I try to make this an annual tradition as the betting markets change and I hear more creative stories from the social media community about how they’ve put their money work for them. Degeneracy comes in many a form, often manifesting itself in the most fascinating glimpses of human nature. To figure out exactly what depths each of you has gone too here’s my informal quiz to quantify your current state. Don’t fret if you score off the charts, embrace your true self and be proud of what you’ve accomplished. (Note: this quiz is designed for North American bettors. There was no way to include every soccer, basketball, or other domestic league around the world without making head’s spin) Sports Section What Sports have you bet on in the last year? (Add 1 point for all that apply) (Note: I debated adding all derivative markets (Halves, props, futures) but like to think that’s the value seeker in us all speaking out not true degenerate behavior) Football (Possible 5 points) NFL CFL NCAA Arena Football Other Basketball (Possible 4 points) NBA Euro Baskets NCAA Other Baseball (Possible 6 points) MLB NCAA Korean League Mexican League Japanese League Other Soccer (Possible 8 points) MLS EPL Serie A Bundesliga La Liga Europa UCL Other Hockey (Possible 3 points) NHL KHL Other Tennis (Possible 3 points) WTA ATP Challenger Golf (Possible 3 points) PGA LPGA Other Fighting (Possible 2 points) MMA Boxing Horse Racing (possible 7 points) Triple Crown Races Breeders Cup Saratoga, Del Mar, or Santa Anita Any other thoroughbred tracks Quarter Horses (LA Downs, Los Alamitos, etc) Sigma Derby Harness Racing Auto Racing (possible 4 points) NASCAR Indy Car Formula 1 Other Other Sports (Add 2 points for any of these you sickos) 26 possible Badminton...
Quest to Legalize
posted by Todd
Single game wagering is currently illegal in 49 states. The time to legalize our unofficial national past time is now. Gambling on sports has come under negative scrutiny recently amid match fixing allegations in tennis. The biggest misconception circulated by those against legalization is that creating a regulated environment somehow leads to more impropriety. This thought process is ridiculous and preposterous given that regulation of sports gambling in the States allows for better monitoring and policing like we have in other countries around the world. Most match fixing scandals are identified as a byproduct of bookmakers working directly with law enforcement. I had the chance to talk to a prominent tennis trader David Pentland from Corals earlier this week. Corals has a full list of policies and procedures in place to identify harmful irregularities in the integrity of betting markets. The majority of the matches we report are at the lowest level of the game (ITF). At this level there a number of players whom we will not price up, due to numerous irregular betting patterns on previous matches involving these players. This is the first step in protecting ourselves against corruption, unfortunately it is not just a few isolated players. If a game is flagged up as being potentially suspicious, we will immediately cease betting on that match, and collate as much data as we can regarding the match and the customers that have bet on the match. We will then withhold payment pending a full inquiry. After the data is collated (the data will include; markets affected, clients, bets, players, reasons for suspicion and any additional comments). A spreadsheet will then be sent to our compliance manager who will then forward the relevant information on to the Tennis Integrity Unit (Tennis Anti-Corruption...
Superbowl Wagering
posted by Todd
Earlier on Wednesday the American Gaming Association released their statement on how much money they believed would be wagered on Superbowl 50. The amounts are absolutely staggering not just in total but how much of this takes place illegally. Here’s their complete press released with an explanation on how they arrived at their estimates. Washington, DC – According to an estimate released today by the American Gaming Association (AGA), Americans will bet $4.2 billion on Super Bowl 50 between the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, up eight percent over last year. Nearly 97 percent of those bets — $4.1 billion worth — will be wagered illegally, standing in stark contrast to the approximately $115 million bet legally on the New England Patriots-Seattle Seahawks game last year. In fact, the illegal market is 35 times greater than the legal marketplace. INFOGRAPHIC: Americans to Bet $4.2B on Super Bowl 50 “As Americans celebrate a milestone Super Bowl, they’ll also bet a record amount on the Big Game,” said Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the AGA. “Just like football, sports betting has never been more popular than it is today. The casino gaming industry is leading the conversation around a new approach to sports betting that enhances consumer protections, strengthens the integrity of games and recognizes fans’ desire for greater engagement with sports.” Overall, AGA’s estimate found that Americans wagered $149 billion on sports in 2015, up from nearly $145 billion in 2014. Before last January’s Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, AGA released its first-ever estimate predicting fans would wager $3.8 billion worth of illegal bets on the title game. Late last year, following months of study and deliberation, AGA’s Board of Directors issued a set of recommendations that marked a major shift in the industry’s approach to sports betting. AGA is building a broad...
