UFC 185 Texas Tapout: Pettis vs. Dos Anjos Welcome fight Enthusiast to UFC 185. Let’s open by utilizing a quote from Mr. Warren Buffet displayed on the Gamblou.com webpage… Written by Gamblou “Price is what you pay, Value is what you get.” We display this wisdom simply because the basis for our positions in any sporting endeavor is gaming value. Many would say (as we once did) that if you feel like you know the winner of any particular event then grab it no matter the price. We disagree with that philosophy. In the UFC we feel our true competition is with the men setting the lines who over the last year or so have become much more difficult to contend with. We set our own numbers for each match then test ourselves by comparing our numbers with the opening lines. It is in this competition (and believe me it is a true test) that we derive the foundation for our ‘opinions’. It is also our belief (our intent is not to criticize) that the UFC wagering populous is inexperienced, lacking in savvy and light on gaming acumen. It’s with a ‘gut feel’ for what we believe the true odds should be in any particular fight coupled with the value we may obtain from enhanced prices based on line movements that we publicize our gaming releases. Pure gaming value is our single goal so with that said let’s just mention two fights we discussed earlier in the week in discussions with professional MMA journalists. Pacheco -125 vs. de Randame +105 This was a target fight when we had the opportunity to share our thoughts on The Fight Corner Thursday AM with Ms. Heidi Fang. At the time de Randame was +135 and it was...

It’s that time of the week…football Friday and James Kempton is back with his full card analysis for this weekend’s EPL action Crystal Palace v QPR Crystal Palace -0.75 and 2.25 goals This is Rangers’ third big London derby in the last ten days and in the previous two they have put huge efforts in that have gone unrewarded. Pardew has this Palace team performing consistently and that should be enough to get all three points. On this line though all the value is with QPR as a point would not be the end of the world for the home team. Arsenal v West Ham United Arsenal -1.25 and 2.75 goals The Gunners are doing just enough to win and cover at present whilst the Hammers are going nowhere. Arsenal will win and at set pieces, if they get any, West Ham should trouble the home backline. Give me the Gunners and overs on the goal line. Leicester City v Hull City Leicester -0.25 and 2.25 goals This is Leicester’s last stand as I feel they have to win this game to stand any chance of staying up. Hull are dreadful but eight points in their last five games have potentially saved their season. On this match line though I sense the away team can frustrate so I lean towards the away team and unders on the goal line. Sunderland v Aston Villa Sunderland -0.25 and 2 goals By kick off could this goal line be at just 1.75 goals? Sunderland have won just three of their last fourteen games at home to lower half opposition. Tentative lean, despite Terrible Tim in charge, to the away team and under 2 goals. West Bromwich Albion v Stoke City West Brom -0.25 and 2 goals The...

I wanted to take this chance to introduce to all of you one of our newest contributors to the site. Gamblou has written extensively on UFC gambling around the net for a while now and when he approached me about contributing to the site I couldn’t say no.  Rather than having me paraphrase his philosophies he wanted to write an introductory letter of sorts sharing his philosophies on betting MMA. Welcome fight Enthusiasts to GambLou.com and our new shared access with ToddsTakes.com. We want to thank Todd for allowing us to post our UFC  insight on his outstanding gaming website.   We are honored to be contributors. We’ll be posting all of our UFC blogs (as well as select other gaming intelligence) as early as Saturday March 14th for UFC 185. We would like to set any new readers up with the basic blueprint by which we at GambLou.com operate so there may be as much understanding of our methods as possible before we dive headfirst into this exciting endeavor. *The single point of focus of GambLou.com is Profitable Sports Gaming. Depositing profit after each week’s opinions is our single point of empahsis for we conduct our gaming strictly as a business. The fulcrums to Profitable Sports Gaming are threefold: dynamic Due Diligence; supreme Selectivity, and precision Money Management. Any profitable business thriving today has had to conduct appropriate research, remain selective in its approach to the market it competes in and account regularly for every penny of investment, labor and loss; We are no different. *Every position we share is something we (have played)ourselves! This is most important for what we attempt to do is display how to become apt at running one’s own bankroll as a business. Our career in Profitable Sports Gaming...

