The World Cup is now only a few short weeks away.  Despite our American centric views leading us to believe the world’s sports gambling revolves around only the Superbowl and March Madness, the Copa Mundial is the single largest sporting event for bookmakers around the world.  To help get you geared up for the tournament, we’ve got the gang back together…kind of.  Trusted host of the OTL podcast Drew Collins and savvy soccer punter James Kempton along with myself will be with you every step of the way breaking down the groups, identifying over/undervalued sides, and trying to find every angle possible to make you money this summer.  To kick things off the right way on our maiden voyage into soccer podcasting we covered different bet types, futures, props, and plenty of general discussion to get you started If there are things you’d like us to include in future editions, please contact us here Key Terms for betting soccer: 3 Way Line – Soccer’s version of a moneyline wager, this bet is for regulation time only (does include stoppage time) and requires bettors to pick either of the 2 sides side or that the game will end in a draw.   Typically the draw is the bookmaker’s best friend, especially in games of this magnitude, where teams are more than happy to get a result and bettors ignore the possibility for a tie.  Remember this bet will still be offered during the knockout stage (despite one team needing to advance) but has been known to cause confusion among novices when games to go extra time or a shoot out. 2 Way Line – The easiest line to understand in all of soccer because it’s a pointspread.  Yes, most lines will only be -.5 (with juice attached)...

Gambling is about identifying investment opportunities. Historically football takes center stage during the middle of sweltering desert summers when individual spreads, win totals, and other unique prop offerings are made available. That’s no longer the case, playing the waiting game as this past weekend marked a major gambling “holiday” when the LVH unveiled their full slate of regular season win totals while another large Vegas operator, Cantor Gaming, released point spreads for every NFL game from Week 2 through Week 16. Roger Goodell can ignore gambling all he wants including the impact pointspreads have on the league’s overall popularity but you won’t ever hear a sportsbook operator downplay the value of football to the health of his business. The full list of openers as they appeared on the betting board yesterday is included below. There’s no surprise that the reigning conference champions, Broncos and Seahawks, are the pace setters with win totals at 11. San Francisco, New England, and Green Bay are the other trio of franchises to have a win total listed in double digits. CARDINALS      7.5    OVER -120   UNDER EVEN FALCONS          8.0    OVER -130   UNDER +110 RAVENS            8.5    OVER -120   UNDER EVEN BILLS                 6.5    OVER -130   UNDER +110 PANTHERS      8.0    OVER -130   UNDER +110 BEARS              8.0    OVER -140   UNDER +120 BENGALS        9.0    OVER -135   UNDER +115 BROWNS         6.5    OVER -150   UNDER +130 COWBOYS       8.0    OVER -110   UNDER -110 BRONCOS       11.0    OVER -140   UNDER +120 LIONS              8.0    OVER -150   UNDER +130 PACKERS        10.0    OVER -145   UNDER +125 TEXANS           7.5    OVER -145   UNDER +125 COLTS              9.5    OVER +130   UNDER -150 JAGUARS       4.5    OVER -150   UNDER +130 CHIEFS           8.0    OVER -120   UNDER EVEN DOLPHINS    8.0    OVER +110   UNDER -130 VIKINGS        6.0    OVER +105   UNDER -125 PATRIOTS     10.5    OVER -135   UNDER +115 SAINTS           9.5    OVER -150  ...

