One of the most commonly asked questions by those just getting started in sports betting is “How much money can I make betting games?”  Honestly this shouldn’t be the most prescient query. Instead, ask yourself how much money you can afford to lose…before you learn to win. Wait, say that again: gamblers need to learn to lose before they can become consistent winners. Before I explain a statement that won’t resonate initially let me rehash a scene from an underrated Mel Gibson movie called Maverick.  During the flick there’s a scene where Gibson’s character sits down at a poker table and offers to lose for an entire hour.  Of course the other gamblers don’t understand his objective, instead viewing him as a mark welcoming his square money.  After the hour of losing Mel Gibson flips the script.  Having learned the tells of each poker player through careful observation he’s in a position to not only recoup the cash he lost but also walk away profits.  This scene reminds me of the learning curve sports bettors are forced to endure.  Before you learn to win by identifying edge, there are extended rough patches where growing pains are inevitable.  Whether it’s having limited outs, taking bad numbers, or having no idea which way the market’s going to move there will be losses initially that are easily prevented with experience.  By learning what doesn’t work as a sports bettor initially you become better equipped to know what does in the future. I always try to make it clear to new gamblers getting started that they should temper expectations by setting aside money they can afford to lose.  No, this isn’t a doomsday prophecy implying every bankroll will end up at zero however the probability of a losing...

There are many ways to measure success as a sports bettor.  Actually, that’s entirely fiction: the health of your bankroll is the only measuring stick that needs to be kept in this business.  Before you get fired up over there telling me I’m an idiot, that statement isn’t meant to imply we all can achieve the same success as the world’s elite betting groups because everything is relative.  However, there are a few tracking metrics that resonate the same way with recreational bettors as they do with the professionals. Lets first bust a myth that drives me absolutely nuts in this field: people hell bent on determining the success of their sports wagering purely by win percentage. Assuming traditional -110 juice on every bet, the required percentage to break even is 52.38%.  What the experts fail to tell you is that you’ll probably be able to count on one hand the number of successful bettors that lay traditional 11/10 on every single wager.  We’ve all heard that 60% is the supposed gold standard but there’s noise in that number as well unless you bet the exact same amount on every game…which of course is a long term losing strategy. In my opinion the only time winning percentage needs to enter the equation at the forefront of this discussion is sports betting contests where everyone competes on a level playing field.  Ok Todd, enough with the negativity bullshit, tell us something we can use. For my wagering purposes (and there will be disagreement) I determine overall success through a ROI (return on investment) calculation.  Now, there’s more to this ROI discussion than a simple equation, especially when it comes to how you calculate your figures.  For those that have a set bankroll, which everyone should,...

The month long ride in Brazil will come to an end today and it wont be without fanfare. Argentina and Germany will lock horns for the 3rd time in an international final.  Will defense prevail Sunday or will the German blitzkrieg continue to find the form that destroyed the Brazilians earlier this week?  Questions are good, winners are better. It’s time to Let It Ride with Jay Onrait and...

After a glorious month of the beautiful game, we’re at the bitter end of the 2014 World Cup with only 2 fixtures remaining.  Obviously there’s still money to be made this weekend and our crack staff of OTL personalities Drew Collins and James Kempton helped identify some of the value on the betting boards.  Thanks for listening to our futbol podcasts throughout the World Cup, been a pleasure bringing them to you for the last 2 months. Remember, the OTL crew will be back intact for the fall with hard hitting college football (err drinking) analysis you’ve come to expect so favorite us on itunes. Can’t see the link? Click here to access directly. Iphone user? Download the podcasts from...

The decision part 2 is officially in the books for the greatest player in the game.  Unless you’ve been living under a rock, it’s impossible not to know where Lebron James will be taking his talents this year.  However, what does it all mean from a Vegas perspective?  Clay Travis and I broke it all down last night on Let It...

