We’re almost 3 full weeks into the NFL season…pretenders and contenders be damned.  Albeit it’s a tiny sample size but early on it’s hard to argue with the surprising starts of the Cardinals, Chargers, and Bengals early success meanwhile the 49ers and Packers have looked like anything but world beaters.  There’s still ample time to find that sleeper in the futures market. Here’s a snapshot of the market from before the season compared to how it looked as of this morning Odds courtesy of the Westgate Superbook   Week 1 22-Sep Seahawks 4 7-2 Broncos 5 9-2 Patriots 7 8 Saints 7 10 Bengals 22 10 Eagles 25 12 49ers 9 14 Chargers 25 15 Packers 12 18 Cardinals 50 20 Steelers 22 20 Colts 22 25 Lions 40 25 Bears 25 30 Ravens 25 30 Falcons 60 40 Panthers 60 40 Texans 35 40 Cowboys 75 50 Bills 60 60 Jets 60 80 Chiefs 50 100 Giants 40 100 Redskins 60 100 Dolphins 50 100 Browns 100 100 Titans 100 200 Vikings 50 200 Rams 75 300 Bucs 100 500 Jaguars 200 1000 Raiders 100 1000...

The chase heads to New Hampshire for the 2nd leg of the contender phase.  Brad K was absolutely dominant at this track back in July and his current form says we might be able to expect more of the same.  Of course oddsmakers aren’t dumb and there’s a reason he’s an overwhelming chalk at 7-2, creating value on every other driver in the field.  Who are those guys? Watch Let It Ride and find out who might be worth a wager this weekend Click here to watch Complete pre week odds courtesy of Westgate Hotel SYLVANIA 300 NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2014 JIMMIE JOHNSON 8 BRAD KESELOWSKI 7-2 KEVIN HARVICK 6 JEFF GORDON 6 DALE EARNHARDT JR 12 JOEY LOGANO 8 KYLE BUSCH 6 MATT KENSETH 12 KASEY KAHNE 20 TONY STEWART 30 KURT BUSCH 25 DENNY HAMLIN 12 KYLE LARSON 25 CARL EDWARDS 40 CLINT BOWYER 25 JAMIE McMURRAY 40 BRIAN VICKERS 60 GREG BIFFLE 60 RYAN NEWMAN 40 PAUL MENARD 100 MARTIN TRUEX JR 200 AUSTIN DILLON 300 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 300 ARIC ALMIROLA 200 MARCOS AMBROSE 300 AJ ALLMENDINGER 300 DANICA PATRICK 500 CASEY MEARS 500 JUSTIN ALLGAIER 500 FIELD...

Our weekly look at the EPL slate from the one and only James Kempton Listen to his weekly podcast here QPR v Stoke City Pick Em and Goal line of 2 These are the games that QPR have to win if they are to retain their EPL status come the end of the season. Stoke are so resilient though and coming off the back of a disappointing home defeat at the hands of Leicester I see a better showing from them here. Factor in Mark Hughes returning to Loftus Road and I see a motivated away side avoiding defeat. Four meetings of the sides in the EPL since November 2011 and only one of those cashed an overs ticket on a goal line set at 2. Aston Villa v Arsenal Arsenal -0.75 and Goal line of 2.5 Villa have made such a bright and promising start to the season. This will be a real test for them as the confidence gained from the fantastic points haul obtained so far in the campaign may allow them to play looser than they ordinarily would. Can they play in the same conservative manner that they would have done against a Gunners side of they hadn’t started the season so brightly? Considering they haven’t won any of the last 15 EPL match ups at Villa Park they might as well have a go. If they do though it could spell carnage for what has been up until now a tight home backline. Give me the over 2.5 goals and the away side in this game. Burnley v Sunderland Pick Em and Goal line of 2 Another game where the home team will have circled it on the schedule as a must win game. Their goalless draw at Crystal...

Our mid week report didn’t come with vocabulary lessons capable of expanding Payneinsider‘s vocabulary. We had plenty of fun talking copy write rules and the potential of Payne singing his own rendition of Luck be a Lady for future episodes.  With any convincing, he might be able to produce an album in time for the holidays.  However that’s not why you came to listen…you want the dirt on the upcoming NFL week.  We broke down Thursday night’s NFC South showdown in detail along with plenty of games on the docket this weekend. We’re getting closer to being on itunes…but either way tell your friends about the pod and feel free to offer as much feedback as possible. Enjoy...

