OTL Week 15 Dec04

OTL Week 15

The season may be winding down but the stakes are getting higher. Of course it appears to be a short slate on the surface for championship weekend however that didn’t stop the boys and I from giving you some very helpful college football betting nuggets.  There were hurt feelings, disagreements, and alcohol selections like always. There’s no reason to take my word for any of it, just give the podcast a listen. You can get this particular podcast and all OTL podcasts on on iTunes, and you should do so. ALSO, Android users, we’ve got you taken care...

Eliminate Emotion

Being emotional is part of what we enjoy as fans but it’s the antithesis of what makes for a good level headed bettor. Coming in with bias or holding grudges against certain teams will separate you from your bankroll rather quickly. Here’s my take on some of the pitfalls you should try to avoid if you’re attempting to take gambling to the next...

#LetItRide Nov30

#LetItRide

Ah yes the season is winding down but there’s still plenty of money to be won on the college football field. Clay Travis and I break down the weekend’s biggest match-ups with a special thanks as always to our esteemed host Ryan Field Heckle, troll, and vilify us for the picks it’s your inalienable right to do...

Let it Ride – Bonus Nov28

Let it Ride – Bonus...

You asked for it and we answered with a special holiday edition of #LetItRide as Charissa and I break down the extensive Thanksgiving menu before Friday’s normal time slot. Looking for more extensive gambling analysis this link’s for you...

OTL Pod – Holiday Edition Nov27

OTL Pod – Holiday Edition...

Adam Kramer of KegsNEggs fame is a better writer than I am. As a result, I’m stealing his blurb out of principal. “Rivalry week is special, and not just because you can take leftover turkey from the fridge and consume it while placing the serving tray on your lap. That doesn’t hurt, though. Tradition is wonderful. Week 14 is a glorious slate of football and we’re ready to break it all down, one point spread at a time. Drew Collins from Chuckoliver.net, Bud Elliott from SB Nation, Vegas bookmaker/DonBest.com wiz Todd Fuhrman and myself are back to break down the latest in the world of CFB gamblin’. This week we hit on the Iron Bowl, Ohio State-Michigan, Texas A&M-Missouri, South Carolina-Clemson, USC-UCLA and many more. You can get this particular podcast and all OTL podcasts on on iTunes, and you should do so. ALSO, Android users, we’ve got you taken care of. And, of course, Happy...

Deconstructing Sharp Money...

As most of you that have read my work and seen my contributions to the sports betting community on twitter realize, part of my focus has always been on educating the betting public.  Whether it’s the more basic concepts the seasoned veterans take for granted or complex theories on identifying an edge, social media has bridged the gap between novices and professionals faster than I ever could have anticipated.  One term that gets tossed around with alarming regularity is sharp money.  I’ll be the first to say each week when I share my Sunday Pros vs Joes tweets or discuss line movement during the week I often ignore the in-depth explanation thats relevant to explaining exactly what I mean when I say sharp money. Every dollar in the sports betting market is not created equally. Any bettor or oddsmaker who tells you otherwise won’t have a long career on either side of the counter.  There are advantaged bettors out there and while their aren’t a ton of them, the sharpest bookmakers respect and value their input.  Everyone knows the name Billy Walters but he’s not the only guy out there capable of moving lines.  Plenty of other sharp bettors who may only bet 3k to 5k a game can walk into a local sportsbook here in town only to have their bet refused entirely or scaled back to lesser limits.  The smart bookmaker identifies those with an edge allowing them to bet only to move the market as soon as bet has been placed.  This example helps explain the concept of “reverse line movement” whereby a line moves against the high volume of public tickets.  Books adjust prices based on sharp gamblers bets because they have a history of beating the market and being...

