(Text via KegsNEggs) Week 3 of the college football season is here. To celebrate this INCREDIBLE AMAZING WONDERFUL slate of football games, we’re podcastin’, of course. More specifically, we’re talking point spreads. Included this week: Georgia-South Carolina, UCLA-Texas, Oklahoma-Tennessee and more. How do you make a pretty average Saturday interesting, you ask? Well, you wager absurd sums of money you don’t actually have. That’s how. (Disclaimer: Sorta joking. Don’t sue.) Editor’s note: Adam and Todd will be forced to enter the drunk tank (or dunk tank) if they continue to pick games the way they’ve started the season. Follow all your OTL personalities on twitter: Adam Kramer, Bud Elliott, Drew Collins Listen below, listen on  iTunes (where you should totally subscribe and tell others to subscribe) or listen on your Android device. Wherever you listen, we hope you enjoy. And yes, the podcast widget has been changed to green to indicate the color of money…...

Moving forward I’ll be doing my best to repost every and all radio spot from various markets throughout the week.  The goal is that every podcast or media spot will at least hit on games you guys have questions on for the weekend. 3HL (Nashville 104.5 the Zone) from Wednesday (College Football line report)…segment airs 4:30 central every Wednesday http://www.toddstake.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/9-10-14.mp3 Kap & Haugh (Chicago 87.7 the Game) from Thursday (NFL Line moves)…segment will normally air 9:55 central every Friday http://www.toddstake.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/KH911_Fuhrman.mp3   Mackey & Judd (Minneapolis ESPN 1500) from Friday (Pros vs Joes)…segment airs 11am central every...

I have no idea where the time goes when it comes to the fall and breaking down NFL cards each week.  I have to imagine most of you feel the same way so that’s why Payneinsider and I are here to break it all down.  In addition to a quick discussion of the Thursday night game, we ran a quick no huddle through the weekend’s games along with a brief discussion on evaluating injuries.  Give it a listen and stay tuned, it’s coming to an itunes store near you very...

In our quest to share the best sports betting information with you on a daily basis, here’s an early look at the opening lines for Week 3 of the NFL.  Comparing what lines would be before Week 2 ever happens to what prices will look like after this weekend’s games are completed offers a unique tool in identifying value.  Early in the year oddsmakers can struggle with evaluating teams giving the bettor an opportunity to capitalize…the key is striking while the iron’s hot.  Tough break for KC fans who will see their squad a decisive underdog for the 2nd straight week, potentially staring 0-3 right in the face. NFL WEEK 3 (All Lines courtesy of the Westgate Hotel) THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2014  BUCS FALCONS -5.5 SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2014 CHARGERS -2.5 BILLS COWBOYS -1 RAMS REDSKINS EAGLES -7 TEXANS GIANTS -3 EVEN VIKINGS SAINTS -8.5 TITANS BENGALS -6.5 RAVENS BROWNS PK PACKERS -1 LIONS COLTS -6.5 JAGUARS RAIDERS PATRIOTS -12 49ERS -1.5 CARDINALS BRONCOS SEAHAWKS -4.5 CHIEFS DOLPHINS -6.5 STEELERS PANTHERS -3 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2014 BEARS JETS...

The regular season is over…the field of 16 is set for the inaugural elimination format in this year’s chase.  Jeff Gordon enters as a slight favorite over defending champion Jimmie Johnson.  Gordon’s odds are a fraction of what was available before the year when he was listed at 15-1 compared to the paltry 7-2 available right now.  In addition to Gordon’s quest to become champion again his closest competition will come from Johnson (4-1), Brad K (5-1), Kevin Harvick 5-1, and Joey Logano (8-1).  Despite being listed at 6-1, I refuse to believe Dale is a viable threat to win the title despite his 3 wins earlier this season (2 came at Pocono).  We covered all of this yesterday on Race Hub…stay tuned all fall as we look to break down each individual race while also seeking value in the new chase format. Click here to watch our brief preview Complete list of updated odds from the Westgate Superbook JIMMIE JOHNSON 4KYLE BUSCH 12MATT KENSETH 12DENNY HAMLIN 18BRAD KESELOWSKI 4KASEY KAHNE 20JEFF GORDON 7-2DALE EARNHARDT JR 7KEVIN HARVICK 5KURT BUSCH 25JOEY LOGANO 8CARL EDWARDS 100GREG BIFFLE 200RYAN NEWMAN 200FIELD 500  ...

