Week 7 Advanced Lines Oct10

Week 7 Advanced Lines...

NFL WEEK 7 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2014 JETS PATRIOTS -9.5 SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2014 BENGALS COLTS -2 TITANS REDSKINS xx DOLPHINS BEARS -3 -120 BROWNS -4 JAGUARS SEAHAWKS -7 RAMS PANTHERS PACKERS -7 FALCONS RAVENS -5 VIKINGS BILLS -3.5 SAINTS LIONS -1.5 CHIEFS CHARGERS -5 GIANTS COWBOYS -3.5 CARDINALS xx RAIDERS 49ERS BRONCOS -6 MONDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2014 TEXANS STEELERS -4...

Podcast Oct09

Podcast

It’s Thursday which means one thing…podcast time from Payneinsider and I.  Thanks again for all the great questions that were submitted using the hashtag #AskBetTheBoard.  Remember toss them out at any time and while we can’t get all of them this week doesn’t mean we won’t get to them in the future.  For those looking for the breakdown of the Thursday night game, we saved the best for...

OTL Podcast Oct09

OTL Podcast

Well damn, last weekend’s version of college football Armageddon was all sorts of awesome.  Upheaval across the landscape made for some fantastic viewing, something we can only hope continues this weekend with a few high profile showdowns.  Kudos to the oddsmakers, tight numbers all across the board on the big games but that didn’t stop the gang from offering opinions on each clash of the titans. Grab an adult beverage, your significant other, and small children before finding a nice spot around the fireplace to listen to the sweet sounds of Adam Kramer, Bud Elliott, Drew Collins, and myself get you to the window this weekend.  You also might want to pack a snack, you’ll be here a while. Games covered in detail: Texas/Oklahoma, Indiana/Iowa, TCU/Baylor, Auburn/Mississippi St, Alabama/Arkansas, LSU/Florida, Oregon/UCLA, USC/Arizona, UGA/Missouri, Louisville/Clemson, UNC/Notre Dame, Ole Miss/Texas A&M, PSU/Michingan.  I’m sure there are some I forgot but y’all get the gist. Listen below, listen on  iTunes (where you should totally subscribe and tell others to subscribe) or listen on your Android device. Wherever you listen, we hope you enjoy. See you next week. Cheers. If you’re having trouble viewing the widget click here (feel free to load the widget on your CFB centric sites as...

Make-up of a Champion Oct08

Make-up of a Champion...

NHL futures discussion is best served with a cold glass of beer, preferably something Canadian. The temperature is dropping, the leaves are beginning to change and any remnants of a Canadian summer are beginning to vanish. Soon the tide of snow and cold will cross the border, creeping down into the U.S. bringing with it the NHL and a new season of gambling opportunities. Written by Chris Shoniker It’s time to get ready for that song and dance, Let’s go my friends it’s time to take a chance, We’re back in town, it’s time to get it done, We got nowhere to hide, nowhere to run, It’s been a long time coming, It’s been a long time coming… The Boys are Back- Dropkick Murphys Training camps are done and the regular season is upon us. Over the past few years, the NHL, like the NBA, has seen a drastic influx of talent go out west, leading to two very uneven conferences. However, the NHL is a much more wide open league- 9 different NHL teams have won the cup in the past 11 seasons while 9 different NBA teams have won the championship in the past 35 seasons. So, how then do you differentiate these NHL teams and pick your future? 3 Criteria to look for a) Choose your conference b) Will the team make the playoffs? c) Can that team make a deep enough run in the postseason to give you enough value? Click here for complete futures update from Westgate and cappers worth following on twitter WESTERN CONFERENCE (Division) 2015 ODDS 2014 ODDS O/u Team Points EASTERN CONFERENCE (Division) 2015 ODDS 2014 ODDS O/u Team Points CHI Blackhawks (C) 6/1 6/1 107.5 BOS Bruins (A) 8/1 9/1 107.5 L.A. Kings (P) 7.5/1...