On paper, the 2014 edition on the Preakness Stakes looks like a very easy race to handicap — bet the Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, and call it a day.  But races aren’t run on paper, even one that seems as predictable as this one.  I’ve said it many times in the past – the Preakness is a bit of a different race than the Kentucky Derby and requires a different handicapping mindset.  In many ways, it’s a more predictable race, if for no other reason than the smaller fields, but it’s also a race that has been kind to Kentucky Derby also-rans (as recently as last year with Oxbow). Written by KyDerbyJay Before we move on to the Preakness, a bit about my Derby handicapping, and what I had to say about California Chrome: “Yes, he has been the most impressive horse in the Derby prep season. He’s fast. He’s a great story, with his bargain-bin breeding. He certainly might be a freak that accelerates to an impressive win but he will do it without any of my financial support.” Looking back at that, I don’t think I’d change anything.  I still think he wasn’t a great value, but regret not wheeling him the field for exacta value.  Commanding Curve, a horse I gave some respect (and whom Thoro-Graph endorse heavily), made for a very juicy exacta — and juicy payouts are why we are in this game.  Also note that Todd asked me to provide some head-to-head wagering opportunities for my readers; I gave you 3, all of which were winners, including two underdogs <pats self on back>. So, let’s look at the 2014 Preakness field, listed in order of my preference from worst to first: (note:  while Baltimore is expected to...

Another Wednesday filled with gambling discussion covering every sport (and then some) with a wagering line....

Sports gamblers are a lot of things. The adjectives used to describe a segment of the population that enjoys wagering on sports are rarely favorable. Come to think of it, I’ve never heard a gambler described as altruistic or philanthropic instead it always comes out selfish or degenerate.  Amazing how that works when you compare the stockbrokers you know to bettors…I digress though.  However, that’s not the point I’m trying to make here, defending gamblers will have it’s place but my goal is to get you to avoid adjectives that would describe betting behaviors deleterious to one’s bankroll. If any of these adjectives are used to describe the way with which you approach betting (even in a recreational capacity), there could be some real problems brewing underneath the surface just waiting to boil over. Greedy To quote the immortal Gordon Gecko “Greed is Good.” As a bettor though you have to ask yourself at what price am I going about achieving this level of greed. Don’t think for a second the implication here is that wanting to win every single bet you make is greed, not the case in the least.  This is more about staying the course as a bettor being imperative for sustaining long term success. There’s nothing wrong with pushing during a hot streak (we all do it at the blackjack tables) but keep it within reason. Don’t take a position 5x your normal stake if a loss sets you back to square 1…in Lehman’s terms don’t take everything you’re up for a week during football and let it ride on the Sunday or Monday night game. Greed also manifests itself when we start seeking out egregious book errors, hoping offshores or land based casinos won’t catch on to your devious ways. Unfortunately this...

The NFL draft is behind us and fans/bettors/franchises alike are looking towards the season.  Futures have been updated (however slightly) with the Week 1 point spread markets stabilizing as well.  Along with those 2 betting markets, divisional odds are also available for your wagering needs. **All prices courtesy of the LVH Superbook SUPER BOWL SEAHAWKS 4 BRONCOS 5 49ERS 6 PATRIOTS 8 PACKERS 12 SAINTS 20 FALCONS 40 BENGALS 20 PANTHERS 30 COLTS 20 CHIEFS 40 EAGLES 25 BEARS 30 CARDINALS 50 COWBOYS 30 GIANTS 40 REDSKINS 40 LIONS 40 RAMS 60 STEELERS 25 RAVENS 25 TEXANS 40 CHARGERS 40 DOLPHINS 50 BUCS 75 TITANS 60 JETS 60 BILLS 60 VIKINGS 100 BROWNS 60 JAGUARS 200 RAIDERS 200 NFC  CONFERENCE SEAHAWKS 2 49ERS 3 PACKERS 6 SAINTS 10 FALCONS 20 PANTHERS 15 EAGLES 12 BEARS 15 CARDINALS 25 COWBOYS 15 GIANTS 20 REDSKINS 20 LIONS 20 RAMS 30 BUCS 38 VIKINGS 50 AFC  CONFERENCE BRONCOS 7-4 PATRIOTS 3 BENGALS 8 COLTS 8 CHIEFS 18 STEELERS 11 RAVENS 11 TEXANS 18 CHARGERS 18 DOLPHINS 23 TITANS 25 JETS 25 BILLS 25 BROWNS 25 JAGUARS 90 RAIDERS 90 NFC EAST DIVISION EAGLES 8-5 COWBOYS 9-4 GIANTS 9-4 REDSKINS 9-2 NFC NORTH DIVISION PACKERS 5-8 BEARS 7-2 LIONS 3 VIKINGS 18 NFC SOUTH DIVISION SAINTS 5-4 PANTHERS 5-2 FALCONS 3 BUCS 5 NFC WEST DIVISION SEAHAWKS 10-11 49ERS 6-5 CARDINALS 10 RAMS 12 AFC EAST DIVISION PATRIOTS 4-13 DOLPHINS 9-2 JETS 8 BILLS 10 AFC NORTH DIVISION BENGALS 8-5 RAVENS 9-4 STEELERS 9-4 BROWNS 6 AFC SOUTH DIVISION COLTS 4-5 TEXANS 13-5 TITANS 13-5 JAGUARS 30 AFC WEST DIVISION BRONCOS 2-7 CHIEFS 5 CHARGERS 5 RAIDERS 30...