We’ve all been there before; sitting with our buddies beyond more than a few drinks deep trying to have serious sports debates. Topics start on the greatest teams of all time eventually deteriorating to dialogue about the single worst beat experienced during gambling careers…as if there’s a lifetime achievement award for winning this category. Normally nothing productive comes from the discussion because well the crux of arguments are incoherent and the brainstorms you thought were airtight are anything but airtight the next morning when sobriety sets in.   However, I remain steadfast in believing my buddies and I came up with a new way to positively impact NFL season long gambling adding a simple wrinkle to regular season wins: win totals just for divisional games. Hear me out on this before suggesting I give up drinking in my limited free time (or drink myself smart somehow). We’ve all seen how popular NFL win total betting has become within the last few years. Why not take it one step further adding a win total within the win total for the most important games of the season, especially those fans typically live and die with all fall. Even if your team stinks, those 6 divisional games mean the world for bragging rights and franchise confidence headed into next season. So what if you lose a meaningless inter-conference game against a franchise you play once every 8 years, the only 6 that matter for this win total are those against your fiercest rivals. We’ve all been there before, dead and buried with a reg season win total that haunts us by week 9. However, this new option potentially keeps you alive or interested all the way through week 17. I cite the Atlanta Falcons as a prime example...

Last night Brent Musberger took his love of gambling to another stratopshere.  Given the circus that took place at Hilton from a betting perspective we can’t really fault him for going the extra mile not once, not twice, but 3 times with references to the pointspread in the final minute.  Fran Fraschila even got into the act which took this epic minute of television to the next level. Special thanks to Rob Perez (follow him on twitter @World_Wide_Wob) for putting these vines...

The table continues to heat up as we rapidly approach the final quarter of the season.  James Kempton is back to break down all the mid week fixtures with gambling intel to help you make some money.  Also tune into the weekly EPL podcast co-hosted by James and Pete Nordsted Aston Villa v West Brom PICK & Goals 2 There’s a lot of pressure on the home team for this local derby and it’ll be a red hot atmosphere at Villa Park. I lean towards the away team on the match market as tactically Sherwood v Pulis is a mismatch of epic proportions. Hull v Sunderland  Hull -0.25 Goals 2.25 When analysing this game the old saying of “if this game was played in my back garden, I’d close the curtains” springs to mind. Another nervous match in store here and on this goal line I will take the under 2.25 goals rather than look to the match market. Southampton v C Palace Soton -0.75 Goals 2.25 All the pundits are yet again saying Southampton’s bubble has burst. The usual rubbish is being spouted but the truth is that the Saints do not concede more than one goal in these spots against Palace type opposition. Factor that in to your betting thoughts and you won’t go too far wrong but this particular match is one to swerve for me. Man City v Leicester City -1.75 Goals 3 Man City is struggling to find their form and in the second half against Liverpool on Sunday they were completely dominated at Anfield. Leicester obliged last time out at Everton for us by securing a draw but I see a two goal margin of defeat as the best they can hope for at the Etihad. Newcastle v...

March is a HUGE month in Vegas when it comes to sports.  Most fans know about the influx of tourists headed here for the NCAA tourney’s opening weekend but with the addition of 373 conference tournaments (or so it feels like) the hoops energy cranks up even sooner.  However, the real start of the March sports calendar gets into high gear this weekend when NASCAR invades Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Xfinity race on Saturday and the Cup race on Sunday.  The passionate fans arrival isn’t lost on bookmakers who usually try to throw up a few more betting options to accommodate the increased betting handle.  Influx of recreational bettors also creates opportunities for certain sports books to inflate their hold and capitalize on those less conscientious shoppers.  Here’s a look at the opening prices hung at MGM/Mirage compared to the numbers used at Westgate Superbook. Dale Jr fans will be the first to notice that shopping around this weekend will benefit them as much as anyone.  I would include Danica believers on this list because they’ll see massive price disparities but I can’t really condone betting the 10 as a worthwhile investment. Driver LVH MGM/Mirage Harvick 9-2 4 Johnson 6 7 Gordon 7 7 Earnhardt 8 9-2 Keselowski 8 6 Logano 8 6 Kenseth 8 10 Edwards 10 10 Kahne 12 15 Hamlin 15 12 Larson 25 12 Newman 30 30 McMurray 40 20 Stewart 40 20 Bowyer 40 30 Ragan 40 30 Truex 40 50 Vickers 60 75 Menard 60 50 Dillon 100 50 Biffle 100 30 Smith 100 50 Almendinger 200 100 Almirola 200 85 Patrick 300 50 Bayne 300 75 Stenhouse 300 75 Hornish 300 85 Mears 500 85 Field 300 30 Whitt N/A 150 Guaghan N/A 200 Hold...