NHL by the Numbers Oct08

NHL by the Numbers

The NHL is no different than any other major sports league when it comes to identifying futures.  Here’s the complete updated list of regular season point totals from the Westgate Superbook for every NHL team headed into the 2014-2015 season. However before we get into that, here are a few NHL betting guys worth following on twitter Pointshaving NoJokeNHL So_Money_Sports Stuckey2 2014-15 NHL REGULAR SEASON POINTS DUCKS 104.5 COYOTES 84.5 BRUINS 107.5 SABRES 64.5 FLAMES 71.5 HURRICANES 79.5 BLACKHAWKS 108.5 AVALANCHE 94.5 BLUE JACKETS 93.5 STARS 96.5 RED WINGS 94.5 OILERS 79.5 PANTHERS 77.5 KINGS 102.5 WILD 99.5 CANADIENS 95.5 PREDATORS 87.5 DEVILS 88.5 ISLANDERS 87.5 RANGERS 95.5 SENATORS 83.5 FLYERS 88.5 PENGUINS 106.5 SHARKS 101.5 BLUES 104.5 LIGHTNING 98.5 MAPLE LEAFS 88.5 CANUCKS 88.5 CAPITALS 91.5 JETS 81.5 2014-2015 STANLEY CUP BLACKHAWKS 6 BRUINS 7 KINGS 8 PENGUINS 8 BLUES 12 WILD 12 DUCKS 10 RANGERS 20 RED WINGS 20 SHARKS 12 CANADIENS 15 AVALANCHE 25 STARS 25 BLUE JACKETS 30 LIGHTNING 14 JETS 100 FLYERS 50 CAPITALS 30 COYOTES 60 SENATORS 60 OILERS 60 MAPLE LEAFS 40 CANUCKS 50 PREDATORS 75 PANTHERS 60 ISLANDERS 60 DEVILS 60 HURRICANES 200 FLAMES 200 SABRES 300 2014-2015 EASTERN CONFERENCE BRUINS 11-4 PENGUINS 7-2 RANGERS 9 RED WINGS 9 CANADIENS 7 BLUE JACKETS 13 LIGHTNING 6 FLYERS 23 CAPITALS 13 SENATORS 28 MAPLE LEAFS 18 PANTHERS 28 ISLANDERS 28 DEVILS 28 HURRICANES 90 SABRES 135 2014-2015 WESTERN CONFERENCE BLACKHAWKS 3 KINGS 4 BLUES 6 WILD 6 DUCKS 5 SHARKS 6 AVALANCHE 13 STARS 13 JETS 50 COYOTES 30 OILERS 30 CANUCKS 25 PREDATORS 38 FLAMES...

#BoxScoreReview Week 6 Oct07

#BoxScoreReview Week 6...

After a 2 week hiatus #BoxsoreReview is back with a vengeance.  For those unfamiliar with the exercise these are the handful of nuggets that you may have missed from a busy weekend of college football.  Remember final scores don’t always tell the full story for what went down meaning a misleading Box Score creates value on teams moving forward. Arizona @ Oregon There was nothing fluke like about Arizona’s upset of Oregon as 21 pt dogs. Arizona stayed committed to the run, averaging less than 4 YPC but running the rock 55 times to soften the interior of the Ducks o-line. The largest deficit Arizona faced all night was 4 points at 2 different junctures. UCF @ Houston UCF only gained 228 yards picking up just 10 first downs en route to upsetting Houston as 3 pt underdogs. As has so often been the case for the Cougars this year they lost the turnover battle 3-1. Starting QB John O’Korn was removed in favor of backup Greg Ward for a large portion of the 2nd half. FAU @ FIU By the looks of a 38-10 final score you’d think 6.5 pt underdog FIU put a whooping on their in-state rivals. However they were out first downed and out gained by Florida Atlantic. They took full advantage of 4 Owls turnovers, using a 24-0 2nd half to win comfortably. San Diego St @ Fresno St San Diego St missed the services of starting QB Quinn Kaehler vs Fresno St. Nick Bawden (2* recruit) made his first start going 9-24 in the passing department but did gain some confidence late before 2 critical interceptions doomed Aztec comeback efforts. Utah St @ BYU BYU’s slim hopes of making the inaugural CFB playoff were dashed by Utah St....

Podcast Oct06

Podcast

Another week in the NFL is almost over…but not until you listen to the Bet the Board Podcast.  Co-host Payneinsider and I broke down tonight’s game between Washington & Seattle (end of pod) and dug deep into how to handle teams like the Jags and Jets ATS struggles.  We learned plenty from the week that was however unless you apply it to future games correctly it doesn’t mean a heck of a lot.  Remember we’ll be back Thursday to preview the upcoming games so tune in then as well....

