#BoxScoreReview Oct21

#BoxScoreReview

Boxscores rarely lie…finals do. Here’s what you may have missed from the weekend that was Temple @ Houston Houston used a steady ground game en route to a 31-10 win over Temple. The cougars ran the football 49 times creating a decisive 42:17 to 17:27 time of possession edge. Total plays in the game? 82-49 Cougars benefiting from a +4 turnover differential. USF @ Tulsa USF may have turned their season around against Tulsa. Facing a 27-7 halftime deficit, the Bulls flipped the script in the 2nd half outscoring the Golden Hurricane 31-3. What made the comeback more impressive is they did it without the help of turnovers, covering 52 yards or more on each TD drive. Syracuse @ Wake Forest Syracuse scored 1 offensive touchdown in their 30-7 win over Wake Forest. The Orange used a Pick 6 and a fumble return to create an inflated margin of victory. They outgained Wake 370-170 total offensive output. Baylor @ West Virginia WVU finished their game against Baylor -3 in turnovers but dominated every other category on the stat sheet. The Mountaineers outgained Baylor 456-318, outrushed them 134-95, and had 77 fewer penalty yards. Art Briles team actually racked up 18 penalties resulting in 215 yards…not good. Kansas St @ Oklahoma Oklahoma outgained Kansas St 533-385 but were done in by 2 costly turnovers and special teams gaffes in getting upset by the Wildcats. Trevor Knight was efficient passing the football going 26-32 however his biggest mistake was a poorly thrown out pattern that resulted in a Pick 6. Iowa @ Maryland Maryland’s win over Iowa was a game filled with major scoring runs. The Hawkeyes started the game scoring the first 14 points before Maryland went on a 38-7 spree before Iowa closed the...

Podcast Oct20

Podcast

Another week is in the books (almost) and we’re here to recap what you can use from a gambling perspective going forward.  Aside from the good and pad, Payneinsider and I looked into our crystal balls to talk about which numbers will be on the move this week.  Also the best news of all? We’re finally on itunes!!! Subscribe on itunes Subscribe to the RSS sound cloud feed...

Updated CFB Futures Oct20

Updated CFB Futures

Last weekend offered yet another jolt to the system for the college football playoff. The BigXII’s leading candidates both went down in a blaze of glory and their stumbles actually became TCU’s benefit in the big picture.  Also for the first time this year Florida St is no longer listed as the favorite instead both Ole Miss and Alabama share that distinction at 5-1.  The Seminoles still have the easiest scheduled and inside track into the playoff but their play on the field hasn’t been consistent with a national championship frontrunner.  Georgia, despite some early season struggles, has a home schedule consistent with win and get in…if they can get through Auburn in mid-November.  Either way anything can and will happen the next 6 weeks but in the eyes of oddsmakers the SEC is still king while everyone else just tries to get a seat at the table. Here’s a full list of updated numbers from the Westgate Superbook 2015 COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME AT&T STADIUM– ARLINGTON, TX MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015 FLORIDA ST 7 OREGON 7 ALABAMA 5 AUBURN 10 LSU 300 OKLAHOMA 100 UCLA 75 OHIO ST 10 BAYLOR 25 MICHIGAN ST 7 WISCONSIN 1000 STANFORD 1000 ARIZONA ST 75 MISSOURI 1000 OKLAHOMA ST 1000 OLE MISS 5 GEORGIA 6 USC 60 NOTRE DAME 30 CLEMSON 100 ARIZONA 100 KANSAS ST 25 MISSISSIPPI ST 7 NEBRASKA 50 TCU 15 UTAH 100 DUKE 500 LOUISVILLE 5000 FIELD...

Let It Ride Oct18

Let It Ride

Words can’t quite put into perspective what you’re about to watch…that’s why we have the video for your viewing pleasure to follow or fade....

EPL Notes Oct17

EPL Notes

All notes courtesy of James Kempton Looking for more information on lower division English Football? Click here Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Man City -1.25 and Goal Line of 3 City have conceded in all but two of their EPL games this season so Spurs should have hope they can find the net here. The last six meetings of the teams have all gone over 2.5 goals with only one of those resulting in a Push. City are a far better side than Spurs and I’d take them on the handicap line but will avoid the goals market. Arsenal v Hull City Arsenal -1.25 and Goal Line of 2.75 Arsenal have won five straight meetings of the sides but only one of the six EPL meetings since September 2008 has seen four or more goals.  With Arsenal once again ravaged with injuries I will settle for an unders ticket here as they look to grind out a solid but not spectacular victory. Burnley v West Ham United Pick Em Line and Goal Line of 2.25 Sometimes teams find it difficult to throw off past reputations and I sense West Ham are one such side. They play in a more open and attacking manner than in previous seasons under ‘Big Sam’. Over 2.5 goals is 5-2 in Hammers games and another one saw two goals so I will take the overs trend to continue in this one. It’s too early in the season to be blindlu opposing Burnley on these lines against non elite opposition but the time may not be far away! Crystal Palace v Chelsea Chelsea -1.25 and Goal Line of 2.75 Palace scored in both meetings of the sides last season as they won this meeting at Selhurst Park 1-0 thanks to...

Podcast Oct16

Podcast

We’re right back at it (Payneinsider and me) breaking down Week 7 of the NFL.  Not only did we hit on a few of the key games being played on Sunday but we also answered your questions asked with the hashtag #AskBetTheBoard and broke down the Thursday game in primetime.  For all the loyal listeners thanks for tuning in and if it’s your first time welcome aboard....

Week 8 Advanced Lines Oct16

Week 8 Advanced Lines...