The NFL truly is a what have you done for me lately league when it comes to gambling.  Public perception plays a huge role in how oddsmakers adjust numbers after just a single performance.  Identifying over valued or under valued sides becomes paramount if you plan to stay one step ahead of the market.  Last week we saw a perennial NFL bottom feeder in Jacksonville get obliterated on the road by the Redskins and backup QB Kirk Cousins.  Anyone who watched that systematic destruction would be hard pressed to walk to the window this week backing the Jags with confidence.  However historical trends indicate that this might not be as crazy an idea as it would appear on the surface.  Thanks to friends of the program at Spreadapedia we uncovered a few fascinating numbers. Click here to learn more about Spreadapedia Home underdogs the week following a loss by 30 pts or more have produced a record of 84-53-5 ATS, good enough for a 61% success rate (database goes back to 1978) If we dig deeper into the figures to adjust for more recent league trends that win percentage ticks up even further… Since 2000: 41-23-5 ATS (64%) Since 2009: 12-7-1 ATS (63%) Now, if we go deeper applying it to teams that have lost by 30+ AND are listed as home dogs of +6.5 or higher the win percentage goes through the roof… All Time: 41-20-1 ATS (67%) Since 2000: 27-10-1 ATS (72%) Since 2009: 9-3 ATS (75%) One of the first things that jumps out is how infrequently this opportunity actually presents itself.  Is it a significant enough sample size to use for future reference?  I think so and here’s why… Trends often are built on a house of cards.  I mean...

(As always, text adapted from the eloquent Adam Kramer of KeggsNEggs fame) The Week 4 gamblin’ podcast is here, just in time for a Thursday night game that doesn’t actually require you to gamble on it to make it interesting. Haha, just kidding. That’s loser talk. What an amazing sport this is. Other games included on the podcast this week include: Florida State-Clemson, Oklahoma-West Virginia, Alabama-Florida, LSU-Mississippi State, Michigan-Utah, and many, many more (than we could even list). Thank you to those of you who sent us game suggestions on Twitter. Your passion and degeneracy – seriously, y’all want intel on some weird games – are most appreciated. Listen below, listen on  iTunes (where you should totally subscribe and tell others to subscribe) or listen on your Android device. Wherever you listen, we hope you enjoy. See you next week. Cheers. If you’re having trouble viewing the widget click here (feel free to load the widget on your CFB centric sites as well)   Editor Note: BTW I do appreciate all the positive encouragement from you guys when it comes to delivering on my first successful best bet of the season.  Fortunately the other 3 boys are clicking and you guys can help adopt #FadeFuhrman as your mantra until I get out of my own...

It really is amazing how just one game can drastically impact NFL pointspreads for the following week.  As we saw last Sunday (despite sharp money on the Vikes) books opened the Patriots -3.5 off their loss to the Dolphins whereas they projected a 6 pt favorite.  Here’s a look at the matchups next week if the games were to be played this weekend NFL WEEK 4 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2014 GIANTS REDSKINS -3.5 SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2014 DOLPHINS -7 RAIDERS                    @ LONDON, ENGLAND PACKERS -3 BEARS BILLS TEXANS -4 TITANS COLTS -6 PANTHERS RAVENS -3 EVEN LIONS -1.5 JETS BUCS STEELERS -6.5 JAGUARS CHARGERS -9.5 EAGLES 49ERS -4.5 FALCONS VIKINGS -1.5 SAINTS -3.5 COWBOYS MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2014 PATRIOTS -6.5 CHIEFS  ...

The deeper we get into the college football season, the more information we can glean from a team’s stats.  Numbers never lie however there’s always noise in boxscores that needs to be sorted out before using it as the gospel.  Final scores are misleading and that’s why we’re here to help sort out some of the stat lines that will help us identify value moving forward.  Kudos to all those teams that pulled off impressive upsets, even with the playoff there’s still plenty of drama unfolding and yet to occur during the regular season. BYU vs Houston Byu only beat Houston 33-25 but the game was never as close as the final score.  The Cougars got out of the gates quickly, building a 23-0 lead before Houston chipped into the lead before the half.  Stat wise BYU out first downed Houston 32-18, outgained them by 198 yards, and out rushed them 323-10.  Turnovers were the great equalizer keeping the undermanned UH side in the game. North Texas vs La Tech Louisiana Tech looked impressive in dispatching of North Texas 42-21.  Tech built a 42-7 lead before the Mean Green scored the final 14 points of the game making the final look more respectable.  Skip Holtz squad only outgained UNT by 79 yards however 135 yards of North Texas’ 279 came on the final 2 drives in garbage time. Buffalo vs Baylor Baylor went into western New York and obliterated Buffalo 63-21.  The Bulls found a way to put 21 points on the board late however that came courtesy of the Bears second string defense.  Against Baylor’s starters in the 1st half Buffalo amassed a grand total of 75 yards of offense on 8 drives with each series ending in a punt. Cincinnati vs Toledo...

