Prop Grading Feb03

Prop Grading

With so many people asking on twitter how various props were graded, here’s the complete list from the fine folks at Bovada.  Winners are listed in BOLD Entertainment Odds and Ends SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will it snow during the game?        Yes                  +300     (3/1) No                    -500     (1/5) SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – What will be the temperature at Kickoff?     Over/Under                   34 degrees Fahrenheit SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – What will be the lowest temperature during the game?       Over/Under                   31 degrees Fahrenheit SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will the power go out in the stadium during the game?      Yes                              25/1 ***The power did not go out SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the US National Anthem?        Over 2 minutes 30 seconds                    EVEN   (1/1) Under 2 minutes 30 seconds                  -140      (5/7) ***Note: Time was 1:54 SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will Renee Fleming forget or omit at least 1 word of the official US National Anthem?          Yes                  +250     (5/2) No                    -400     (1/4) SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will Renee Fleming wear gloves when she starts singing the US National Anthem?          Yes                    -200     (1/2) No                    +150     (3/2) SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – If Renee Fleming wears gloves when she starts singing US National Anthem what color will they be?           White                            5/4 Black                            3/2 Red                              4/1 Any Other Color            3/1 ***No Action SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem? Yes                  +400     (4/1) No                    -700     (1/7) SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – How many times will Peyton Manning say “Omaha” during the game?       Over/Under                   27½ ***Note: 2 times SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV during the game?   Over/Under                   2½ ***Note: 0 times,...

Paddy’s Prop Bets Feb02

Paddy’s Prop Bets...

Everyone knows that perhaps the best value of the betting year can be found in Super Bowl prop bets. Or at least that is what I like to believe. So if you are itching for action come Sunday or just want to make a few friendly wagers amongst friends, dive into Paddy Public’s Prop Plays to see what I love come kickoff and why: Length of the National Anthem Over 2:25 (+120): I honestly don’t know who the woman is that is singing, but she apparently is being accompanied by an orchestra. Add that to the fact that this is the Super Bowl, an event watched by more than 100 million people, and I am definitely taking the over. This will be more than a song, it will be a long, drawn out, performance. Number of times Eli is shown on TV Under 1.5 (EVEN): Every year I take the over on the number of times they show a celebrity/family member/girlfriend during the game and every year I lose. So this time I’m doing the opposite and taking the under here. They barely showed Peyton last time the Giants were in the Super Bowl and that will no different this time with Eli. Number of times Peyton says Omaha on TV Over 27.5 (-135): Fact: Manning has averaged saying Omaha 37.5 times a game the last two games. Fact: $1,500 will be donated to Manning’s charity every time he says Omaha during the Super Bowl. Fact: This is going to fly over. Yes Richard Sherman receives a PI Penalty (+150): Richard Sherman’s little rant last week along with Peyton Manning being the NFL’s golden boy makes this my favorite bet of the weekend. You think the refs are going to let Sherman rough up...

Bankroll Building

Building a Bankroll Before sports bettors even get started in this business bankroll building should be a major consideration. I can sit here and talk about money management at great lengths however before that becomes relevant a bettor needs a starting point before this makes any sense.  I’ve learned the hard way first hand, trying to forge a path as a sports bettor (beginning back in junior high) figure out what works and what won’t for long term success.  For our purposes here let’s start at the top and go through basic questions we should be asking ourselves, even as a recreational bettor, before embarking on this journey. How much money can I afford to lose? This may seem like an absurd question to ask when getting started but I feel it’s the most important. Everyone can always afford to make more money however what are you able to lose comfortably (I use the term loosely) without it having major repercussions on your day to day.  Everyone’s bankroll is different; some start with 500, others can afford 1000, while there are people out there using 10,000 as their jumping off point.  My single best piece of advice is to start with an amount that won’t change your day to day operating under the assumption you’ll be losing this amount by year’s end. Figure this is the discretionary income you’d be willing to spend on rounds of golf or any other recreational pursuit. How much should I bet? Once you have a set bankroll amount you can begin to figure out what your betting units need to be.  Kelly Criterion is a useful math driven technique for beginners and veterans alike meaning your bet size will fluctuate with the size of your bankroll.  Of course...

NFL Bad Beats Jan29

NFL Bad Beats

We all love a bad beat story and this year in the NFL offered it’s fair share. Oddly enough the toughest pills to swallow came on totals and of course under bettors felt the wrath of the new age NFL.  Grab an adult beverage sit back and enjoy the melodrama set to some of your favorite tunes....

Superbook Super Props Jan24

Superbook Super Props...