It’s always a good feeling when you can put the super speedways home to restrictor plate racing in the rearview mirror.  I’m not too big a man to admit handicapping and Daytona or Talladega leaves me grasping for straws after the darts miss their mark. Little to say, getting back to basics at the Magic Mile is always a welcome change.  As we continue to get deeper into the heart of summer racing, a few prominent drivers are still on the prowl for that elusive first win.  Is this the week we see a NASCAR legend finally crack into victory lane? Find out as Danielle Trotta and I give you all the pertinent gambling information as we head to Loudon, New Hampshire. Video: Let It Ride: Loudon NASCAR Odds Complete list of pre-week outright prices courtesy of the LVH JIMMIE JOHNSON 5 KEVIN HARVICK 7 JEFF GORDON 7 BRAD KESELOWSKI 7 DALE EARNHARDT JR 8 JOEY LOGANO 12 KASEY KAHNE 12 KYLE BUSCH 10 MATT KENSETH 12 TONY STEWART 20 KURT BUSCH 25 DENNY HAMLIN 12 KYLE LARSON 30 CARL EDWARDS 30 CLINT BOWYER 15 JAMIE McMURRAY 30 BRIAN VICKERS 25 GREG BIFFLE 50 RYAN NEWMAN 40 PAUL MENARD 100 MARTIN TRUEX JR 60 AUSTIN DILLON 100 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 300 ARIC ALMIROLA 200 MARCOS AMBROSE 300 AJ ALLMENDINGER 300 CASEY MEARS 500 DANICA PATRICK 500 JUSTIN ALLGAIER 500 FIELD...

Big sporting events mean big betting limits. Superbowl, national championships, World Cup final: you name it and a good sportsbook operator should embrace the action if he trusts his numbers.  Pinnacle sports recognized the opportunity in front of them this coming weekend leading to their choice of a nice round number for Germany vs Argentina: $1,000,000 limits on spread bets.  No, this isn’t a gimmick it’s an offshore leader indicating the strength in their numbers inviting sharp action from the world’s best bettors.  Within minutes of Argentina’s penalty kick win over the Netherlands, oddsmakers hung prices they believed were air tight for the final. Opening lines (prices have moved obviously)   Spread: Germany @ -0.25 1.99 (-101) Argentina @ +0.25 1.95 (-105)   1X2: Germany @ 2.32 (+132) Draw @ 3.32 (+232) Argentina @ 3.46 (+246)   Totals: Over 2 goals @ 1.88 (-114) Under 2 goals @ 2.04 (+104)   It came as no shock to the bookmakers at Pinnacle the first wave of bets came in on the Germans given the dismantling of Brazil still fresh in bettors heads.   “Ultimately, Germany’s dominance made them a clear favourite entering the finals over an Argentinian team that hasn’t had a similar standout performance and failed to score in 120 minutes against Netherlands. At the same time, Argentina’s four clean sheets kept our estimates on opening lines relatively close. Of course, as always, money will determine which way they’ll move,” a marketing spokesperson at Pinnacle said   Every bettor has been there before, enamored with the last thing we see on the pitch governed by a phenomenon called recency bias.  How quickly the pedestrian efforts from the German side were in tying Ghana, sneaking by the USA, squeezing out a win vs Algeria, or...

LBJ discussion dominated the weekly spot with Brent, Blaine, and Clay.  Clearly this is the most any Cleveland sport gets mentioned on Nashville radio until Johnny Manziel dominates come the fall.  Ever wonder what happens when an interview guest completely botches a question? Welcome to my world…...

We’ve all been there before, trying to find clarity while stuck in our gambling haze “Dude, where’d that money go?” It’s the biggest pitfall I see from recreational bettors; remembering their wins while conveniently forgetting losses creating an inaccurate snapshot of how their bankroll looks at any moment in time.  Whether the preferred method is a spreadsheet spreadsheet, legal pad, or scrap paper the most successful bettors track every single wager through both good times and bad.  Keeping tabs on where your gambling dollar goes is no different than monitoring any other aspect of personal finances.  Knowing your expenses (losses), revenues (wins), and savings (bankroll) builds a strong foundation of good habits early on that will pay dividends later as a sports bettor.  Trust me, there’s no more humbling experience than inputting losses into your balance sheet to indirectly teach you about discipline and selectivity. Fortunately now there are easier ways to track every dollar wagered than ever before thanks to innovative apps making their way into the market.  We all know your neighborhood bookie or offshore doesn’t want you to have a perfect ledger of your year to date figures but if long term success is what you aspire to (even as a hobby) you’ll want to be proactive.  One product I actually recommend is Winafy because the application does the heavy lifting for you, syncing with most offshore books making tracking easier than ever.  The product is still going through some developmental changes, mainly to address it’s biggest remaining flaw the inability to work compatibly with every PPH interface.  Here’s an article that appeared on their website raising good points about the benefits to tracking all of your bets and would encourage you to experiment with their free trial. **Note: Next week...