Oddsmaker on the Committee...
posted by Todd
Every Tuesday in November we’re privy to the most hotly contested debate in college sports (no, not what Mizzou administrator will get canned today); what 4 teams are deserving of inclusion in the college football playoff? Thankfully most unveilings are dress rehearsals meant to incite riots among fan bases while giving journalists plenty of fodder for their columns. The main takeaway for me every single week is how does the committee really grade the “best” teams in the land: is it win/loss record? Is it quality wins? Is it game control? Is it style points? Unfortunately the answer is YES to all of the above yet we’re devoid of a truly reliable quantitative element factored into the equation like the BCS required. In order to create an equal playing field there needs to be that math guy balancing out the process among college football blue bloods and athletic directors. Who better than an oddsmaker to share his or her take on proper valuations of the best teams in the land. To better gauge sentiment among the college football community I turned to some of the most influential football writers and oddsmakers to get their thoughts on the idea. “There is NO doubt in my mind that an oddsmaker would be a great addition to the College Football Playoff Committee, I’ve been saying that for several years. There is a bias in college football, especially with a committee whose average age is 57 after decades of being exposed to the bigger “brands” and older “styles” of football,” Peter Burns, SEC Network anchor, said. The list of current committee members reads the following: Jeff Long – Vice Chancellor and Athletic Director University of Arkansas Barray Alvarez – Director of Athletics Wisconsin (Former head football coach) Mike...
Press Release
posted by Todd
This press release was made public on October 3rd courtesy of the AGA Washington, DC – As the NFL prepares to host a slate of games in London beginning tomorrow, the American Gaming Association (AGA) is lauding the league for playing games in a city and country where legal sports betting on NFL games takes place in neighborhoods surrounding the playing field and is only growing in popularity. The New York Jets play the Miami Dolphins tomorrow, while the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars square off on October 25 and the Detroit Lions take on the Kansas City Chiefs on November 1. The NFL has played at least one game per season in London since 2007. Legal sports betting and NFL games co-exist so well – and promote the integrity of the games – that the NFL is considering placing a franchise in London. NFL.com reported yesterday that the league is making strides in locating a franchise in the city by 2022. “We applaud the NFL’s willingness to once again host games in a city where betting on sports is a national pastime and a mainstream form of entertainment,” said Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the AGA. “While sports fans across the United States are also betting on these games – largely illegally because of an outdated and failing law – millions of dollars will be bet in London on the NFL games in a legal, regulated and safe manner.” According to an ESPN report last season before the NFL hosted three games in London, “more than 30 gambling parlors in the Wembley Park area, where the stadium is located,” expected to “receive up to a 100 percent increase in the amount wagered on the NFL games played at Wembley Stadium compared to those played in the U.S.” Sports fans will...
Big Score
posted by Todd
Gamblers are always after the big score. There’s nothing sexy about grinding out small wins for recreational bettors. I saw and witnessed it first hand in the casino business; players with million dollar credit lines didn’t care if they won or lost; they wanted that monumental run giving them a story they could tell their friends and colleagues for years. Over the weekend one sports bettor at Betonline had all his dreams come true with a $250 investment on a 21 team parlay get him back north of $145k!!! Let’s be honest, a lot of us will bet sports for an eternity and never hit an 8 teamer so you have to appreciate a guy that appeased the gambling gods for a magical payday. “If the record-setting beatdown our players handed us wasn’t bad enough, one player capped off his 21-team mostly chalk parlay last night as the Packers money-line was his final leg. His $250 21-teamer cashed for a $145,205 score. I thought, well maybe we were able to get some of that $145K back with a hedge on the Chiefs. Nope, no hedge – he had the balls to let it all ride on Green Bay straight-up,” – Dave Mason from BOL told me on the improbable hit. Let’s just say this isn’t a long term investment strategy I’d suggest for anyone but for one lucky bettor he caught magic in a bottle for one...
