony Bennet fan and even bigger one now that he has athletes to play his system.  Mike Scott deserves more natl attention than he garners and their defensive intensity makes for a tough out.  I worry about their inability to score for stretches however even with those question marks they’ll find their way into the big dance. 4. Florida St (10-6) It almost feels like a travesty that a team has to finish 4th behind the top three teams.  FSU is not the same without Singleton but they’re a group who plays lock down defense every single night.  Bigger question with the Noles is how many games they lose late because of Leonard Hamilton coaching blunders. 5. Miami (Fla) (9-7) Arguably one of the most talented starting 5’s in the league the Hurricanes lack depth and leadership. ...