Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @Ukbettingpro) Here we go again for another action packed EPL weekend and this week I’ve had an unfamiliar problem. This season has seen the markets more accurately priced than ever and betting opportunities have been relatively limited.  However, this week there appears to be too many opportunities for us to try and take advantage of the possibilities.  Our betting banks are not an unlimited pot of cash though so I have waded through the card and highlighted my best three bets for the weekend. Newcastle v Swansea Newcastle has found it hard to repeat their amazing performance of last season early in the campaign.  Whether it is the expectancy to build on their previous successes of or their midweek excursions throughout Europe, they have not fired on all cylinders.  They host a Swansea side who maintains a mid table position but have struggled since the opening three weeks.  Following a points haul of seven from their first three games, Swansea has only picked up 6 points in their last 8 matches.  This meeting ended with clean sheets both ways at Newcastle last year and the Geordies winning the away match in Wales 2-0.  An under 2.5 ticket has cashed in 3 of 6 games at Newcastle so far this season whilst Swansea’s last 4 away games have hit under 2.5 goals.  Swansea should dominate the time of possession and limit the explosiveness of the Newcastle forward line.  Back under 2.5 & 3 goals Norwich v Manchester United This should be an excellent game at Carrow Road which boasts one of the best playing surfaces in the EPL. United stumbled a bit last time out as Aston Villa led 2-0 just after the half time interval.  It’s never...

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By James Kempton (follow him on twitter @UKBettingpro) When I was a more inexperienced bettor I dismissed trend analysis as a pointless research exercise. Who cares that in 2007 Aston Villa drew away to Manchester United; I mean how is that relevant in 2012? Maybe it was the countless bad beats or maybe it was myself trudging around nightclubs at 1:55am looking for a willing playmate that brought me to this conclusion; Sports teams, just like human beings, trend towards repeating past failures and successes. We are only ten games into the new EPL season but already noticeable trends are emerging.  I feel we have a big enough sample size, just over a quarter of the way through the season, to begin to firm up our opinions on teams. Styles of play are firmly ingrained into the teams fabrics so the attacking teams who produce goals should have offense a plenty in their games to come. Those teams that make defending a priority over attacking flare should continue to partake in boring defensive struggles. Traditionally the goal line for EPL games is set at the 2.5 mark. The odds tended to be lower for the overs bet to be landed but there were minimal lines where the prospect of a push came into play as rarely was the line set at 3 goals.  As the game has become more offensive, this line has ticked upwards with many lines now set at a flat three goals. Rather than fear the push, as bettors we should look to use this concept as our friend.  This season in the EPL the third goal in the game is often just the start of the action!  Below are listed some early season goal trends that I sense will continue, at least into the...

Remember when we talked about parity meaning dogs would continue? Yea that just about died last weekend at the expense of sportsbooks. College basketball is here and I have one rule that I live by when it comes to betting...

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Written by Justin Zovas The Las Vegas Hilton NFL SuperContest has been expanding for years and 2012 contest boasts a record number of entries.  With the SuperContest’s growth in popularity, this year’s payouts are more lucrative than ever.  The standard for NFL handicapping excellence has been raised and if math is any indication, this year’s champion will need to push the envelope.  We hear all the time about the gold standard, a winning % it takes be successful as a professional bettor. For a contest where every contestant enters a level playing field, we used raw numbers to give us our projected magic number.  Before anyone gets started and says “you can’t use math for this!” we’re well aware anomalies happen and someone very well may put together a 17 week run for the ages. With this in mind, what would be more fun than to break down the contest using some math and statistics? Pick 5 games a week X 17 weeks = 85 total games n=85 50% chance to be correct, 50% to be incorrect (ignoring half point wins for pushes) p=.5 Binomial Distribution based on n=85 and p=.5 See graph below Expected Value=42.5 “wins” Normal distribution Mean, median, mode are all 42.5 Half of contests expected to finish below 42.5, half above 42.5 Variance= 21.25 Standard Deviation=4.61 Standard Deviations 68% of contestants will fall within one standard deviation of the mean 506.6 contestants will finished between 37.89 and 47.11 wins 95% of contestants will fall within two standard deviations of the mean 707.75 contestants will finished between 33.28 and 51.72 wins 99.7% of contestants will fall within three standard deviations of the mean 742.77 contestants will finished between 28.67 and 56.33 win It is impossible to calculate, the wins needed to...

Written by James Kempton   Manchester United entertain Arsenal this weekend for Saturdays early morning game, kick off 845am EST, in what should be a very intriguing encounter. This meeting should be a showcase of the might and power of these two EPL giants. However, nothing could be further from the truth as both show huge signs of weakness that the rest of the clubs in the league are beginning to understand and understand how to exploit them. My analysis of both teams is going to be harsh so fans of the two clubs may want to turn away now! Where better to start picking these two teams apart than with the home side in this contest. United are in defensive shambles with a complete inability to keep a clean sheet. Their defence is an aging unit lacking speed and their midfield seems incapable of giving them any protective barrier against opposition attacks. The last few seasons had seen Sir Alex Ferguson attempt to adopt a more cautious continental approach to their style of play. Defensive strength was at the forefront of their game playing as they looked to squeeze the offensive threat out of teams and to win the game in a low scoring encounter. Sir Alex is no fool though as you do not have the incredible success in football that he has achieved without knowing the game inside out. He has quickly realized that this season he doesn’t have the personnel to play this type of game. Their last 8 EPL games has seen the over 2.5 goals ticket cash, with 6 of those winning on an over 3.5 goal line. Every home game at Old Trafford this season has seen that 3.5 goal line hit with 20 goals in those...

Betting on college football is as American as apple pie and bagging on Gene Chizik. The only difference between this podcast and the Auburn football program right now is the pod actually churns out winners from time to time. The widget’s been acting up so for those using mobile devices and ipads, this link’s for you Click here to...

Mush Mcgee Week 8 Picks (by Keith Ellett) Everybody thank Todd for finally posting my picks to his blog.  If I were you, I would start looking for a new bookie because yours is sure to cut you off if I continue to share my weekly gems. For those that don’t know me, my name is Mush McGee.  I get most of my knowledge from watching endless hours of ESPN and I think Chris Berman is the ubber sharp.    Most of my personal numbers are congruent to ESPN’s power rankings because if they do it professionally, why should I craft my own?  Using those numbers, I consistently dominate NFL sides and totals.  I only post my strongest plays and I give a suggested unit size for each play.  I like to play the biggest games of the week, especially the Sunday and Monday Night games since they’re the softest lines of the week making them the easiest to cap and provide the biggest edge. As I expected, this past Thursday night game was as exciting as getting kicked in the groin.  That left me a perfect opportunity to head over to surf the net and do some much needed research.  I also listened to Mike and Mike all week, meaning I’m up to date on which teams are great and which teams are better off not showing up this Sunday. There are a few obvious locks in the morning session for today… Let’s start with San Diego Chargers -3 at Cleveland Browns.  The Browns really are one of the worst teams in the league this year, or every year for that matter.  San Diego is coming off a bye and they will be desperate to prove themselves after the collapse a few weeks ago...