We’ve all been there before: on the losing end of a bet looking to the heavens for an explanation of why (insert player here) did what he did or how an official could possibly make “that” call when we had money on the game.  It’s human nature: blame others for decisions you make that don’t work out exactly as you’d like.  Rather than digging into the boxscore and reading the recap to see where our handicap of a particular game went wrong, our god complex forces us to rationalize the outcome. A god complex is an unshakable belief characterized by consistently inflated feelings of personal ability, privilege, or infallibility. A person with a god complex may refuse to admit the possibility of their error or failure, even in the face of complex or intractable problems or difficult or impossible tasks, or may regard their personal opinions as unquestionably correct.[1][2] The individual may disregard the rules of society and require special consideration or privileges Allowing this thought process to ruminate is beyond dangerous. Projecting blame onto others prevents us from trying to correct our own mistakes. Claiming circumstances beyond our control contributed to an undesirable outcome is an easier defense mechanism than becoming accountable.  Hey guys and girls: if you can’t handle random sequences of events that you don’t impact directly I suggest spending those recreational dollars on golf, leave sports betting for the professionals. Learning to become accountable, in both wins and losses, is a sign of maturity in a bettor.  However, mastering this thought process is one few will ever learn.  Accountability in wagering forces bettors of all ability levels to learn from their mistakes if the end game is becoming better at your craft.  Blaming officials, players, or handicappers on twitter for...

Not everyone has the opportunity to spend two years working for an industry leader in any field. When it comes to sports information, that was exactly the luxury I was afforded at Don Best.  It has been a real privilege learning and interacting with some of the sharpest sports betting minds in the world, building on the foundation that was laid while working at Caesars Entertainment.  I want to thank not only management and the great staff at DB but all of you the loyal viewers that came to appreciate the work of our content team at donbest.com or donbestadvantage.com.  Whether you visited the sites to watch videos, read articles, utilize power numbers, or check odds, it’s truly been an honor for us to provide sports betting content that hopefully made you a few bucks along the way.  For those interested in the changing direction of the organization, here’s the full statement issued from DB management: Company Statement Q: What happened to the Don Best TV videos? A: We are no longer producing videos for the www.donbest.com website effective July 1st as the management team has decided to put more focus on our organization’s B2B products and services.  Please feel free to check out our corporate site at http://www.donbestcorp.com to learn more about these products.  That being said, note that the donbest.com website now features editorial content so feel free to check in daily for a new feature article.  Also note that there still is video content for the time being at www.donbestadvantage.com. If you have any questions regarding the future of DB Advantage please feel free to email me here.  Those with current active memberships will still have their memberships honored moving forward.  I’ll personally continue to provide relevant industry info right here on these pages as long as people keep reading...

The NBA landscape will drastically change tonight around 9:01 Pacific.  Well, maybe not as drastic as we’d all like to see for offseason drama but you get the idea.  Jason Kidd traded for 2 second round picks? I mean c’mon man if I was part of the Nets front office there’s a good chance I help him pack his bags and even throw in a 6 pack of Coke for his troubles.  Here’s a look at the current futures board courtesy of the LVH. We’ll be updating throughout the summer as high profile talent finds new landing spots. 2014-2015 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP HEAT 5-2 THUNDER 9-2 SPURS 9-2 CLIPPERS 7 PACERS 20 BULLS 7 WARRIORS 20 ROCKETS 20 BLAZERS 40 WIZARDS 30 NETS 40 GRIZZLIES 40 MAVERICKS 40 NUGGETS 50 RAPTORS 50 KNICKS 50 WOLVES 100 PELICANS 60 LAKERS 50 CELTICS 100 CAVALIERS 40 SUNS 60 HORNETS 75 HAWKS 75 JAZZ 200 KINGS 200 PISTONS 200 MAGIC 100 76ERS 500 BUCKS 300 ODDS TO WIN 2014-2015 EASTERN CONFERENCE HEAT 4-5 PACERS 7 BULLS 11-4 WIZARDS 13 NETS 18 RAPTORS 23 KNICKS 23 CELTICS 40 CAVALIERS 18 HORNETS 35 HAWKS 35 PISTONS 80 MAGIC 40 76ERS 200 BUCKS 120 ODDS TO WIN 2014-2015 WESTERN CONFERENCE THUNDER 9-4 SPURS 9-4 CLIPPERS 7-2 WARRIORS 10 ROCKETS 10 BLAZERS 20 GRIZZLIES 20 MAVERICKS 20 NUGGETS 25 WOLVES 50 PELICANS 30 LAKERS 25 SUNS 30 JAZZ 100...

