NFL Week 6 Advanced Lines Courtesy of the Westgate Superbook Thursday, October 9 COLTS -2 TEXANS Sunday, October 12 BRONCOS -6 JETS STEELERS -1.5 BROWNS JAGUARS TITANS -7 BEARS FALCONS -3 (EV) PACKERS -3 DOLPHINS LIONS -4 VIKINGS PANTHERS BENGALS -7 PATRIOTS BILLS PK RAVENS -3 (EV) BUCCS CHARGERS -6 RAIDERS COWBOYS SEAHAWKS -8.5 REDSKINS CARDINALS -6.5 GIANTS EAGLES -3.5 Monday, October 13 49ERS -4.5 RAMS...
Live Damnit
posted by Todd
As a two time fantasy champion in 2013, I’ve done the unthinkable—I’ve retired from fantasy. I know, I know, you’re going to tell me: I’m 34, I’m in the prime of my career, I’ve got players relying on me, an organization I’ve built from the ground up, records to break. And I know all your points are valid. I know that I’ll miss logging in and hearing the Sportscenter alert on draft day. I’ll miss the shit talking. Yes, of course, I will. But after winning my townie league (That’s the term I use to describe my hometown league. The term“townie”will most likely offend you if you still live in the city you were born in) and my work league in the same season, I decided to retire. Written by David Scherer The question I’m asked most by the media is, “why”? I’ll tell you the same thing I’ve told thousands of reporters—there was nothing left for me to accomplish. It simply doesn’t get any better. I get to brag to the guys I’ve known longest in my life and people I’m forced to be around 40+ hours a week forever. There will never be a better feeling than winning two championships in the same year. I’ll never start 0-4 again; I’ll never get a text from a buddy laughing because my second round RB is limping off the field headed towards the locker room; I’ll never scream at my girlfriend again for asking me the same question four times when really it was because Russell Wilson ran in a QB sneak from the 3 yard line instead of Marshawn Lynch getting me 6 points (to be fair, the previous play was a Lynch TD that was called back due to holding, so she...
OTL Podcast
posted by Todd
We got the band back together!!! Adam Kramer made his triumphant return to the podcast this week after a brief 1 week hiatus. We’ll all be the first to admit that last week’s edition got a little weird…and no it wasn’t because I finally figured out how to pick a damn winner breaking my embarrassing 4 game losing skid. Partly because we felt bad for the background noise and confusion during Week 5, our crew decided to escalate things this week with an extended cut covering damn near every game on the board. Grab an adult beverage, your significant other, and small children before finding a nice spot around the fireplace to listen to the sweet sounds of Adam Kramer, Bud Elliott, Drew Collins, and myself get you to the window this weekend. You also might want to pack a snack, you’ll be here a while. Listen below, listen on iTunes (where you should totally subscribe and tell others to subscribe) or listen on your Android device. Wherever you listen, we hope you enjoy. See you next week. Cheers. If you’re having trouble viewing the widget click here (feel free to load the widget on your CFB centric sites as...
Week 4 Post Mortem
posted by Todd
It’s easy to get caught up in the energy of a game day, hell that’s what most of us live for all fall. The homework’s been done; hours spent on conference calls, stats, and exploring angles is in the rear view mirror. Unfortunately active involvement doesn’t just stop when a game goes final with a win or a loss. Bet the Board Podcast Over the years I’ve found myself spending more time combing through play by play for games recently completed to effectively “grade” my wagers. It’s hard to ignore just the wins and losses but the real merits of a good wager goes deeper. Football season is a marathon, not a sprint and the most dangerous outcome for all of us is to ignore what we’ve seen and learn from it. As a recurring weekly feature my goal is to take you through my weekly thought process, grading my 5 “public” selections for the week that I’ve elected to use in the supercontest. Typically the criteria I use to grade each play will come from a combination of factors including beating the closing line, winning the box score, staying inside (or outside as a fav) the number for the majority of the game, and identifying intangibles not built into the line. Don’t worry, I’ll explain more as we dive into the exercise. For more stats, lines, and trends visit www.oddshark.com Contest line: Bills +3 Did the play beat closing line? Yes I took +3 whereas the game closed +2.5. However the best number available in the market was actually Buffalo +4 earlier in the week. Did the Bills win the box score? I wouldn’t say either team won the box score Sunday with stats that pretty much mirrored each other. Buffalo netted +1...
Podcast
posted by Todd
What a weird week in the NFL…then again you can pretty much say that throughout the course of the regular season these days. In addition to recapping what we learned from the week that was, Payneinsider and I previewed tonight’s showdown at Arrowhead along with a bird’s eye view of the upcoming schedule....
Updated Odds
posted by Todd
…and then there were 10. The field for the fall classic is set as 10 teams will begin their quest to take home the world series. Pittsburgh and Kansas City have been pleasant surprises this year; Pirates proving last season was no fluke and KC finally getting into the mix after a lengthy hiatus. Of course first things first for our 4 wild card teams; Kansas City will host Oakland with James Shields opposing Jon Lester ( KC -125, 6.5) while the pitching match-up we’ll see at PNC still remains a mystery. Regardless, here’s your complete list of updated futures courtesy of the Westgate Superbook. 2014 WORLD SERIES DODGERS 9-2 TIGERS 9-2 NATIONALS 9-2 CARDINALS 8 ANGELS 5 A’S 12 GIANTS 14 PIRATES 14 ORIOLES 7 ROYALS 16 2014 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT DODGERS 9-5 NATIONALS 9-5 CARDINALS 7-2 GIANTS 7 PIRATES 7 2014 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT TIGERS 9-5 ANGELS 2 A’S 6 ORIOLES 13-4 ROYALS...
