Situations and scheduling yield the best betting opportunities.  Talk to any sharp college hoops bettor and he/she will have games penciled into their betting calendar weeks in advance.  Schedule analysis requires the foresight to look ahead and if everything breaks the right way, you’ll gain the competitive edge before numbers hit the betting boards.  Here are some choice spots worth noting for the upcoming week in college basketball Monday Kansas vs Kansas State The Jayhawks are in free fall, losers of their last 3 conference games. Expect a max effort against in state rival Kansas St but be prepared to pay a price as books realize the sharps were itching to bet the Hawks here and inflated the opening number to -7.5.  Deeper analysis actually reveals this to be a bit of value considering KU was -4 in Manhattan and even with the adjustment for current form, the Hawks should be closer to 9 or even 9.5 pt favorites here. Wednesday Boston College vs Wake Forest Wake comes in fresh off a dismantling of FSU with a revenge date against Georgia Tech on deck. BC finally gets another ACC opponent they can handle in their building brimming with confidence from the near miss against Duke. The lone concern is how a young team handles disappointment from the upset that could have been…in my opinion, they let it build confidence and attack the Deacons with confidence. Depaul @ Notre Dame Nobody fears seeing the Demons on their schedule but coming on the heels of a 5 OT thriller and back to back games against Syracuse/Louisville, the Irish should fear a letdown. Depaul and Notre Dame went to OT in their first meeting only a few short weeks ago. Although the Irish covered the 6 in...

Written by Bruce Friedman (follow him on twitter @notthefakebruce) BUY: Kentucky (12-4, Samford, 12-8, Portland) Another college hoops season begins and Kentucky are the same old Wildcats.  They can never seem to cover an early season game anymore, win-less ATS to start this season as well.  Coming off their first road game in which they were dominated by Notre Dame, they returned home to face Baylor who took advantage of Kentucky’s lack of finishing at the tin.  Numerous times Kentucky had a tip-in missed or squandered bunny making it hard to watch.  However, now welcome Samford and Portland to Lexington and I believe Kentucky will take out their frustrations on these small schools to get their kinks out before their match-up with Louisville at the end of the month. Connecticut (12-4, NC State, 12-7, Harvard) UConn is a team that is in limbo, they cannot go to the Tourney this year but still are showing plenty of fight early in the year.  They beat Michigan State to open the season, later beat Wake Forest before losing to New Mexico, their only loss of the season.  Unfortunately, the only game UConn covered was their opener, SU winners as an 8-point dog.  They now face NC State at MSG who enter off a tough loss of their own against Michigan.  I think that UConn will be able to hang with NC State and should be able to beat the Wolfpack.  Harvard is next up after NC State for the Huskies and the Crimson are no stranger to early season struggles so far.  They lost to a Vermont team that may be better than we all thought in a surprisingly high-scoring affair.  Havard was also blown out at St. Joe’s but did get back in the win...

All stats courtesy of http://www.spreadapedia.com/ Follow them on twitter @spreadapedia I went through our database and looked for situational stats for the 1st round of games. The most interesting thing that stood out is how prevalent Overs seem to be in the 1st round.  While a lot of the ATS data consistently returned around 50%, Over/Unders heavily weighted to one outcome. All stats date back to 2005 #8 vs. #9 seeds in Round 1 are 14-12-2 ATS, but 19-8-1 Over Double Digit favorites in Round 1 are 79-4 straight up, 40-41-2 ATS, and 48-34-1 O/U SEC teams who are seeded between #5 and #9 in the 1st round are only 8-6-1 ATS but 11-3-1 Over When the O/U is less than or equal to 132, SEC teams seeded between #5 and #9 are 7-2-1 ATS and 8-2 Over the 1st round. #7 vs. #10 game, when the Over/Under is less than or equal to 133, the Over is 14-3 The last two teams to be #1 seeds out of the SEC were Kentucky in 2010 and Florida in 2007.  Billy Donovan’s Florida squad went 4-2 ATS, with 6 Overs and 0 Unders on their way to the National Championship.  Calipari’s 2010 Kentucky squad lost in the Elite Eight, but not before compiling a 3-1 ATS and O/U record. Between 2010 Kentucky and 2007 Florida, SEC #1 Seeds holds a 9-1 ATS and 9-1 O/U record in the Tournament. –    Over/Under records by Major Conference in the Opening Games (1st Round)…. –        ACC……………….25-12 –        Big 12……………24-14 –        Big East…………32-22 –        Big Ten………….26-13-1 –        C-USA……………10-2 –        Pac-10…………..21-10 –        SEC……………..25-8-1 #3 seeds are 17-11 ATS in the 1st round but double digit #3 seed favorites are 11-6 ATS.  Single digit...