Haven’t been paying attention to the World Cup yet? Now’s the time to start with the field paired in half from 32 down to 16.  Stakes are cranked even higher meaning there’s no margin for error when it comes to winning soccer’s greatest prize.  Even if you’ve resisted the first 48 matches, 16 contests remain that will have you riveted, especially from a betting perspective.  Not only did we prepare a podcast covering each of the upcoming fixtures but we’ve included a best bets segment from Fox Sports Live and a compelling read about how bettors should handle shootouts in their handicapping.  Sit down, strap in, and get ready for 4 days of the best competition in sport. Complete list of updated odds click here The OTL Podcast (with Drew Collins and James Kempton) Iphone user? Download the podcasts from iTunes Android user? We’ve got you covered on stitcher   One World Cup Knockout Game in Five Decided by Penalties  Sports Interaction calculates odds on World Cup games being decided by shootout  The FIFA World Cup moves into its knockout phase on Saturday, when it’s win or go home for the sixteen teams left in the competition. Since 1978 the spectre of a penalty shootout looms for teams that can’t find a result after extra-time. Penalty shootouts are one of the great pieces of theatre in world sports, but exactly how likely are they to happen? Sports Interaction has crunched the numbers to find out. “Penalty shootouts are thrilling moments in sports,” says Frank Doyle, a spokesman for Sports Interaction. “Players hate them, and so does the nation that’s just lost one, but for everybody else they’re like Old West showdowns with the entire population of the world watching. What could be more dramatic...

The Sprint Cup shifts their attention to the 1.5 mile track in Sparta for the Quaker State 400 this Saturday night.  Widely regarded as one of the roughest on the circuit,  Kentucky Speedway races much differently than the more traditional 1.5 milers in the series.  This will only be the 4th year at this venue meaning there isn’t a huge historical sample size to observe when handicapping the race.  Yet again no surprise as to what 2 drivers open as favorites however all the previous winners could be where the real value lies.  While JGR hasn’t quite figured out their 1.5 mile package this year, could this be the week they breakout?  You’ll have to watch Danielle Trotta and I break it all down. Complete list of odds pre-practice and qualifying courtesy of the LVH JIMMIE JOHNSON 4 KEVIN HARVICK 9-2 JEFF GORDON 8 BRAD KESELOWSKI 8 DALE EARNHARDT JR 8 JOEY LOGANO 8 KASEY KAHNE 12 KYLE BUSCH 12 MATT KENSETH 12 TONY STEWART 20 KURT BUSCH 25 DENNY HAMLIN 25 KYLE LARSON 25 CARL EDWARDS 25 CLINT BOWYER 30 JAMIE McMURRAY 40 BRIAN VICKERS 40 GREG BIFFLE 50 RYAN NEWMAN 50 PAUL MENARD 50 MARTIN TRUEX JR 60 AUSTIN DILLON 100 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 300 ARIC ALMIROLA 300 MARCOS AMBROSE 300 AJ ALLMENDINGER 500 CASEY MEARS 500 DANICA PATRICK 300 JUSTIN ALLGAIER 500 FIELD...

Today marks a seminal moment in US Soccer: the chance for an often fringe sport to capture the attention of an entire nation for at least another 5 days.  Sunday’s tilt against Portugal was the highest rated soccer match ever in the States meaning the entire country is about ready to burst at the seams given what’s at stake today.  We all know what’s on the line; a birth in the round of 16 most likely against the Group H winner, most likely Belgium.  However it’s more than that…Rarely is our national sports program thrust into the underdog and I believe all of us relish the opportunity to prove to the international soccer community we’re not in Brazil just to make an appearance. Last night on Let It Ride Clay Travis and I discussed the seismic shift in the national team’s odds since the tourney started and shared our somewhat optimistic predictions for today’s game.  Give it a watch…if for nothing else to see us sport our most patriotic attire ever on the...