As draft day approaches, so do your betting options when it comes to the offshore world.  Unfortunately betting on the draft is still against the gaming control board rules here in the state of Nevada…hopefully not for much longer.  The interesting part about this year’s crop of draft props is there seems to be more uncertainty than ever before about not only the 2nd half of the first round but every single selection, including #1 overall.  For those that think they have a better grasp on the way it will all unfold here’s a collection of offerings from both Bovada and Sportsbook.ag 2014 NFL Draft – Will Jadeveon Clowney de drafted 1st overall? Yes -400 (1/4) No +250 (5/2) 2014 NFL Draft – How many Offensive Players will be drafted in the 1st Round? Over/Under 15.5 2014 NFL Draft – How many Defensive Players will be drafted in the 1st Round? Over/Under 16.5 2014 NFL Draft – How many QB’s will be drafted in the 1st round? Over/Under 3  2014 NFL Draft – How many RB’s will be drafted in the 1st round? Over ½ (+500, 5/1) Under ½ (-1000, 1/10) 2014 NFL Draft – How many WR’s & TE’s will be drafted in the 1st round? Over 6½ (-300, 1/3) Under 6½ (+200, 2/1) 2014 NFL Draft – Who will be drafted 1st? Johnny “Football” Manziel (QB Texas A&M) -250 (2/5) Blake Bortles (QB UCF) +170 (17/10) 2014 NFL Draft – Who will be drafted 1st? Khalil Mack (LB Buffalo) -120 (5/6) Sammy Watkins (WR Clemson) -120 (5/6) 2014 NFL Draft – Who will be drafted 1st? Derek Carr (QB Fresno State) -130 (10/13) Teddy Bridgewater (QB Louisville) -110 (10/11) 2014 NFL Draft – Draft Position – Johnny “Football” Manziel (QB Texas A&M)...

Welcome to my 2014 Kentucky Derby preview…if you want to know more about what I look for in a potential Kentucky Derby winner, I refer you to my 2012 preview (where I picked 16-1 I’ll Have Another to win): http://www.toddstake.com/2012/05/04/run-for-the-roses-2012. I won’t regurgitate all that info, and instead will get right to this year’s field, which I have divided into varying degrees of class. Good luck to everyone! Written by John Valter Toss ‘Em – Uncle Sigh tried rating for the first time in the Wood Memorial, and failed. Looks like he needs to be on lead to be competitive, and just isn’t as fast as most of these…Harry’s Holiday just doesn’t look good enough…Wildcat Red has never been worst than 2nd, but has never raced outside Florida. Is a speedy type that needs the lead; the pace scenario just doesn’t seem conducive for success. Will probably win some big races down the line, but not on Saturday night…Vicar’s In Trouble was an easy front-running winner of the Louisiana Derby, and gets popular jockey Rosie Napravnik in the irons. Will likely attract some attention at the windows, but the inside post likely spells doom. A complete toss as far as I am concerned…It seems fair to toss Vinceremo’s Blue Grass, but it’s not like the rest of his resume is that sparkling. Is likely just too slow…At press time, Wesley Ward had not announced whether Pablo Del Monte, on the Also-Eligible list, would take Hoppertunity’s spot, but it’s irrelevant in my mind. A complete non-factor. Think About ‘Em…Then Toss ‘Em- Samraat entered the Wood Memorial undefeated, but came up short. On paper, it doesn’t look like a bad effort, but visually is a different story. Entered the stretch looking like a winner, and then...