by Michael Dugan (follow him on twitter @jbplayhouse) The NCAA tournament is perhaps the best three-week stretch on the American sporting calendar. The first Thursday and Friday, in particular, are spectacular. They’ve come to represent a de facto national holiday, without a doubt 2 of the least productive days in the United States, as millions suddenly fall prey to a 48-hour bug that forces them to stay home and watch basketball all day.  For the other brave souls who miraculously make it to work, productivity is negative since they spend the day streaming games, using the following Monday to make up for the accounting errors made during games. For years now, a select group of buddies and I meet in Las Vegas for that opening weekend in what has become our own little tradition. While it certainly has become a bit harder as we’ve grown older, had children, and moved to different corners of the country, the core of the group remains intact. After each trip we all leave town with another year’s worth of memories, the residuals of a massive hangover and the promise to do it all again the following season. Rarely, however, do we leave with any actual money in our pocket. So while I’d love share all the secrets we have learned and all the massive hauls each one of use have taken home over the years, I can’t do that. The only thing I can do is share five sure-fire ways to stay in the red while betting on the NCAA tournament: * Plying yourself with booze for 16 straight hours 4 days in a row Sure, it’s fun and undoubtedly good for you, but, surprisingly, there seems to be an adverse relationship between consuming large amounts of alcohol...

I’ve said for years if bookmakers and gamblers were involved in ranking teams we’d have much more accurate polls despite the NCAA’s vehement disagreement.  If Vegas seeded the field, things might look quite a bit different than how the selection committee slotted 68 teams this past Sunday. Keep in mind the seeds assume Syracuse still had the services of Fab Melo when the field was announced. The matchup’s below would carry point spreads consistent with traditional 3 vs 14 match-ups unlike the Georgetown vs Belmont game where the teams actually rate 15 and 16 respectively in our current power poll. However, this field doesn’t account for the logistics of travel, pods, or religious limitations but gives us the match-ups the way they should be in the opening round.  The only major adjustment?  I believe the 16 seeds should be playing in the “first” round rather than pitting the 12,13,14 seeds against one another. South Regional: Home of the #1 Overall Seed (1) Kentucky vs (16) Norfolk St vs (16) Mississippi Valley St (2) Wichita St vs (15) Monatana (3) Duke vs (14) St Bonaventure (4) Georgetown vs (13) New Mexico State (5) Baylor vs (12) Notre Dame (6) LBSU vs (11) West Virginia (7) Texas vs (10) Murray State (8) Temple vs (9) Purdue West Regional: Home of the #2 Overall Seed (1) Mich St vs (16) Long Island vs (16) Western Kentucky (2) Syracuse vs (15) UNC-Asheville (3) Wisconsin vs (14) Lehigh (4) Belmont vs (13) San Diego St (5) Florida vs (12) Davidson (6) Gonzaga vs (11) Harvard (7) Michigan vs (10) Uconn (8) Creighton vs (9) Iowa State East Regional: Home of the #3 Overall Seed (1) Ohio State  vs (16) Loyola Maryland vs (16) Vermont (2) Missouri  vs (15) Lamar...

by Will (follow him on twitter @fullmarx12) This week, 68 of the best basketball teams in the country will begin their chase for a national title. At the same time, 32 more teams will compete in the NIT, hoping to turn the disappointment of missing a trip to the NCAAs into a trip to Madison Square Garden. Still beyond that though, far from the national radar, sits the wonder that is the College Basketball Invitational. Here season-long mediocrity is celebrated and rewarded – as much as paying $35k for the privilege of hosting a first-round game can be considered a reward. In recent years, though, the CBI has turned out to be a legitimate proving ground for teams looking to rebuild. VCU’s much-heralded run to the Final Four last year was preceded by a CBI championship in 2010; similarly, Creighton made a run to the CBI finals last year before falling to Oregon. This year, they are MVC tournament champions and one of the stronger mid-major teams in the country. So among this year’s 16-team field, who has the best chance of turning a strong CBI showing into a successful 2012-2013 campaign? Evansville (16-15, 9-9 MVC): Scoring was rarely the issue this season for Evansville, as the Purple Aces finished 24th in the nation in 3-point FG% and 12th in FT%. Most notably they came within a point of a season sweep of MVC tournament champion Creighton, winning at home and losing the rematch in Omaha 93-92 in OT. The offense for Evansville revolves around guard Colt Ryan, who averaged 20.2 PPG this year and will likely be the focal point of the team next year in his senior season. Evansville will host Princeton as slight favorites in the first round, looking to improve...