Playing for keeps
posted by Todd
They come from near and far to make it big under the bright lights. Whether it’s the smallest towns in the heart of the south, the suburbs of America’s heartland, or the biggest metropolises dotting the Atlantic seaboard something in the air beckons them to leave their friendly surroundings to chase the dream. Individual talents are diverse but the goal remains the same; coming to Vegas to play in the big leagues where the paychecks dwarf anything they ever thought possible. No, I’m not talking about the allure of becoming a professional athlete but rather about the beautiful coeds intent on using their finely manicured bodies, perfectly sculpted physiques, and flirtatious personalities to capitalize on the lucrative 6 month window that is the Vegas pool season. I may or may not have had this brainstorm one night earlier this summer as Calvin Harris was finishing up his set at Wet Republic while a Wednesday night swim started to wind down. When you think about it in a sports context, life as a bottle girl at the biggest day clubs in Sin City is a lot like being a NFL running back. The offseason is all about working yourself into peak physical condition so your body can take the inevitable pounding knowing that busting your ass for 6 months off the field will eventually lead to massive paydays. Not only are both commodities (running backs and bottle girls) highly sought after during physical peaks, both can see their talent dissipate in the blink of an eye…yes, even at the running back position. “Bringing them into camp is always a crapshoot, you never know which one will be able to make it through an entire season. There’s always someone just as determined waiting in the wings...
Playoff Odds
posted by Todd
We’re getting close…so close we can taste the college football season just a few weeks away. Inevitably discussion leading up to the season focuses on the 4 teams that will find their way into the playoff (yes 4 teams, I’m not having that 8 team discussion here and now). Offshore sportsbook 5Dimes has followed the lead of Bovada and hung Yes/No props on 23 teams that most believe will be vying for college football supremacy. Ohio St remains the only program favored to get into the playoff and with good reason. Even Alabama and TCU, favorites to win their respective conferences, are listed as mild underdogs to be selected for the postseason given rugged league schedules capable of derailing title dreams. While the markets are indeed high hold / low limit offerings, value for most schools exists on betting the “No” prices. So much needs to go right during the year for these schools to punch their tickets to the postseason that 1 loss easily derails the delusions of grandeur. NCAA Division I – College Football Playoff Thu 9/3 28101 Ohio State makes 4 team playoff -230 12:00PM 28102 Not selected for 4 team playoff +170 Thu 9/3 28103 Alabama makes 4 team playoff +190 12:00PM 28104 Not selected for 4 team playoff -270 Thu 9/3 28105 TCU makes 4 team playoff +190 12:00PM 28106 Not selected for 4 team playoff -270 Thu 9/3 28107 Auburn makes 4 team playoff +350 12:00PM 28108 Not selected for 4 team playoff -530 Thu 9/3 28109 USC makes 4 team playoff +340 12:00PM 28110 Not selected for 4 team playoff -510 Thu 9/3 28111 Florida State makes 4 team playoff +315 12:00PM 28112 Not selected for 4 team playoff -445 Thu 9/3 28113 Oregon makes 4 team playoff +400 12:00PM 28114 Not selected for 4 team playoff -600 Thu 9/3 28115 Baylor...
Football Contests
posted by Todd
Football season in Las Vegas has become synonymous with “contest season.” The most coveted football crown for handicappers still remains the Westgate Supercontest, the gold standard for pigskin prognosticators but the contest landscape offers more options now than ever before. Added to that mix in recent years (and growing in reputation) is the Golden Nugget’s contest derivation that takes on a different format, still testing the mettle of the best handicappers but utilizing a head to head component while also incorporating college football in the mix. However those aren’t the only 2 contests that will be offered around town this football season. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE SUPERCONTEST The 2015 SuperContest at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook expects to exceed last year’s record 1,403 entries that made the total prize pool worth more than $2 million to those finishing among the Top 30 places. At $1,500 per entry, the SuperContest has been known since its inception as the foremost NFL handicapping contest in the world, with last year’s winner taking home a record $740,000 for picking winners at an insane 76 percent clip. Contestants in 2015 shouldn’t be intimidated by the winner’s ridiculous performance, instead focusing on the more attainable 62% it took to place in the money last year (I say more attainable with a grain of salt, still a very difficult level to reach). There is talk of an expanded prize pool for 2015 depending on the final number of entrants but those details won’t be disclosed until much later this summer. Fast forward to 2015, and the SuperBook is hoping to hit at least 1,900 entries thanks to increased marketing efforts and social media buzz which would award more than $1 million to the winner for the first time...
