UFC FN85 Mir vs. Hunt: Bitzers* barking in Brisbane All fight analysis provided by GambLou Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 185. This week’s fight card is taking place down under in Australia and the international flavor of these fights has us hankering for hounds. Our early release for UFC FN85 is a “styles make fights’ confrontation that will be featured on the Fox Sports 1 segment of the preliminary bouts. Smith -160 vs. Nakai +140 Leslie Smith is a journeyman fighter at best. She beat up on a mannequin in Jessamyn Duke before getting her ear blown off in her last bout against Jessica Eye which was over a year ago. Smith is limited in every fighting factor except for the fact that she will own a more complete stand up arsenal than her opponent in this bout. She faces an anvil in Nakai that is a full 8” shorter that she as well Nakai’s first name is not Jess. Smith will do all she can to stick and move, feint and pepper the shorter Nakai with tapping strikes in order to allow the accumulation of persistent pops and fifteen minutes of fighting wear down the grappler and eventually send her to stupid street. Smith will own advantage as long as this fight stays standing. If Nakai was 2” taller she’d be a square. The Japanese fighter must utilize her sawed-off physique to allow her to work her way in close, smother Smith and take this fight to the floor. Limiting Smith’s length, striking advantage and space is mandatory for Nakai. Crowding the longer thinner Smith is certain to be the plan for Nakai for she and her corner understand that they must effectively forge their way inside the taller opponent, force her to...

UFC FN 83 Cowboy Cerrone vs. Cowboy Oliveira: Which Poke get choked? All analysis provided by GambLou Welcome fight Enthusiasts. Today’s UFC presentation from Pittsburgh offers a plethora of pups with potential to payout. Let’s muse for mongrel’s…. UFC 2016:   8-10 + $91.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Sarafian -155 vs. Bamgbose +145 Sarafian has been off for over a year and gives away length, size, and speed to the younger and more explosive underdog. We feel mucho improvement is coming from Oluwale off his last fight (his first in the UFC). Bounce time Bamgbose +145 (half) Bermudez -345 vs. Kawajiri +315 Dennis Bermudez is an excellent wrestler with decent power and super cardio however the one thing all those tremendous features do not make up for is a porcelain beak. When hit on the point Bermudez busts. Kawajiri enters the longer, taller guy which for Bermudez is nothing new but the feeling here is that Kawajiri can compete with Dennis anywhere this fight goes. Moreover we feel that Kawajiri may in fact try to drag Dennis to the mat and maul him from top position. Both men enter in desperation mode yet while this fight appears to be a set up for Bermudez we feel quite otherwise. Kawajiri +315 (half) Garbrandt -345 vs. Mendes +315 Cody Garbrandt is a talented well rounded MMA fighter that has more improvements to make on the mat than standing. He’ll enter this one after a late fighter switch that now...

UFC Fox Johnson vs. Bader: Tap-out on the Turnpike All fight analysis provided by Gamblou Welcome UFC Enthusiasts. Today’s fight card features some pretty compelling fights for the followers like us that fancy Fido. We’ve had a slow start managing mongrels in 2016 but our game is about a consistent quest to uncover value in the UFC so the slow start concerns us not. We’ll not attempt to get it all back today by overreaching rather we understand that the 2016 UFC campaign has just begun so today we look to take home some take home and reduce our negative balance and create monumental momentum as we head into February while there remains numerous fight cards ahead of us. A steady hand, patience and consistency is what we are all about as we undergo dynamic Due Diligence, remain supremely Selective in determining what releases we make each Saturday there is a UFC fight card. Here’s the tail wagers we’ll talk about today: UFC 2016: 2-6 <340.00> -Let’s Fight- Brown -120 vs. Dwyer +100 We like Dwyer’s length but have questions about his cardio and chin. We know little about his opponent Randy Brown expect that he is strong where Dwyer is weak….the beak. We’ll read the line here as we trust our amigo Nick Kalikas when he sets numbers for these fights and Brown opened up -230 and we can get him now -125 (as of this writing). We’ll value grab here with our only non-canine of the card. Brown -120 Northcutt -280 vs. Barberena +230 Sage Northcutt is the UFC’s shiny new toy. He plays the part with well with a chiseled physique, a magnetic smile and superior skills. The only thing we have yet to see from Super Sage is if he...

