All odds courtesy of William Hill US ODDS TO WIN 2013-14 NBA TITLE Heat                +230 Thunder        9/2 Bulls                6/1 Spurs              7/1 Clippers         10/1 Rockets         10/1 Pacers            15/1 Grizzlies         20/1 Lakers             20/1 Knicks             22/1 Warriors        22/1 Nuggets        25/1 Nets               30/1 Mavericks    30/1 Celtics            50/1 Hawks            75/1 Wolves          100/1 Bucks             100/1 76ers              100/1 Blazers          100/1 Jazz                 100/1 Pelicans         150/1 Cavaliers       150/1 Kings              150/1 Wizards        200/1 Raptors        200/1 Suns              300/1 Pistons         300/1 Magic            400/1 Bobcats        500/1   ODDS TO WIN 2013-14 STANLEY CUP Penguins          11/2 Blackhawks      6/1 Bruins                 8/1 Rangers             10/1 Kings                   12/1 Sharks                15/1 Red Wings        15/1 Blues                  15/1 Capitals             15/1 Canucks            15/1 Ducks                 18/1 Senators           20/1 Wild                    25/1 Canadiens        30/1 Islanders           30/1 Maple Leafs     30/1 Flyers                  35/1 Oilers                  35/1 Devils                  40/1 Lightning           40/1 Blue Jackets     40/1 Jets                      40/1 Predators          50/1 Hurricanes        50/1 Avalanche         50/1 Coyotes             50/1 Stars                    60/1 Sabres                75/1 Flames               100/1 Panthers          ...

Prices courtesy of LVH Odds to win 2013/2014 NBA Championship HEAT 7-4 THUNDER 9-2 BULLS 7 SPURS 7 PACERS 15 CLIPPERS 15 GRIZZLIES 20 KNICKS 20 LAKERS 25 NUGGETS 25 WARRIORS 25 ROCKETS 25 MAVERICKS 40 CELTICS 40 NETS 40 HAWKS 50 JAZZ 100 BLAZERS 100 WOLVES 100 PELICANS 100 KINGS 100 CAVALIERS 100 WIZARDS 100 RAPTORS 100 76ERS 100 BUCKS 100 SUNS 300 PISTONS 300 MAGIC 500 BOBCATS 500 ODDS TO WIN 2013-2014 EASTERN CONFERENCE HEAT 10-13 BULLS 3 PACERS 6 KNICKS 9 CELTICS 18 NETS 18 HAWKS 23 CAVALIERS 45 WIZARDS 45 RAPTORS 45 76ERS 45 BUCKS 45 PISTONS 125 MAGIC 225 BOBCATS 225 ODDS TO WIN 2013-2014 WESTERN CONFERENCE THUNDER 7-4 SPURS 3 CLIPPERS 13-2 GRIZZLIES 9 LAKERS 11 NUGGETS 11 WARRIORS 11 ROCKETS 11 MAVERICKS 18 JAZZ 45 BLAZERS 45 WOLVES 45 PELICANS 45 KINGS 45 SUNS...

Maximizing profitability from series betting is one of the most underutilized options for the casual gambler. We broke down hedging in a post earlier this week but as we sit on the cusp of the NBA Finals, I wanted to break down a common mistake I see bettors make. At the beginning of every playoff series, no matter the sport, we all have opinions as bettors who will advance. However from a wagering standpoint your decision to bet (or not bet) should be driven by one thing and one thing only; PRICE. Let’s use the Heat vs Spurs series to illustrate my point (hopefully everything will make a lot more sense by the time you’re done reading this).  If I believed the Spurs were going to beat the Heat, betting the series before it starts at the current market price isn’t the best investment.  Most shops are sitting anywhere from +170 to +175 as I write this article so for argument’s sake lets use the higher price of +175 to explain why. If I were to bet the Spurs at +175, the math is simple: risk 1 unit to win 1.75 and let the best of 7 play out.  However, why would I bet the Spurs at +175 if I could get them on the moneyline for Game 1 at +190.  The next question that’s inevitably asked is why would I bet that because if the Spurs lose Game 1, my investment is dead and there’s no chance of recovery.  This is where knowing your bankroll and betting expectations comes into play because maximizing potential profit also carries slightly more risk. If the Spurs drop game 1, the series price will drop to +250 and that’s where the value shift occurs. You can now...

