Last week I tweeted out a picture of MLB future odds available at the South Point Hotel and Casino (since tweeting the picture they’ve moved their odds considerably). Before I get into my more extended thoughts on the topic, I want to say that I unfairly singled out their race and sports book for offering a price on the Cubs to win the World Series that bordered on absolutely ridiculous. They aren’t the only shop in town with a number so low on the loveable losers that even Ronnie Woo Woo wouldn’t bet into after 100+ years of futility. However my thesis here isn’t to single out one specific book but rather share my own personal experiences at Caesars as a microcosm of a dangerous practice plaguing our industry in Vegas. To anyone familiar with what the once iconic book at Caesars Palace (and the rest of the Caesars entertainment family) has become, this will come as no surprise: they don’t make it a priority to take big bets in the race and sports book. During my stint with the company, I spent time actively working to make our futures prices across all sports fair and competitive. However this task became exceedingly difficult operating under a stern initiative to keep theoretical hold at a minimum of 40%. To those unfamiliar with the terminology, this means that the market is created to keep $40 of every $100 wagered.  The goal is to create a “greenhouse” with perfect equilibrium; an environment that invites the right amount of dollars on every team allowing the house to profit regardless of a heavy favorite or prohibitive longshot winning the title.  The sharpest bookmakers use their opinions both before and during the season to shade the market accordingly, creating a...

WrestleMania, The Showcase of Immortals, is in the past and as the shock of the Undertaker’s undefeated streak ending has worn off and the Yes! chants have faded, we now turn the focus on to SummerSlam. Written By: The Fitz Not only is SummerSlam the biggest party of the summer but it is also one of the highlights of the often bleak summer wagering calendar.  Before you scoff at the idea of wagering on a scripted event just remember that SummerSlam takes place at the Staples Center where pretty much every Lakers playoff game in the 2000’s had a pre-determined outcome. John Cena and Brock Lesnar is your main event, there is an entertaining mid-card and thanks to a few offshore books there’s a reason to watch every match. Jack Swagger (-230) vs. Rusev (+170) – Flag Match If you think the most patriotic thing you were going to get this summer was during the Fourth of July, think again. This match has been built up over the last few week alongside the real life escalating crisis in the Ukraine – pinning Jack “The Real American” Swagger with Zeb Colter in his corner, up against Rusev and Lana who have spewed their Russian nationalism on every broadcast. Fun fact: Lana (real name C.J. Perry), is a hard 9 from Gainesville, Florida. This line opened on with Jack Swagger the favorite at -210, while Rusev was priced at +160. Since opening Swagger has lost some steam and been bet down to -190, while Rusev has shifted to +150. Look for the WWE to go for the cheap pop and let the U-S-A chants ring loud and Old Glory be waved proud. Prediction: Jack Swagger Chris Jericho (+700) vs. Bray Wyatt (-1500) Chris Jericho will be...

Headed to Vegas before football season starts? Don’t be surprised when you walk into a casino looking to bet on the Heisman trophy and the option doesn’t exist.  This isn’t anything new to the Vegas landscape however it remains the main individual award in sports the casual fan would like to bet if given the opportunity.  The Nevada Gaming Control Board has restrictions in place prohibiting the type of wagers sportsbooks in Nevada are able to accept.  Those particular contests are limited to greyhound races, horse races, or athletic sporting events.  There’s a laundry list of parameters pertaining to sporting events themselves as well but rather than bore you with legalese, contests need to be classified as games of chance at both the professional and collegiate level.  Books are also not allowed to book any amateur athletics either that are deemed non-collegiate sports.  For any other sports related wagers to be accepted, special permissions need to be issued after appropriate paperwork is submitted. While working at Caesars I attempted to go through the approval process for booking the Heisman. By no means is this a simple yes/no questionnaire with a high success rate.  Gaming requests a list of items to protect the market’s integrity; asking for specifics on how votes are submitted, counted, and a winner ultimately verified among other things.  Gaming’s primary responsibility is keeping market’s transparent, serving to protect the casino and player alike.  I do believe we’ll see the Heisman on the betting board very soon given the award’s defined rules on voting and deadlines.  When the time comes, casinos willing to book this particular market will need to close wagering days before all ballots are submitted unlike offshores that currently take bets up until the award is handed out in...