He’s back with a high level look of the weekend’s EPL fixtures; snapshot gambling analysis from the one and only James Kempton. West Ham United v Crystal Palace West Ham -0.5 and 2.25 goals Both sides will feel hard done to repeat the results they gained in London derbies last weekend. Trust Big Sam and his men on this half goal line to deliver the goods for a Hammers victory. Burnley v Swansea City Pk and 2.25 goals At this stage of the season churning out points is the name of the game for Burnley. I can’t back Swansea in these spots to win the game but they have lost just one of five away games this season to sides in the bottom half of the table. Give me the draw and I like unders on the goal line. Manchester United v Sunderland Manchester United -1.25 and 2.5 goals How will Poyet set his side up for this one? At a guess I’d say defensively! An early goal could open the flood gates but this United team has struggled to break teams down of late. I lean towards the home team on the match market and the goal markets also appear tough to figure. Newcastle United v Aston Villa Newcastle -0.5 and 2.25 goals A game between two sides in free fall and Villa will see this as an excellent opportunity to grab all three points. All the value is with the away team but it’s a brave man who backs them. Especially when Newcastle are focused on gaining a win that would all but secure their Premiership status. Stoke City v Hull City Stoke -0.5 and 2.25 goals Seven points from their last three games have lifted Hull out of the drop zone...

Seeking value is what we’re always after as sports bettors.  There’s a reason the professionals don’t care about the names on the front or back of jerseys and look to bet purely on what their numbers tell them.  Isolating the right time to bet on, pass, or bet against certain teams is critical to long term success because oddsmakers can’t always quantify situational analysis in a betting number.  I was taught a college basketball betting rule when I first started in this business and really believe it will always withstand the test of time. 5-20-5 Assuming a 30 game sample size for an average college basketball team; teams will play 5 games above their head (bet on), hold true to their actual power rating for 20 (pass those games), and below their capabilities for 5 (bet against).  If you recognize these scheduling quirks when they present themselves throughout the season you give yourself a great opportunity to optimize value and gain an edge on the bookmaker’s numbers that may not incorporate valuable handicapping intangibles.  There may only be a few short weeks left in the college basketball season but with so many teams vying for conference titles, conf tourney byes, and bolstered resumes for the committee use every angle possible to identify that hidden edge....

There are a handful of talents in the NBA that can force oddsmakers to overhaul their futures odds.  Last night when Derek Rose went down with a torn meniscus yet again the entire oddsboard went into upheaval.  Here are the current numbers from the Westgate Superbook as we head down the home stretch of the NBA regular season. HEAT 300THUNDER 9-2SPURS 10CLIPPERS 14PACERS 300BULLS 20WARRIORS 4ROCKETS 30BLAZERS 40WIZARDS 60NETS 1000GRIZZLIES 12MAVERICKS 30NUGGETS 9999RAPTORS 20KNICKS xxxWOLVES xxxxPELICANS 500LAKERS xxxxCELTICS 1000CAVALIERS 5-2SUNS 300HORNETS 500HAWKS 5JAZZ 9999KINGS 9999PISTONS 1000MAGIC 999976ERS xxxxBUCKS 200ODDS TO WIN 2014-2015 EASTERN CONFERENCE HEAT 150 PACERS 150 BULLS 8 WIZARDS 25 NETS 500 RAPTORS 8 KNICKS xxxx CELTICS 500 CAVALIERS 2-3 HORNETS 250 HAWKS 9-5 PISTONS 500 MAGIC 5000 76ERS xxxx BUCKS 100 ODDS TO WIN 2014-2015 WESTERN CONFERENCE THUNDER 9-4 SPURS 5 CLIPPERS 7 WARRIORS 2 ROCKETS 15 BLAZERS 20 GRIZZLIES 6 MAVERICKS 15 NUGGETS 5000 WOLVES xxxx PELICANS 250 LAKERS xxxx SUNS 150 JAZZ 5000 KINGS 5000...