It’s the darker side of sports betting: the part no one in the industry ever wants to discuss beyond a short discussion that’s always better served for another day. Handicappers, bookmakers, pick sellers, weekend warriors; no one likes the serious dialogue centered around losing bets and the strategies we employ to get through the rough patches. Every conversation I’ve had in this business always starts with delusions of grandeur and questions like “how much money can I win quickly or can I turn a 500 buck bankroll into 5k inside a month” rather than the most important question: how much money you can afford to lose while trying to win?  The reality of betting sports is that 98% of the population will lose long term and even the best gamblers in the world are forced to cope with slumps throughout the journey to the top.  Remember this: a bettor who says he never has a losing day, losing week, or losing month can’t be trusted. We’re all familiar with the golden ratio of 52.4% as the break even mark in sports assuming the traditional -110 lines with a flat bet on every (which you should never do but that’s a discussion for another day). Even if you’re among the top 1% and win 55% of the time, that still leaves 45 out of 100 bets that don’t end with the desired outcome. The goal is as much about maximizing earning potential when you’re running well as it is about minimizing losses when cold spells hit. We’ve all been there before, mired in a funk we think will never end while grasping for straws unsure of our own handicapping. Recognizing the losing skid is imperative for self conservation; knowing when to scale back volumes waiting...

The NBA and NHL playoffs are in full swing and future prices are popping.  Only a few teams have punched their tickets to the next round however that doesn’t change the betting opportunities at your finger tips.  There’s plenty of intriguing value out there in the market, you just have to find it.  Complete lists of updated odds as of Monday courtesy of the LVH Superbook 2013-2014 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP HEAT 3-2 THUNDER 7-2 BULLS 100 SPURS 7-2 PACERS 10 CLIPPERS 10 GRIZZLIES 60 WARRIORS 40 ROCKETS 75 MAVERICKS 50 NETS 30 HAWKS 200 BLAZERS 20 WIZARDS 30 RAPTORS 40 BOBCATS 5000 ODDS TO WIN 2013-2014 EASTERN CONFERENCE HEAT 2-5 BULLS 50 PACERS 11-4 NETS 13 HAWKS 90 WIZARDS 13 RAPTORS 18 BOBCATS 2000 ODDS TO WIN 2013-2014 WESTERN CONFERENCE THUNDER 3-2 SPURS 3-2 CLIPPERS 9-2 GRIZZLIES 30 WARRIORS 20 ROCKETS 37 MAVERICKS 25 BLAZERS 10 2013-2014 STANLEY CUP PENGUINS 6 BLACKHAWKS 4 BRUINS 9-4 RANGERS 12 KINGS 30 SHARKS 7 CANADIENS 8 DUCKS 6 BLUE JACKETS 100 FLYERS 60 WILD 50 AVALANCHE 12 ODDS TO WIN 2013-2014 EASTERN CONFERENCE PENGUINS 11-4 BRUINS EVEN RANGERS 11-2 CANADIENS 4 BLUE JACKETS 50 FLYERS 30 ODDS TO WIN 2013-2014 WESTERN CONFERENCE BLACKHAWKS 9-5 KINGS 13 SHARKS 3 DUCKS 5-2 WILD 23 AVALANCHE...

It’s never too early to start previewing the upcoming NFL campaign…yes even in late April and we’re not referring to the draft. Charissa take you through the Week 1 opening lines along with NBA, NHL, and Soccer intel to get you to the window this weekend. Enjoy...

