“Learn everything you can, anytime you can, from anyone you can, there will always come a time when you will be grateful you did.” ― Sarah Caldwell To find opportunity, you have to make calculated risks and take gambles. I want to say thank you to not only those at Caesars Entertainment for 6 tremendous years of an unsurpassed casino education but also show gratitude to those who went out of their way to visit the race and sports book or tweet insightful questions forcing me to re-examine the status quo.  Interactions through social media opened my eyes and created a forum where ideas could be easily exchanged while concepts were explored through tweets or blog posts. To everyone that stepped out of their comfort zone to introduce themselves at the counter I can’t put into words how much it meant to me and for members of the community that feel more comfortable absorbing the info, understand the value of everyone’s engagement shouldn’t be understated As I embark on a new adventure within the industry, I want to continue encouraging everyone to offer feedback (both positive and negative), question, and challenge everything in the way we cover the business of race and sports because it’s how we learn to improve the content you all find interesting.  I was truly moved last Friday after @beyondthebets put together a farewell address with so many people taking time out of their busy days to respond to with genuine emotion. I can only hope that all of you who make this blog a regular stop in your daily sports cycle continue to read our content here and also visit Outkick the Coverage and Don Best Sports to keep tabs on the industry in order to make informed betting...

by Adam Chemerinsky (follow him on twitter @gamblingkings ) Monday marks the start of tennis’ final Grand Slam for 2012. Betting tennis offers value throughout the year and the US OPEN is no different. Tackling the final major requires knowing the matchups, tendencies, and styles of play along with the unique features that differentiate play in Flushing Meadows from other venues. KNOW THE SURFACE: When looking at a match-up, it’s obviously important to know the head to head records between players but make sure to dig deeper and uncover how they fare against one another on North American hardcourt. If two players have not played since 2006 and their matchup was on clay back then, I’d put zero stock in that result predicting future outcomes. Keep in mind when a player hasn’t competed all summer since Wimbledon, he probably can’t be trusted on hard courts. My favorite website to utilize for tennis match history is matchstat.com for those looking to uncover hidden gems. KNOW THE CONDITIONS:  The US OPEN’s most unique (and notorious) feature to combat is mother nature. The wind needs to be checked and confirmed before each wager you place. Jim Courier, former player and now commentator, has said “I can tell you as a player that the wind in Ashe is the most inconsistent wind of the four major stadiums.” Four things to know about the wind and how it affects the match: 1) The wind plays a bigger factor in larger stadiums like Arther Ashe then it does on the outer courts. Always do your homework to know which court will play host to each match. 2) In windy conditions, try to avoid betting players with high ball tosses (i.e Sharapova, Berdych.) 3) Favor the more experienced player in the wind. (this holds especially...

Written by Justin Zovas “Teasing” the point spread in the NFL has always been an appealing wager for bettors. “You mean I can move the line in my favor? Easy money!” Yes, teasing the point spread appears attractive on paper but there is a reason sports books welcome teaser action when priced accordingly: the book is winning the majority of the time because bettors aim to tease favorites down under the assumption “Team A can’t lose.” Take your standard six point teaser for example: If every game since 1989 was teased six points in a team’s favor, the overall ATS record would be 7728-3490-218 (68.9%). Again, teasing an individual line looks good however a teaser requires both legs to win. In order to break even in a teaser, both legs must hit at 72.4% (.724^2 = .524.) Once you take this into consideration, suddenly teasing isn’t so appealing if done incorrectly. Here are some simple steps to determine your return on investment if every game since 1989 was teased: 1. Divide the amount of wins by the total amount of games observed ( wins, losses, and pushes); 7728/11,436=.6757… This gives you the win percentage of each individual teased game. 2. Square the win percentage because both legs must win in order for a teaser to cash; .6757…^2 = .456… This gives you the success rate of the wager. 3. Based on -110 odds for a 6 pt teaser, you are winning $10 45.6% of the time and losing $11 54.4% of the time; (.45666)*(10) – [(1-.45666)*(11)] = -1.41 4. Divide your expected value by the amount you risked to find your return on investment;-1.41/11 = -12.82% The expected value for teasers may be in the red but all hope isn’t lost for teasing NFL...