World Cup Odds Nov22

World Cup Odds

With the World Cup draw a few short weeks away, being prudent with your futures investments might not be a bad idea.  There will inevitably be a few longer shots cast into dangerous groups changing their prognosis for knockout qualification. In the meantime, here are the prices currently being offered at the LVH and a list of teams I currently believe warrant actual investments. 2014 WORLD CUP VARIOUS LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT BRAZIL JUNE 12 – JULY 13, 2014 * Denotes Bet I’ve personally made Odds to Win Brazil 5-2 Argentina * 5-1 Spain 5-1 Germany * 9-2 Netherlands 15-1 Italy 15-1 England 25-1 France 25-1 Portugal 25-1 Uruguay 25-1 Chile  * 40-1 USA 50-1 Mexico 60-1 Ivory Coast 100-1 Russia 50-1 Croatia 100-1 Ghana * 100-1 Ecuador 150-1 Cameroon 250-1 Colombia * 25-1 Japan 125-1 Australia 250-1 Nigeria 200-1 South Korea 250-1 Bosnia 150-1 Switzerland 125-1 Greece 200-1 Algeria 1000-1 Belgium 12-1 Costa Rica 1000-1 Iran 1500-1 Honduras 1500-1...

POLL: Point Shaving Implications...

Widespread legalization of sports gambling in this country is inevitable. Do I believe it will happen in 12, 24, 36 months? Not at all. Everyone always contends that a potential point shaving scandal in sports would set the industry back but I contend that’s not the case. Here’s your chance to vote Have strong opinions? I want to hear...

OTL Podcast Nov20

OTL Podcast

If you’re wondering why I chose KU football helmets for the segment…it’s a great question. The ‘On the Line’ podcast is back and this time we have a show for the ages Drew Collins from Chuckoliver.net, Bud Elliott from SB Nation, Bleacher Report CFB Guru Adam Kramer, and myself bring humor to the world of college football betting, or at least we’d like to think so. On tap this week: Baylor-Oklahoma State, Texas A&M-LSU, Ole Miss-Missouri, Wisconsin-Minnesota and much more. Oh, we also spend entirely too much time on Florida State as a 57.5-point favorite and talk about Big Ten weather. I’m also not tech savvy so I stole this disclaimer from Adam himself… You can get this and all OTL podcasts on on iTunes (subscribe, y’all), and you should do so. ALSO, Android users, we’ve got you taken care...

Recognize These Guys?...

We all know their kind, we come across them every day. It doesn’t matter if you bet $2 parlay cards or throw around bricks of high society on NFL football like Floyd Mayweather, the longer you’re in this field you inevitably run into characters whenever you mention the word pointspread.  Don’t take this personally, I mean afterall this is as auto-biographical as any piece you’ll see me write so for all my close friends both in the industry this piece is for you. Degenerate – If you fall into any 6 categories or more… (thanks to Jake Barnes for this one) Whiner – He is the ABSOLUTE WORST to watch games with because he’ll find something to bitch about all the damn time.  Whether it’s a call, turnover, or coaching blunder he’s going to find something that’s a grave injustice impacting him and only him.  He can have 3 teams covering by 21+ pts and all he focuses on is his team electing to punt on 4th down with 4 minutes left fearing the world’s most improbable backdoor. Superstitious – He sits in the same seat, wears the same jersey, or has the same pre-game meal all fall long like he’s actually playing in the game. Having fun with bettors like this is an endless source of enjoyment. Kindly explain to your buddy who fits this criteria he can’t jinx outcomes 2,000 miles away from a game venue with a simple text/tweet. (I may or may not have to look in the mirror for this stereotype) System – It would be one thing if this was driven by numbers or statistics but it’s something more in his mind; intangibles.  He spends his time looking for signs from the cosmos to steer him to the...

Let It Ride Nov16

Let It Ride

It’s another week of everyone’s favorite gambling segment. Can I keep the mojo going from what’s been a strong season so far and more importantly will Clay Travis get back to the .500 mark? Don’t call it a comeback just yet but prepare to be entertained...

3HL – Nashville Nov14

3HL – Nashville...

Your weekly dose of gambling analysis, comedy (not of the good variety), and football discussion in a manner only 3HL delivers. Click here to listen