what it takes to be a member of our writing team? As football approaches we’re looking for talented writers of all ability levels interested in attacking sports journalism from the gambling perspective. What we want: Funny Gambling related stories Unique handicapping angles Statistical analysis Tales of Degeneracy First hand perspective from women about their own gambling or dealing with friends, boyfriends, or husbands that do Anything creative What we don’t want: Game Previews Picks 5,000 word essays All we ask is that you answer the questions below and submit your responses Click here to submit answers Do you have any previous writing experience? (Don’t worry, its far from a requirement if you’re creative and insightful) What sports do you feel most comfortable discussing in depth? Why do you want to write for a sports gambling blog? How long have you followed the sports betting industry? Are you a sports bettor yourself and if so what sport do you find the most success? Do you have certain teams/schools you feel more comfortable discussing objectively? Please don’t think of this as an interview but rather as an opportunity to highlight your talents, especially for those without extensive writing experience.  Feel free to submit any previous samples as well. Thx to everyone who is interested in pursuing the opportunity and we hope to hear from all of you! Compensation...

August 25th, 2014… it’s not a major date on the sports calendar but it is for TV buffs.  The primetime Emmy awards provide opportunity for bettors to line their pockets with a couple of extra pesos only a few short days before football season starts.  Earlier today Bovada released a variety of betting markets for the biggest award show in primetime television where Breaking Bad is an overwhelming favorite in the outstanding drama series.  While these limits are low at most offshore books, the influx of locals and other secondary markets actually yields opportunity for some.  No one says you should be running to bet any of these since they’re as much about entertainment value…but with perfect information out there you’d be foolish not trying to capitalize on an edge. 66th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards – Outstanding Drama Series     Breaking Bad                                        2/7 True Detective                                       5/1 Game of Thrones                                  8/1 House of Cards                                     9/1 Mad Men                                              30/1 Downtown Abbey                                    50/1   66th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards – Outstanding Comedy Series   Veep                                                    2/1 Orange Is The New Black                       2/1 Modern Family                                      4/1 Louie                                                    5/1 The Big Bang Theory                             6/1 Silicon Valley                                        30/1   66th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards – Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series     Matthew McConaughey (True Detective)             4/9 Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)                          3/1 Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)                         8/1 Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)                             12/1 Jon Hamm (Mad Men)                                       25/1 Woody Harrelson (True Detective)                      25/1   66th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards – Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series Robin Wright (House of Cards)                          4/7 Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)                   5/2 Kerry Washington (Scandal)                               7/1 Claire Danes (Homeland)                                   15/1 Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)                    20/1 Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex)                            20/1   66th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards – Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series ...

Big sporting events mean big betting limits. Superbowl, national championships, World Cup final: you name it and a good sportsbook operator should embrace the action if he trusts his numbers.  Pinnacle sports recognized the opportunity in front of them this coming weekend leading to their choice of a nice round number for Germany vs Argentina: $1,000,000 limits on spread bets.  No, this isn’t a gimmick it’s an offshore leader indicating the strength in their numbers inviting sharp action from the world’s best bettors.  Within minutes of Argentina’s penalty kick win over the Netherlands, oddsmakers hung prices they believed were air tight for the final. Opening lines (prices have moved obviously)   Spread: Germany @ -0.25 1.99 (-101) Argentina @ +0.25 1.95 (-105)   1X2: Germany @ 2.32 (+132) Draw @ 3.32 (+232) Argentina @ 3.46 (+246)   Totals: Over 2 goals @ 1.88 (-114) Under 2 goals @ 2.04 (+104)   It came as no shock to the bookmakers at Pinnacle the first wave of bets came in on the Germans given the dismantling of Brazil still fresh in bettors heads.   “Ultimately, Germany’s dominance made them a clear favourite entering the finals over an Argentinian team that hasn’t had a similar standout performance and failed to score in 120 minutes against Netherlands. At the same time, Argentina’s four clean sheets kept our estimates on opening lines relatively close. Of course, as always, money will determine which way they’ll move,” a marketing spokesperson at Pinnacle said   Every bettor has been there before, enamored with the last thing we see on the pitch governed by a phenomenon called recency bias.  How quickly the pedestrian efforts from the German side were in tying Ghana, sneaking by the USA, squeezing out a win vs Algeria, or...

Not everyone has the opportunity to spend two years working for an industry leader in any field. When it comes to sports information, that was exactly the luxury I was afforded at Don Best.  It has been a real privilege learning and interacting with some of the sharpest sports betting minds in the world, building on the foundation that was laid while working at Caesars Entertainment.  I want to thank not only management and the great staff at DB but all of you the loyal viewers that came to appreciate the work of our content team at donbest.com or donbestadvantage.com.  Whether you visited the sites to watch videos, read articles, utilize power numbers, or check odds, it’s truly been an honor for us to provide sports betting content that hopefully made you a few bucks along the way.  For those interested in the changing direction of the organization, here’s the full statement issued from DB management: Company Statement Q: What happened to the Don Best TV videos? A: We are no longer producing videos for the www.donbest.com website effective July 1st as the management team has decided to put more focus on our organization’s B2B products and services.  Please feel free to check out our corporate site at http://www.donbestcorp.com to learn more about these products.  That being said, note that the donbest.com website now features editorial content so feel free to check in daily for a new feature article.  Also note that there still is video content for the time being at www.donbestadvantage.com. If you have any questions regarding the future of DB Advantage please feel free to email me here.  Those with current active memberships will still have their memberships honored moving forward.  I’ll personally continue to provide relevant industry info right here on these pages as long as people keep reading...