Written by Bruce Friedman (follow him on twitter @notthefakeBruce) BUY:   Michigan State (12-18, @ Bowling Green, 12-22, Texas) Calling Michigan St inconsistent to start the year would be an understatement.  They now travel to face Bowling Green who has done well facing the teams on their inferior early-season schedule.  Bowling Green, even on their home court, will not have a chance against the Spartans in this match-up.  After their tilt with BG tonight, MSU takes on a Texas team that looks like a shell of their former selves.  Texas simply cannot find their way as it seems no one wants to step up for them in big games whih should continue against Sparty.  Texas plays North Carolina before MSU and that will beat them up for Saturday’s game.   Xavier (12-19 Cincinnati (N), 12-22 Wofford) Last week I had Marshall in my “BUY” section of Market Watch picks because they have not covered a spread all year and were in a prime spot to contend against the undefeated Bearcats.  However Marshall lost their leading scorer for the game and the final score made it look like a blow-out.  Marshall was in that game until the final 5 minutes where they completely fell apart without a go-to man.  I think Cincinnati may trip up here against Xavier and think I was 1 game premature to fade the Bearcats.  After Cincinnati, Xavier faces Wofford and to put it simply, if Xavier beats Cincinnati I believe they will be pumped and continue that momentum and just thrash Wofford.   SELL:   Wyoming (12-18 Denver, 12-21 UC Santa Barbara) Wyoming has the bandwagon chugging along, they are 10-0 SU and 6-1 ATS.  This week however they face Denver who has been atrocious ATS going 1-5, but after...

Written by Bruce Friedman (follow him on twitter @notthefakebruce) BUY: Marshall (12-15, Cincinnati) The Thundering Herd welcome the undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats to Huntington Saturday in what looks to be walk in the park for Cincy.  This is the highest Cincinnati has been ranked in years (12th), but could could they get caught looking ahead against a Marshall team that has failed to cover the spread yet this year??  Yes, thats is right, Marshall is 0-6-1 ATS this year.  Now granted, Cincy is only 3-2 ATS, but they have still met Vegas expectations at least once.  Cincy should be over confident before they even make the trip, whereas Marshall will be ready to pull off an upset (wishful thinking).  This will be a game similar  to Illinois-Western Carolina where I stated that Illinois already knew they won and played down to the Catamounts with the dog cover never in doubt.  We will not have to sweat Marshall in this game, take the points and grab lunch. USC (12-15 UC Riverside) Trojans are coming off a 5-game losing skid with the last two losses against formidable teams in New Mexico and Minnesota. UC Riverside should be just what the doctor ordered to help the Trojans get back in the win column.  I believe this is a matchup that USC desperately needs to get back on track and will come out knowing that they need to handle their business.  Look for a surprisingly decisive win for the offensively challenged Trojans. SELL: Indiana (12-15 Butler) Butler visits the Hooisers in what should be a fairly interesting game.  Butler brings their “we can beat anyone” mentality against the best team in the country and I believe they will compete.  When I say compete, I tend to mean compete witinh the number.  Indiana has...

Written by @sportscheetah One of the most intriguing arguments in sports right now, (whether it be on ESPN between paid analysts or between the every-day fan on Twitter), is discussing Lebron James and his inability to show-up and compete late in big games. Many people often ask: Why do great athletes sometimes fail to show up in important situations? More specifically, I’d like to ask why did Lebron James, so dominant in fourth quarters leading up to the NBA Finals last season, start making rookie mistakes when it mattered most? Confronting this question from a sport psychologist’s point of view helps people understand that Lebron’s issues are real but that they can in fact be overcome. With the NBA Finals already under way and Miami facing a series deficit, I’m more curious to see how LBJ responds to his third crack at a title than I’ve ever been for another athlete. Jumping back in time to the 1989 Stanley Cup Finals, we can learn a few things from one psychologist named Hap Davis. The story says that one of the Calgary Flames players came back to the dressing room right before the opening face-off in Game 1, turned to the team’s sport psychologist and made an honest confession: “I’m scared.” Hap Davis has spent more than a generation examining why athletes succumb to pressure. He thinks he’s found an answer that explains both LeBron James’ poor play in the NBA Finals last year and why Dirk Nowitzki’s emotional response to winning paint a completely different picture. To bore you guys a bit, here is your psychology lesson for the day: In moments of fear, the human body produces cortisol, which helps its fight-or-flight mechanism. When you hear the story about the boy who was able...