Reg Season Wins Oct06

Reg Season Wins

The NBA season is almost upon us and of course win total discussion predominates in betting circles.  Win totals, most known for the NFL, are an increasingly popular bet type here in Vegas.  Unfortunately you can’t find them at every book here in town (don’t get me started) but for those headed to the desert you can at Westgate.  Here’s the complete list of updated totals courtesy of the Westgate Superbook as of Monday morning. HAWKS           42.0 CELTICS         26.5 NETS            41.5 HORNETS         44.0 BULLS           55.5 CAVALIERS       57.5 MAVERICKS       49.5 NUGGETS         41.0 PISTONS         36.0 WARRIORS        51.5 ROCKETS         49.5 PACERS          32.5 CLIPPERS        56.0 LAKERS          31.5 GRIZZLIES       47.5 HEAT            45.0 BUCKS           24.5 TIMBERWOLVES    27.5 PELICANS        43.5 KNICKS          40.5 THUNDER         58.0 MAGIC           27.5 76ERS           15.5 SUNS            43.5 TRAILBLAZERS    49.0 KINGS           30.5 SPURS           56.5 RAPTORS         48.0 JAZZ            25.0 WIZARDS         48.5 ** ALL SIDES ARE -110 **** TEAMS MUST PLAY 82 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION ** ** WAGERS DO NOT INCLUDE POST-SEASON GAMES ** ** NO PARLAYS ** ** ALL SIDES ARE -110 ** ** TEAMS MUST PLAY 82 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION ** ** WAGERS DO NOT INCLUDE POST-SEASON GAMES ** ** NO PARLAYS **...

What It Takes

The Westgate SuperContest is the world’s premiere NFL handicapping competition and the 2014 edition has once again generated a record number of entrants. This year’s prize pool comes from the 1,403 entries, representing a 36% increase in sign-ups from last year’s previous record high of 1,034 entries. The payouts have never been more lucrative, but the bar for picking NFL winners has also been raised. Written by Justin Zovas Just how high is the SuperContest’s standard for football handicapping excellence? We can do some math to approximate the wins-needed to secure the juicy top prize of $736,575…before taxes of course. Contestants will make a total of 85 picks over 17 weeks and assuming each selection has a 50% chance of winning, each entrant has an average expectation of 42.5 wins. An entrant’s winning rate is normally distributed around a mean of 42.5 wins with a standard deviation of 4.61 wins. 68% of entrants (≈954 entries) will win between 37.89 and 47.11 games, 95% (≈1333) will win between 33.28 and 51.72 games, and 99.7% (≈1399) will win between 28.67 and 56.33 games. But what about the remaining four contestants that are expected to perform greater than three standard deviations from the mean? Two will be battling for the embarrassing result of last place (no prize pool for this just yet) while the other two will have plenty on the line come week 17. The 2nd place finisher will finish in the 99.93 percentile which is equivalent to winning 57.20 games. In other words, the champion will need to pick winners at a rate better than 67.3% which is equivalent to a benchmark of 57.5 wins. Last year, the runner-up was expected to win 56.79 games which equated to a 66.8% win percentage, or a benchmark...

Let It Ride Oct04

Let It Ride

Every week we try and offer up a fun, but informative, perspective on attacking the biggest college football games of the entire weekend.  Clay Travis and I may come from very different places when it comes to picking games however the name of the game is entertainment and of course profitability.  Here’s the bonus cut of Let It Ride which can be seen weekly on Friday’s as part of FS1 college football preview Countdown to Kickoff....

EPL Round 7 Oct03

EPL Round 7

Another busy weekend across the pond in the ranks of the EPL. We bring in our industry insider to offer his most valuable game nuggets for each fixture on the weekend slate. All analysis courtesy of @UkBettingPro Listen to the podcast here Hull City v Crystal Palace Hull -0.5 and Goal Line 2.25 Last season saw two 1-0 wins for Palace and the way this season’s results have gone a similar result could be on the cards. This match should follow those of past encounters in terms of being a low scoring affair so even at 2.25 on the goal line I will go with the under. Leicester City v Burnley Leicester -0.5 and Goal Line 2.5 Both of these sides were promoted from The Championship during the summer. They have met regularly over the last few seasons and Burnley doesn’t win this fixture, losing to Leicester in 5 of the last 7. However -0.5 line is just a bit too tight for me to support Leicester because I don’t believe they’re suddenly THAT much better than Sean Dyche’s men I will just take a little bit of the under 2.5 goals which cashed in both meetings last season. Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion Liverpool -1.5 and Goal Line of 3 West Brom have won two of their last three trips to Anfield but last season they were blasted 4-1 at Anfield. The Baggies have scored in each of the last five EPL meetings between the two teams. Until this Liverpool team proves to me that post Suarez they can consistently beat sides by at least two clear goals, I will either fade them or pass on the game markets. I like the under on the goal line of three as none of Liverpool’s...

Podcast Oct02

Podcast

It’s Thursday and that means it’s time to preview the upcoming weekend of NFL action.  We didn’t break down every game but shared a few of the prices that will be on the move from now until kickoff.  Thanks to all those that submitted questions using the hashtag #AskBetTheBoard as we did our best to cover them on the air.  For those just interested in the preview of the Thursday night game, we tweaked the format and that will come at the end of the broadcast.  No matter what you play this weekend Best of Luck and we’ll see you at the window....