Why are so many daily fantasy sites closing if the industry has such big potential? What do the following websites have in common? – Profanity Sports – Draft Zone – Daily Joust – Cantor Fantasy Sports – Fantazzle – FantasySportsLive – BuzzDraft – Win Place Show sports – Fan Saloon – SnapDraft – Frafty – Fantasy 365 – RotoDraft – Double Up Written by Trev Rogers Each site was part of the “can’t miss” daily fantasy sports industry but all failed miserably. These entities aren’t alone; the list will easily grow by another 3 or 4 sites by the end of the 2014 fantasy football season. SO WHAT WENT WRONG? Did the sites simply not raise enough money? Is the daily fantasy sports industry not growing as anticipated? I can tell you that one of the failed sites listed above squandered almost $2 million dollars of funding. Many of the failed DFS sites jumped into the industry completely oblivious to the obstacles that awaited them. Some investors lacked insight, convinced that the DFS industry was going to grow so rapidly that customers would find their way to each site and spread around the wealth. It amazes me that small or new DFS sites continue to waste money on advertising. What are you thinking? Your marketing efforts are only introducing customers to the industry as a whole. New DFS sites lack volume, they can only offer small prize pools and almost zero head to head contests. Rather quickly, the new customer that they just acquired, figures out that the established DFS sites offer much more in terms of player experience and opportunity to win large cash prizes. Now, a top DFS site will gain a new, somewhat educated customer, for virtually no cost. Add in...

Lets start with two quick questions: True or False? I can legally wager $5,000 tonight, that I can choose 9 MLB players, who will score more fantasy points than the 9 MLB players you choose. Answer: True But wait, I thought betting on sports was illegal outside of Nevada and a few states that offer football parlay cards? This sounds a lot like online gambling. I thought the UIGEA Act of 2006 killed off most online sportsbooks and online poker sites? True or False? You can enter a daily fantasy baseball contest for just $2 tonight and potentially win 1 of 50 seats in a 1­day $3.3 Million Championship contest in August. Answer: True DraftKings.com is offering their players a chance to win a trip to the Bahamas (expenses paid), to compete for a shot at $3.3 million dollars in a one day fantasy baseball contest. 1st place wins $1,000,000 cash, and the remaining prize money funnels down to the other 49 contestants. Written by Trev Rogers Welcome to the rapidly growing world of Daily Fantasy Sports contests!  DFS sites allow users to wager thousands of dollars on the performance of professional athletes each day within large multi­user or head to head contests. Back in 2006, the National Football League, along with other pro sports leagues, lobbied Congress to exempt fantasy sports from the UIGEA, which was intended to crack down on illegal online gambling. They obviously had no idea that a few years later daily fantasy sports sites would emerge to take advantage of a carve­out fully intended for the traditional season long format. The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 carve­out for fantasy sports businesses requires they meet the following criteria: (#1) The value of the prizes is not determined by the number of participants or the amount of fees paid (#2) All winning outcomes reflect the relative knowledge and skill of the participants (#3) The fantasy game’s result is not based on the final score of any “real­world” games. Simply put, Daily Fantasy Sports Contests are legal, because they are considered a game of SKILL, rather than CHANCE. The legal exemption exists for wagering on games of skill in which the winners are not determined by the outcome of a single game or the performance of a single player. The skill aspect focuses on the user choosing “real life” players to win a contest based on his/her knowledge or skill. When we compare the skill vs. chance ratio of 9 players (roster size varies) having to perform, versus the virtual coin flip of choosing which team will win a game, we begin to see how the skill vs. chance ratio is viewed by lawmakers. Also note, that there must be more than 1 game on the schedule for a particular sport, in order for cash contest to take place in single day. Based on this carve­out, daily fantasy sports contests likely comply with federal regulations. This does not mean that all contests available on daily fantasy sites are 100% in line with the regulations. “Pick 5” games offered by some daily fantasy sites, are an example of the industry potentially pushing the boundaries of the carve­out too far. “Pick 5” contests are similar to a 5 team parlay where you can bet $11 on one set of 5 player vs. player matchups. If you correctly choose the player that scores more fantasy points in all 5 matchups, you just turned $11 into $200. The 3 largest daily fantasy sports (FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftStreet) do not offer “Pick 5” games. We can only assume that their legal counsel has deemed this type of game beyond the regulations of the fantasy sports carve­out. I will take a closer look at these contests in future posts examining how DFS sites make money. Not all states allow daily fantasy sports contests. If you live the in following states, you are currently prohibited from playing a “real money” game on daily fantasy sports sites; Arizona, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, and Quebec, Canada Wall Street Support For DFS  It is no surprise that major media companies are beginning to see the huge potential of DFS. With an estimated 36 million people playing fantasy sports in North America, the revenue that could be earned from the average 10% rake on these daily contests is enormous. Roughly four years into this rapidly growing industry, no major legal challenges have been brought against the DFS trailblazers. In the past year, private equity and media companies such as Comcast Ventures ($11 million to FanDuel), Redpoint Ventures (led a $24 million round of funding to DraftKings), IAC (DraftStreet), and MGT Capital (DraftDay), made investments in DFS sites. Involvement by publicly traded companies continue to legitimize the industry, as we wait for the “big 3” of ESPN, CBS and YAHOO to dip their toes into the daily fantasy sports niche. ***** In my next article, we will examine just how difficult it is for a company to enter and survive within the daily fantasy sports industry. The potential is great, but the process must be efficient. Just ask the ten DFS sites that have already “closed their doors”. ** Trev Rogers was employed by a daily fantasy sports website for the past 2 years. He will be providing a unique perspective of the Daily Fantasy Sports industry, along with answering comments and questions over a series of blog...