Written by JSpacer6 As we approach football season, I wanted to take some time to share with those who plan on getting down on the games what I’ve learned in ten plus years of sports betting. I write this from the perspective of a third year law student, not a professional gambler. I don’t have the time to make my own power rankings or crunch stats and trends the way those who make a living do. Rather, like most of you reading this, I enjoy betting on sports, and believe i have finally found a place where I have learned to channel that enjoyment into a positive investment. Hopefully this advice can help those who have a sharp mind for sports betting, but havent yet figured out how to use it to turn a profit. If football is your sport, you have to know that you are in the tightest market that exists in the sports gambling world. The lines are cut throat in the NFL so in order to turn a profit a ruthless yet confident approach needs to be employed. What does this mean? On the one hand is perfect money management, which is by far the hardest thing to learn for novice gamblers. This has been said many times but you must have a bankroll that matches your bet size. If you want to bet $100 a game, you really should have at minimum a $3,000 bankroll. Personally, I have given up on “unit” betting. I know that by betting mostly college football with a little NFL I should hit around 55% of my plays and by seasons end this will give me the return on my investment I am looking for if I flat bet every game. Moreover, the increased...

There may be no surprises when it comes to who we believe will meet for the conference title but there’s one team in the conference we believe is being grossly overvalued based on their 2012 win...

Click Here College football futures discussion along with the team that may offer the most value to bettors among SEC contenders

  EPL Insider James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) This forthcoming EPL season presents us with great opportunities to make some cash. Over the course of the season we’ll provide weekly installments highlighting some of the league’s biggest games and best money making opportunities.  However, for now we’ll concentrate on the futures market for the EPL title to try and pinpoint where the preseason value lies if in fact there is some to be had. If I was to offer you a savings rate in a bank that yielded an interest rate of over 100% you may literally bite my hand off! Yet when bettors are presented with an opportunity to cash a ticket at an extended future date they always appear reluctant. Unlike American sport where the concept of parity makes long term investors wary, European soccer is not nearly as risky. In the majority of leagues you can discount 80% of the teams before the first whistle is sounded. In reality the EPL title is already only a four horse race and the two main contenders for the EPL crown can both be backed at a price over even money. A blind equal stake wager on both Man City (+125) and Man United (+325) to win the EPL will return, if one of them becomes champion, at least a 12.5% return for the year (maybe even more depending on odds offered at your house of choice). The conundrum that faces all of us as bettors though is asset allocation. Few, if any, have a bottomless betting bank so the thought of apportioning a percentage of our betting bank aside for nine months can be off putting. If your bet was to be $100, rather than tie it up for a nine month period the bettors psychology is to make that $100 grow during the 9 month span....

Everyone seems to have their own version of a college football power poll. Whether it’s the AP, Coaches, or college football annuals, this is the time of year we put our research to the test and rank the field. I know people will take umbrage with a few teams that I’ve ranked abnormally high (Florida) compared to popular consensus however that’s the nature of the exercise.  Rankings elicit strong emotions across college football fan bases so have at it and tell me how crazy I truly am for my preseason seeding. 1 Alabama 2 USC 3 LSU 4 Oregon 5 Florida St 6 Georgia 7 Oklahoma 8 Florida 9 Wisconsin 10 Ohio St 11 Arkansas 12 Texas 13 South Carolina 14 Nebraska 15 Michigan 16 West Virginia 17 Oklahoma St 18 Michigan St 19 Notre Dame 20 Virginia Tech 21 TCU 22 Stanford 23 Clemson 24 Auburn 25...

The ultimate college football podcast attacking the SEC and all things gambling for this fall   Follow all your contributors on twitter: Host Drew Collins Bleacher Report Lead Writer: Adam Kramer SB Nation Lead Gaming Columnist: Bud Elliott...