UFC 195 Lawler vs. Condit: Welterweight’s wager war All analysis provided by GambLou Welcome fight Enthusiasts to 2016. In the coming year we’re committed to refining our releases and waging our own war against both the linemakers and the matchmakers when it comes to the UFC for as the years wear on both grow more accomplished at their craft. Improvements in fighting acumen by the fighters themselves, keener matchmaking by the organization and more competitive money lines set by the ‘Makers force us to improve our abilities if we are to remain profitable in ‘16. In the UFC (and in all wagering pursuits) if one remains constant in an ever evolving gaming arena then one is bound to be beat down. Therefore…..we’ll commit to undertaking more comprehensive Due Diligence, we’ll work on remaining supremely Selective and as always we’ll manage profitability precisely.   With these basic fundamentals in focus we now turn to our passion….MMA and specifically UFC 195 and the UFC in 2016. UFC 2015: 86-108-2 + $1,446.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Westcott -165 vs. Garcia +145 While Westcott may look the part we believe wagering on fighters requires more than handicapping how they appear. Westcott brings 110% for the first 4:30 of a fight then tends to gas. His blueprint is to submit and make no mistake about it Garcia’s submission D is somewhat suspect. That said if we can get Garcia into round two then his cardio, his power, and his stand up could...

UFC 194 Aldo vs. McGregor: When Irish eyes are swollen Fight analysis provided by Gamblou There’s our hint for today’s fight card Enthusiasts. We love to side with ugly, mangy, stray, unwanted mongrels and have been prudent in our UFC releases in the past. Today we view this talent laden fight card as a major challenge insofar as we believe there is value to be obtained and it is our role to diagnose opportunity, obtain said value with the goal being to enhance our bottom line. Let’s see how today’s handicapping fares…. UFC 2015: 81-97-2 + $1,931.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Aldo -115 vs. McGregor -105 Jose Aldo is giving up some height, a bit of reach and a year to the loudmouthed, confident challenger in his title defense tonight. While we always acknowledge the advantages an understanding of the raw numbers in a fight of this magnitude (and almost all the fights on tonight’s slate) we also must employ our most trusted tool in handicapping fights and that is the 40 plus years of experience and basic ‘gut feel’ we’ve acquired. Here’s what our instinct tells us: McGregor is a forward pressing, aggressive lethal striker. As a southpaw he sports tremendous power with his straight left hand which he utilizes kicks and footwork to employ. He also sports a confidence and cockiness found only in young athletes who’ve meteorically shot to the top of their profession in short time, then begin to trust and believe...

UFC 193 Rousey vs. Holm: Armbar in Australia All fight analysis provided by Gamblou Good Saturday fight Enthusiasts. Our last fight blog produced a poor result as we dove into dogs and got duped! That said, we do what we do and today’s card from Melbourne is sure to produce a few mangy mutts….our job as we understand it is to deliver live dogs so let’s go hunting for value. Vaculik -110 vs. Martinez -110 Vaculik is 1-2 in the UFC while Martinez is 0-4. This appears to be a fight between a couple of cans but upon closer look we see a fight that will be determined by where it takes place. Vaculik is a high paced grinder who will try to get Martinez to the mat for a maul. Vaculik will have a distinct edge on the floor and that is where he intends to take this fight. Martinez returns to the 125 weight class which we feel will be an advantage for him. Danny takes this fight on a full training camp which we feel is important. He’ll own sizable advantages on the feet where his striking and power will overwhelm the Aussie if this one does not get to the floor. Which way do we go? Martinez -110 Struve -135 vs. Rosholt +115 Struve’s size and length will be an issue for the stubby wrestler for if this is a standing affair we believe it will be a long night for Rosholt. Struve’s striking and power are what will trouble the American here if he can’t get ‘up close and personal’ with the skyscraper and take him to the floor for some fun. Struve’s porcelain chin will be hard for Rosholt to touch standing but from top position on the...