We’re clearly in the age (at least offshore) where you can bet on anything under the sun.  Given David Letterman’s surprising retirement announcement earlier this week , Sportsbook.com created a wagering market for who could replace him in 2015.  Some of the names may surprise you but of course some won’t.  Either way it’s never a bad thing to be in action… Stephen Colbert +350 Chelsea Handler +600 Jon Stewart +600 Conan O’Brien +800 John Oliver +800 Neil Patrick Harris +800 Ellen DeGeneres +1200 Craig Ferguson +1500 Chris Rock +1500 Louis CK +2000 Tina Fey +2500 Amy Poehler +2500 Jimmy Kimmel +3000 Maya Rudolph +4000 Jerry Seinfeld +4000 Daniel Tosh +5000 Amy Schumer +5000 Drew Carey +5000 Kevin Hart +5000 Howard Stern +7500 Seth Meyers +7500 Michael Strahan +7500 Arsenio Hall +7500 Seth MacFarlane +7500 Ryan Seacrest +7500 Seth Green +10000 Jay Leno +10000 Larry David +10000 Mike Myers +10000 Lena Dunham +10000 Alec Baldwin +10000 Charlie Sheen +10000 Bill Simmons +25000...

We know the pick selling business by nature has a bad rap.  There are outfits that do an exceptional job sharing info and going above and beyond to help advise their clients on making informed betting decisions.  However, this is not one of them and their promotional video deserves inclusion in the Hall of...

The casino billboards lining America’s roadways tantalize with the lure of riches. “Easy Street. It’s Only a Play Away,” screams one in Arizona. “$7.1 Million Every Day. We’re a Payout Machine,” reads another. But how often do gamblers really win? What are the chances that a gambler will win on a single day or over a longer period? Don’t bother to ask the casinos. Although they gather vast quantities of data about their customers for marketing purposes, including win and loss tallies for many regulars, casinos keep such information a closely-guarded secret. Click here to read full article Todd’s Take: There’s no disputing the addictive nature of gambling if you don’t take control of it.  Even in sports where most of us think the individual has total control over his behavior, there is a compulsive element that some just can’t handle.   Casino gambling is a sure fire way to erode your bankroll over time and should be viewed as a form of entertainment not revenue generating potential.  The math behind every single casino game eventually leads to gamblers ruin meaning the longer you stay in action the more likely you are to have nothing left unless you’re cheating. Short term wins are highly plausible, they keep people coming back to the casino. However the longer you stay in a seat the possibility of walking away a winner diminishes exponentially and it’s why every casino strives to impose length of play requirements on their customers before issuing lucrative discounts and comps.  The shelf life for a whale (ultra high end gambler) is typically 5-7 years and after that point the bankroll just can’t withstand a beating.  Sports are a slightly different animal than trying to beat the casino. Information, numbers, and an optimized bankroll can...