Todd’s Take Week 4 Sep29

Todd’s Take Week 4...

Parlaying the Premiership Sep28

Parlaying the Premiership...

Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) This weekend sees a number of opportunities in the EPL where bettors can greatly enhance their profits by parlaying their fancies. Personally, I am not a big fan of parlays since we all know that single bets are the way forward. Casinos don’t build themselves and the weekly dose of parlay defeats has put many a brick in those foundations. Disclaimer aside, they are fun bets to make if not taken too seriously and can bring huge rewards if utilized correctly. There are 3 teams this weekend I feel present excellent betting opportunities.  These teams should be considered for single wagers and also for cross sport/league larger bets.  It is no surprise to those that read my work all 3 teams figure highly in my weekly EPL rankings.  However, despite their apparent strength this season, they all continue to fly lower on the radar than the big guns of the EPL.  A lower profile can, and often does, lead to better value at the betting counter.  So, in no particular order……….. It would be difficult to go against a team in the top four of my power rankings at home to the side who sits rock bottom of those very same rankings. Everton is a very strong well disciplined unit where each man knows his job and carries out assignments to the upmost of their ability. In contrast, despite a big home win against Aston Villa over the weekend where they scored four goals, I am not convinced of this Saints side.  They look prone to falling apart defensively and given the relentless nature of Everton’s style the game could get ugly. With Southampton’ open style always a hallmark of their games, over 3 in the goals market is quite appealing...

OTL Week 5 Podcast Sep27

OTL Week 5 Podcast

A much better showing last week from our panel of talented experts. We won’t name names but there’s one man still looking to lock down his first best bet winner this week…oh what the hell, of course we’ll put pressure on him...

Ryder Cup Preview Sep27

Ryder Cup Preview

Written by Fullmarx12 Capping the Cup This week, the attention of the golf world descends upon Medinah Country Club outside Chicago for the Ryder Cup. Contested every two years, the Ryder Cup is the most iconic team event in what is otherwise a wholly individual sport. Although the U.S. dominated the event’s early years, Team Europe has now won four of the last five Cups and enter as the defending champions, having won the 2010 matches in Wales by a single point. Here are some keys to keep in mind as you look to place your golf bets this weekend: Format Before heading to the window, it’s important to understand how this particular event is set up. Two teams of 12 golfers will go toe to toe this week at Medinah across three days; 28 matches will be contested, with one point for a win and a half point for a draw. The first team to 14.5 points wins the Cup; in the event of a 14-14 tie, Europe keeps the trophy as defending champions. Friday and Saturday will include both a morning and afternoon session in which two players from each team pair up across four matches; this means that for each session during the first two days, both teams will have 4 of their 12 players sitting on the sidelines. Only on Sunday, during the singles matches, will all 12 players from each team tee off during the same session. Both morning sessions will feature Foursome matches, commonly known as alternate shot. As the name implies, in these matches teammates play a single ball on each hole and simply alternate who hits each shot until the hole is completed. With less margin for error, this format tends to favor the more consistent...

September 26 with 3HL the Zone – Nashville Sep27

September 26 with 3HL the Zone – Nashville...

Click here to listen Rapid fire SEC chatter about not only this weekend’s games but upcoming games that will define conference play

Rivalry Reunited Sep22

Rivalry Reunited

By James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) The greatest football rivalry in England explodes back onto our screens this Sunday when Liverpool hosts Manchester United at Anfield.  Of course you’ll need to set your alarm clock early though as this game kicks off 830am but serves as the perfect appetizer to all your NFL action. In recent years the home side between the traditional powers has dominated.  In fact the home side has not lost in the last six meetings and only once in the last nine.  At Anfield, the reds of Liverpool have been strong of late winning three of the last four, drawing the other game.  The home support roars their team on and Liverpool traditionally performs better against other top flight teams than in the games they’re expected to win comfortably. They often say in such meetings that current form book can be ripped up and thrown out of the window.  Liverpool supporters will be hoping that is the case Sunday as they enter this game with terrible recent EPL statistics.  Still without a win in their opening four games they have drawn just two, scoring three goals and conceding eight times in the process. Liverpool hover just above the EPL relegation zone in 17th place whilst Man United resides in 2nd place.  United are 3-0-1 scoring ten goals and conceding five goals although Sir Alex Ferguson’s men have already tasted defeat on Merseyside this season.  Their opening fixture was away at Liverpool’s city rivals Everton and United just could not find a way to break down the Everton back line.  United were heavy favourites for that game against Everton, under even money, and when I priced this game up I made United clear favourites but apparently the books don’t...

Sharp vs Square: Deconstructed...

