The Week that Was Mar24

The Week that Was

Before I share my thoughts on the week that was from the LVH, I’d be doing an injustice to the entire Fox Family and LVH crew that made realizing a brain child from back in October a reality if I didn’t say thank you.  The amount of manpower, coordination, and teamwork it took to deliver 8 days of live TV from the largest sportsbook in Las Vegas can’t be quantified simply by ratings but rather by the impact we hope it had on the industry as a whole, especially moving forward. Feedback from the sports betting community was nothing but positive (even if members of the media didn’t love it, we were noticed). Special thanks to all those fans/bettors that made an effort to stop by and say hello as well, it’s your feedback that drives our content.  In case you missed the highlights… Having worked in the casino business for 8 years my affinity for sports betting runs deep.  Gambling isn’t a new phenomenon in sports and it’s not going away any time soon.  The willingness of major networks to finally embrace it’s existence speaks volumes about where the industry is now compared to 15 years ago.  Pointspreads provide news and information about the players, teams , and leagues that tell a different story than a biased fan opinions will or even a journalist’s column.  I can’t tell you how many times over the last week on air analysts used the seeding from the selection committee as the gospel instead of referencing Vegas power numbers for a more accurate grading on each team.  We’ve seen the integration of advanced college basketball metrics into our analysis thanks to Ken Pomeroy and his outstanding work…it’s only natural power ratings along with pointspreads become the next...

Friday Best Bets Mar21

Friday Best Bets

Tourney Props Mar18

Tourney Props

PROPS PROPS PROPS! All courtesy of the LVH Superbook Keep up with all the line moves in real time 2014 NCAA  TOURNAMENT COLLEGE BASKETBALL PROPS **Following Props include the Games from Tuesday, March 18 and Wednesday, March 19. TOURNAMENT WINS BY:  AAC TEAMS (Cincinnati, U Conn, Louisville, Memphis,) (This prop closes Thursday, March 20th at 11:10 am Pacific time) Over       5.5  -110 Under      5.5  -110 TOURNAMENT WINS BY:  ACC TEAMS (Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia) (This prop closes Tuesday, March 18th at 6:10 pm Pacific time) Over       9.5  +105 Under      9.5  -125 TOURNAMENT WINS BY:  ATLANTIC 10 TEAMS (Dayton, George Washington, U Mass, St Louis, St Joe’s, VCU) (This prop closes Thursday, March 20th at 9:15 am Pacific time) Over       4.0  +150 Under      4.0  -170 TOURNAMENT WINS BY:  BIG EAST TEAMS (Creighton, Providence, Villanova, Xavier) (This prop closes Tuesday, March 18th at 6:10 pm Pacific time) Over       5.5  EVEN Under      5.5  -120 TOURNAMENT WINS BY:  BIG 10 TEAMS (Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St, Nebraska, Ohio St, Wisconsin) (This prop closes Wednesday, March 19th at 6:10 pm Pacific time) Over      10.5  +130 Under     10.5  -150 TOURNAMENT WINS BY:  BIG 12 TEAMS (Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas) (This prop closes Thursday, March 20th at 4:25 pm Pacific time) Over       8.0  -120 Under      8.0  EVEN TOURNAMENT WINS BY:  MOUNTAIN WEST TEAMS (New Mexico, San Diego St) (This prop closes Thursday, March 20th at 6:55 pm Pacific time) Over       2.5  +115 Under      2.5  -135 TOURNAMENT WINS BY:  PACIFIC 12 TEAMS (Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA) (This prop closes Thursday, March 20th at 10:40 am Pacific time) Over       7.5  +115 Under      7.5  -135 TOURNAMENT WINS BY:  SEC TEAMS (Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee) (This prop closes Wednesday, March 19th at 6:10 pm...

Tourney Challenge Mar12

Tourney Challenge

For the 3rd straight year Mark Rodgers and I battled wits when it comes to conference tournaments.  What ensued can only be described as mild chaos on the Oklahoma City airwaves. Click here to...

Conference Tourney Previews Mar12

Conference Tourney Previews...

Conference tournaments kick off in earnest today and there’s plenty of money to be made.  We didn’t hit on every league’s tournament but rather highlighted 5 of the biggest money making opportunities on the board. I may not have always agreed with college hoops analyst Marques Johnson…well just watch....