For 2 hours this weekend Soccer, yes soccer of the American variety, captured the attention of our entire country. Bars and viewing parties from New York to Chicago to Kansas City were filled to the brim with optimistic soccer fans holding their breath waiting for the whistle to blow on what should have been a 2-1 victory for the stars and stripes.  We groaned with an errant clearance in the 5th minute that led to Nani’s goal; We were rejuvenated when Jermaine Jones perfectly struck ball slid inside the post in the 64th minute; We erupted with excitement when Clint Dempsey’s goal in the 81st minute looked to secure our passage to the round of 16 and then we died with the outstanding cross from Cristiano Ronaldo in stoppage time that left us hollow with a 2-2 draw. Bookmakers rooting for the good guys breathed a sigh of relief getting a draw as the optimal result, not dashing advancement prospects for Team USA but while protecting their balance sheets in a game that saw nearly 74% of the money being wagered on the Red, White, and Blue. While we as a nation still lick our collective wounds, all isn’t lost as the focus shifts towards Thursday’s monumental tilt with Jurgen Klinsman’s homeland the Panzer Tanks of Germany.  Interestingly enough the price being offered at betting shops throughout Europe don’t scream I believe that we will win but rather I believe that we may draw. Now about that pesky 3 way line and what we can read into it…Portugal ended up closing -135 Sunday against the United States at most of the large offshore books yet Germany opens up at nearly the exact same price overseas?  Clearly oddsmakers aren’t in the business of creating value...

Road courses are a different animal when it comes to handicapping NASCAR.  Odds boards get flipped upside down with unfamiliar names  like Marcos Ambrose offering short prices while fan favorites like Dale Jr get listed at 50-1.  We previewed the race yesterday on Race Hub discussing favorites, value plays, and a long shot that could surprise with a trip to victory lane Video: Let It Ride: Sonoma NASCAR Odds Here’s the complete list of outright prices (before qualifying & practice) courtesy of the LVH MARCOS AMBROSE 5 JEFF GORDON 6 KEVIN HARVICK 7 JIMMIE JOHNSON 7 KURT BUSCH 7 TONY STEWART 8 BRAD KESELOWSKI 12 JOEY LOGANO 12 KYLE BUSCH 12 KASEY KAHNE 18 CLINT BOWYER 18 JAMIE McMURRAY 30 CARL EDWARDS 35 MARTIN TRUEX JR 35 BRIAN VICKERS 35 AJ ALLMENDINGER 30 GREG BIFFLE 50 DALE EARNHARDT JR 60 DENNY HAMLIN 60 PAUL MENARD 60 RYAN NEWMAN 60 KYLE LARSON 75 MATT KENSETH 75 JUSTIN ALLGAIER 75 AUSTIN DILLON 100 BORIS SAID 100 ARIC ALMIROLA 300 CASEY MEARS 300 DANICA PATRICK 300 DAVID GILLILAND 500 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 500 FIELD 100...

The first set of group stage games is officially in the books.  Somehow, by virtue of friendly scheduling Brazil & Mexico were even able to play their second fixture yesterday before Russia & South Korea started the tournament.  As a handicapper it’s always important to assess what you’ve learned (even from a small sample size) separating fact from fiction in order to capitalize on oddsmaker over reaction and market perception.  Here are 4 things I learned that can help all of us profit handsomely as the tournament moves forward. Overs were an ATM…it won’t continue One thing we know is that bettors love to ride a trend into the ground especially betting games over the total.  It’s hard to argue with the success firing overs yielded during the first set of group games.  Hopefully you were able to capitalize on the 12-3-1 run to start the tournament if banking on offense is your chosen pursuit.  The 49 goals scored in the first set of matches is a World Cup Record. Wait for it…  I’m here to rain on the parade by saying that won’t persist through the 2nd game in the group stage. Why you ask? All of the totals have been adjusted up from 2 to 2.5 with a smattering of 3’s entering the market.  Going over 3 is a tall order at this level and has actually been the number most of these games landed on making for a push, not a win.  Bookmakers are keen to adjustments, expect to pay a premium going over inflated prices during the second round of group stage games. Gambling takeaway: Overs won’t hit at a 80% clip for the entire tournament. Regression is imminent: identify the right opportunities to take advantage of market adjustment allowing you...