The prop kings of Las Vegas have released the hounds. Their complete list of proposition bets available for Superbowl XLVIII. (Pretty sure I read books shorter than this in college) SUPER BOWL XLVIII — PROPOSITIONS METLIFE STADIUM — EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2014 3:25 PM (PACIFIC TIME) – FOX SEATTLE SEAHAWKS          47    +115 DENVER BRONCOS          -2.5    -135 1ST HALF WAGERING SEAHWAWKS          23.5         +105 BRONCOS             -.5         -125 1ST QUARTER WAGERING SEAHAWKS            9.5         -105 BRONCOS            PICK         -115 2ND QUARTER WAGERING SEAHAWKS      13.5 OVER -120    +105 BRONCOS            PICK         -125 3RD QUARTER WAGERING SEAHAWKS       9.5 OVER -120    -105 BRONCOS            PICK         -115 4TH QUARTER WAGERING (EXCLUDES OVERTIME) SEAHAWKS             13         -105 BRONCOS            PICK         -115 ALTERNATE POINTSPREADS SEAHAWKS       -3.5   +190 BRONCOS        +3.5   -220 SEAHAWKS       -7.5   +360 BRONCOS        +7.5   -430 SEAHAWKS      -10.5   +475 BRONCOS       +10.5   -650 SEAHAWKS      -14.5   +650 BRONCOS       +14.5  -1000 SEAHAWKS       +7.5   -260 BRONCOS        -7.5   +220 SEAHAWKS      +10.5   -420 BRONCOS       -10.5   +350 SEAHAWKS      +14.5   -700 BRONCOS       -14.5   +500 SEAHAWKS      +17.5   -950 BRONCOS       -17.5   +625 ALTERNATE TOTALS SEAHAWKS/BRONCOS     OVER   37.5   -340 SEAHAWKS/BRONCOS     UNDER  37.5   +280 SEAHAWKS/BRONCOS     OVER   42.5   -180 SEAHAWKS/BRONCOS     UNDER  42.5   +160 SEAHAWKS/BRONCOS     OVER   54.5   +220 SEAHAWKS/BRONCOS     UNDER  54.5   -260 SEAHAWKS/BRONCOS     OVER   61.5   +375 SEAHAWKS/BRONCOS     UNDER  61.5   -450 OPENING COIN TOSS WILL BE: HEADS            -103 TAILS            -103 WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE 3 STRAIGHT TIMES? **Excludes extra points and 2 point conversions ***Includes safeties YES              -175 NO               +155 WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FIRST 6 1/2 MINUTES OF THE GAME? **(Includes safety) YES              -110 NO               -110 WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FINAL 2 MINUTES OF THE FIRST HALF? **(Includes safety) **(If score happens with exactly 2 minutes remaining in First Half-Yes is the winner) YES              -240 NO               +200 WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FINAL 3 1/2 MINUTES OF THE GAME? **(Includes safety) **(Includes Overtime) YES              -160 NO               +140 TEAM TO HAVE THE FIRST PENALTY: **(Declined Penalties Do Not Count)...

Radio Derailed Jan23

Radio Derailed

When sports talk radio goes off the tracks, this is your end result.  From breaking down the Superbowl numbers to discussion of debauchery, high rollers, and losing heaps of cash in Vegas… leave it to the 3HL guys to keep things lively every Wednesday.  Things get weird around 1:31 Click here to...

Attacking Futures

Futures bets are all about finding value. Striving to find a diamond in the rough and investing your money into it before everyone else realizes it’s potential and drives the value down. I bring this up because as we pass the halfway point of the college basketball season, I feel it is as good as time as any to take a peek at my futures bets, figure out why I placed them, and compare the odds I got to the odds each team opened with way back when. I warn you, the results might not be pretty. ** LVH future prices from the last week of October were used as opening odds for this column** Iowa (My price: 40/1 Opening Price: 100/1 Current Price: 30/1): Starting off hot with a future that has less than half the value of its opening price! I remembering placing this bet right before they played Wisconsin. Why you ask? Well leading up to that game, lots of “sharps” on Twitter had been talking up Iowa as not only a team that could upset undefeated Wisconsin but as a team that could do damage come tournament. Reading all that and seeing they were still available, a Top 25 team, at 40/1, I figured I had uncovered a steal and placed the bet. Now could Iowa but together a run come March allowing me to profit off this future? Absolutely, but I would feel a lot better sitting with 100/1 than 40/1. Iowa St. (My price: 100/1 Opening Price: 100/1 Current Price: 35/1) I’ve always liked Iowa St. I really have no clue why, I grew up in the Southeast, but something about Ames has always made me a fan. So imagine my happiness when I saw Iowa St. sitting...