Masters Odds Mar11

Masters Odds

The Masters will be here before we know it.  Augusta National marks the unofficial start of Spring for sports fans and what better way than to make a few bucks in the process.  Here are the most up to date odds courtesy of the LVH here in Vegas.  New to golf betting? Realize all tickets are action so if you’re player withdraws there is no refund folks. THE MASTERS AUGUSTA NATIONAL GOLF CLUB – AUGUSTA, GEORGIA APRIL 10-13, 2014 ODDS TO WIN: TIGER WOODS 6/1 PHIL MICKELSON 15/1 RORY McILROY 8/1 ADAM SCOTT 15/1 JUSTIN ROSE 30/1 BRANDT SNEDEKER 35/1 JASON DAY 12/1 LEE WESTWOOD 50/1 CHARL SCHWARTZEL 35/1 DUSTIN JOHNSON 15/1 HENRIK STENSON 30/1 MATT KUCHAR 25/1 JASON DUFNER 30/1 LUKE DONALD 50/1 BUBBA WATSON 25/1 KEEGAN BRADLEY 40/1 LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 60/1 HUNTER MAHAN 40/1 SERGIO GARCIA 40/1 GRAEME McDOWELL 60/1 STEVE STRICKER 80/1 IAN POULTER 60/1 RICKIE FOWLER 60/1 ANGEL CABRERA 60/1 WEBB SIMPSON 60/1 NICK WATNEY 100/1 BILL HAAS 60/1 ZACH JOHNSON 25/1 THORBJORN OLESEN 100/1 JIM FURYK 80/1 HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 60/1 JORDAN SPIETH 25/1 MARTIN KAYMER 150/1 BO VAN PELT 200/1 RYAN MOORE 60/1 BILLY HORSCHEL 125/1 NICOLAS COLSAERTS 150/1 K.J. CHOI 125/1 ERNIE ELS 100/1 HARRIS ENGLISH 50/1 PETER HANSON 150/1 MARTIN LAIRD 200/1 JONAS BLIXT 250/1 PAUL CASEY 150/1 FRED COUPLES 125/1 ROBERT GARRIGUS 150/1 PADRAIG HARRINGTON 200/1 MATTEO MANASSERO 200/1 FREDDIE JACOBSON 250/1 FRANCESCO MOLINARI 200/1 SCOTT PIERCY XX RUSSELL HENLEY 150/1 BRANDEN GRACE 200/1 RICHARD STERNE 200/1 BOO WEEKLEY 250/1 MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ 200/1 GRAHAM DeLAET 50/1 GEOFF OGILVY 200/1 BROOKS KOEPKA 300/1 TIM CLARK 150/1 GEORGE COETZEE 150/1 BERND WEISBERGER 250/1 MARC LEISHMAN 100/1 CHARLES HOWELL III 150/1 JIMMY WALKER 60/1 KEVIN STREELMAN 250/1 CHARLEY HOFFMAN 250/1 RETIEF GOOSEN 300/1 CAMILO VILLEGAS 300/1 GARY WOODLAND...

LET IT RiDE: CBB Edition Mar08

LET IT RiDE: CBB Edition...

The college hoops season is heating up and we took the opportunity to break down not only a few of the weekend’s games but talk futures as well.  Of course there was no reason to neglect a soccer fixture this morning either that offered us a bit of value.  Take a watch, you might learn a few things....

Money Management

Being a successful sports bettor is as much about managing your bankroll as it is picking winners.  Knowing when to press your bets or scale back separates the serious bettor from his/her counterparts.  I figured it only made sense to share a few of my thoughts on the topic including an explanation of why everyone needs to have a basic understanding of the Kelly criterion before ever placing a single wager. As March Madness approaches, it’s the right time to start building your...

MLB Reg Season Wins Mar06

MLB Reg Season Wins

Baseball’s opening day is less than a month away and if you haven’t been studying win totals well it’s time to start.  Remember when handicapping these numbers books often inflate prices knowing the casual gambler gravitates towards the over.  Always important to keep in mind things have to go right for a team to exceed expectations while unders cash when the train slides off the tracks. Here are the updated prices courtesy of the LVH DIAMONDBACKS 80.5 BRAVES 88 ORIOLES 80 RED SOX 87.5 CUBS 68.5 WHITE SOX 75.5 REDS 84 INDIANS 80.5 ROCKIES 75.5 TIGERS 90 MARLINS 69.5 ASTROS 63 ROYALS 81.5 ANGELS 88 DODGERS 93.5 BREWERS 79.5 TWINS 70.5 METS 73.5 YANKEES 87 A’S 89 PHILLIES 76 PIRATES 84.5 PADRES 79 GIANTS 85.5 MARINERS 80.5 CARDINALS 91.5 RAYS 87.5 RANGERS 87 BLUE JAYS 79.5 NATIONALS 89 **TEAMS MUST PLAY AT LEAST 160 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION** **NO...