  Everyone wants a chance to compete against an elite field, so why should the NCAA tournament be any different for sports fans? How do I enter? Create a CBS User ID using your Twitter handle for registration purposes.  This way, people can interact with each other throughout the competition. Click here to enter After you click the link above, you will be routed to the contest home page.  #Beatthebookie will prompt you for a password listed below Password: Vegas2012 Why should I compete? Everyone wants to beat the best gamblers and bookmakers in the world – now’s your chance to put up or shut up and put me in my place!  The pool will be capped at 400 entrants so those slow to the party may not make the cut! What can I win?  The first annual Todd’s Take #beatthebookie trophy that will be the talk of the town.  Like in sports, there is no prize for coming in 2nd since we’re not here to dole out youth soccer participation trophies.  Cream will rise and a champion will be crowned. Also, in the spirit of the game, we’ll offer an additional prize to whoever has the best trash talk tweet using the hashtag #beatthebookie during the contest.  We’ll choose 5 and let YOU guys vote on who deserves the special prize.   Questions?  Please send all inquiries to todd@toddstake.com...

By Brandon Crusan (follow him on twitter @cruz0210) The month of February  had its share ups and downs for College Hoops bettors this year. February  brought us rivalry week, judgement week, and bracketbuster Saturday, but if you talk to anyone who gets down on college hoops, they will tell you it was the month of 2nd half meltdown.  Meltdowns didn’t discriminate based on conferences or teams, almost everyone was effected. This list contains teams that are going dancing, bubble teams, and teams that just flat out terrible. Without further ado, here are the top 20 worst second half meltdowns of February in no chronological order. Oregon -10.5 @ Utah (2/2) Tied 36-36 at half 2H Oregon 43-32, 79-68 Ducks final Detroit +2.5 @ Valparaiso  (2/2) Detroit up 45-36 at half 2H 45-28 Valpo, 78-73 Crusaders final Marquette -10 @ Depaul (2/6) Depaul up 43-40 at half 2H 49-33 Marquette, 89-76 Golden Eagles final UVA +2.5 @ Clemson (2/14) Tied 24-24 at half 2H 36-24 Clemson,  60-48 Tigers final Florida -2.5 @ Alabama (2/14) Tied 26-26 at half, 2H 35-26 Florida, 61-52 Gators final Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma (2/14) Okla up 33-28 at half 2H 41-25 Texas, 69-58 Longhorns final Nova +3.5 @ USF (2/15) Tied 20-20 at half 2H 45-31 USF, 65-51 Bulls final UNC -5.5 @ Miami (2/15) Miami up 35-30 at half 2H 43-29 UNC,  73-64 Tarheels final UNLV+5 @ New Mexico (2/18) UNLV up 27-26 at half, 2H 39-18 New Mexico, 65-45 Lobos final Purdue +4.5 vs MSU (2/19) Purdue up 38-35 at half 2H 41-24 Michigan St, 76-62 Spartans final (purdue started 2h 1/21 from field) Texas -2.5 vs Baylor (2/20) Texas up 36-26 at half 2H 51-36 Baylor,  Bears 77-72 final Northwestern -2 vs Michigan (2/21) Northwestern up 31-24 at half,...

Missed #25-#21? Click Here (Includes explanation of the ranking system) Missed #20-#16? Click Here Missed #15-#11? Click Here Provided by professional sports bettor PayneInsider.  Follow him on twitter @Payneinsider #10 – WISCONSIN BADGERS (20-8) BIG 10 AP Poll: 16, Coaches Poll: 15 Despite a half-dozen players auditioning for a role in the upcoming 2012 movie; Rocky VI “The Return of Drago,” Wisconsin has managed to gear their secondary focus on “breaking” the Big 10. Bo Ryan is like a robot; wash, rinse, dry, repeat as he continues to recruit the same style of player and hasn’t veered away from a game plan he created pre-shot clock. Jokes aside, this Badgers team plays great team ball and is one of the top 3 defenses in the entire country. There’s no quit in this team, they’re tough, extremely physical – and that style of play translates well when you get outside the Big 10. No question the Badgers lack playmakers, but regardless of the talent deficiency Wisconsin has been in just about every big game they’ve had racking up 4 wins against my top 50 including; 2 wins against my top 25. For the players and coaches battling out on the court it’s all about wins and losses, but when sharp guys dissect teams we factor in “quality loses.” They fell short at North Carolina by 3 points, lost a heart breaker at home in overtime to Michigan State, and by two buckets to Ohio State at home before beating them on the road yesterday. At the end of the day a few bounces here or there throughout the course of a 40-minute contest could have turned the tide in Wisconsin’s favor. The Badgers follow up Sunday’s big win with tough home games versus Minnesota and...