Written by Emile A (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype) You wanna know why we put up with the months of public jousting over BRI, “flex cap” and a repeater tax? This is why. Some playoff matchups are so comprehensively soaked in narrative that their ticket to NBA lore is virtually ensured, irrespective of quality of play. Others earn a place in the pantheon through monumental performances and moments; sometimes the stars simply align on both fronts. On the a heels of a wildly entertaining conference finals, one that treated NBA fans to all but one of 14 possible games, the sporting gods have bestowed upon us a Finals matchup filled to the brim with star power, awe-inspiring talent, and Sweeps-worthy storylines: Fresh-faced newcomers vs. the sport’s most reviled crew Dynasty-in a-Box vs. Draft-and-Develop. Young vs. well, Slightly Less Young. Derek Fisher’s pursuit of Michael Jordan. Flash and The Beard in a flop-off for the ages. One of the NBA’s best scoring outfits led by the league’s most devastating attacker, fresh off a stellar performance against a star-studded opponent whose veteran savvy looked as though it might be a deciding factor. By his one side an obscenely gifted, if occasionally maddening, perimeter running mate for whom a defined role is not easily defined and by the other, a versatile star – without whom the season might have ended prematurely – whose incredible talent, while recognized, often does not receive top billing. And the Oklahoma City Thunder will be there too. As always, matchups will be key, as will in-/inter-game adjustments by Erik Spoelstra and Scott Brooks in response to mismatches that emerge. From a prop perspective, this matchup features as star-studded and public a cast as the league can offer outside of All-Star Weekend. Thus,...

Contributed by Emile (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype) Thanks to continued attrition and plainly apparent gulfs in class among the combatants, the trends that will govern the NBA’s conference semis have begun to reveal themselves. Following up on Part I of my look at NBA playoffs prop culture, a quick rundown of what to look for going forward as the final eight lock horns: Matchups to Watch: Conference Semifinals, Part II Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers Got It Made: No one’s rockin’ the throwback look this spring quite like Kevin Garnett. In eight 2012 postseason contests, KG has been exceptional. Not “good for his age,” downright elite. In six games against the Hawks and one against Philly, he’s posted a 23.7 PER (in the 2004 postseason, during which he collected his MVP trophy, his PER was 25) and an awesome .241 Win Shares/ 48 minutes. During the regular season (admittedly a larger and more meaningful sample), only LeBron James (a silly .298) and Chris Paul (a batshit-but-sane-by-comparison .278) bettered this mark, with no one else topping .230. There is a case to be made that Garnett’s recent dominance – 16+ points five times, including 28 and 29 in his last two games; 11+ rebounds six times; 27+ points + rebounds six times (thanks to that Game 2 buzzer beater!), including four games of 32+ – may be setting the stage for a fade opportunity, but with an all-timer in legitimate don’t mess with greatness mode, Philly’s difficulty in defending bigs ,  and KG’s P+R lines still in the 26/26.5 range, I’d hold off on betting on a correction coming anytime soon. Look To Fade: Jrue Holiday proved the most productive (if not always efficient) point guard in the east outside of Massachusetts in Round 1....

Contributed by Emile A (follow his prop advice on twitter @hardwoodhype) The NBA playoff field has been halved, and thus far the only certainty is that at the final buzzer in June we will have a new champion. We’ve lost a prohibitive favorite, though relentless nips from the injury bug foreshadowed the death knell. Neither the class of the NBA’s Western Conference nor the stars form South Beach endured great difficulty in punching their respective tickets for Round 2, while the aforementioned gale of heartache ripped through the Windy City. Both L.A. squads parlayed commanding 3-1 series leads into grind-it-out Game 7 victories and the Pacers disposed of (for now) SVG’s shorthanded-but-game Magic, while a Joe Johnson-led squad fared about as well as one would expect against the Celtics in May. The first of two installments on the opening round that was, the second round that is and an update on NBA prop culture: San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers Got It Made: Don’t overthink this. Tony Parker is now, by some margin, not only a catalyst but also the primary offensive threat on the presumed favorite out West. Look to ride: While Parker’s points + assists line has steadily climbed this season and now hovers around 28/28.5 after starting the new year in the vicinity of 22/23, it’s hardly inflated. Parker earned his MVP candidacy during the regular season and did little to tarnish it against the Utah Jazz in Round 1, with games of 27 and 28, along with an 18- 9 in Game 3. He’s fared no worse against the Clippers of late, notching 28+ P+A in three of five meetings the past two regular seasons (including a 30- 10 on February 18), with one of the shortfalls a 14-point, 9-assist...