Don’t do THAT on Twitter...

Twitter is an endless source of joy, entertainment, and frustration for most of us.  It’s become the primary vehicle for absorbing day to day news, sports or otherwise, in real time. One of the best parts is each experience is obviously customized, independently tailored to meet your daily needs.  This alone is one of the reasons I’ll never understand why folks complain about other’s timelines; if you don’t like what they’re saying simply unfollow. However I digress and this is a list compiled for grown men (aka anyone older than 18) on things they should never do on twitter.  Of course the only reason this exists is because most of us aren’t mature enough to handle access to the outside world right at our fingertips.  A wise man once told me the best part about twitter is it gives everyone a voice…that’s also the absolute worst part about it too. 10 Things (+1) Grown Men should Never do on Twitter +1) Write lists like this that make you sound like the twitter police.  Trust me, I know most people out there will agree with what I’m saying but they don’t go through the exercise of laying out the ground rules for fear of sounding like a pretentious asshole from time to time…I’m actually ok with that hence me embracing the role right now. 10) Go shirtless in their avatar I don’t care what kind of shape you’re in, this screams assclown.  This isn’t tinder or match.com, you aren’t using twitter as a dating site so the whole shirts optional thing is ridiculous. Besides, using that as your avatar will beg your favorite personalities to skip over your tweets immediately no matter how insightful or poignant you think you’re being. 9) Drop F Bombs There...

2015 Superbowl Jan20

2015 Superbowl

We haven’t crowned a champion for this season but that doesn’t mean we can’t all be looking ahead to next year.  The guys at LVH Superbook have unveiled their 2015 odds to win the Superbowl for your viewing pleasure.  There’s no surprise this year’s title game combatants are listed as the early favorites. SUPER BOWL XLIX @ UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM– GLENDALE, AZ SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2015 ODDS TO WIN SEAHAWKS 6 BRONCOS 6 49ERS 7 PATRIOTS 10 PACKERS 15 SAINTS 15 FALCONS 20 BENGALS 20 PANTHERS 20 COLTS 25 CHIEFS 25 EAGLES 25 BEARS 25 CARDINALS 25 COWBOYS 30 GIANTS 30 REDSKINS 30 LIONS 30 RAMS 30 STEELERS 30 RAVENS 30 TEXANS 30 CHARGERS 30 DOLPHINS 40 BUCS 40 TITANS 50 JETS 60 BILLS 60 VIKINGS 60 BROWNS 60 JAGUARS 100 RAIDERS...

@SheainIrving Podcast Jan17

@SheainIrving Podcast...

There are podcasts…then there are PODCASTS. Shea was firing on all cylinders as you’d expect. The 2 of us attacked the big championship games this weekend among other things.  Of course you know the conversation didn’t just stop there; our goal was entertainment value first and foremost.  You’ll laugh, you’ll cry, and maybe even share a moment with the two of us. Give it a...

Dummy Moves

The dummy move, or pump fake, is a maneuver sharp bettors have used since the advent of the modern sportsbook. Simply put they’ll bet the “wrong” side early in the week to start a number moving only to come back over the top with their true position closer to post time…and you thought bookmakers had it easy. Normally the booking curve for a sporting event starts with low limits when virgin lines are first released allowing for higher limits to be accepted as the market matures (note all sports are a bit different, football with a week between games provides the best example).  Before a betting pool has settled, bigger bets create a larger ripple effect meaning oddsmakers are likely to make stronger moves early  when a wager comes from a known customer.  Think of it like throwing a giant boulder into a small retention pond (bets on Monday) compared to that same boulder thrown into the Pacific Ocean (bets on Sunday). During the week money enters the betting pool for each game and lines begin to stabilize. While it’s not true for all books (some take the same size bets at any point), limits are typically increased Thursday/Friday. This is the time big bettors may start tipping their hand as to true positions.  The reason behind raising limits as the week progresses is straightforward; better information becomes readily available allowing sportsbooks to operate on a level playing field (relatively speaking) with sharper bettors, eliminating potential surprise injuries or changes in personnel sharps knew about since Monday. With the proliferation of sports screens it’s actually become easier for sharp bettors to dummy up the market.  They know full well certain books will mirror one another so rather than dummy up numbers at 6-8 books...

30 Step Program Jan15

30 Step Program

Having grown up playing the sport I can say without any reservation that hockey players are a breed unto themselves as far as athlete’s go.  I could sit here and write, trying to explain the subtle differences that separate life long members of the puck community from others however this video speaks volumes.  Quite frankly if you’re a hockey fan (or not) you’ll find entertainment...