Written by Rob Perez (follow him on twitter @world_wide_wob) Enjoy the article? Look for more NBA content on his blog There’s no reason to sugarcoat the upcoming Olympic basketball tournament. Much like the NBA, there are the team’s that can actually win the crown and others just there for the experience. TIER FOUR (THE BASEMENT)   12. China Projected Starting Lineup: PG: Liu Wei SG: Sun Yue SF: Zhu Fangyu PF: Yi Jianlan C: Wang Zhizhi When you have to double check the spelling of 3 out of 5 names in a team’s starting roster because you’ve never heard of them before, you know the team is going to struggle to win games. Let’s be honest, this team plays with a ton of heart, but, they are simply outclassed talent-wise at every position. China does have a front court with extensive NBA experience in Yi Jianlan and Wang Zhizhi … but, coming into the game when your team is up/down by 30 in the 4th quarter doesn’t count as quality minutes. China will be able to bang around a bit with some of the less experienced, smaller teams as they have EIGHT players on their roster listed at 6’7” or TALLER including 7’3” Zhang Zhaoxu … but, these are the countrymen who let JR Smith drain FOURTNEEN three-pointers and drop 60 points in ONE game.    http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2012/02/jr-smith-scored-60-points-hit-14-threes-in-a-chinese-playoff-game/ If pride counted as points in basketball, China and their loyal fan base would certainly have a leg up on the rest of the competition. However, according to the rules of basketball, it doesn’t – and this team will struggle to score 60 points every single game. Doesn’t fare well for a team that can’t play defense either.   11. Tunisia Projected Starting Lineup: PG: Mourad El-Mabrouk SG:...

People love to share a bad beat story with their fellow gamblers. We have full intentions of bringing back the weekly moose report this fall but to whet our appetite during down season, it made sense to let everyone use this space for therapy and catharsis. Enjoy (but if it brings back a flood of bad memories, I apologize in advance) To protect the identity of those involved, names have been removed however a special thank you to those who submitted their responses because anyone around the business of gambling feels your pain. Personal Account 1: Details of this are sketchy at best but Ill never forget stupid feeling of buying something new to replace something you just broke on purpose. I remember a Duke game back in the mid 2000s. My buddy and I were killin our bookie all week. By the time the friday night game came around we decided to just lay it all on the line. We were sure of this Duke game. They had been covering for us all season. We both put 20 units on the game. This was the biggest bet I ever made on College basketball. The game was going along great and Duke had the lead by more than 10 a couple different times. I don’t remember the exact line but its sort of irrelevant to the story you know Im about to tell. As usual the waning minutes of a basketball game things get tight. Back and forth time seems to stand still. Its down to the last 30 seconds and we are covering then we arent. So close….It comes down to the last second shot and we are covering by 3 points. They dribble down step up to the 3 point line this guy plants and gets ready to hurl a 3 pointer that I’m 100% sure is sending...

We talk all the time about numbers and value as it pertains to sports betting. For a few fleeting minutes Sunday morning, I decided to step outside the realm of the industry and explore the correlation between major league baseball payrolls and wins from 2002 to 2011.  Some of the results you’ll find a bit shocking yet there are obvious examples (like the Yankees) where spending money has led to a direct correlation in franchise success.  Conversely there are teams like the Mariners who have won 217 less games over that span so they’re avg cost per win places them in the top 5 and clearly doesn’t yield great return on investment.  The 2 most impressive teams on this list? The Miami Marlins (2003) and St Louis Cardinals (2011) who won World Series championships within the 10 year window without eclipsing the $1M threshold in payroll cost per win. Between 2002 and 2011, there were 80 possible postseason births.  Of those 80, 48 of them (60%) were gobbled up by teams who paid greater than $1M in player’s salary per win.  It’s not shocking that the best “value” play during this time is the Minnesota Twins who have made the postseason 6 out of a possible 10 times despite only paying $778k for each of their 865 regular season wins. What’s the takeaway from this as a sports gambler you ask?  The truth is value comes in all shapes and sizes so figuring out what your goals and objectives are upon entering a season makes setting realistic expectations easier.  Treat your bankroll like a major league franchise with the understanding there are very few Yankee type bettors who can cover up mistakes by throwing money at a problem. Most bettors operate like small market teams meaning...

Everyone that bets sports, no matter the level of expertise, feels the sting of a bad beat from time to time.  Around here, we like to call them moosers because of a term that had its origin in the glory day of the covers.com posting forum.  During football we’ll bring back the weekly moose report but for now we’d like you to share your best stories by emailing us at todd@toddstake.com.  Next week we’ll post the best submissions for everyone to read and iff you can find video, definitely include that as well.  If we can’t laugh at our own misfortune, well then we’re taking sports betting way too...