Looking back to help you look forward resonates with any seasoned handicapper.  Payneinsider and I shared some of our observations through the first 14 games of the NFL season.  We also touched on home field advantage briefly by disproving the notion that there should be a standard base line applied to every game.  Of course we’d be remiss if we didn’t include some thoughts on tonight’s tandem of MNF games as well.  Enjoy...

Another crazy weekend in college football with movement all throughout the land. Final scores that left us going “how the hell did that happen” and results that didn’t mesh with the stat sheet.  That’s what we’re here for to highlight inconsistencies in order to take advantage of next week’s numbers.  Remember, feel free to use #BoxscoreReview while watching games and we’ll be sure to include your observations in our weekly column.  Every game won’t hit our scoresheet especially when the stats paint an accurate picture of what unfolded on the field. Credit Arizona fir going into hostile territory to take on upstart program UTSA as part of last year’s return trip. The Wildcats were generous, keeping the Roadrunners in the game despite outgaining them by 105 yards. Arizona settled for 4 field goals, preventing them from covering -7.5 as road despite being the dominant side for most of the evening. Washington St lost the battle on the scoreboard 24-13 but won the total yards stat sheet 427-324. There was nothing new with Mike Leach’s offense, 389 yards of passing offense compared to just 38 yards rushing. Nevada benefited from a +2 turnover margin in winning outright as a 3 point home dog. All 31-0 scores are not created equally…just ask Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish didn’t even eclipse 300 yards of offense, getting outgained by Michigan 289-280. Notre Dame finished the game +4 in turnovers which helped them put the Wolverines away early. The running game was problematic for Brian Kelly’s bunch, mustering just 54 yards on 31 carries. Notre Dame struggled throughout the 2nd half to move the football as well, putting together just 1 drive that gained more than 10 yards. Buffalo trailed Army 47-17 with 11:10 left to play in the...

Via Adam Kramer…(since he says it better than I could and well he’s taking accountability)  Oh yea, we’ll also try and pick winners for a change “So we’re a bit delayed, and we apologize about that. The reason for said delay will be addressed early in the podcast. It was totally me I’m not going to blame anyone, but these things happen. But we are back and we are talkin’ college football point point spreads. Some of the Week 2 games we touched on include: Oregon-Michigan State, USC-Stanford, Ohio State-Virginia Tech, South Carolina-East Carolina, Michigan-Notre Dame and many more. Listen below, listen on  iTunes (where you should totally subscribe and tell others to subscribe) or listen on your Android device. Wherever you listen, we hope you enjoy. We will be recording (and posting) on Wednesday nights for the next few weeks and then it will be back to Tuesdays....

So we decided to try something new for the fall…new is good right?  Payneinsider  and I will be embarking on a season long quest to share some of the industry’s best information as it pertains to pro football. Everything from injuries, to line move projections, and the limited social life of a pro gambler during the fall…you name it we’ll cover it in our 2 part weekly series on Monday’s and Thursday’s. We did realize while recording the pod there was an important element missing: an appropriate name.  Our goal is to lean on you guys, the loyal listeners to offer up some suggestions that sound better than “The NFL Pod” because well, we’re not “the” Ohio State.  Also feel free to share concepts you’d like us to touch on each week; we hear ourselves talk enough that we want to make this entirely about the listeners.  Hope you enjoy the content, know we’re going to have a lot of fun bringing it to you all fall long. Also I promise this wasn’t recorded on my CB radio…next week the sound quality will improve.  Think of this like the training wheels in the preaseason.  ...

