What better way to get you ready for the college football smorgasbord than with banter, bashing, and some betting. Adam Kramer continues to rake with his best bets so it’s worth the listen for that alone. As for the rest of us, well you’ll just have to tune in for a bit of fade material. If you’re having problems with the Widget, you can listen to the podcast...
EPL 3-Ball
posted by Todd
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) Manchester United host Stoke City as they look to continue their push to regain their EPL crown. This fixture has always been one where United excelled as they are yet to lose to Stoke in their eight EPL meetings. Stoke has not even been able to grab a point yet from the four trips to Old Trafford however, this year more than ever they will travel in hope given United’s apparent defensive frailties in the early part of the season. Six of United’s seven games have seen the over 2.5 goal ticket cash. In contrast Stoke have been frugal with just one of their seven games hitting three or more goals. I do feel that Stoke, with their more direct style, will cause the United backline some issues. Dead ball situations in particular are an area that Stoke could over power United and look to capitalize. United should be able to dominate the possession though and this should ensure plenty of chances are created by the home team. I take Stoke to score in this game though and given the obvious goal threat United possess I love the over 2.5 goal ticket to be one you can expect to cash. West Ham entertain newly promoted Southampton at Upton Park. The home side have had an excellent start to the season and they are strong favourites to build on that start in this game. The 1.90 (-110 for those on the other side of the pon) being offered for the home win is appealing as their manager, ‘Big’ Sam Allardyce, will be targeting opponents such as Southampton for three points. However, I would rather look towards the goals market in this game for the best bet....
#BoxscoreReview
posted by Todd
North Carolina @ Miami: 901 yards should account for more than 32 combined points but that was no consolation to over bettors in this game. UNC out first downed Miami 30-26 and out gained them 486-415 yet neither team found any success punching the ball into the endzone. Kent St @ Army: 27-12 first downs, 457-367 yards, and 325-283 edge in rushing yards should amount to a win most nights. That wasn’t the case for Army as they lost 31-17 to the Golden Flashes on their home field despite a decided stat edge. Toledo @ Eastern Michigan: This game never had a chance to stay under however 55 pts in the 3rd quarter isn’t a normal ocurrence. What’s even more impressive is they scored those 8 TD’s in the span of 10 minutes. Maryland @ Virginia: Courtesy of @NW3: Maryland only mustered 10 first downs and 235 yards of offense but used an opening kickoff return and strong 1st quarter to beat UVA going away. Their net rushing production in the win? -.1 YPC Northwestern @ Minnesota: 1-9 on 3rd downs, -50 total yardage, and 67 passing yards isn’t the blueprint for getting conference road wins. Northwestern defied the odds by winning the turnover battle 3-0. Minnesota actually fumbled 7 times although they only lost 2 of them. Syracuse @ Rutgers: Syracuse outgained Rutgers 418-237 and was +8 in first downs despite a 23-15 loss at Rutgers. Yet again the Orange outgained an opponent but couldn’t overcome -4 in turnover differential. Buffalo @ NIU: It takes skill to gain 26 first downs, run 22 more plays than your opponent, and lose by 42 points like the Buffalo Bulls did Saturday. Kudos to the pride of Western NY ...
On the Line Handicapping Podcast: Week 7...
posted by Todd
What better way to jump start the college football weekend than with betting, banter, and ball...
Traits of a Winner
posted by Todd
by Mike Quinn (follow him on twitter BroadStCappers) The difference between being a successful sports investor and a long term loser is razor thin. Profitability comes down to a handful of wagers each year that make the difference on the annual balance sheet. However, what if that margin of error was based on intangibles rather than numbers themselves? As we examine the traits of a winner, we come to realize it takes more than knowing the weather, injuries, algorithms, or getting the best of the number to be a successful sports bettor. There are certain personality traits long term profitable bettors share and by making a few tweaks to your own approach, you can become part of that elite fraternity. You hear all the time the most successful bettors are emotionless. Long term successful handicappers don’t allow themselves to rise and fall with every touchdown or interception because the season is filled with huge momentum swings. More importantly, they don’t allow a single loss or a short-term losing streak to effect their next wager, a concept the betting public never understands. Bailing out or getting too emotional over a losing wager ends up creating a disastrous situation long term. In some cases, this is a learned trait; meaning an approach devoid of emotion can be cultivated. A prime real world example is you’re more apt to get into a bar fight at 22 then at 42 since maturation eliminates a lot of our propensity to make poor choices (although we’ve seen plenty of grown men try to exert old man strength, usually in SEC colors). Professional sports investors are realists. A realist is defined by Merriam-Webster as concerned with fact and rejects the impractical and visionary. This applies to sports wagering in two ways: (i) having realistic expectations and (ii) applying...
Tackling the Totals Market...
posted by Todd
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) It’s human nature to root for things to happen rather than for them not to happen. Sports bettors aren’t immune to this phenomenon which is why there’s always a reluctance for them to neglect betting unders in any sport. The EPL goal lines are no different as they are always weighted slightly in favour of the overs. With the abundance of goals so far this season the goal line for many games has been adjusted to a full three goals as opposed to the traditional 2.5 mark. There is an upward trend towards more offense than in previous campaigns with an average of 2.81 goals per game. So far this season, six games in, the average stands at 2.9 goals per game and thus the line makers continue to adjust lines up and squeeze the value out of the overs. This weeks slate of games sees nearly half the totals at 3 meaning any time you see a line set at 2.5 goals, the line should be examined for any potential value opportunities. In this age of a free scoring EPL normally this would be slanted towards the over but this is not always the case. In fact, of the three games with a 2.5 goal line that interest me this week, two are to the under and just one to the over. Everton travels to Wigan with the Toffemen flying high in the league tables and genuine hopes of pushing for a Champions League spot. David Moyes’ side have an excellent record at Wigan and are unbeaten in the last seven meetings between the two sides. Only one of seven meetings on Wigan soil has seen the over 2.5 goals cash. Nothing I have seen so far this season suggests Wigan...
OTL Podcast Week 6
posted by Todd
Not a tremendous effort from our panel of experts on last week’s best bet selections. As has been the trend, one good week followed by a bad week meaning it’s time to get back in the win column and make some...
October 3 with 104.5 the Zone – Nashville...
posted by Todd
Click here to listen SEC football banter at its finest including line moves, leans, and a prediction for this week’s Titans game.