Contributed by NBA Prop Wizard Emile A (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype) At playoff time, increased emphasis is placed on the ability to recognize strategic shortcomings and adjust decisively, without the luxury of protracted deliberation (aka s**t or get off the pot for those scoring at home). Tweaks are made from one game to the next, either in the interest of exploiting a newfound mismatch, offsetting an opponent’s advantage, or simply shaking up the status quo. A coach, unable to allow a trend to fully develop must use whatever information he deems most valuable – be it from the team’s most recent outing, the regular season, or a particular head-to-head matchup through the years and shift on the fly. This predicament in which NBA coaches find themselves this time of year mirrors the cat and mouse game between bettors and bookmakers. In the time one might require to identify, research, and confirm an emerging trend during the regular season, said trend has often come and gone. This phenomenon extends, in terms of velocity and magnitude, to the shifts made by bookmakers on wagering lines, particularly (thanks to the market’s relative illiquidity) player props. As we have seen from the outset, in the sportsbooks’ quest to simultaneously maintain an accurate market in a “new season” without straying too far from equilibrium, prop lines in the postseason are prone to considerable volatility. No in-depth discussion on the subject of sports wagering can go very far without touching on the subject of line volatility, or “getting the best of the number.” Whether on this site, others similar to it, podcasts (a frequent topic on Chad Millman’s Behind The Bets pod) or in conversation, much is made of understanding the significance of seemingly minor moves in not only a betting...

by NBA insider Rob Perez (follow him on twitter @world_wide_wob) Looking for more NBA analysis from Rob? Click here to visit his blog   San Antonio Spurs We all know how good San Antonio is and has been for the past decade. My question: Does Vegas know? Judging by where they’re priced the Spure offer more value to win the Western Conference than the public darling Oklahoma City Thunder currently do. Considering their odds to take home the title, there’s a ton of value on a side that will have homecourt throughout the Western conference playoffs. In my opinion betting on the Spurs to win a single series makes ZERO sense. If you are confident in the Spurs this postseason, your best bet is to take them to win the NBA Title. I do NOT think they will win the championship, but at current market price, you can optimize the value on them to just win the West. The opponent the Spurs will potentially face in the NBA Finals will NOT be heavy favorites even if it’s now a safe assumption that Miami will represent the East in the finals. Oklahoma City Thunder The “Stay Away” bet of the 2012 NBA Playoffs for me are the Oklahoma City Thunder. Don’t get me wrong, the Thunder are a solid basketball team, but I personally have them ranked as the 3rd, maybe even 4th best team in their own conference — let alone in the NBA with MIA in the East. Here’s my problem with betting OKC: they are Square’s weapon of choice. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka all should have their own SportsCenter segment. They are incredibly flashy, young, and high-powered. Think of the Thunder as the NBA’s version of the Green Bay Packers: no high- matter who they play, or where they play them, they...

We invited resident NBA prop guru @HardwoodHype back to talk NBA playoffs and here was what he came up with. Throughout the quest for the Larry O’Brien trophy, he’ll be making weekly visits to share his perspective on attacking the inefficient prop markets.   First and foremost: when betting an over line, MAKE SURE YOUR PLAYER WILL BE ON THE FLOOR. More than any other factor, this is vital. There is a single unifying trait among basketball players that put up numbers: They have to be on the floor to do so but keep in mind all playing time is not created equally. How often does a player (superstar or not) see superstar minutes (35+)? Take a look at the minutes players logged during the abbreviated regular season and realize minutes may actually go up this time of year as coaches have no reason to rest major contributors.  Also, as prop lines tend to fall in line with season averages, pay attention to the manner in which a player receives his playing time. Better to align yourself with a 33-minute per game guy whose playing time rarely deviates by more than a minute or two game-to-game than a guy averaging the same 33, but seeing anywhere from 24 to 42 minutes of burn a night dictated by the situation. Is a player chronically foul-prone? In honor of the opening weeks of the 2009-10 season, I refer to this as the Greg Oden Principle. Decidedly pro-Oden at the time (I still would be, if only…), I fell into several over bets involving the snakebitten big man in the 11.5 range for points + rebounds. Easy money, right? RIGHT….y’know, until the inevitable “two fouls, done for the quarter” stroll to the pine at the 7:00 mark...