Good day fight Enthusiasts. Today’s UFC card offers a smorgasbord of fight delights. Ladies in two different divisions will duke it out, a couple of hammering Heavyweight’s will throw down, four furious flyweight’s will fracas and a couple veteran light heavy’s will look to lower each other’s lights. Here’s what we’ve come up with in tonight’s hunt for hounds from Houston. All fight Analysis courtesy of GambLou All lines courtesy of CRIS at time of post UFC 2015: 71-80-1 + $ 2,001.00 (All GambLou.com UFC releases are understood to be for a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Pettis -195 vs. Cariaso +165 It’s going to take more than one’s last name to beat the veteran Cariaso. Cariaso’s last two fights against DJ and Henry Cedujo provide him the hunger and solidify his resume to be considered at least on par with the younger, longer Pettis who is stepping way up in competition tonight. We’ll have to see Sergio beat a real MMA fighter before we automatically buy into the hype. Cariaso + 165 (half) Tumenov -270 vs. Jouban +225 Tumenov is an accomplished, well rounded MMA fighter. He will have decent advantage if he can keep this a standing fight. Tumenov’s precision striking, cardio and power are the reasons he is favored in this spot. Jouban though the older fighter will arrive to the Octagon the much taller, larger, thicker fighter tonight. Jouban is taking a step up in class and competition with this fight but we feel his size and power may test the...

UFC 191 Johnson vs. Dodson: Mighty Mouse vs. the Magician Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 191. We’ve uncovered what we believe are a few putrid pups patrolling Paradise road in Las Vegas today. Let’s hope these mangy mongrels are up to the task at hand tonight….delivering dog deposits. UFC 2015:  65-77       + $1,668.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). Let’s make note of a couple GambLou.com early releases: On 8-8-15 (Twitter) we advised taking a firm position on Paul Felder -245 claiming that by fight time his price would be -475 or higher. His opponent Ross Pearson seems to be hand chosen to face Felder insomuch as he is older than his age in fight years, is somewhat a plodding fighter, is surely slower and arrives with a breakable beak.   We feel the matchmakers set this fight to get Felder back in the win column in order to capitalize on his drawing power. As of this writing Felder is -450 and may well be at our predicted price by the time the parlay patrons are done playing this fight. Felder now must accomplish his goal of winning the fight but those that followed our advice on the 8th own dynamic market advantage into today’s bout. It’s all about value. “Price is what you pay….value is what you get.” Warren Buffett Also released yesterday just after weigh-ins was Ron Stallings -165.  While Stallings has many areas of fight improvement he is in a decent spot here. His opponent, Joe Riggs is a...

Searching for strays in Saskatoon Welcome fight Enthusiasts to today’s UFC card from Canada. We are fresh and as ready to fire as some of the mangy mutts we have our eye on today so let’s get busy. All Fight analysis provided by Gamblou (click here to follow him on twitter) UFC 2015: 61-74 + $1,427.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Silverio -245 vs. Campbell +225 Silverio enters off a devastating TKO loss albeit at the hands of Magomedov but it’s the frame of mind as he returns against a capable striker that we concern ourselves with. Campbell is a striker who if he can keep Silverio at distance will test the will and chin of the Chalk. Silverio’s task will be to get inside and take Campbell (who has less than average takedown D and grappling skills) to the mat. The fighter that dictates pace and position will own advantage in this bout. Silverio opened a fair -160 and has been bet up to current pricing. We will ‘Swing it Easy’ with the hound that we trust has worked on his take down D (something a fighter can improve upon) as he tries to bust the Brazilian’s beak (something a fighter can do nothing about). Campbell +225 (half) Beal -165 vs. Kelades +145 This is a fight we discussed with Morency on MMA Meltdown Radio Tuesday night and honestly we are on an island with this position it seems. Beal surely looks the part of a...

