Written by Emile Avanessian (follow him on twitter for more NBA insight @hardwoodhype) In April 2009, I was extremely “bullish on the Bulls” in their opening-round series against the defending world champion Boston Celtics and LOVED (from the Bulls’ perspective) any matchup involving Derrick Rose. Before Game 1 in Boston, having gotten down on the Bulls in every way possible (money line, teaser and spread, which I believe was +8.5), I still felt I’d not thrown enough support behind D-Rose. As much fun as they are (and you’ve not lived until you’ve been emotionally invested in Tony Scheffler’s third target on a Monday night), I’d never been a big believer in proposition bets as a means to consistent profitability. However, wanting to put more money where my mouth was, I plunked down a few bucks on Rose’s “points + assists” exceeding 23.5. The cash was never in danger, as Rose torched the C’s for 36 and 11 in an OT win. As that Bulls and Celtics game wound down, LeBron James and his top-seeded Cavaliers were prepping to tip off their postseason at home against the Detroit Pistons. Looking at the line before tipoff, I was (in hindsight, mistakenly) apprehensive about laying 13.5 points. Shuddering at the thought of getting financially and emotionally invested in the game only to watch LBJ slap the Pistons with 35-10-8 in a 103-90 win, I knew that there was NO DAMN WAY LeBron would lay an egg to kick off what was to be his coronation. Thinking back to the types of statements that Magic, Michael and Larry made to kick off the playoffs with top-seeded teams, I bought into the idea that LeBron would follow suit and rack up more than 42.5 points, rebounds and assists. While the...

By Matt L’Heureux Follow him on twitter @EL_Apostrophe We’ve all been there before: the dreaded sports loss decided by a half-point. Included in these gut wrenching losses are cases where an underdog misses the cover in overtime when a single point in regulation – one way or another – would have prevented the extra period. It’s brutal, but more importantly, it leaves a lasting memory ingrained in our gambling psyche. There is no league where a loss by the hook is more excruciating than professional basketball. It’s a sport where teams score approximately one point per possession and possess the ball nearly 100 times per game. Without breaking a sweat, you can recall a dozen shots that rattled out (or in), questionable foul calls, and a toe on the line negating a three point shot. The phrase “game of inches” comes to mind. By now you are nodding in agreement spouting out half-point NBA losses like they were bad beats at the poker table. (Translation: No one wants to hear about them) But how often does it really happen? Some argue that the NBA side market is too efficient to beat but I just think that the memories of losing basketball plays last longer and negatively alter our perception of reality. For example, there have been 467 games played in the 2011-2012 NBA season through February 19. When comparing the final score to the prevailing closing line, 14 were decided by exactly a half-point. In fact, the average discrepancy between final score and closing line is a whopping 9.35 points through nearly two months in this lockout shortened season. This is roughly in line with what we’ve seen over recent years in the NBA, and guess what, it will continue to be around this...

by Rob Perez (Follow him on twitter @world_wide_wob ) BUY BOSTON CELTICS 11-10 team record, 11-10-0 ATS Old, wrinkly, and well past their prime. Ladies and gentleman, your 2012 Boston Celtics. This team struggles to score points, seems to be on another planet at times, and barely mustered a split from the lowly Cavaliers this week. Mediocre ATS record, mediocre SU record but like any good investor I see opportunity … no better time to buy this veteran gang than right now … LOW. Why? Despite all of their flaws, Boston is one of three veteran teams (Boston, San Antonio, LA Lakers) you can trust to win when it matters. Even though we are only 21 games into their NBA campaign, this is a pivotal time for teams to separate from the rest of the pack. If you are able to create some breathing room in the conference standings now you get the luxury of resting before the playoffs. Of all teams, the Celtics know/need this most. Right around this time last year, the Celtics put together two modest winning streaks and rolled off 8 of 11. They built a nice little cushion and went into, “we’re ok with 3rd place in the East” mode, where all of their regular season value evaporated into thin air. IF they are able to string a winning streak together now, they know they can coast through the back end of the regular season into the playoffs. They are relatively healthy, sans Rondo’s wrist injury, and if you ever wanted to bet on the Celtics … NOW is the time. NOT when they win 8 of their next 10. LA CLIPPERS 13-7 team record, 11-8-1 ATS Despite their popularity amongst the public, great overall record, and being anointed...

When you can’t play D, you can’t cover the number: Just ask Amare by Rob Perez ( @world_wide_wob ) Today, we are going to honor the line movers of the NBA Season thus far. Let’s call this awards ceremony: “The Hoopsies” My name is World Wide Wob, and I will be your host today. Out on the red carpet, the stars are beginning to make their way into the theatre. Let’s go to our ‘square’ correspondent, Petey Public, who’s currently with one of the nominees – take it away, Pete! “Thanks, Wob. I’m here with Kyle Lowry of the Houston Rockets. Kyle, thank you for taking the time to speak with us today, do you know you lead the league in three point attempts from 30 feet or more?” –Petey P. “I do, Pete. So far, I’ve loved being the new starting Point Guard for the Rockets. It’s my responsibility to dribble the ball across half court; and when I do, sometimes I get the itch to throw a shot up there.” – Kyle L. “Now, Kyle, you have made your fair share for sure, but have you ever considered waiting for your teammates to get into rebounding position before you launch a 33 foot three point attempt?” – Petey P. “To be honest, it never crossed my mind.” – Kyle L. “Well, there you have it, Wob. Kyle Lowry of the Houston Rockets, nominated for the ‘All NBA Heat Check’ team, sounds pretty comfortable scoring 15.3 PPG despite half of his shot attempts occurring when his team has zero chance of scoring or getting back on defense otherwise…. Back to you!” Thanks Petey. Before we commence with the ceremony, I’d like to reiterate the prerequisites for being nominated: The team of the nominated...

Can Vince McMahon’s business model really help your NBA handicapping? by Rob Perez ( @world_wide_wob) When asked by my friends why I love the NBA my answer is the same every time: it is the WWE of sports. How has the WWE survived this long despite a homogenous fan base and how did they eliminate WCW during wrestling’s glory days? STAR POWER. D Generation X vs. The Nation Stone Cold vs. The Undertaker The Rock vs. Triple H Kane, Mankind, the Big Show, the McMahon family. If you followed the WWE during its prime in the late 1990s/early 2000s, you had something to root for EVERY match. If it was the Intercontinental Title bout (the WWE equivalent of the Poinsettia Bowl), the European Championship (think NIT of college hoops), etc..   you cared because superstars were participating, and you were guaranteed to stand up and yell “OHHHHH!!!!!” or “WOW!!!” at least once. You didn’t care what the wrestler’s records were, let’s be honest. You knew you were going to get a show. Now, the WWE has lost its stardom to Hollywood, and is struggling to sell 20,000 tickets to Wrestlemania, their Super Bowl, in Miami. I know what you’re thinking by now, how the hell is this related to handicapping the strike shortened NBA nightly grind but don’t worry, we’ll get there. There is no sport, (professional, college, or amateur) that has the star power of the NBA. I love the NBA because I can sit down, turn on Kings vs. Wizards and am entertained as if it were a playoff game. If you are not familiar with the NBA, the Kings and Wizards have been two of the worst teams, statistically, in the league the past five years. This year, the Kings are 2-3...