The NBA and NHL seasons just ended yet that doesn’t stop gamblers from looking towards next year to grab early value on the futures board.  Last night on Fox Sports live we offered a few way too early reactions as it pertains to numbers currently available in the market.  Of course this will sound like I’m playing captain obvious but when you’re looking to bet futures this far in advance, you don’t need to focus on teams that can definitely win the title but rather identify teams that are undervalued.  What does that mean?   Seek out prices that won’t be available closer to the season giving yourself a stronger platform to work with as you build the portfolio. Here are the complete list of future prices from the LVH Superbook 2014-2015 STANLEY CUP BLACKHAWKS 7BRUINS 7KINGS 10PENGUINS 10 BLUES 10 WILD 14DUCKS 12RANGERS 15 RED WINGS 15 SHARKS 12CANADIENS 15 AVALANCHE 14STARS 30BLUE JACKETS 30 LIGHTNING 20JETS 50FLYERS 30 CAPITALS 50COYOTES 50SENATORS 50OILERS 50MAPLE LEAFS 50 CANUCKS 50PREDATORS 100 PANTHERS 60ISLANDERS 60DEVILS 60HURRICANES 60 FLAMES 100SABRES 100 ODDS TO WIN 2014-2015 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP HEAT 5-2 THUNDER 9-2 SPURS 9-2 CLIPPERS 10 PACERS 12 BULLS 12 WARRIORS 20 ROCKETS 20 BLAZERS 30 WIZARDS 30 NETS 40 GRIZZLIES 40 MAVERICKS 40 NUGGETS 50 RAPTORS 50 KNICKS 50 WOLVES 50 PELICANS 50 LAKERS 60 CELTICS 60 CAVALIERS 60 SUNS 60 HORNETS 60 HAWKS 60 JAZZ 100 KINGS 100 PISTONS 100 MAGIC 100 76ERS 200 BUCKS...

Four days of matches in the books and the biggest surprise of the tournament so far isn’t the Dutch dismantling of Spain but rather the 10 Overs to only 1 under.  Books are in scramble mode looking to adjust the prices to reflect a higher scoring version of the beautiful game and I’ll break it down more extensively from the betting perspective in the next few days. Meanwhile, here are updated future odds courtesy of the LVH as a few teams saw their chances for Copa Mundial glory while others (Honduras) took a massive blow. 2014 WORLD CUP VARIOUS LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT BRAZIL   JUNE 12 – JULY 13, 2014   ODDS TO WIN: BRAZIL                    5/2 ARGENTINA                 7/2 SPAIN                    12/1 GERMANY                   5/1 NETHERLANDS              12/1 ITALY                    15/1 ENGLAND                  30/1 FRANCE                   15/1 PORTUGAL                 25/1 URUGUAY                  60/1 CHILE                    40/1 USA                     100/1 MEXICO                   80/1 IVORY COAST              80/1 RUSSIA                  100/1 CROATIA                 200/1 GHANA                   150/1 ECUADOR                 250/1 CAMEROON               1000/1 COLOMBIA                 30/1 JAPAN                   250/1 AUSTRALIA              5000/1 NIGERIA                 250/1 SOUTH KOREA             300/1 BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA      150/1 SWITZERLAND              80/1 GREECE                  500/1 ALGERIA                2000/1 BELGIUM                  20/1 COSTA RICA              250/1 IRAN                   2000/1 HONDURAS               5000/1...

Today marks the start of the greatest spectacle in all of international sport.  Eric Wynalda and I debated the teams/players to watch for the next few weeks with a bit of disagreement. Just...