Recency bias is very real when it comes to handicapping the NFL.  Books are forced to over react each week to what the public saw last.  Betting trends end up reflecting current form more than an entire body of work or a team’s true power number.  Each week the Westgate Superbook (formerly LVH) puts out lines for the next week’s entire set of games.  Comparing the numbers before games are played to true opens on Sunday afternoon offers a great opportunity to identify line value. We’ll do our best to post numbers each week, allowing you the chance to see the oddsmaker’s progression. NFL WEEK 2 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2014 STEELERS RAVENS -3 SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2014 LIONS PANTHERS -2.5 DOLPHINS BILLS -1 JAGUARS REDSKINS -6.5 COWBOYS TITANS -2.5 CARDINALS GIANTS -2.5 PATRIOTS -6 VIKINGS SAINTS -6 BROWNS FALCONS BENGALS -5 RAMS BUCS -2.5 SEAHAWKS -3.5 CHARGERS TEXANS -2.5 RAIDERS JETS PACKERS -8.5 CHIEFS BRONCOS -10.5 BEARS 49ERS -6.5 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 EAGLES COLTS...

Boxscore Review is back!  I got a little long winded this weekend…it won’t happen again.  Moving forward we’ll just aim to highlight games where the final scores didn’t tell the whole story whereas this week I elected to utilize more of a game capsule route.  During the course of the season if you see a score line that’s not indicative of the boxscore use the hashtag #BoxscoreReview and we’ll incorporate in our weekly column. Texas A&M did whatever they wanted when they wanted to against South Carolina’s defense. The Aggies racked up 680 total yards of offense, 511 via the passing game on a 44-60 night from Kenny Hill. South Carolina only ran the ball for 67 yards without Mike Davis in the 2nd half but they were forced to abandon the ground game while playing catch-up most of the night. The most troubling part for the Gamecocks is they were only 2 of 9 extending drives on 3rd down. Boise played Ole Miss much closer than the final score indicated. The game was actually 7-6 headed into the 4th quarter before the Rebels exploded for 3 TD’s inside of 5 minutes to put the game on ice. Ball security wasn’t a point of emphasis for either starting QB, throwing 7 combined interceptions. Ole Miss never established a ground game either running the ball 34 times for an average of 2.1 ypc. No Rebel player carried the ball more than 9x…and that was QB Bo Wallace. Wake Forest had the most pathetic offensive performance of the entire weekend (SMU was close). The Demon Deacons amassed 5 first downs, 94 yards of offense, and -3 yards rushing on 27 carries. Wake did lead 10-0 at one point in the game with their lone touchdown coming...

I woke up this morning and scrolled through my timeline; the amount of irate Tennessee fans (after a win mind you) put a smile on my face.  Betting isn’t personal but they appeared to take it that way when the sharpest bettors in the world were staunchly opposing the Vols last night.  By the time the game kicked off, UT had moved from its market peak of -6.5 to a closing price of -3.  Every line move tells a story about a particular game; even if the story doesn’t play out on the field like the betting market suggests it will. Sharp money isn’t always right.  That’s the first myth about sportsbetting that needs to be squashed right here.  Those thinking differently are sorely mistaken, operating under the incorrect assumption that the best betting groups achieve a success rate of astronomical proportions.  For every game like West Virginia, California, or Temple that go exactly as anticipated, there are games like last night with Utah St or Saturday with Florida Atlantic when the biggest bettors in the world don’t get it right.  Folks new to the industry (and even those that are old hats) have to understand  knowing the exact reason behind every line move is impossible information to obtain without a pipeline directly to large betting groups.  However understanding if a line move is public or professional is extremely helpful in understanding when to enter the market. The perfect example of a game from Saturday that illustrates optimal market played out Saturday in West Lafayette.  Sharp money came flooding in on the Western Michigan Broncos; pushing the price from +13 all the way down to +7 before kickoff.  Inevitably the game ended up falling 9 when Purdue walked out of their home opener with...