Lets start with two quick questions: True or False? I can legally wager $5,000 tonight, that I can choose 9 MLB players, who will score more fantasy points than the 9 MLB players you choose. Answer: True But wait, I thought betting on sports was illegal outside of Nevada and a few states that offer football parlay cards? This sounds a lot like online gambling. I thought the UIGEA Act of 2006 killed off most online sportsbooks and online poker sites? True or False? You can enter a daily fantasy baseball contest for just $2 tonight and potentially win 1 of 50 seats in a 1­day $3.3 Million Championship contest in August. Answer: True DraftKings.com is offering their players a chance to win a trip to the Bahamas (expenses paid), to compete for a shot at $3.3 million dollars in a one day fantasy baseball contest. 1st place wins $1,000,000 cash, and the remaining prize money funnels down to the other 49 contestants. Written by Trev Rogers Welcome to the rapidly growing world of Daily Fantasy Sports contests!  DFS sites allow users to wager thousands of dollars on the performance of professional athletes each day within large multi­user or head to head contests. Back in 2006, the National Football League, along with other pro sports leagues, lobbied Congress to exempt fantasy sports from the UIGEA, which was intended to crack down on illegal online gambling. They obviously had no idea that a few years later daily fantasy sports sites would emerge to take advantage of a carve­out fully intended for the traditional season long format. The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 carve­out for fantasy sports businesses requires they meet the following criteria: (#1) The value of the prizes is not determined by the number of participants or the amount of fees paid (#2) All winning outcomes reflect the relative knowledge and skill of the participants (#3) The fantasy game’s result is not based on the final score of any “real­world” games. Simply put, Daily Fantasy Sports Contests are legal, because they are considered a game of SKILL, rather than CHANCE. The legal exemption exists for wagering on games of skill in which the winners are not determined by the outcome of a single game or the performance of a single player. The skill aspect focuses on the user choosing “real life” players to win a contest based on his/her knowledge or skill. When we compare the skill vs. chance ratio of 9 players (roster size varies) having to perform, versus the virtual coin flip of choosing which team will win a game, we begin to see how the skill vs. chance ratio is viewed by lawmakers. Also note, that there must be more than 1 game on the schedule for a particular sport, in order for cash contest to take place in single day. Based on this carve­out, daily fantasy sports contests likely comply with federal regulations. This does not mean that all contests available on daily fantasy sites are 100% in line with the regulations. “Pick 5” games offered by some daily fantasy sites, are an example of the industry potentially pushing the boundaries of the carve­out too far. “Pick 5” contests are similar to a 5 team parlay where you can bet $11 on one set of 5 player vs. player matchups. If you correctly choose the player that scores more fantasy points in all 5 matchups, you just turned $11 into $200. The 3 largest daily fantasy sports (FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftStreet) do not offer “Pick 5” games. We can only assume that their legal counsel has deemed this type of game beyond the regulations of the fantasy sports carve­out. I will take a closer look at these contests in future posts examining how DFS sites make money. Not all states allow daily fantasy sports contests. If you live the in following states, you are currently prohibited from playing a “real money” game on daily fantasy sports sites; Arizona, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, and Quebec, Canada Wall Street Support For DFS  It is no surprise that major media companies are beginning to see the huge potential of DFS. With an estimated 36 million people playing fantasy sports in North America, the revenue that could be earned from the average 10% rake on these daily contests is enormous. Roughly four years into this rapidly growing industry, no major legal challenges have been brought against the DFS trailblazers. In the past year, private equity and media companies such as Comcast Ventures ($11 million to FanDuel), Redpoint Ventures (led a $24 million round of funding to DraftKings), IAC (DraftStreet), and MGT Capital (DraftDay), made investments in DFS sites. Involvement by publicly traded companies continue to legitimize the industry, as we wait for the “big 3” of ESPN, CBS and YAHOO to dip their toes into the daily fantasy sports niche. ***** In my next article, we will examine just how difficult it is for a company to enter and survive within the daily fantasy sports industry. The potential is great, but the process must be efficient. Just ask the ten DFS sites that have already “closed their doors”. ** Trev Rogers was employed by a daily fantasy sports website for the past 2 years. He will be providing a unique perspective of the Daily Fantasy Sports industry, along with answering comments and questions over a series of blog...