Written by Justin Zovas The terms “sharp” and “square” are two of the most commonly used words in a bettor’s vocabulary yet they’re thrown around way too loosely.  The underlying assumption, based on the very definition of the two words, is that a sharp opinion is more accurate than a square opinion.  In other words, the sharp side (or number) is considered to be more successful against the spread than the square side.  Many bettors exhaust themselves attempting to identify sharp versus square sides while others deem it an exercise in futility.  Either way, determining which side is sharp is a rather onerous task. One way for a novice bettor to help determine sharp versus square is to analyze line movements and bet percentages.  In general, a bookmaker wants to receive roughly the same amount of action on both sides of a game (or so some would have us believe).  Thus, when significant amounts of money are wagered on a particular side, the line will tend to move in that direction.  Seems simple enough right?  In many cases, however, the line will remain stagnant or even sometimes move in the opposite direction.  When the majority of bets that are coming in are heavily weighted towards a particular side, the line can still move against that action in a phenomenon known as reverse line movement.  This counter intuitive movement defies supply and demand but occurs because of a few factors: 1.      The money coming in on the minority (lesser bet) is coming from bettors whose opinions the bookmaker respects (i.e. sharp money) 2.      The book itself holds a contrarian view in favor of the minority side.  That is, despite the large amount of money being bet on team A, the book still feels confident that...

September 19 with 3HL on 104.5 the Zone – Nashville Sep20

September 19 with 3HL on 104.5 the Zone – Nashville...

Click here to listen SEC banter about not only this weekend’s games but what we can expect to see in coming weeks from a pointspread perspective.

OTL Podcast Week 4 (some winners hopefully) Sep19

OTL Podcast Week 4 (some winners hopefully)...

So last week wasn’t a ringing endorsement for our handicapping acumen but that’s what makes football great: you get to do it all again the following week! In honor of @tomahawknation we brought out the big guns to change the podcast mojo this week (there is no truth this picture was taken of him during his childhood) **For those looking to listen on ipads, my apologies. The podcast player isn’t compatible so we’re working on those specifics moving...

#BoxscoreReview Week 3 College Football Sep18

#BoxscoreReview Week 3 College Football...

Every week there are misleading scores that the bookmaking industry is forced to respond to before setting the following week’s numbers. Perception creates value in the market if you’re adept separating fact from fiction.  Here are some of the most intriguing tidbits from last week’s games. Navy at Penn St: Despite a stat sheet that showed a strong Navy performance, the final score was much more indicative of how the game actually played out for the Middies. Navy outgained the Nittany Lions and ran 24 more plays despite losing 34-7 with most of their offense coming in the 2nd half. Boston College at Northwestern: Over bettors were a tad disgruntled to know these teams compiled 876 yards, 56 first downs, and 165 plays but only saw 35 on the scoreboard. Totals players might find value as a result the next time these teams step on the field.  Even more embarrassing? NU averaged 26 Yards per point, well below the normal college football average. Northern Illinois at Army: Talk about a game full of interesting stats. NIU only held the ball for 17:27 compared to Army’2 42:33.  The teams combined to go 17 of 26 on 3rd down (NIU 8 of 9, Army 9 of 17).  The Cadets ran 90 plays, 89 of them on the ground and had 3 ball carriers with 20+ carries, each going over the 100 yard threshold. Utah St at Wisconsin: Sure, the Badgers never flirted with a cover but they were fortunate to just win in their own building. Wisky gained 234 yards and the offense looked abysmal for the 2nd time in as many weeks.  Danny O’Brien was 5 for 10, 63 yards and one time Heisman candidate Montee Ball grinded out 137 yards on 37 carries. NMSU at UTEP: The aggies 402...

September 16 with the Fantasy Freaks on Fox Sports Radio Sep16

September 16 with the Fantasy Freaks on Fox Sports Radio...

Click here to listen The only time all week where fantasy meets gambling, may as well use all the tools to pick winners and talk trash...

Sunderland vs Liverpool: A betting preview Sep14

Sunderland vs Liverpool: A betting preview...

By James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) 3 way line: Liverpool +105 Sunderland +230 Draw 2.5 U-120 2 way line: Liverpool -.5, +115 Sunderland +.5, -135 The EPL returns to our screens this weekend following a short break for the ongoing World Cup 2014 qualifications.  Of the many intriguing games offered this weekend, there is one that I believe presents bettors with opportunities to prosper.  Sunderland hosts Liverpool in the late UK game on Saturday (kick off 12:30 eastern) broadcast live on Fox Soccer Channel with both sides looking to register their first win of the season. Sunderland has played just two games, both on the road, drawing 0-0 at Arsenal and 2-2 at Swansea.  Both results can be viewed as great road performances given the strength of Arsenal and the early season promise shown from Swansea.  They should have played three games already but a freak thunderstorm flooded their ‘Stadium of Light’ field and forced the cancellation of their home opener with Reading.  This will be the first opportunity of the season for the frenzied home support of the ‘Mackem Faithful’ to show their love for their side.  Liverpool’s early season results are less than impressive, losing 3-0 on the road at West Brom, drawing 2-2 at home to Man City, and then dropping a 2-0 decision at home to Arsenal. Brendan Rodgers is an extremely focused manager who has a clear goal in mind for the style of play his teams need to adopt. Early performances show that there is a lot of work to be done in transforming this Liverpool side to a team capable of reflecting Rodgers’ favoured mould. The international break should have allowed time for some analysis of those early games, where silly mistakes have cost them dearly and I...