We finally came up with a name!!! Well, at least one we hope will stick.  Either way we’re not in the creativity business however you’ll be hard pressed to find better NFL gambling coverage than we try and offer up each and every Monday and Thursday.  If you’re not already following my cohost Payneinsider , I encourage you to do so now…even if he doesn’t know the definition of the world nomenclature.  Don’t worry if the joke makes no sense, listen to the pod and it will. Covered in the pod: Monday Night Football, What we learned from a crazy Week 2, Injury impacts, and of course looking into the crystal ball regarding early movers.  Enjoy Note: We’re working on getting the podcast on itunes, hopefully we should be all set soon appreciate the patience from you guys towards the two of us who bring zero tech savvy to the table....

We’re only 3 weeks into the college football season…already the national championship picture is beyond muddled.  The performances from contenders like FSU and Alabama haven’t left prognosticators pegging chalk for the national title.  Then again the next time they crown a national champion in September will be the first.   During the BCS era we grew accustomed to wholesale changes in future odds after just one loss but the playoff has changed the way oddsmakers need to adjust prices. You’ll notice plenty of teams from power conferences with only modest movement despite being saddled with a loss already (Ahem Georgia).  Surprise teams like Texas A&M, BYU, and Notre Dame have seen value completely dissipate from their prices amid impressive hot starts.  With so much football left to play there’s still value on the board…it’s all about identifying Cinderella before the rest of the betting community finds her first. All prices from Westgate Superbook August 28 Current Change FSU 3 4 -1 Oregon 6 6 0 Alabama 5 6 -1 Oklahoma 7 7 0 Auburn 15 8 7 UCLA 10 12 -2 LSU 20 15 5 Baylor 20 15 5 Texas A&M 100 15 85 Georgia 18 20 -2 Notre Dame 100 25 75 Ohio St 40 30 10 Michigan St 25 30 -5 Ole Miss 50 30 20 USC 30 30 0 South Carolina 30 40 -10 Florida 60 40 20 Wisconsin 30 50 -20 Stanford 50 50 0 BYU 300 50 250 Kansas St 100 75 25 Nebraska 100 75 25 TCU 100 75 25 Arizona St 100 100 0 Missouri 100 100 0 Washington 75 100 -25 Clemson 75 100 -25 Arizona 200 100 100 Mississippi St 100 100 0 Oklahoma St 200 200 0 North Carolina 100 200 -100 Field 75 200...

Your full dose of Let It Ride for a pretty sorry weekend of college football (at least on paper). That’s why we’re always thankful there’s plenty of gambling to get us through the doldrums! Let It Ride Degenerate Special (aka the Texas A&M haterade play) Let It Ride Bonus...

It will be very interesting to see how the new format for Qualification games affect players this weekend.  The splitting up to different days rather than traditional Tuesday/Wednesday games means some players will return to their clubs earlier than others. England played Monday so by Tuesday lunchtime they were able to be back at home resting, actively assessed by their club sides.  Wales, for example using Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey, played Tuesday night. This gives the management at clubs difficult issues in terms of planning and strategy in such a fragmented working week.   Analysis courtesy of James Kempton   Listen to his podcast here   Arsenal v Man City Man City -0.25 and 2.75 goals   The last seven meetings of the sides at the Emirates have gone under 2.5 goals so with this line set at 2.75 goals you have to favour the under line. I see City setting up defensively and looking to hit Arsenal on the counter attack when their powerful midfield unit muscle Arsenal off the ball. This is screaming under 2.75 goals to me as it may be one goal either way that seals it.   Chelsea v Swansea Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals   The top two, who’d have thought that, meet at Stamford Bridge and the Blues have only covered this line in two of the sides’ six meetings.  Both were at Stamford Bridge though where Chelsea have outscored Swansea 7-1 in the three games in the capital. Swansea have never scored more than once in an EPL game against Chelsea but Jose Mourinho’s team has looked vulnerable this season defensively whilst Swansea have looked lively in attack. Diego Costa is struggling with a hamstring injury and is a game time decision.  Costa has added an extra...