By Bruce Friedman (Follow him on twitter @notthefakebruce) BUY: Syracuse (2-25 @UConn, 3-3 Louisville) Amidst a 1-4 ATS streak, Cuse heads to Storrs for a primetime game against the disappointing Huskies who they should handle no problem.  However, we never know what to expect from UConn: the unexpected however the 2-3 zone from the Orange will hamper Uconn’s shooting all night long.  Syracuse then returns home to face the Cardinals who they really want to beat in their own building.  The two teams played to a 1 pt game earlier this month and rest assured the Orange will not be distracted on senior day.  Look for the Cuse to come out swinging in their regular season finale and keep Louisville playing from behind the entire afternoon. SELL: North Carolina (2-25 @Virginia, 2-29 Maryland, 3-3 @Duke) UNC has been on a tear lately but have two games this week that could end up as landmines before finishing the season at Duke.  The Heels travel to Charlottesville today in a game that should be much closer than the experts and general public believe.  Roy Williams and company comes home Wednesday to face Maryland but will have Duke on their minds in an obvious sandwich spot.  To close out the year UNC takes on their bitter rival Duke and although I have them listed as a sell, they could offer some value for that contest if they struggle in their next 2 games. Notre Dame (2-25 @St. John’s, 2-27 @Georgetown, 3-2 Providence) The Irish have been dominant the latter part of the season going 8-1 ATS.  They are coming off a drubbing against the Mountaineers but now have two straight road games against St. John’s and Georgetown before finishing the year at home against Providence.  I feel...

Provided by professional sports bettor Payne Insider Follow him on twitter @PayneInsider Missed #25 – #21? Click Here Missed #20 – #16? Click Here Lets get it on… #15-SAINT LOUIS BILLIKENS (22-5) A 10 AP Poll: NR, Coaches Poll: NR I love Temple this year, but Rick Majerus and the Billikens are the king of the castle in the A-10 conference. Before you say; “But wait, Temple beat St. Louis and will likely win the conference, how can they be better?” I know, sharp bettors are weird! It’s great you match up well against a specific team but reality is there are 343 other teams in the country, and Saint Louis has been better against them. Temple ranks slightly better than St. Louis in offense, but the Billikens are one of the best defensive teams in the country. Come tournament time you can always rely on defense, but offense at the college level tends to pull a Houdini-act as pressure mounts (just ask Butler after last year’s final). The Billikens aren’t as tested as I would like having only played 2 teams in my top 25, but they weren’t outclassed in those match ups by any means losing both by an average of 4.5 points. St. Louis has racked up 7 wins against my top 100 and I like a team that’s savvy, has some experience, plays defense, and has an all-world coach that can prepare them for the ins and outs of the NCAA tournament. The Billikens are one of the most underrated teams in the country and will offer value on college basketball’s biggest stage. Next Big Game: 2/28 Vs. Xavier Musketeers #14-MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES (23-5) BIG EAST AP Poll 10, Coaches Poll 10 Buzz Williams always has his Golden Eagles swarming...

Provided by professional sports bettor PayneInsider Follow him on twitter @payneinsider #20 – KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (19-8) BIG12 AP Poll: NR, Coaches Poll: NR Frank Martin has put Kansas State on the map since his arrival in 2006 as an assistant. Many disagree with his on-court demeanor, but you can’t dispute the fact that he’s a master recruiter and gets non-stop effort from his guys. Many were down on K-State this season but failed to realize that their horse, Rodney McGruder, was hampered with injuries during their lull (later became public knowledge). When gauging teams with impact freshman, you must account for larger adjustment gaps as they continue to improve throughout the course of a season. This is the case with freshman guard, Angel Rodriguez – and their top player off the pine in Thomas Gipson. The Big 12 is absolutely loaded this year, so back to back wins on the highway against Baylor and Missouri are extremely impressive in addition to their 6 big time wins against my Top 50. Don’t look now, but if the Wildcats reel off 5-straight conference wins to close out the regular season that momentum should carry over to March. Next Big Game: 2/25 Vs. Iowa State Cyclones #19 – CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (22-6) PAC12 AP Poll: NR, Coaches Poll: NR I will admittedly tell you the Cal Bears are one team that has the sharpest sports betting minds mystified. There hasn’t been much movement on California all season as we’ve been extremely reluctant to move them past this spot. Mike Montgomery’s boys are effective on the offensive end, sharing and shooting the ball well – they can knock down shots with the best of them. Despite Cal in the drivers seat to win a power conference, they...