EPL Round 6
posted by Todd
Futbol Friday is back! Our soccer insider is here to share his insight for every fixture on this weekend’s EPL slate. Make sure to follow James Kempton on twitter and listen to his podcast here. Liverpool v Everton Liverpool -0.5 Goals 3 Everton has not won a derby game at Anfield since the turn of the millennium and with a defense that looks like a sieve, it is a big ask for them to win this game. Couple that with the fact the Toffees have only scored three goals in their last eight EPL trips across Stanley Park and you see how unlikely such a win is. However, all is not rosey in Liverpool’s garden after that poor showing on the road last time out against West Ham. Having said that give me the home side to have more defensive discipline than their visitors and take this game on the -0.5 line. Chelsea v Aston Villa Chelsea -1.75 Goals 3 Chelsea have scored twenty one goals in their last five home EPL meetings with Villa. The visitors have managed to score eight in reply though so this could be a high scoring encounter at Stamford Bridge. In fact Villa have found the back of the net in six of their last seven meetings with Chelsea and not many EPL sides can say that. Give me the overs here as I sense Villa will score again but Chelsea will prevail in the end. Crystal Palace v Leicester Pick Em Line Goals 2.25 Both teams had surprise wins last time out as they out scored two EPL giants in shoot outs. Palace won 3-2 away to Everton whilst Leicester came from 3-1 back to humiliate Manchester United 5-3. After such confidence boosting and high scoring wins...
Mid Week Report
posted by Todd
We got back after it today, previewing every single one of the games on the Week 4 NFL schedule. The energy from your esteemed hosts may have flatlined a bit but the information definitely didn’t. Feel free to shoot us any comments, questions, or even suggestions on the format while we look to come up with a product with you the loyal listeners in mind. I apologize for some of my audio quality while on the road but the other option was letting Payne go solo on this and pretty sure none of us are quite ready for that yet....
OTL Week 5
posted by Todd
The OTL podcast got weird this week…I mean really weird even by our unusually low expectations for performance. Family matters took the glue KegsNEggs away from us this week meaning the 4 Horsemen were down to the 3 Amigos. Pretty sure Drew Collins was somewhere in the wilderness while I’m in no place to comment given my pathetic run of best bets. Arkansas/Texas A&M, UGA/Tennessee, Washington/Stanford, ACC messes, B1G debacles, ASU/UCLA, and plenty more games that I haven’t listed here will keep you entertained. Listen below, listen on iTunes (where you should totally subscribe and tell others to subscribe) or listen on your Android device. Wherever you listen, we hope you enjoy. See you next week. Cheers. If you’re having trouble viewing the widget click here (feel free to load the widget on your CFB centric sites as well)...
Looking Ahead Week 5
posted by Todd
Take a good look at these lines…they won’t look the same when the market opens for business Sunday night upon completion of Week 4. These numbers are a great tool to identify where oddsmakers needed to make major adjustments based on perception as much as reality All lines courtesy of Westgate Superbook NFL WEEK 5 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2014 VIKINGS PACKERS -8 SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2014 BEARS PANTHERS -3 BROWNS TITANS xxxx RAMS EAGLES -7 FALCONS GIANTS PK BUCS SAINTS -11.5 TEXANS COWBOYS -3 BILLS LIONS -6.5 RAVENS COLTS -3.5 STEELERS -6.5 JAGUARS CARDINALS BRONCOS -7 CHIEFS 49ERS -7 JETS CHARGERS -6.5 BENGALS PATRIOTS -3 -120 MONDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2014 SEAHAWKS -6 REDSKINS...
Week 3 Post Mortem
posted by Todd
As gamblers it’s easy to get caught up in the energy of a game day, hell that’s what most of us live for all fall. The homework’s been done; the hours spent on conference calls, pouring over stats, and searching for angles is in the rear view mirror. Unfortunately tthe active involvement process in a week doesn’t just stop when a game goes final meaning a win or loss gets tacked onto the balance sheet. Over the years I find myself spending more time combing through play by play for the games recently completed to effectively “grade” my wagers. We often get caught in just wins and losses (it’s hard not to, can’t pay bills with losers) while the real merits of a bet actually goes much deeper. This takes on added importance as you look to identify opportunities moving forward. We all know the football season is a marathon, not a sprint and the most dangerous outcome for all of us is to lose site of the forest through the trees. History is doomed to repeat itself if you don’t learn from mistakes, blame my extensive financial background for this thought process. Before an event is dead and buried, an extensive post mortem is always required. As a new weekly feature my goal is to take you through some of my weekly thought process, grading my 5 “public” selections for the week that I’ve elected to use in the supercontest. We’ll see how this week’s exercise goes and potentially tweak the format moving forward. Feel free to email me with questions, concerns, or life queries but I should admit dating advice isn’t really my forte. Typically the criteria I use to grade each play will come from a combination of factors including beating...
Podcast
posted by Todd
What the hell is going on with this Monday Night Football line move?! Fortunately that’s what Payne and I are here for… to help you make sense of the noise before arriving at a final investment on Bears vs Jets. In addition to tonight’s preview we dove into the massive over adjustments in the market after the results of week 3. Little to say there’s some value to be found on this week’s ugly ducklings (this will be a common refrain all fall). The podcast wouldn’t be complete without sharing what we learned from yesterday’s games complete with a quick snapshot of the pretender/contender game regarding some surprisingly fast starts for unusual suspects. Coming soon to itunes (yes, I know we’re slacking)...