POTUS 2016
posted by Todd
Hey look, you can bet on the next president of the US at Bovada! Unfortunately those looking to get down on this market in Nevada will be disappointed because wagering on federal elections has yet to be approved by the gaming control board. As always there are a few serious names atop the leaderboard but also a handful of media personalities that have as much chance of landing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue as I do. Remember limits on these props are for low limits and designed more for entertainment purposes than get rich quick opportunities. However if someone knows about George Clooney’s status let me know, a $10 spot at 150-1 will buy me an extra drink or 2 at Encore Beach Club. 2016 US Presidential Election – Next President of the United States of America Hillary Clinton 11/10 Jeb Bush 5/1 Marco Rubio 9/1 Scott Walker 9/1 Rand Paul 18/1 Chris Christie 20/1 Elizabeth Warren 20/1 Ted Cruz 33/1 Andrew Cuomo 33/1 Martin OMalley 33/1 John Kasich 33/1 Joe Biden 40/1 Paul Ryan 50/1 Kirsten Gillibrand 50/1 Bobby Jindal 50/1 Ben Carson 50/1 Jim Webb 50/1 Mark Warner 66/1 Rick Santorum 66/1 Susana Martinez 66/1 Rahm Emanuel 66/1 Rob Portman 75/1 Condoleeza Rice 75/1 Deval Patrick 75/1 Michael Bloomberg 75/1 Bob McDonnell 75/1 Donald Trump 75/1 Al Gore 100/1 George Clooney 150/1 Michelle Obama 150/1 2016 US Presidential Election – Winning Party Democratic Party -180 (5/9) Republican Party +150 ...
Perfect Bedfellows
posted by Todd
We see it all the time in international sports; major franchises building advertising partnerships with betting houses. They’re the kind of mutually beneficial relationships that make a world of sense with similar demographics but really haven’t had a place in American sports…until now. William Hill US has become the official sports book of the Las Vegas Outlaws. For those wondering exactly who the Outlaws are, it’s a fair question; they’re the Vegas based Arena football expansion franchise, owned and operated by non other than former member of Motley Crue and business mogul Vince Neil. “You will see the William Hill logo on the Outlaws’ jerseys and on the dasherboards. Adults attending the game can sign up for the William Hill Mobile Sports app in the Thomas & Mack concourse and then are immediately able to wager on our full sports menu – including futures, pre-game lines, and InPlay for the Outlaws,” Michael Grodksy, director of marketing for William Hill told me. Talk about the kind of business partnership that would send chills down the spine of Roger Goodell! People betting on sports, a behavior directly embraced by the league and franchise?! Man, we should condemn everyone in and around Arena football for ruining the purity we’ve all come to expect in our athletic competitions. While Arena Football is still very much an emerging niche market in the American Sports landscape, the opportunities are endless for a league and franchise able to build a symbiotic relationship with an actual gambling entity to drive fan interest, viewership, and potentially long term brand loyalty. The Outlaws and William Hill aren’t quite at the same level yet as European Sportsbooks with international football clubs where physical betting shops exist within major stadiums. I spent time studying overseas at...
Cosart Games
posted by Todd
Current Miami Marlins Jarred Cosart probably bet on sports. I mean I’m pretty confident he definitely did but until that information is made public I’ll error on the side of caution. Anyone with a pulse who spent time on social media yesterday saw the same details reported in different ways from highly reputable media outlets. I’m here to say that unless Cosart bet on baseball, we actually don’t have a story at all. It is not against MLB rules for players to legally bet on other sports. — David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) March 25, 2015 During my time behind the counter at Caesars Palace I saw plenty of high profile faces, specifically athletes, walk to the counter to place bets. Athletes from all different sports came to our book during busy events betting everything from the ponies to the Superbowl to major prize fights. Let me be clear in heading off the rumors before they start; not a single time did an active athlete bet a sport with which he or she had an intimate connection under my watch. Had this taken place, myself along with my colleagues, would have had the responsibility to report said incident to the gambling control board. Why is this relevant you ask? Young males, when given wealth (and not much direction in how to spend it) combined with a competitive drive to test themselves will always gravitate towards games of chance. Funny how that works when athletes play cards, roll dice, or sit at BJ tables that we somehow become surprised when they elect to put a little skin in the game during March Madness or the football season. Last I checked backdoor poker games aren’t exactly the most legal of recreational pursuits either. Before we get into...