Written by the Golf Guru (follow him on twitter @fullmarx12) This week, the strongest field in golf will converge along the beaches of South Carolina to contest the PGA Championship, the year’s fourth and final major. The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island will serve as host, a small strip of land near Charleston once nearly decimated by Hurricane Hugo in 1989, re-built for its debut during the 1991 Ryder Cup that became known as the “War on the Shore,” and today dubbed by Golf Digest as “America’s Toughest Golf Course.” Course Overview The Ocean Course will provide a stern test for the players this week as bogeys and the dreaded “other” will abound. The PGA of America will be able to lengthen the course out past 7,600 yards but on a track with 10 holes running alongside the Atlantic Ocean, the number one defense will always be the wind. Although the forecasts this week call for calm-to-moderate conditions, players will have to factor in the wind on every shot. The geography of the course is such that there is no prevailing wind direction; a hole can switch from downwind to into-the-wind from one day to the next, or even within a matter of hours. As is often the case with majors, this will favor solid ballstrikers – those with a low, consistent ball flight – as well as players who can comfortably shape their shots in both directions. Players who are overly reliant on a single shot shape will struggle on cross-wind holes and those with a higher ball flight will too often see their shots at the mercy of the elements. Additionally, in a ruling that may take some getting used to for both players and viewers, the PGA has instituted a “no...

Written by Justin Zovas In our last installment we took a look at how NFL teams responded on a short week so it only seemed logical to jump to the opposite end of the spectrum and analyze the impact an extended period of time between games has ATS and O/U results. The bye week creates a situation where one would hypothesize that better coaches should excel. Let’s not kid ourselves, playing on teams coming off a bye is has become a trendy thing for bettors. However, historical data disproves this theory. Since 1989, teams coming off a bye are only a 50% proposition (363-341-13). For every team that comes out sharp and re-energized after the bye, another team will come out sluggish and rusty. Each coach handles the bye week differently: some allow for players to take a full vacation away from football while others have their players in meetings studying game film Tuesday morning. Whatever the approach, historical data doesn’t lie. Below is a chart highlighting four current coaches who have flourished off their bye week at a combined mark of 25-3 ATS. Coach Current Team ATS Record ATS Margin SU Record SU Margin Andy Reid Eagles 11-3 +8.5 14-0 +12.7 Mike McCarthy Packers 6-0 +10.6 5-1 +12.3 John Harbaugh Ravens 4-0 +13.2 4-0 +18 Chan Gailey Bills 4-0 +19 3-1 +20.5 Teams coming off a Thursday night contest presents another scenario where the time between games is longer than a week. Albeit only a few extra days, this extended break between games has offered a few interesting trends of its own. Since 1989, teams coming off a Thursday night game are 115-102-3 ATS (a modest 53.0%) the following week. However, the over in these games is 126-89-5 (58.6%). When the team with extra rest is...

to be a member of the toddstake writing team? As football approaches we’re looking for talented writers who want to attack sports from the gambling perspective. Whether it’s a funny story about a gambling experience, handicapping angle you want to share, or an intensive statistical analysis there will be other like minded readers out there interested in hearing what you have to say.  All we ask is that you answer the questions below and submit your answers to todd@toddstake.com so we can highlight your talents for a fall chocked full of football, baseball, basketball, soccer, and all things sports wagering. Do you have any previous writing experience? (Don’t worry, its far from a requirement if you’re creative and insightful) What sports do you feel most comfortable discussing in depth? Why do you want to write for a sports gambling blog? How long have you followed the sports betting industry? Are you a sports bettor yourself and if so what sport do you find the most success? Do you have certain teams/schools you feel more comfortable discussing objectively? If you could have dinner/drinks with one person in sports, who would it be and why? Please don’t think of this Q and A as an interview or test we just want to get a feel for the individual talents of each interested writer and hopefully we can help launch a journalism start for aspiring sports writers regardless of previous writing experience. Thx to everyone who is interested in pursuing the opportunity and we hope to hear from all of you....