UFC FN73 Teixeira vs. St. Preux: Tennessee Tapout All fight analysis provided by @Gamblou Welcome fight Enthusiasts. The UFC fight card from Nashville seems steeped with shepherds so in keeping with our ‘Swing it Easy’ approach, we’ll dive deep with dirty dogs. Tonight we’ll be hunting for hounds marauding Music City like a mastiff in the trash at Jack’s BBQ. A real surprise eh? UFC 2015: 57-70 + $1,217.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Kakai -115 vs. Saenz +105 The opening fight on the Fox preliminary card features a wrestler/grappler in Saenz against a relatively one dimensional striker in Kakai. Kakai has been put on the mat in prior bouts so we feel this sets up well for Saenz. Frankie opened -130 and the traffic has come in on the Swede whose had to travel into the USA for this opportunity. We’ll grab some value and take the higher paced more well-rounded fighter in this one as we mentioned on MMA Meltdown Radio this week….. Saenz +105 McMann -260 vs. Nunes +240 We chuckle at ‘expert’ fight prognosticators claiming the scale for McMann was wrong yet no other fighters from yesterday’s weigh-ins had issue with their announced weight. Sara McMann is a very capable fighter yet the distraction from missing weight coupled with the raw numbers that display disadvantage for doing so empowered us take a poke at Nunes +220 (half) post their weigh-in. Nunes is a fierce fighter who may own early advantage provided she can...

Welcome fight Enthusiasts. Tonight’s UFC slate from Rio offers interesting match-ups. There was a time not so long ago in the UFC that Brazilians fighting in Brazil were close to unbeatable as they were usually favored, fought furiously and at the end of most fights had their hands raised. Lately (and many may speculate as to why) this advantage has been eroded. Whether it is competition addressing the dominance of Jiu-Jitsu, stringent testing, or simply better matchmaking the results speak for themselves. As we view tonight’s card we see a combination of match-ups, matchmaking and styles that indicate it could be a big night for the Brazilians…except for a rowdy rumble or so. It happens that most of our selections today were released either on MMA Meltdown Radio Tuesday with Gabriel Morency or via Twitter this week as we attempted to grab line value… All fight analysis courtesy of Gamblou UFC 2015: 54-68 + $1,009.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Vamos Lutar-* Hester -155 vs. Miranda +145 Hester is the more complete fighter but his fight IQ, cardio and defense are all holes in his game. We believe also that the weight cut may have been tough for he missed slightly which indicates a potentially tough travel to Brazil and certain distraction if even for an hour. If Hester uses his mind he’ll forget pride and take Miranda to the floor and make this a boring maul on the mat. Miranda (a Brazilian) has a granite chin, is...

UFC Fox 16: Dillashaw vs. Barao II: Omaplatas on Oak Street Fight analysis provided by @Gamblou Welcome fight Enthusiasts to Dillashaw vs. Barao II. Recent fight cards have featured more favorites than your local Baskin Robbins outlet and our recent results reflect it. However, we are a stubborn lot and believe deeply in our process so with a touch of ‘gut feel’ today we will back off less and begin to get back to the ‘Swing it Easy’ approach that has served us so well. We believe we’ve spotted some spaniels on today’s card so let’s trust we have diagnosed a few horrid hounds. Most of today’s releases were publicized Tuesday night on MMA Meltdown Radio with Gabriel Morency. We expressed then that they were ‘pending weigh-ins’. We do not always publicize the leans we broadcast on his show but in today’s case we’ll use most of what we liked Tuesday. We were able to get enhanced pricing playing these positions yesterday post weigh-ins but we’ll use current pricing from today. Please note: unless we release a position early with a price we will always work with current pricing so it sometimes pays to keep an eye on our twitter feeds to obtain at least what we believe will be market edge…. UFC 2015: 52-66 + $999.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Phillips -155 vs. Duke +145 Phillips is 0-2 and the pundits are wagering on her like they’ve already seen the fight. Our concern is that they...