  Written by Justin Zovas This past February, amidst the media frenzy that is Super Bowl week, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell revealed a schedule change that made gamblers and fans alike rejoice.  The upcoming 2012 football season will feature an increase in Thursday night football games which of course creates another stand alone football betting opportunity.  In addition to the previously abbreviated Thursday options, NFL network will be airing Thursday night football games beginning in week 2.  With the new schedule make-up, every team will be given the opportunity to showcase their talents (or lack thereof) under the lights in front of a national audience.  More prime-time football will obviously makes gamblers happy because they’ll find an edge to exploit the shortened week. There is a reason NFL games are only played once a week and it boils down to the rigorous demands of the sport.  Asking a team to play on just three days’ rest is a demanding task given the normal recovery from both the mental and physical side.  The quick turnaround makes it difficult for players to rebound from their previous game and get adequate time for treatments and preparation.  Toss nagging  injuries and long distance travel into the equation and suddenly the road weary side faces a rather steep challenge when facing superior competition. With these factors in mind, here are some Thursday night trends to be aware of heading into the 2012 season: Home teams on Thursday nights after both teams played the previous Sunday are 55-40-2 ATS since 1989.  When the home team is also favored under the same conditions, the favorite is 37-18-2 ATS.  That means betting Thursday night home favorites has been successful 67.3% of the time and from my vantage point the logic here is relatively simple:  Not...

With the American League already complete, what would leaving a job half finished say about me if I neglected the NL?  In the interest of being concise and precise we’ll get right to the point while assessing the senior circuit and the playoff prospects for some unlikely contenders. 16) Houston Astros I really struggled with who to place into this dubious distinction of dead last so congrats to the Astros for top billing. The future might look bright (eventually) with an underrated pitching staff yet this season is definitely a lost cause.  At least Texans camp opens in only a few weeks right? 15) Chicago Cubs Anyone remember that old Bugs Bunny cartoon where he plays every position? If Anthony Rizzo can do that, I’m definitely open to moving the lovable losers up my list.  There are a few talented young hitters that will come up through the ranks but it’s only going to get worse on the north side when Dempster and Garza are dealt for prospects. 14) Colorado Rockies Jeremy Guthrie is this team’s ace…no, I didn’t stutter before marking that down he really is. I know Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, and Cargo are the names for the future however the future on Blake Street isn’t this summer. 13) San Diego Padres The reason I have this team slightly ahead of their cellar dwelling compatriots is because they’re undervalued in the betting market.  If you’re looking for offense, this isn’t your team. However the young bounty they heisted from the Reds in the Mat Latos deal should pay dividends the next 75 games and at least allow them to be competitive. 12) Milwaukee Brewers I’m under the assumption both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are headed away from beer town USA. If...

With half the season already in the books, very little has been decided this baseball season. Sure, we know the Padres and Cubs are struggling but we didn’t need to watch 80+ games to be surprised by this development. Pittsburgh and the Chicago White Sox have to be the 2 biggest surprises in baseball when you consider the last time the Buccos finished above .500 I was 8 years old and before this year the last image I had of Robin Ventura impacting a playoff race was pinch hitting for the Bronx Bombers. There’s no pageantry or fanfare in assessing the field right now and I’ve broken the leagues into 2 posts starting with the American League today followed by the National League tomorrow. Rather than compile them league wide, I found it easier to break down by league so don’t get cute trying to match #3 in the AL with #3 in the NL given that it’s an apples to orange like comparison. Always keep in mind these are subject to change like everything in sports. American League 14) Seattle Mariners Quick word association: Ichiro, Felix, Supersonics, Sounders. Oops, this isn’t all baseball related and unfortunately for fans in the Emerald City they don’t see a lot of big league caliber ball from their home town team either. I’m not sure what Seattle is doing right now since there are a few nice pieces to build around yet they seem years away from competing. Eric Wedge needs moral victories now and reasons for optimism so in my opinion scoring runs at Safeco should be where they start. 13) Minnesota Twins There’s not much to say about the Twins at this point in the year other than the revolving door on the mound has...

Written by Chris Copeland (follow him on twitter @trackthebet) The public has clamored and yelled about blowing up the BCS for quite a while and we have our playoff. Well, we finally got our wish but with this new 4 team format, are we really going to have fewer questions and more answers? I’m still not quite sure college football got it right. Lets start with what we do know about this playoff system: 1) There will be a committee that determines the “most deserving” teams. However, what the hell does most deserving mean? I’m not sure I understand what that ambiguous terminology means and I’m willing to bet most of the committee members don’t either. 2) We know there will be a selection committee but who exactly is on this panel that determines the fate of an entire college football season? Names thrown around are primarily those of former coaches, AD’s, and journalists but color me skeptical. To say people with conference affiliations and ties to major universities won’t have bias is ludicrous. 3) There will be an overall strength of schedule component and conference champions will be given added consideration. Again, what does it mean when you consider last year UCLA was an upset (albeit monumental in stature) away from winning a power conference. It seems that it’s up to the committee’s discretion to weigh parts they deem fit when determining teams for the playoff, which ends up in a subjective discourse no different than scoring a boxing match or Olympic gymnastics. Taking a look at recent history, the top 4 “most deserving” teams is pretty gray and might stir an even greater debate than naming the 2 national title participants would have the past few years. 2011 One would assume the committee would have selected the #5 ranked Pac-12...