Here’s the complete list of advanced lines for Week 8 of the NFL slate.  These always provide a useful tool in appropriately gauging just how much oddsmakers had to over compensate based on 1 week’s worth of results.  Value is often created as a byproduct of recency bias, scheduling, and situational analysis. NFL WEEK 8 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2014 CHARGERS BRONCOS -6.5 SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2014 LIONS -3.5 FALCONS                   @ LONDON, ENGLAND VIKINGS BUCS PK BEARS PATRIOTS -6.5 RAMS CHIEFS -6 SEAHAWKS -3.5 PANTHERS BILLS JETS PK DOLPHINS -4.5 JAGUARS TEXANS -1.5 TITANS RAVENS BENGALS -3.5 EAGLES CARDINALS -2.5 COLTS -1 STEELERS RAIDERS BROWNS -7 PACKERS SAINTS PK MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2014 REDSKINS COWBOYS...

This Week in Radio Oct15

This Week in Radio

Todd Fuhrman makes his weekly visit to the show, giving tips on NFL and college football games for this weekend, inclduing the Bears-Dolphins game as well as whether to bet on the winless Jaguars or not. Todd also talks about how much of a long-shot the Royals were to be in the situation they’re in. Click here to listen It’s not a week in radio without a trip to Nashville to shoot the shit with the 3HL gang.  Rapid fire NFL, college football, and even some Talladega stuff snuck into this week’s dialogue....

OTL Podcast Oct15

OTL Podcast

I won’t write elaborate intros or admonish the members of the team for picks gone bad but I will say if you’re tuning in this week hoping to hear the entire gang (Adam Kramer, Bud Elliott, Drew Collins, and myself you’ll be disappointed. Bud was a bit under the weather but we came up with more creative reasons to slander his hard earned reputation Games covered in detail (not in this order):  Baylor/WVU, UGA/Arkansas, Stanford/ASU, UW/Oregon, UCLA/Cal, Texas A&M/Alabama, and a handful of other high profile match-ups but I’m too lazy to list them Listen below, listen on  iTunes (where you should totally subscribe and tell others to subscribe) or listen on your Android device. Wherever you listen, we hope you enjoy. See you next week....

#BoxScoreReview Week 7 Oct14

#BoxScoreReview Week 7...

The deeper you get into the season the more valuable statistical analysis becomes.  Gone are the outliers against Directional State U and the 42 bye weeks creating schedule imbalance (unless of course you’re the BigXII).  Final scores only share a Cliffs Notes version of what transpired on the field and can lead to poor choices moving forward.  Here’s what you may have missed hidden in the box scores from Week 7’s college football slate. Oklahoma vs Texas Oklahoma may have beaten Texas in their annual rivalry game but it wasn’t because of anything their offense did. The Sooners picked up 11 first downs and were 1-11 on 3rd down. Trevor Knight struggled for the 2nd straight week, this time going 12-20 but only for 129 yards. Texas outrushed, outpassed, and outplayed OU but like so many games this season the Horns were unable to turn those results into a victory. Michigan St @ Purdue Michigan St had just shy of a 200 yard advantage against Purdue on Saturday. However they needed a late TD for insurance against a pesky Boilermaker side. Northwestern @ Minnesota Northwestern couldn’t pick up their 3rd upset in as many weeks despite doubling up the Gophers in first downs and accumulating a +119 yard offensive advantage. The Wildcats also ran 30 more plays on offense than their opponent.  The 100 yard Minnesota kickoff return is what eventually made the difference in the final score. Tulsa @ Temple Tulsa and Temple combined to go 7-30 on 3rd down. The problem for under bettors is they were doomed by a 99 yard TD drive at the end of the first half that not only cooked 1st half under tickets but also full game with the final score just sneaking over by the...

Podcast Oct13

Podcast

This weekend was anything but ideal for the professionals.  I’ll be the first to tell you I took it on the chin with the best of them but that won’t keep a good man down…well what it does to me remains to be seen.  However that doesn’t mean you can’t learn from a full slate of games and apply it early to what will unfold in coming weeks.  As always Payneinsider keeps me grounded as we look back on the week that was and preview the MNF game between the Rams & 49ers....

Then & Now Oct13

Then & Now

It doesn’t take much to jostle the college football landscape the deeper we get into the season.  As it stands right now only 17 schools in the entire country have odds listed at 100-1 or shorter to win the national championship.  In all reality, 12 teams (according to oddsmakers) have a legitimate chance to be crowned the inaugural champion of the college football playoff.  Unlike the BCS era 1 loss hasn’t crippled teams but at the same time it doesn’t allow the conscientious shopper to pick off a grossly undervalued team without an unblemished record, a needle in the haystack if you will.  Here’s a snapshot of how the landscape has changed from opening weekend compared to now in regards to future odds. All prices courtesy of Westgate Superbook Updated 10/13 Season Opener Current FSU 3 5 Oklahoma 7 7 Mississippi St 100 7 Michigan St 25 7 Alabama 5 7 Ole Miss 50 8 Oregon 6 10 Ohio St 40 10 Georgia 18 10 Auburn 15 10 Notre Dame 100 12 Baylor 20 12 Kansas St 100 50 TCU 100 50 Oklahoma St 200 60 Nebraska 100 60 USC 30 75 UCLA 10 100 Stanford 50 100 Arizona 200 100 Iowa 100 200 LSU 20 300 Field 75 300 Clemson 75 300 Arizona St 100 300 Washington 75 500 Utah 1000 500 Wisconsin 30 1000 Texas A&M 100 1000 Oregon St 500 1000 Missouri 100 1000 Georgia Tech 500 1000 Florida 60 1000 Duke 1000 1000 Virginia Tech 200 5000 Tennessee 200 5000 Louisville 300 5000 South Carolina 30 9999 Miami FL 200 9999 BYU 300...