TIMBER

One of the most common betting mistakes is to confuse specialist knowledge in sports with a specialty in sports betting. This error is illustrated by the proliferation of ex-professional sports stars that become betting tipsters or self-proclaimed experts, and is neatly described by the “Green Lumber Fallacy”. One of the most successful traders to ever buy and sell green lumber – which is freshly cut wood – actually had no idea what he was trading. He spent his entire green lumber career believing the product was just wood painted green, and not newly cut trees. The term “Green Lumber Fallacy” was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his recent book ‘Antifragile’, where he outlined a second similar situation: a star Swiss Franc trader who’s inability to locate Switzerland on the map didn’t hinder his ability to make money trading its currency. To read the full article click here Todd’s Take: Rarely do you see a topic this important articulated as well as it has been in this article.  One of the biggest misconceptions in betting is that just because you never played a sport, don’t know every player, and can’t recite a laundry list of stats you’ll never be successful betting it.  Does having all these tools help you long term? To a certain extent yes but paralysis by analysis is a very real challenge every bettor has had to overcome at some point in his career. I talk to fans all the time that know their teams inside and out yet couldn’t pick a winner in those games if their lives depended on it.  If only knowing teams made for successful bettors every beat writer would be rich given his insider access to a particular team.  Part of what makes bettors successful is...

Updated CBB Futures Mar03

Updated CBB Futures

This time a month from now we’ll have a good idea of the 4 schools vying for the national title. In the meantime, there’s plenty of value to be found on the betting boards here in Vegas. All prices courtesy of the LVH Don’t ever miss a line move while you’re on the go… FLORIDA 9-2 KANSAS 6 ARIZONA 7 DUKE 8 MICHIGAN ST 8 WICHITA ST 10 SYRACUSE 12 LOUISVILLE 15 VIRGINIA 15 KENTUCKY 20 WISCONSIN 20 MICHIGAN 25 CREIGHTON 25 VILLANOVA 25 NORTH CAROLINA 35 OKLAHOMA ST 35 IOWA ST 35 IOWA 40 OHIO ST 50 ST LOUIS 60 NEW MEXICO 60 SAN DIEGO ST 60 FIELD 60 VCU 75 UCLA 75 TEXAS 75 GONZAGA 100 PITTSBURGH 100 U CONN 100 MEMPHIS 100 TENNESSEE 100 CINCINNATI 100 OKLAHOMA 100 MARQUETTE 200 OREGON 200 STANFORD 200 ST JOHNS 200 MISSOURI 300 KANSAS ST 300 ARKANSAS 300 ARIZONA ST 300 WISCONSIN GREEN BAY 300 ST JOES 300 GEORGETOWN 500 INDIANA 500 COLORADO 500 BAYLOR 500 UNLV 500 OLE MISS 500 BYU 500 MIAMI FL 500 CALIFORNIA 500 PROVIDENCE 500 XAVIER 500 U MASS 500 FLORIDA ST 1000 HARVARD 1000 LSU 1000 DAYTON 1000 MARYLAND 1000 MINNESOTA 1000 SOUTHERN MISS 1000 MIDDLE TN ST 1000 BOISE ST 2000 BELMONT 2000 LASALLE 2000 ST MARYS 2000 CLEMSON 2000 NC STATE 3000 ALABAMA 5000 ILLINOIS 5000 TEXAS A&M 5000 GEORGIA 5000 BUTLER 9999 NOTRE DAME 9999 PURDUE 9999 VANDERBILT 9999 TEMPLE 9999 WASHINGTON 9999 USC 9999 DAVIDSON 9999 WEST VIRGINIA 9999 NORTHERN IOWA 9999 EVANSVILLE 9999 RICHMOND 9999 COLORADO ST 9999 SOUTH CAROLINA 9999 CHARLOTTE 9999 BOSTON COLLEGE 9999 GEORGIA TECH 9999 WAKE FOREST 9999 NORTHWESTERN 9999 GEORGE MASON 9999 UTEP 9999 EAST CAROLINA 9999 CENTRAL FLORIDA 9999 AKRON 9999 OHIO 9999 FRESNO ST 9999 RHODE ISLAND...

LIR – Bet the Board Edition Mar01

LIR – Bet the Board Edition...

There is no sport we won’t cover on Let It Ride…yes that includes Jai Alai even though we didn’t offer a pick on this week’s segment.  Apparently it’s also an argyle free zone as per Andy, something we’ll seek to observe moving...