Last night’s UFC event on Fox Sports 1 created a betting phenomenon not often see in the pugilistic arts these days; a card filled with live underdogs. Normally this spells disaster for UFC bettors accustomed to identifying a few favorites worth parlaying for what they deem to be a +EV investment.  However last night one bettor at Bet Online took a very different approach to getting an action fix instead of watching the Oscars; he elected to parlay 8 underdogs while risking $2.  Typically a bet of this nature keeps you engaged through one fight, maybe 2, but rarely will it leave you glued to the edge of your seat until the bitter end. Little did anyone know at the time such a small investment would yield a rather large pay day.  When the dust settled on UFC Fight Night 61 in Porto Alegro, Brazil the bettor who shall remain nameless turned his small wager into a $64,616.08 pay day.  At least he was smart and hedged a bit of his potential windfall going into the Frank Mir match to close out the evening. Technically @ToddFuhrman he actually won just $64,613.53 b/c he hedged the last fight (Big Foot) $2,55 to win $1. True story. — Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) February 23, 2015 For those reading this story they know my feelings (along with those of other long time bettors) that parlays are a long term losing proposition. Every now and again we’ll hear success stories of a lucky punter catching lightning in a bottle. I can tell you one thing after last night’s results there’s a lucky UFC bettor out there that won’t soon forget February 22, 2015 as long as he...

Sunday marks the start of the NASCAR season.  Sure we saw the Duels on Thursday and the Shootout last weekend but those are merely warm-ups for the great American race.  For those new to betting NASCAR super speedways (Daytona and Talladega) are damn near impossible to handicap given the plate racing we’ll see.  Typically bettors that thrive on the autos markets play conservatively as a result.  However for entertainment purposes it never hurts to have a few dogs in the fight and we previewed the race with the help of a valuable prop. Here are updated odds for the Daytona 500 courtesy of 5Dimes. It’s interesting to see the shift in prices on the 88, 48, and 20 given their “wins” to start the year. Dale Earnhardt Jr   +675 Jimmie Johnson   +850 Matt Kenseth   +900 Kevin Harvick   +1100 Jeff Gordon   +1100 Kyle Busch   +1350 Denny Hamlin   +1400 Brad Keselowski   +1600 Joey Logano   +1650 Carl Edwards   +1650 Tony Stewart   +1900 Jamie McMurray   +2300 Kurt Busch   +2600 Kyle Larson   +3000 Kasey Kahne   +3000 Clint Bowyer   +3200 Ryan Newman   +4400 Greg Biffle   +4400 Martin Truex Jr   +4400 Ricky Stenhouse   +5500 Aric Almirola   +5500 Ryan Blaney   +5500 Paul Menard   +5500 Trevor Bayne   +5500 Austin Dillon   +6600 Michael Waltrip   +6600 Danica Patrick   +6600 AJ Allmendinger   +8000 Sam Hornish Jr   +8500 David Ragan   +11500 Along with picking the outright winner, here are a few of the prop bets available (courtesy of Westgate Superbook) WINNING CAR NUMBER WILL BE: 1-19              -140 20-98             +120 WINNING CAR NUMBER WILL BE: ODD               +250 EVEN              -300 TOTAL CAUTIONS: OVER         7.5  -110 UNDER        7.5  -110 **(At least 200 laps must be completed for action) WINNING MANUFACTURER: CHEVY             -140 FORD              +500...