Written by Uncle Louie (follow him on twitter @gamblou) Chael Sonnen Sonnen’s strengths are his dynamic wresting abilities, his iron beard, heavy hands, and bad intentions; all weapons used to dominate his competition in the middleweight division. Those tools allowed Chael to wipe the floor with Silva in their first fight albeit only for 22 minutes and thirty some seconds before the guile of Silva submitted Sonnen ohhhhh so late in that fifth round. We have mentioned before our belief that world class wrestlers have the ability to deal with and overcome dominant Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighters in many instances and Chael Sonnen personifies these traits. Sonnen, a world class wrestler (and lousy speaker) surprised an under prepared Silva in their first fight with furious fists and numerous take downs which resulted in a dominant ground and pound game that honestly overwhelmed Silva (who fought with injured ribs). Since that fight, Sonnen has been publicly haranguing and needling Silva, his camp, his home town, and his country. Sonnen’s been unrelenting in his criticism of Anderson and his countrymen commenting that it was actually he Sonnen, that won their fight and that it’s his belt that Anderson is wearing (neither of which we argue with). This is clearly Chael’s way of trying to gain an edge and intimidate Silva as best he can. Remember enthusiasts, there is more to a fight than just punches, feints and conditioning. Since fighting began with cavemen there’s always a mental warfare component that manifests itself in fights of this magnitude. Many may feel that Sonnen is mastering the verbal warfare but what will such tactics really deliver? Will Chael really get Anderson to arrive so hot and bothered that he forgets his legendary calm and cool and reverts to some...

Written by @greenlight30 With July 4th behind us,  fireworks might be over here in the States but they’re just about to get going across the pond in the Wimbledon Semis. Four of the top five seeds remain with Rafael Nadal the lone top seed failing to get through after his loss to #100 Lukas Rosol back in round two. As a result what we’re left with are two fantastic matches that have their own interesting background and side story. Novak Djokovic (2012 Record: 41-6 ; Head-to-Head 12-14) Vs  Roger Federer (2012 Record: 46-7)  The first semifinal should prove to be quite the encounter between heavyweights. Djokovic enters the matchup having dropped only one set the entire tournament back in the third round vs. Radek Stepanek.  Joker displayed top form in dispatching countryman Viktor Troicki and then German Florian Mayer the last two rounds respectively and has shown no signs of slowing down. On the other side, Roger Federer was pushed to the limit by Julien Benneteau in round three and then in the next round called upon the trainer twice to help work out a troublesome back against veteran Xavier Malisse. Federer appeared much more comfortable in his dispatching of Mikhail Youzhny in the quarters. The level of intrigue in this match is extremely high as most experts believe (and rightfully so) this is Federer’s best surface and Djokovic’s worst giving the aging superstar his best  and maybe his only shot at a major in 2012. Novak disposed of Federer just last month in the French Open semi’s after falling behind a break early before cruising through a straight set victory. This match is going to come down to how Federer can hold up on the backhand side and if Roger can force Djokovic...

by Steve Caruso (follow him on twitter @RusoCaruso) When it comes to betting baseball, I think a lot of guys (including seasoned veterans) who bet other sports find it overwhelming at times. Baseball is such a numbers driven sport it’s easy to get bogged down and hung up on misleading stats that don’t correlate to handicapping success. You also need to factor in the translation from point spread to run line to moneyline and you have a headache waiting to happen for a lot of people. Personally, I think baseball can provide gifts throughout the year when bookmakers shift focus away from the diamond to other more heavily bet sports. Now, the way MLB lines are set up is with a heavy emphasis on who’s starting (pitching) for each team. We know everyone has their own method on what metrics are key in handicapping, but usually what you’ll find is everyone does things a little bit differently. In my opinion if you’re looking for something concrete, something often objective in a subjective sport to factor into your handicapping research then look no further than Umpire Strike %’s. Before you dispute my thesis think of a time when your favorite team (or any other team) you had money on lost a game because of an umpire, and no Buccos fans I’m not talking about the infamous Jerry Meals incident at Turner Field. Now that I’ve made your blood start to boil thinking about umpires lets think why we get so heated: Say it with me now, “they’re masked men with power to influence every game.” Officials are very instrumental to any sporting event and I’m not trying to bash them for making mistakes but the reality is we need every edge we can find as handicappers. I...

Click here to Listen 3HL Crew and I discuss the economic impact to Vegas of the newly minted 4 team playoff along with how Euro Cup is received in sportsbooks across the city