Last night we broke down the World Cup Semifinals on Let It Ride.  Special thanks to Spencer Hall of SB Nation fame for joining Clay Travis and I on our magical mystery tour through handicapping the World Cup.  Two games, two winners (at least from Spencer and I) to help you make some money the next 2 days....

I know you all missed us when we decided to take the quarterfinals off rather than providing podcast gold. Don’t fret, we couldn’t leave you hanging with the 2 biggest games in international futbol taking place over the next 2 days.  We brought the band back together: Drew Collins to host and James Kempton providing the international perspective from across the pond while I rambled aimlessly hoping to make a useful point. 7 Things worth knowing before you bet the games Germany and Brazil last met in the 2002 World Cup Final: Brazil hoisted the trophy after a 2-0 victory. The last 6 times Brazil made it to the semifinals of the World Cup have resulted in 6 trips to the final; compiling a record of 5-0-1 in regulation during that span. Neymar had a hand in 5 of the 10 goals scored by Brazil so far this tournament.  Thiago Silva will also miss the game not because of injury but rather for yellow card accumulation. Germany has outscored their last 3 opponents 2-0 in regulation. The only team to score on Germany during regulation this World Cup is Ghana. The Netherlands haven’t scored a goal before the 77th minute in any of their last 3 games (Chile, Mexico, & Costa Rica). Argentina is the only remaining team to keep 2 clean sheets during the knockout phase, a span lasting 210 minutes. Argentina is playing without starting Real Madrid midfielder Angel Di Maria but may could a boost from the return of Sergio Aguero. Netherlands will be without the services of Nigel De Jong.        ...

The trade deadline is still weeks away but that didn’t stop Oakland from making the first major move towards bolstering their roster this past weekend.  No, I won’t count the pitching swap between the Yankees and Dbacks as having major implications in the pennant chase.   There’s still a ton of value to be found on the big board as we inch closer to the allstar break. Maybe it comes in the form of the NL Central’s unheralded sides in Cincinnati or Pittsburgh or how about the Rays having something to say about who wins the quagmire that’s become the AL East mess…assuming they don’t deal David Price?  Here’s the list of full updated odds not only for the World Series but also the AL & NL pennant courtesy of the LVH as of this morning. 2014 WORLD SERIES DODGERS 9-2TIGERS 9-2NATIONALS 10CARDINALS 12RED SOX 50ANGELS 10REDS 30YANKEES 25RANGERS 200A’S 4BRAVES 12RAYS 50GIANTS 15INDIANS 50PIRATES 40PHILLIES 500ORIOLES 16ROYALS 40BLUE JAYS 35PADRES 500DIAMONDBACKS 1000BREWERS 12MARINERS 20ROCKIES 500CUBS 1000WHITE SOX 500METS 300MARLINS 200TWINS 1000ASTROS 50002014 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT DODGERS 9-5NATIONALS 7-2CARDINALS 5REDS 15BRAVES 5GIANTS 7PIRATES 20PHILLIES 250PADRES 250DIAMONDBACKS 500BREWERS 5ROCKIES 250CUBS 500METS 150MARLINS 1002014 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT TIGERS 9-4RED SOX 25ANGELS 5YANKEES 12RANGERS 100A’S 9-5RAYS 25INDIANS 25ORIOLES 8ROYALS 20BLUE JAYS 17MARINERS 10WHITE SOX 250TWINS 500ASTROS 2500...